NationStates Jolt Archive


Is there a good chance of a new World War occuring in the next 20-40 years?

The PeoplesFreedom
24-04-2007, 22:29
Is there? Let's look at some things that have a good chance of leading to a world war.
1. Global warming causes resources to run dangerously low, and causes chaos in Asia, Africa, and South America, as well as areas in NA and Europe. With resources low, refugees clog Europe and the U.S. causing them to nearly run out of resources. After a while, it gets so bad that a war breaks out over the world's last remaining resources.
2. An Invasion of Taiwan by China causes a war between them and the U.S.
3. The War on terror goes south, as more countries fall to the terrorists. Eventually a nuke or some other weapon is detonated in the U.S. or Europe cause a chain of events that leads to a war.

Of all these, number one is most plasubile and already seems likely. According to studies, oil will remain the number one fuel well into the century, fueling the global warming. There was also a recent report in which United States Generals and admirals that warned against this possibility. They say that there will be mass chaos and more terror. They also state that with the millions of refugees, resources will run out. They say it will be a similar effect to that on China, which is running out of water. They say that the U.S. may make a strike into the Middle East to secure oil, or China might do the same. When you really think of the world running out, it does seem like the nations would fight over the last scraps.

Finally, do you think a new world war would be resolved conventionally, or will the nations obliterate each other with nukes?
Zarakon
24-04-2007, 22:34
Well, let's consider global warming...


Dude...


POST APOCALYPTIC WWIII!

It'll be like Dark Sun only cooler.

:p
The PeoplesFreedom
24-04-2007, 22:35
Well, let's consider global warming...


Dude...


POST APOCALYPTIC WWIII!

It'll be like Dark Sun only cooler.

:p

Lol, a mixture of tanks, guns, and swords eh? And CO2 powered rock-flinging projectiles.
Desperate Measures
24-04-2007, 22:37
Nukes will be the way most of us will go out in a world war. Those who remain will be forced to throw radiated twinkies and cockroaches at each other.
Desperate Measures
24-04-2007, 22:38
Didn't you accidentally post this in the America Not Founded on Christianity thread?

Also, I have no idea, but if the Mayan's are right, we're fucked around 2012 anyway.

The Mayans are always right when it comes to predicting the future. Well... except for their own.
The PeoplesFreedom
24-04-2007, 22:38
Didn't you accidentally post this in the America Not Founded on Christianity thread?

Also, I have no idea, but if the Mayan's are right, we're fucked around 2012 anyway.

Lol, I did, and quickly deleted it. Probably one of the most idiotic things I did.
Zarakon
24-04-2007, 22:38
Lol, a mixture of tanks, guns, and swords eh? And CO2 powered rock-flinging projectiles.


Let's add some Rifts as well.

I got dibs on playing a Dragon King Glitter Boy.
Zarakon
24-04-2007, 22:39
Didn't you accidentally post this in the America Not Founded on Christianity thread?


Jolt does that sometimes.
Deus Malum
24-04-2007, 22:40
Didn't you accidentally post this in the America Not Founded on Christianity thread?

Also, I have no idea, but if the Mayan's are right, we're fucked around 2012 anyway.
The PeoplesFreedom
24-04-2007, 22:40
And while I love discussing Mayans and crazy weapons, this was meant to be a serious thread :p
Vetalia
24-04-2007, 22:49
No. Technological advancement will not only address many of our resource problems, but also expansion in to space and undersea will tap significant amounts of raw materials previously inaccessible. Extreme poverty will become a thing of the past, life expectancy, health, and quality of life will increase without bound, and we will be capable of doing things we only dream of now. Given that all of these things are happening now, with our present problems, future developments will ensure that they continue unhindered.

So, pretty much all of the things that could cause another war will no longer be significant problems. The longest period of international peace and economic expansion in our history will continue unhindered. Things are going to get a lot better, and will continue to get better.
The PeoplesFreedom
24-04-2007, 22:51
No. Technological advancement will not only address many of our resource problems, but also expansion in to space and undersea will tap significant amounts of raw materials previously inaccessible. Extreme poverty will become a thing of the past, life expectancy, health, and quality of life will increase without bound, and we will be capable of doing things we only dream of now.

