NationStates Jolt Archive

When are we as a population going to fully wake up and realise that gasoline (petrol for you Brits) is finite and that a fuel shortage can happen without warning? How many more scares do we need before realise that we need alternative fuels today and not later? That we need cars and other vehicles that run on alternative fuels?

More gas stations run low (http://www.thestar.com/article/185711)

The GTA (Great Toronto Area) and other places on the Gold Horseshoe have been hit with a petrol shortage following a fire at a refinery in Nanticoke, which originally left Canadian Tire and Esso stations tapped dry. Petrol Canada is now finding itself short, with only Shell actually having petrol. The only reason Shell isn't tapped out is because of its notoriety with modifying its gas formula, which damaged vehicles in the past and supported a regime in Africa (I believe it was in specifically Nigeria) that killed certain groups of people.

Subsequent to the fire, there was also a strike by CN Rail, which immobilised the transit of petrol since it is not just shipped in trucks.

I sure most people would love owning cars that run pennies on the mile, are eco-friendly, and don't rely on supplies from volatile regions. There's just one problem - no company has come forward yet with something ready for mass-production. Once they reach that stage, I'm sure it will catch on quite nicely. Until then, why freak out? There's nothing we can do except drive on.

When are we as a population going to fully wake up and realise that gasoline (petrol for you Brits) is finite and that a fuel shortage can happen without warning?

Probably about two or three weeks after it runs out.

I sure most people would love owning cars that run pennies on the mile, are eco-friendly, and don't rely on supplies from volatile regions. There's just one problem - no company has come forward yet with something ready for mass-production. Once they reach that stage, I'm sure it will catch on quite nicely. Until then, why freak out? There's nothing we can do except drive on.
That's the problem; we've been sitting on our hands for a long time.

I can't do much. But, I do my part by using public transit. But, that is still lacking here in North America.

It's easy to say we can wait for someone to come forward, but, are they going to? I've often found myself thinking that car manufacturers and oil companies are involved in the biggest legal cartel known to man. The car manufacturers could easily make a car that runs on alternative fuel, but, they don't.

They didn't learn from the fuel crisis in the 70s when the Arab world held the west hostage as petrol prices soared. We briefly learned and that's why the Japanese cars became popular; they were smaller and fuel efficient. But even now they are falling into the trend of creating gas-guzzling SUVs.

Yes, people would drive the alternative fuel cars, but are the manufacturers going to give us the choice?

When we get to this:

http://www.scifimoviepage.com/images/roadwar_2.jpg

QFT

When we get to this:

http://www.scifimoviepage.com/images/roadwar_2.jpg

[QUOTE=Kryozerkia;12371626]
I But, I do my part by using public transit.
QUOTE]

I do my part by using public transport, though this is more to do with being underage for driving, and having insufficient money for a job, and the off chance i may be pronounced medically unfit for driving.

Around here, there are already a lot of cars that run on methane and other gas. Also, we are doing a lot of research on biodiesel and there are already some cars running around based on that.

Anyway, I know how to ride a bike, and I dont care if I have to take the bus.

Simple market forces.

Petrol is cheap. Petrol is plentiful. There is simply no reason to buy cars that cost as much as a house in the name of using ‘alternative’ fuels.

The number one reason for any shortage of gasoline is simply refining capacity - easily solved. Crude oil is rather bountiful in the world at the moment, and is not about to suddenly disappear. It will be a slow gradual reduction in production of crude, which will cause a rise in the price, which will make it more economically feasible to switch to alternative fuels.

There is no big conspiracy. There is not some evil entity hiding in the shadows laughing while they manipulate the human race into relying on oil until suddenly it all just vanishes causing the collapse of civilization.

People have been researching alternatives for a very long time. The technology takes time to develop and the exorbitant costs right now are simply above what the market will allow. When scarcity actually starts to become a significant issue, we will transition to something else. Those early adopters reduce the demand for oil, cushioning the supply problems. There will not suddenly be a halt of all oil use; it will be a slow gradual shift. No disaster, no sudden chaos, no ending of civilization, just a slow shift as other technologies come to market in an economically feasible way.

Let’s take the current fashion trend of hybrid cars. People think they are doing such a great thing for the environment, but if you actually examine the entire lifecycle of the vehicle you will see it has an even worse total impact than a standard internal combustion engine vehicle. It might take fewer gallons to travel a certain distance, but that is not the only impact it has. You have to evaluate it from the sourcing of the raw materials to the final disposal of every component. Over its lifecycle, a hybrid car contributes substantially more carbon dioxide than an ordinary car.

Jumping on some environmental bandwagon is just silly – please try to be rational about it. And for those who then bark about how they switched because it saves them money, you are really silly. The premium price and high maintenance more than exceed whatever price savings you have from better gas mileage.

If you really were concerned about saving fuel and being better for the environment, you would be driving a diesel car. They get better fuel economy than even hybrids and have lower CO2 emissions. Hybrids are new and trendy, where as diesels have been around for ages – so of course nobody would be that unfashionable.

QFT

See? My pics are on topic, and are not spammy.

