NationStates Jolt Archive

I know that a big recession is going to come- I just don't know when. I'm guessing in about ten years- what do you all say?

Dammit, I just lost The Game!

Anyway, the next recession is going to come very soon, just because you mentioned it.

Dammit, I just lost The Game!

Anyway, the next recession is going to come very soon, just because you mentioned it.

Wow, it's like cogito ergo sum, except for a big depression that destroys all semblance of social order.

Tuesday afternoon.

Probably not for a while; the world economy is simply too strong for a serious recession to set in. For example, the strong growth in China and India has provided a boost to the United States and has partially offset the effects of the housing slowdown. The interdependence of the world economy has made it significantly stronger

And, of course, technologically speaking the accelerating progress in various fields is boosting worker productivity, enhancing our growth potential and offsetting some of the inflationary risks to the economy in recent years. It also enables companies to grow more and for more prolonged periods without suffering due to rising costs.

If there's a serious recession, it's not going to happen for at least a decade, and even then it will be mild compared to 1980, the most severe one in recent history.

I know that a big recession is going to come- I just don't know when. I'm guessing in about ten years- what do you all say?
Define "Big." Do you mean a "wide-spread cannibalism and massive depopulation accompanied by a growth of doomsday cults"-type recession (such as the Black Death in Europe), a "massive unemployment accompanied by social upheavel and the occassional attempted coup"-type of recession (like the Great Depression), or a "few thousand people get fired and start appearing on CNN and MSNBC to whine about how they had to sell their TVs"-type recession?

Dammit, I just lost The Game!

Gah! Made me lose >.>

Actually we're in a recession and have been since about 1980. We just have this fantastic credit card that we've run up to the point that the rest of the world is scared to call in the note. They know if they do the whole world will drop and it would take a long.......long......long time to recover. So they just make the drop worse by extending more credit. Hoping it doesn't drop till they get out of office so it can drop on someone else.

Actually we're in a recession and have been since about 1980. We just have this fantastic credit card that we've run up to the point that the rest of the world is scared to call in the note. They know if they do the whole world will drop and it would take a long.......long......long time to recover. So they just make the drop worse by extending more credit. Hoping it doesn't drop till they get out of office so it can drop on someone else.

People can pay their bills. There's nothing wrong with taking on debt as long as you can afford to finance it, and for all intents and purposes that is the case. We've been able to afford our spending on credit, and rises in real income have enabled us to finance more and more debt without difficulty. The "debt bubble" doesn't really exist and isn't going to harm our economy significantly. It didn't in the early 1980's, the early 1990's, or the early 2000's and it's not going to in the future.

The consumer today is many, many times more well informed and has more resources at their disposal in regard to credit than they did in 1980. We can handle more debt in both nominal and real terms without a problem.

I don't know when it will be, but the next recession will probably come about directly from a failure to evaluate risk in the face of a terror attack.

Define "Big." Do you mean a "wide-spread cannibalism and massive depopulation accompanied by a growth of doomsday cults"-type recession (such as the Black Death in Europe), a "massive unemployment accompanied by social upheavel and the occassional attempted coup"-type of recession (like the Great Depression), or a "few thousand people get fired and start appearing on CNN and MSNBC to whine about how they had to sell their TVs"-type recession?

Middle one. I don't think there's anything serious enough to cause the first, but I think it's going to be more severe than the last, with all the debt and deficits and monetary depreciation.

Actually we're in a recession and have been since about 1980. We just have this fantastic credit card that we've run up to the point that the rest of the world is scared to call in the note. They know if they do the whole world will drop and it would take a long.......long......long time to recover. So they just make the drop worse by extending more credit. Hoping it doesn't drop till they get out of office so it can drop on someone else.

QFT.

Middle one. I don't think there's anything serious enough to cause the first, but I think it's going to be more severe than the last, with all the debt and deficits and monetary depreciation.

What monetary depreciation? Has the inflation rate increased?

People can pay their bills. There's nothing wrong with taking on debt as long as you can afford to finance it, and for all intents and purposes that is the case. We've been able to afford our spending on credit, and rises in real income have enabled us to finance more and more debt without difficulty. The "debt bubble" doesn't really exist and isn't going to harm our economy significantly. It didn't in the early 1980's, the early 1990's, or the early 2000's and it's not going to in the future.

The consumer today is many, many times more well informed and has more resources at their disposal in regard to credit than they did in 1980. We can handle more debt in both nominal and real terms without a problem.