So, pretty much all of the things that could cause another war will no longer be significant problems. The longest period of international peace and economic expansion in our history will continue unhindered.

What say you to the critics who believe that global warming is irreversible and that oil will remain the number one fuel for sometime, leading to the possibility discussed in sceneriao one?
Vetalia
24-04-2007, 22:56
What say you to the critics who believe that global warming is irreversible and that oil will remain the number one fuel for sometime, leading to the possibility discussed in sceneriao one?

Oil will be the fuel for a while, but we're already developing alternatives to it that are better for the environment and more abundant than it. And global warming may be irreversible, but that doesn't mean our effect on it can't be controlled, nor does it mean we can't take steps to offset its effects. Even so, the direction of global warming, ex human effects, is not known for sure. There are many possible directions it could take and some possible ways to offset it that will be available in the near future.

Really, the problem isn't so much the warming but the fact that the places it will hit are not prepared to deal with it. They don't have the kind of agricultural productivity or water-management skills to contain desertification or manage their water resources efficiently. That's the main problem.
Zarakon
24-04-2007, 22:58
And while I love discussing Mayans and crazy weapons, this was meant to be a serious thread :p

Okay then, let's start a thread about that.
Desperate Measures
24-04-2007, 22:58
Oil will be the fuel for a while, but we're already developing alternatives to it that are better for the environment and more abundant than it. And global warming may be irreversible, but that doesn't mean our effect on it can't be controlled, nor does it mean we can't take steps to offset its effects. Even so, the direction of global warming, ex human effects, is not known for sure. There are many possible directions it could take and some possible ways to offset it that will be available in the near future.

Really, the problem isn't so much the warming but the fact that the places it will hit are not prepared to deal with it. They don't have the kind of agricultural productivity or water-management skills to contain desertification or manage their water resources efficiently. That's the main problem.

I think the depressiveness of this post needs to be offset:
http://dogoftheday.com/archive/2005/February/11.jpg
Lunatic Goofballs
24-04-2007, 23:01
The next world war will be a prank war. I'm already stockpiling itching powder and other supplies. :)
Desperate Measures
24-04-2007, 23:03
The next world war will be a prank war. I'm already stockpiling itching powder and other supplies. :)

Cream pies and seltzer bottles?
Zarakon
24-04-2007, 23:08
Cream pies and seltzer bottles?

I hear Iran has the Joy Buzzer.
Desperate Measures
24-04-2007, 23:25
I hear Iran has the Joy Buzzer.

But they plan to only use it for joy and not to buzz.
Siap
24-04-2007, 23:31
3. The War on terror goes south, as more countries fall to the terrorists. Eventually a nuke or some other weapon is detonated in the U.S. or Europe cause a chain of events that leads to a war.

More countries fall to the 'terrorists'? The notion that the 'terrorists' are an organized cohesive enemy and the subsequent witch hunt it created is more likely to lead to global war than the actual terrorist organizations that exist today.
Relyc
24-04-2007, 23:35
Oil will be the fuel for a while, but we're already developing alternatives to it that are better for the environment and more abundant than it. And global warming may be irreversible, but that doesn't mean our effect on it can't be controlled, nor does it mean we can't take steps to offset its effects. Even so, the direction of global warming, ex human effects, is not known for sure. There are many possible directions it could take and some possible ways to offset it that will be available in the near future.

Really, the problem isn't so much the warming but the fact that the places it will hit are not prepared to deal with it. They don't have the kind of agricultural productivity or water-management skills to contain desertification or manage their water resources efficiently. That's the main problem.

Im a political optimist myself, but even I think that is far too much to hope for.
SimNewtonia
25-04-2007, 00:11
20-40 years?

Heck, I expect it within the next ten.

:(
Dododecapod
25-04-2007, 00:47
The Resource wars, start between 2020 and 2030, end ???

