What's next for Guinea?
Congo--Kinshasa
12-02-2007, 18:43
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6353217.stm
Conte's popularity, never high, is at an all-time low. He's over 70 years old, diabetic, a chain smoker, and in very poor health. Ongoing strikes mean his position is increasingly precarious. What do you think will happen? Will he step down voluntarily, hold elections (and if he does, will they be fair), die, or be overthrown by the military?
Deus Malum
12-02-2007, 18:46
I'll go with Military Coup for 500, Alex.
New Burmesia
12-02-2007, 18:47
Possibly forced out by his own party, I'd say.
Dododecapod
12-02-2007, 18:53
Conte gets overthrown by General 1. General 1 states he will hold elections in a year or so, but doesn't. His old buddy General 2 has General 1 assassinated. General 2 is a member of a minority, so when he comes to power a rebel movement composed of the majority social group begins, led by RabbleRouser 3. Between the two of them, 2 and 3 destroy the country in order to possess it.
Am I too cynical about African politics?
Congo--Kinshasa
12-02-2007, 18:59
Conte gets overthrown by General 1. General 1 states he will hold elections in a year or so, but doesn't. His old buddy General 2 has General 1 assassinated. General 2 is a member of a minority, so when he comes to power a rebel movement composed of the majority social group begins, led by RabbleRouser 3. Between the two of them, 2 and 3 destroy the country in order to possess it.
Am I too cynical about African politics?
No, you're not too cynical.
But if the Generals don't keep their promise to hold elections, though, other African states would probably speak up and pressure them to keep their word. African governments have become more courageous in criticizing each other in recent years; their stance on Togo in 2005 is evidence of that.
I've been following this on and off, and every time it looks as if things may calm down they don't. It's possible he'll just hold on, and weather violence that will leave dozens more dead. :(
There's now martial law:
The country of 9.4 million people will be under curfew, prohibiting the "movement of people, vehicles or goods ... across the entire national territory" from 6:00 am to 4:00 pm and 8:00 pm to 6:00 am.
"Processions, marches and demonstrations are prohibited" so are "public or private meetings likely to cause or maintain disorder," said Conte, declaring what he described as a "state of siege" in the country.
Conte gave the army sweeping authority to enforce all the laws including control of the media.
He spoke after a day of deadly unrest during a renewed general strike aiming to force him to step down. The strike had earlier been called off when Conte finally agreed to name a prime minister with increased powers, but his choice of long-time ally Eugene Camara sparked new unrest.
Skirmishes between demonstrators and security forces broke out in several neighbourhoods of the capital and in the interior of the country, leaving at least 18 people dead, taking to 104 the total toll since the unrest erupted last month.
[...]
Three soldiers were among the casualties, lynched by angry mobs.
Mamadou Ba, spokesman of a loose alliance of 14 opposition parties said he found it "astonishing that he (Conte) gives powers to the army, which is responsible for all the slaughter".
"He does not think of the country. When a whole people rise against you, you must offer them something," said Ba.
Unions have backed opposition calls for Conte, who suffers from diabetes and memory lapses, to resign after he angered them with his choice of a new prime minister.
[...]
"Conte knows that his power rests mainly on the army," said Gilles Yabi, an expert on Guinea with the global think tank International Crisis Group (ICG).
Article here (http://www.france24.com/france24Public/en/news/world/20070212-Guinea-violence.html).
Death through viagra misuse.
Congo--Kinshasa
13-02-2007, 21:32
There's now martial law:
Article here (http://www.france24.com/france24Public/en/news/world/20070212-Guinea-violence.html).
Damn, you beat me to it! :p
I was about to post the same thing (from the same source, no less :D).
On a more somber note, I hope thinks can be resolved there soon. Guinea's never had a democratic government, but I pray someday that will change.
Rubiconic Crossings
13-02-2007, 21:36
sounds pretty fowl to me :p
Guinea's Parliament has refused to extend martial law, thus going against the President's wishes.
The parliament of Guinea has voted unanimously not to extend the state of emergency declared 11 days ago.
President Lansana Conte had asked parliament to renew martial law until a general strike is called off.
President Conte imposed the emergency following weeks of violent street protests against his leadership.
Trade unions have welcomed the vote but said they intend to continue their crippling general strike until a new prime minister is found.
The martial law measures had imposed a curfew and gave the military sweeping powers to search and arrest.
It now expires at midnight local time (GMT) on Friday.
The measures had allowed some calm to be restored after weeks of violence in which more than 100 people were killed.
Article here (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6389609.stm).