NationStates Jolt Archive

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_20th_Plot

As many of you will know, it is generally believed that some officer tripping over the map with the bomb in it and then pushing it underneith a table saved Hitler's life.

He was barely injured, and as it became known that he was still alive the plot collapsed as various figures didn't tag along. The officers involved were arrested and either shot or committed suicide.

But what if the bomb had done its job? What if Hitler had died, Remer had arrested Goebbels and Plan Valkyrie had kicked off?

A few questions:

1) Could it ever have worked? How would the population have reacted, and what would the SS have done?

2) Stülpnagel on the Western Front was meant to go and ask the Allies for peace terms. The German Armies in the West were meant to retreat to the German borders. Would the Allies have accepted? In real life, after the coup the British and Americans were at pains to pretend it didn't happen because they needed the idea that Prussian militarism and modern Nazism were pretty much the same thing. Recognising that pretty much all the biggest names in the Prussian military were actually against Hitler, and that the leading Nazis came overwhelmingly from poor families with catholic background wouldn't have fit into that. Ultimately their demand for an unconditional surrender would have looked a lot worse to their people if they couldn't maintain the idea that Germany and the Nazis were one and the same thing.

3) How would the Russians have reacted? I think it's obvious that the new German leadership would have tried their best to stop the Russian advance. Maybe without Hitler giving absurd orders, they could have done a bit better. Was there ever any chance of the Allies accepting a ceasefire with the Germans only in the West?

4) And how would Germany have developed after the war, if they had indeed managed to prevent the country from being occupied?

The world would have been a much better place.

The world would have been a much better place.
Yeah, that's why I asked the last question. Assuming everything went ideally and Germany had remained intact...would we really be better off today?

I mean, for all their good intentions and ideas about honour and duty, the guys involved in this plot were not exactly democrats.

Yeah, that's why I asked the last question. Assuming everything went ideally and Germany had remained intact...would we really be better off today?

I mean, for all their good intentions and ideas about honour and duty, the guys involved in this plot were not exactly democrats.

They were an improvement over Hitler, and that's good enough for me.

One of the big differences if the 20th of July Plot had succeeded would have been in setting the stage of the cold war a little differently. The USSR would have been in a weaker position to play in setting the terms of the peace, perhaps to the point where Germany would not have been partitioned in the manner that it was. At the close of the war, Europe was partitioned basically on the strength of where the armies were; the famous iron curtain fell essentially right where Eastern and Western troops were staring at each other.

The West was unwilling to give the Soviets any more than they already held, and the Soviets were unwilling to give anything that they had already up. The Soviets would wind up with a much shorter end of the stick, especially when it came down to the spoils of Germany - the rocket scientists, the engineers, the material resources...

A negotiated peace between Germany and the West in 1944 would have confirmed in Stalin's mind the fact that the West was a future enemy, and the of the need to continue on past Berlin.

I picture Nazis, Brits and Americans fighting Soviets...not exactly a pretty picture.

I picture Nazis, Brits and Americans fighting Soviets...not exactly a pretty picture.
Well, they wouldn't be Nazis anymore, strictly speaking. :p

A negotiated peace between Germany and the West in 1944 would have confirmed in Stalin's mind the fact that the West was a future enemy, and the of the need to continue on past Berlin.

I picture Nazis, Brits and Americans fighting Soviets...not exactly a pretty picture.

Patton want to fight Soviets using the Troops there and with the Greman ones add to them

The world would have been a much better place.

At least for Europe...Japanese would have still been going strong.

Well, they wouldn't be Nazis anymore, strictly speaking. :p

True, true. :p

I think that someone else more compatent would have taken over, it may not have changed the outcome but it would have been harder fought. As much as people hated Hitler he did help the allies to win, some of his policies weren't thought out properly which lead to advantages being thown away and some times even turned around against them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_20th_Plot
1) Could it ever have worked? How would the population have reacted, and what would the SS have done?
I think that the german population would have taken whatever their leaders decided; "Gehörchen" (iirc), that is, obeyance, was a major feature in german culture back then.


2) Stülpnagel on the Western Front was meant to go and ask the Allies for peace terms. The German Armies in the West were meant to retreat to the German borders. Would the Allies have accepted? ...


I think that maybe Winnie Churchill would have considered the matter: but I think that De Gaulle and FDR wouldn't have accepted. Also I think that the british Royals would have opposed a separated peace, because that would have led to a war against CCCP - I don't think that Stalin or the soviet people were ready to accept anything else than the unconditioned surrender of Germany to CCCP and Allies together, not after what the Nazis had done to CCCP.


3) How would the Russians have reacted? I think it's obvious that the new German leadership would have tried their best to stop the Russian advance. Maybe without Hitler giving absurd orders, they could have done a bit better. Was there ever any chance of the Allies accepting a ceasefire with the Germans only in the West?