I wasn't talking of personal debt. I was talking of national debt. The personal economy is kept up by the government pouring trillions of dollars into it. The catch is the government doesn't have the money so they borrow it. (I used credit card as a literary device) The debt has gone so high since 1980 under "conservative" presidents that the rest of the world is scared to call in the note. They don't want the economy of the entire world to drop on their watch. So they just keep loaning the US more to keep it going a few more years. It's a big cycle. No politician wants it to fall on them so they do what it takes to stall for time. They don't (or now that it's so bad, can't) do anything to stop the cycle. So when it ends it will make the '30s look like a walk in the park. In the 30's the people didn't have money but the government did. So the government just needed to pour money into the economy. What's coming is neither the government or people will have money. The thing is, what the government has been doing over the last 25 or so years is exactly what was done under Roosevelt. They are pouring money in to avoid recession. The difference is, they don't have the money.

Oh no... Really It depends on what economic philosopher you believe is right. Honestly, I think we (the US) have set ourselves up for another major recession. No one knows exactly when, and according to some theories we are way over due. I figure that the next one will be exponentially worse than the one we are currently in. I am just waiting for Bambi to push the snowball.

I guess that is one of the major problems that capitalism has... It tends to cyclical in nature. Although it does cycle, it is still very difficult to predict.

...soon.

What monetary depreciation? Has the inflation rate increased?

Inflation rates are misleading, as they are A.) Construed so as to hide price increases (They are government measures, and the government wants to make itself look good), B.) Masked by productivity (So that, even if you make more M2, if you have a bit more goods it is not as apparent), and C.) Absorbed by trade deficits. A better way to look at it is the interest rate minus the inflation rate (the real interest rate has been in the negatives recently, not now, but before) and the growth of M2, which has been rising and rising, making each dollar effectively worth less and less due to less scarcity.

What really scares me about the dollar is that right now the threat of hyperinflation is being held in check by the trade deficit- there is a demand for dollars still, which gives them more value. But with people beginning to shun the US' debt instruments and not investing dollars in them, the dollar will become less and less valuable and foreign nations will not want them any more. This, with the threat of the insolvency of social security, medicaid, medicare, and rising debt already, will help to push the dollar down even further. Then comes the economic collapse I dread.

dude chill, one just happened like 4-5 years ago. and the next one will be worse, it'll be depression because of oil problems, and we'll be so depressed america will be sliting its wrists all emo kid style.

What really scares me about the dollar is that right now the threat of hyperinflation is being held in check by the trade deficit- there is a demand for dollars still, which gives them more value. But with people beginning to shun the US' debt instruments and not investing dollars in them, the dollar will become less and less valuable and foreign nations will not want them any more. This, with the threat of the insolvency of social security, medicaid, medicare, and rising debt already, will help to push the dollar down even further. Then comes the economic collapse I dread.

Problem is, demand for US investments isn't going to go down; in fact, recent trends have shown marked increases above the level needed to finance our debt, mainly due to the revival of the bond and stock markets in the past year or so. From a central banking standpoint, no nation in the entire world economy is going to allow that happen, and if we continue to move towards a balanced budget not only is the supply growth of dollars going to constrict but we're going to be able to accrue the kind of reserve cash necessary to fund Social Security and Medicare.

It's a tightrope, no question about that, but the world economy's rapid growth is creating additional financial resources that can be used to shore up any of the constituent economies. The smaller the US's share of global GDP is, the more stable our economy will become, and that is the case as far as global growth has been playing out over the past few decades.

Personally, I doubt that there will be a recession in the next few years. However, the chances of a recession will increase quite significantly after 2011. In 2011, the very first baby-boomers will be retiring, and it is likely that they will start cashing in their assets. This would trigger a huge plunge on Wall Street, a significant plunge in housing prices and would destabilise the world economy. Given that much of the boom has been supported on credit; chances are, it will be a Japanese style bust - a big one that will leave the economy in limbo for twenty years.

"the big one" will hit, INTERNATIONALY, when peak oil becomes official.
and they won't be able to keep it a secret for very long when it happens,
however much certain intrests are bound to try, either.

global climate messing up effects my precipitate one or more sooner.

little green pieces of paper are only little green pieces of paper though,
what counts is something to something to eat and something to breathe.

starvation and suffictation have a tendency to trump
economic and idiological debate.

=^^=
.../\...

It happened 3 seconds ago. We just haven't noticed yet...

Two Days Before The Day After Tomorrow.


Oh God, that's today!



AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Two Days Before The Day After Tomorrow.


Oh God, that's today!



AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

:D

Exactly what sort of recession is the OP talking about here? A global recession or one that is more localized in some particular place?