Everybody vs. Everybody else. Winners get to continue as a technological civilization, losers go back to 1800s.
Flatus Minor
25-04-2007, 00:58
I think the depressiveness of this post needs to be offset:
http://dogoftheday.com/archive/2005/February/11.jpg

http://www.flickr.com/photos/buro9/298997339/in/set-72157594379214637/
Nova Polska Prime
25-04-2007, 01:08
I seriously doubt it. But before I respond to anything else, the Mayanologist in me has to clarify this: 2012 is the ending of an age and the beginning of a new one. It is NOT the end of the world, despite what Jimmy McHalfbake from the gas station says.

*Ahem* Anyways, WWIII isn't a probability in the near future. First of all, though global warming may lead to desertification at the fringes of the desert regions, it also opens other land (Greenland) for Farming on a larger scale. The Material resources of the world are unaffected, and the average time until the world reaches an oil peak is about 20 years. Doesn't mean the oil is gone, just past the halfway mark. And, as already said, we're already developing more and better fuels to take up slack (Hell, Iceland runs on Hydrogen.)

Second, I doubt that China want's to risk (Indeed, provoke) Open Nuclear war with the U.S.
Which is exactly what would happen if they attacked Taiwan.

Basically, I'm not worried. If a meteor is hurtling towards Earth, then I'll worry.
Good Lifes
25-04-2007, 03:05
I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet.

All it would take is a couple incompetent world leaders with the charisma to take their nations to war. The US has shown that it is capable of electing a blood thirsty zealot. All it would take is one more on the opposite side of the divide. Thank goodness China and Russia have a better way of selecting leaders.
Marrakech II
25-04-2007, 04:38
I think the depressiveness of this post needs to be offset:
http://dogoftheday.com/archive/2005/February/11.jpg

This puppy looks sad. Kind of like he just learned that an ICBM is about to turn him into radioactive dust.
SimNewtonia
25-04-2007, 09:12
I seriously doubt it. But before I respond to anything else, the Mayanologist in me has to clarify this: 2012 is the ending of an age and the beginning of a new one. It is NOT the end of the world, despite what Jimmy McHalfbake from the gas station says.

*Ahem* Anyways, WWIII isn't a probability in the near future. First of all, though global warming may lead to desertification at the fringes of the desert regions, it also opens other land (Greenland) for Farming on a larger scale. The Material resources of the world are unaffected, and the average time until the world reaches an oil peak is about 20 years. Doesn't mean the oil is gone, just past the halfway mark. And, as already said, we're already developing more and better fuels to take up slack (Hell, Iceland runs on Hydrogen.)

Second, I doubt that China want's to risk (Indeed, provoke) Open Nuclear war with the U.S.
Which is exactly what would happen if they attacked Taiwan.

Basically, I'm not worried. If a meteor is hurtling towards Earth, then I'll worry.

I hate to break it to you, but it's increasingly looking like oil production may have peaked. And if that's the case, our fate is effectively sealed ('twould take probably 20 years to retrofit our economies).

And at least you understand that it's not "oil's running out".

But a decline is just as likely to start a Greater Depression.
Vetalia
25-04-2007, 09:17
I hate to break it to you, but it's increasingly looking like oil production may have peaked. And if that's the case, our fate is effectively sealed ('twould take probably 20 years to retrofit our economies).

Eh, I doubt it; 10 years, maybe, but not 20. There's the technology available; it would be possible to retrofit them very quickly once the market supports them. If the demand is there, the market can adjust very quickly; we did it successfully in the 1970's, and we can do it far more easily now. The only problem is that oil is nowhere near expensive enough to cause demand destruction...we'd probably need $100/bbl or more for that.

But a decline is just as likely to start a Greater Depression.