[snip] I think people know. the problem is that Gas (Petrol) is so ingrained into our infrastructure, to rapidly switch to a radically different fuel could bring about an economic stumble that would make the Great Depression of the 1930 a good thing.

When we get to this:

http://www.scifimoviepage.com/images/roadwar_2.jpg

I haven't seen that movie in ages. -goes to video store-

There was some fancy new tech in here (http://www.hybridtechnologies.com/)

You don't even really need to be a hard-core environmentalist to be concerned about our energy requirements. I work in the transportation industry and see daily how the rising cost of fuel impacts our business, and therefore every single business that relies on shipped product (i.e. - everything.)

The need for our industries to start looking for alternatives should be very clear. It's going to be increasingly more expensive to do business, which is going to impact the pricing of everything purchased by the consumer, which will naturally have a negative effect on the economy.

One could argue that supply and demand would result in a situation where most of the products we consume would be produced closer to home. However, unless we're all planning on living in communes growing our own vegetables, we have to face facts that eventually, something as simple as driving a car will be a luxury.

I'm not saying that doomsday is happening tomorrow, but Kryozerkia's right; it's a finite resource, and Industry should be looking very closely at alternatives. (I'm assuming they already are.)

Those gas stations should have raised prices so that they wouldn't run out of fuel. They could have used the extra money to bring in more gasoline from other markets or regions where the supply was not disrupted. We forget that the rationing effect of prices is very, very powerful especially when prices remain elevated for prolonged periods of time. By doing that, they might have destroyed enough demand temporarily until the refineries could begin to supply them again.

I mean, just look at the growth in alternative energy in the past few years; we're talking 20-30% per year or more, and imagine how fast we'd be working if oil prices kept rising as fast as they did in 1999-2005. There are plenty of alternatives to oil out there that could be built out in a short time as long as the market price of oil makes them competitive (as it currently is).

I think people know. the problem is that Gas (Petrol) is so ingrained into our infrastructure, to rapidly switch to a radically different fuel could bring about an economic stumble that would make the Great Depression of the 1930 a good thing.

Over 60% of our oil is used in light-duty vehicles like cars and SUVs. Everything else is nothing compared to that, and if we had to we could eliminate that oil demand in a decade or two without difficulty.

If anything, we'd be looking at a prolonged version of the 1970's with high inflation, elevated unemployment and slow GDP growth.

Over 60% of our oil is used in light-duty vehicles like cars and SUVs. Everything else is nothing compared to that, and if we had to we could eliminate that oil demand in a decade or two without difficulty.

If anything, we'd be looking at a prolonged version of the 1970's with high inflation, elevated unemployment and slow GDP growth.

I can tell you that the rising price of oil impacts the transportation industry in a major way, and therefore the pricing of everything shipped by truck.

Theoretically, we could alleviate the demand for oil by changing the fuel requirements for light-duty vehicles. However, you would still see a rise of price unless it's that much more inexpensive for the light-duty vehicles to use the 'new' fuel. Why would consumers stop using gas-burning cars and trucks while it's still affordable to do so? Unless you restrict gasoline usage to commercial vehicles only... (good luck with that...)

Those gas stations should have raised prices so that they wouldn't run out of fuel. They could have used the extra money to bring in more gasoline from other markets or regions where the supply was not disrupted. We forget that the rationing effect of prices is very, very powerful especially when prices remain elevated for prolonged periods of time. By doing that, they might have destroyed enough demand temporarily until the refineries could begin to supply them again.

I mean, just look at the growth in alternative energy in the past few years; we're talking 20-30% per year or more, and imagine how fast we'd be working if oil prices kept rising as fast as they did in 1999-2005. There are plenty of alternatives to oil out there that could be built out in a short time as long as the market price of oil makes them competitive (as it currently is).

People get downright ornery when you raise the price by as much as five cents/litre over the weekend, let alone skyrocketing prices due to lack of supply. Price gouging due to lack of supply is generally frowned upon, and liable to end up with gas station employees hanging from makeshift nooses over Shell or Petro-Canada signs.

But you're right on the increasing cost of fuel being the kickstarter on alternative fuels. Sometimes we just wait for the worst to happen first...

I can tell you that the rising price of oil impacts the transportation industry in a major way, and therefore the pricing of everything shipped by truck.

Oh, it does. Truck-based transportation is the most vulnerable to price increases of all forms of transportation other than LDVs.

Theoretically, we could alleviate the demand for oil by changing the fuel requirements for light-duty vehicles. However, you would still see a rise of price unless it's that much more inexpensive for the light-duty vehicles to use the 'new' fuel. Why would consumers stop using gas-burning cars and trucks while it's still affordable to do so? Unless you restrict gasoline usage to commercial vehicles only... (good luck with that...)

It would make more sense to shift the burden of oil dependency to the gasoline itself; if we shifted the military funding that the US spends securing the Persian Gulf's oil supplies from income tax to gasoline taxes, we'd be paying at least $8, maybe $10 per gallon. The problem is, the effects of oil consumption aren't reflected in the product itself; people who use it efficiently are penalized through taxes paid to support those who waste it.