The Germans were already trying to do their best against CCCP, and were failing everywhere, even with most of the Wehrmacht and of the Waffen-SS already pitted against the Soviet Army. Their weapons were technically no match for the soviets' ones, and their tactics had become obsolete - they still stuck to StuKa attacks on tanks while the soviets already used rockets from the Sturmoviks. Think of the IS heavy tank series, those monsters could withstand even a direct hit from a 8,8 cm gun. Jet fighters were too late in development and deploy, and so was rocket artilllery (the Nebelwerfers were a lot less, both in number and effectiveness, than the Katjushas).
I think, generally, that Germany wasn't prepared in 1939 for a world war - Hitler thought that he could occupy Poland without any reaction from France and Britain, like it happened with Czechoslovakia and Austria, and that jerk Mussolini thought that Britain was going to accept the offer for peace Hitler made after conquering France. Too bad for Adolf and Benito, better for us all, I think.


4) And how would Germany have developed after the war, if they had indeed managed to prevent the country from being occupied?
If those (unlikely) events had occurred, it would have been something on the lines of Franco's Spain or Pinochet's Chile, I think. A strong military junta, harsh repression, and most of the industries working for export at bargain prices to repay war debts.

Assuming everything went ideally and Germany had remained intact...

The split-up of Germany was enforced by the western Allies, by creating the BRD in the territories occupied by UK/USA/France; Stalin instead was asking for a demilitarised, unified Germany under allied-soviet control iirc.
I think that De Gaulle would have requested a part of the german territory as repayment, maybe the Rheinland-Pfalz, Saarland and some of Baden-Württemberg and Nordrhein-Westfalen, like in the aftermath of WW1.

The Germans were already trying to do their best against CCCP, and were failing everywhere, even with most of the Wehrmacht and of the Waffen-SS already pitted against the Soviet Army.
Well, they wouldn't have won the war, but ideas like declaring various cities "fortresses" that should led themselves be encircled to bind Soviet Forces came from Hitler. A competent leadership would have done a much bigger retreat, saving more of their forces and shortening their supply lines. And once that was done, they could put up a stronger resistance along the Polish border for example and wait for the developments in the West.

Their weapons were technically no match for the soviets' ones, and their tactics had become obsolete - they still stuck to StuKa attacks on tanks while the soviets already used rockets from the Sturmoviks.
Well, they just lacked a good ground attack aircraft. They in fact had one (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henschel_Hs_129), but industry didn't produce enough of them.

And it's not like the Stukas didn't still do quite well. The problem was that they had to operate in total enemy air superiority. Nonetheless, people like Rudel (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans-Ulrich_Rudel) were still getting kills by the bucketloads.

Think of the IS heavy tank series, those monsters could withstand even a direct hit from a 8,8 cm gun.
Not necessarily. The Tiger II (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiger_II#Combat_history) could kill an IS-2 from 1.2km away. In fact, it looks like occasionally IS-2s would get some serious pwnage dealt to them.

I think, generally, that Germany wasn't prepared in 1939 for a world war...
No arguments from me there.

Too bad for Adolf and Benito, better for us all, I think.
Definitely. And I would go a step further and question whether it would actually have been all that good if these generals had taken over. Because there wouldn't have been that thorough break with history and there wouldn't have been denazification as such. Today's Germany would probably not be as free.

1) Could it ever have worked? How would the population have reacted, and what would the SS have done?It probably could have worked. At the time, the thing that tethered most of the military officers to the Nazi party was the oath they had sworn on Hitler. With Hitler out of the way, there might have been enough support. As to what would the SS have done: The Wehrmacht soldiers in Paris seriously enjoyed arresting the SS-men as part of the coup. Remember, the Wehrmacht consisted of conscripts while the SS was a volunteer force.

2) Stülpnagel on the Western Front was meant to go and ask the Allies for peace terms. The German Armies in the West were meant to retreat to the German borders. Would the Allies have accepted? In real life, after the coup the British and Americans were at pains to pretend it didn't happen because they needed the idea that Prussian militarism and modern Nazism were pretty much the same thing. Recognising that pretty much all the biggest names in the Prussian military were actually against Hitler, and that the leading Nazis came overwhelmingly from poor families with catholic background wouldn't have fit into that. Ultimately their demand for an unconditional surrender would have looked a lot worse to their people if they couldn't maintain the idea that Germany and the Nazis were one and the same thing.Hard to tell. I imagine that there would have at least been serious consideration of the offer. Perhaps the interim government would have accepted unconditional surrender. In the least, the war would likely have been over sooner.

3) How would the Russians have reacted? I think it's obvious that the new German leadership would have tried their best to stop the Russian advance. Maybe without Hitler giving absurd orders, they could have done a bit better. Was there ever any chance of the Allies accepting a ceasefire with the Germans only in the West?It's unlikely but possible.

It could have ended up like the situation in the first Red Alert game, with Stalin facing off against the Allies made up of Britain, France, America and Germany. Although by that point quite a lot of people were fed up to the back teeth with war, so there would have been some very hard considering going on by both sides about what would happen next.

I reckon I might just bump this.