More likely a Greater Stagflation; not that that's a good thing, but it's no Great Depression.
Cameroi
25-04-2007, 10:57
there certainly are interests doing their damdest to start one, but i think the more real and present danger is what we are doing to the environment, whether one occurs or not.

i don't think it would be a good idea to have one.

anyone can destroy. i honestly seriously don't consider doing so anything to brag about.

and until the most dominant forces learn how to do anything else, they will continue to not be either.

when people start supporting building and rebuilding infrastructure in ways that are environmentaly harmonious, and not just as a way and excuse to rip each other off, i think then we'll have something we can be proud of.

and i'm sorry, but i don't really feel that i can be until.

there are a lot of people who are not so immaginationless and board as to want to go arround killing each other.

a hell of a lot of them have already been needlessly slaughtered in the nearly one sided war against anything that doesn't kiss the ass of little green pieces of paper that we've got going on now.

i think there already is a world war: the united states against everybody else, against everything that's worth a dam that anyone, even itself, ever had. i think the rest of the world, if it hasn't already done so, and we in the u.s. just arn't hearing about it, for obvious reasons, needs to get togather and somehow put a stop to this.

=^^=
.../\...
Atopiana
25-04-2007, 15:36
The longest period of international peace and economic expansion in our history will continue unhindered.

What, do these places not count as war or economic disaster zones:

Iraq, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Congo, Zimbabwe, Columbia, Burma, Ossetia, etcetera etcetera.

:p
Carnivorous Lickers
25-04-2007, 17:08
Is there? Let's look at some things that have a good chance of leading to a world war.
1. Global warming causes resources to run dangerously low, and causes chaos in Asia, Africa, and South America, as well as areas in NA and Europe. With resources low, refugees clog Europe and the U.S. causing them to nearly run out of resources. After a while, it gets so bad that a war breaks out over the world's last remaining resources.
2. An Invasion of Taiwan by China causes a war between them and the U.S.
3. The War on terror goes south, as more countries fall to the terrorists. Eventually a nuke or some other weapon is detonated in the U.S. or Europe cause a chain of events that leads to a war.

Of all these, number one is most plasubile and already seems likely. According to studies, oil will remain the number one fuel well into the century, fueling the global warming. There was also a recent report in which United States Generals and admirals that warned against this possibility. They say that there will be mass chaos and more terror. They also state that with the millions of refugees, resources will run out. They say it will be a similar effect to that on China, which is running out of water. They say that the U.S. may make a strike into the Middle East to secure oil, or China might do the same. When you really think of the world running out, it does seem like the nations would fight over the last scraps.

Finally, do you think a new world war would be resolved conventionally, or will the nations obliterate each other with nukes?

I think there isa good chance, but I really,really hope there isnt.
Andaluciae
25-04-2007, 17:22
US-PRC naval engagement in the Western Pacific, followed by blockade and strategic bombing campaign of PRC by US. Pre-emptive strikes against the PRC nuclear arsenal result in low likelihood of exchange of strategic nuclear weapons.
The-Low-Countries
25-04-2007, 18:16
Why does everyone assume there will be a WW over recources, there are more nations then just the USA, PRC and India. Eu nations, Brazil and many others are actually working to be 0-reliant on oil before it runs out. So :P You guys go have your world war while the smart ones don't need to fight it :P
Andaluciae
25-04-2007, 18:16
Why does everyone assume there will be a WW over recources, there are more nations then just the USA, PRC and India. Eu nations, Brazil and many others are actually working to be 0-reliant on oil before it runs out. So :P You guys go have your world war while the smart ones don't need to fight it :P

US, PRC and India are going to be the big players in the middle of this century.

The EU isn't a country, rather a collection of independent states, Brazil has too little population and Russia has more problems than I can count.
The-Low-Countries
25-04-2007, 18:24
The EU isn't a country, rather a collection of independent states

*cough* Brussels has just asmuch authority over the EU nations as Washington has over Arizona for example *cough*
The-Low-Countries
25-04-2007, 18:26
The EU isn't a country, rather a collection of independent states

*cough* Brussels has just asmuch authority over the EU nations as Washington has over Arizona for example *cough* + doesnt take away the fact that the EU has agreed to make a single army, the fact that the EU is collectively working on Oil independancy and has its own government.
Walther Realized
25-04-2007, 18:29
The next world war will be a prank war. I'm already stockpiling itching powder and other supplies. :)
Cream pies and seltzer bottles?
I hear Iran has the Joy Buzzer.
But they plan to only use it for joy and not to buzz.

That made my day :D