Its here already! Its been striking hairlines for a long time!

if the republican party is to be believed, the first wednesday after the first monday of November 2008 if a democratic candidate is elected president.

Or sometime during the third week of the following January. Somewhere in that "time frame."

no no, the recession will hit immediatly after the election. Osama Bin Laden will be declared official religious leader on the third week of january.

Forced conversion will begin the following week. There will be cake.

Or death.

if the republican party is to be believed, the first wednesday of November 2008 if a democratic candidate is elected president.

Or sometime during the third week of the following January. Somewhere in that "time frame."

no no, the recession will hit immediatly after the election. Osama Bin Laden will be declared official religious leader on the third week of january.

Forced conversion will begin the following week. There will be cake.

Or death.

Hmm ... if there were pie, I could think about it, but I'm not that much of a cake fan.

Probably when the oil runs out or somewhat before because it will be to expensive to buy. This can be avoided if we spend our money on renewable energy sources immediatelly but that wont probably happend because we are, and have always been to stupid to to anything about problems until the very last moment.

Probably not for a while; the world economy is simply too strong for a serious recession to set in. For example, the strong growth in China and India has provided a boost to the United States and has partially offset the effects of the housing slowdown. The interdependence of the world economy has made it significantly stronger

And, of course, technologically speaking the accelerating progress in various fields is boosting worker productivity, enhancing our growth potential and offsetting some of the inflationary risks to the economy in recent years. It also enables companies to grow more and for more prolonged periods without suffering due to rising costs.

If there's a serious recession, it's not going to happen for at least a decade, and even then it will be mild compared to 1980, the most severe one in recent history.

I disagree. I think that it is coming sooner then we think.

All of the red flags from the 1930s great depression are reappearing. Consumer debt and public debt are sky rocketing together in the United States. Real wages are stagnant or falling while productivity is continuing to rise. Very soon, people are going to have to stop spending, and the economy is going to go from reasonably moving forward to tanking rather quickly.

I disagree. I think that it is coming sooner then we think.

All of the red flags from the 1930s great depression are reappearing. Consumer debt and public debt are sky rocketing together in the United States. Real wages are stagnant or falling while productivity is continuing to rise. Very soon, people are going to have to stop spending, and the economy is going to go from reasonably moving forward to tanking rather quickly.

Unlike 1929, the economic engines of Europe and Asia are not currently in disarray. Asia continues to grow rapidly, and Europe is on a steady, albeit slow, rate of growth that's unlikely to lead to a major depression. These two factors will be vitally important in lessening the strain caused by an economic downturn, most likely making a worst case scenario be one akin to the recession of late 2001.

More than that, the severity of the depression was heavily influenced by the speculation of the stock market, and the associated effects of that problem.

Problem is, demand for US investments isn't going to go down; in fact, recent trends have shown marked increases above the level needed to finance our debt, mainly due to the revival of the bond and stock markets in the past year or so. From a central banking standpoint, no nation in the entire world economy is going to allow that happen, and if we continue to move towards a balanced budget not only is the supply growth of dollars going to constrict but we're going to be able to accrue the kind of reserve cash necessary to fund Social Security and Medicare.

But the private sector is already starting to turn their back on the debt instrumenets of the United States- see the inverted yield curve. This, in turn, causes the central banks to become more wary of tying themselves to the dollar. Without the capital account balance this provides, this entails that the US dollar will depreciate in value relative to other currencies, and cause downward pressure on its value that will weaken entrepeneurial forecasting and weaken the economy. This, coupled with Social Security and other programs insolvencies, will cause a massive hit to the US economy.

It's a tightrope, no question about that, but the world economy's rapid growth is creating additional financial resources that can be used to shore up any of the constituent economies. The smaller the US's share of global GDP is, the more stable our economy will become, and that is the case as far as global growth has been playing out over the past few decades.

If the US was the only one with high debt, high deficits and insolvent social programs, then I wouldn't be worried. But the thing is that in the first-world it is typical to have these attributes. I fear that the moment that one economy topples, it will strike all of the others sooner than you can blink.

Anyway, the next recession is going to come very soon, just because you mentioned it.I believe this is the major reason behind most recessions. Everyone just thinks that everything is just too good to be true and that something MUST go wrong eventually - and inevitably it does because they're spineless cowards. I think I've mentioned once or twice on this forum who I depise short-term currency/stock speculators.

However, like 1929, you do have an increasingly protectionist streak (I subscribe to the theory that the increasing support for the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Bill in the Senate caused the Wall Street Crash). However, the major difference is that the Federal Reserve would not suck money out of the market like they did in 1929