We could also up mileage standards; there's a huge difference between a fleet fuel economy of 40 mpg and 27.5 mpg, let alone higher numbers like 50 or 60 mpg or more that the most advanced hybrids have.

People get downright ornery when you raise the price by as much as five cents/litre over the weekend, let alone skyrocketing prices due to lack of supply. Price gouging due to lack of supply is generally frowned upon, and liable to end up with gas station employees hanging from makeshift nooses over Shell or Petro-Canada signs.

Well, it wouldn't be price gouging, it would be an attempt to ration the fuel so that everyone can get enough gas to get through the disruption.

I mean there's a difference between artificially taking oil off the market to raise prices and doing it so that you don't run out; those gas stations are going to have to pay more for their fuel because spot prices will soar as they all try to get gasoline from other places. They're going to lose a lot of money if they don't raise prices.

But you're right on the increasing cost of fuel being the kickstarter on alternative fuels. Sometimes we just wait for the worst to happen first...

True. That's what happened in the 1970's, and it will happen again.

Over 60% of our oil is used in light-duty vehicles like cars and SUVs. Everything else is nothing compared to that, and if we had to we could eliminate that oil demand in a decade or two without difficulty.

If anything, we'd be looking at a prolonged version of the 1970's with high inflation, elevated unemployment and slow GDP growth.

What?! That's a gross exaggeration of the facts, methinks.



Anywho, while oil is not a renewable resource, we have a lot more than you seem to think we have; we aren't going to run out any time soon. Also, you can't simply raise the price of oil and expect demand to drop; oil has become, as somebody pointed out, engrained into our economy and increasing the price will only put a large strain on the economy while doing virtually nothing to demand. Yes, higher prices will lead to greater enthusiasm put into alternative energy research, but they need time to find something that is better overall than oil (i.e., price, output, etc.).

Well, it wouldn't be price gouging, it would be an attempt to ration the fuel so that everyone can get enough gas to get through the disruption.

I mean there's a difference between artificially taking oil off the market to raise prices and doing it so that you don't run out; those gas stations are going to have to pay more for their fuel because spot prices will soar as they all try to get gasoline from other places. They're going to lose a lot of money if they don't raise prices.

Call me a little jaded, but I have a hard time believing that gas stations are really concerned about people running out of gas; unless it's to come back and fill up. I do see what you're saying about their loss of revenue though.

Over 60% of our oil is used in light-duty vehicles like cars and SUVs. Everything else is nothing compared to that, and if we had to we could eliminate that oil demand in a decade or two without difficulty.

If anything, we'd be looking at a prolonged version of the 1970's with high inflation, elevated unemployment and slow GDP growth.

and those cars and suv's are ingrained in everyone's life.

that's why instead of introducing alternate energy vehicles, they went with hybrids.

it weans people off of oil.

look around your neighborhood and try to imagine convincing them to quit oil cold turkey

When are we as a population going to fully wake up and realise that gasoline (petrol for you Brits) is finite and that a fuel shortage can happen without warning? How many more scares do we need before realise that we need alternative fuels today and not later? That we need cars and other vehicles that run on alternative fuels?

More gas stations run low (http://www.thestar.com/article/185711)

The GTA (Great Toronto Area) and other places on the Gold Horseshoe have been hit with a petrol shortage following a fire at a refinery in Nanticoke, which originally left Canadian Tire and Esso stations tapped dry. Petrol Canada is now finding itself short, with only Shell actually having petrol. The only reason Shell isn't tapped out is because of its notoriety with modifying its gas formula, which damaged vehicles in the past and supported a regime in Africa (I believe it was in specifically Nigeria) that killed certain groups of people.

Subsequent to the fire, there was also a strike by CN Rail, which immobilised the transit of petrol since it is not just shipped in trucks.

Feh. The people will never listen.

Personally, I'm stockpiling hamsters. Just in case. When you all are wandering around the post-apocalyptic nightmare, I will be snug and safe in my hamster-powered home. :)

A good solution that should have happened in the early 80s would be to stop the obsession with living in sprawling suburbs, use more mass transit, and switch to diesel engines for those outside convenient metro areas.

If you reduce the casual usage (the demand from those who could easily find alternatives) the upward pressure on price for those without easy alternatives will be greatly reduced.

There is no need for panic or overreaction, just start putting the ideas out there that living in the sprawling suburbs is not a good idea for the planet or even for yourself. A good ad campaign will help society will shift slowly, but it will shift.

Rising prices combined with the current awareness of the problem among most people has already started a major shift towards being ecologically friendly. We just have to be patient and let it take its course. If you try to force cobbled-together solutions on a populace you will meet great resistance (not to mention wasting resources on a ‘solution’ which will probably be highly ineffective).

When we get to this:

http://www.scifimoviepage.com/images/roadwar_2.jpg

YYYYEEESSSS!!!!

What?! That's a gross exaggeration of the facts, methinks.



Anywho, while oil is not a renewable resource, we have a lot more than you seem to think we have; we aren't going to run out any time soon.


Given known reserves, and unless pumping technologies improve (and assuming that consumption doesn't increase) around 30 years or so. If the technologies do improve then (again assuming consumption doesn't increase or more is discovered) perhaps 100.