NationStates Jolt Archive


What will happen to Russia?

Neu Leonstein
03-02-2007, 11:14
http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,463860,00.html
"Russia Is Slipping Back into an Authoritarian Empire"

Russian author Vladimir Sorokin disscusses waning freedom of opinion in his country, the lack of opposition against President Vladimir Putin and dangerous Western ambivalence that is enabling the Kremlin's growing authoritarian tendencies to take root.

Look, I'm not one to get involved with scaremongering, but I don't like Putin and the direction he's taken. I don't want to see a time when the Russian government is a threat to Europe, yet again.

What do you think Russia will be like in 20 years? Who is going to follow Putin in power, and when will that be?
Australia and the USA
03-02-2007, 11:43
He is currently in his second term, it expires in 2008. Like the USA there is a 2 term limit.
Neu Leonstein
03-02-2007, 11:51
He is currently in his second term, it expires in 2008. Like the USA there is a 2 term limit.
Yeah, but this is Putin we're talking about.

But even if he does step down, who will replace him? I don't have much faith in the electoral process in Russia, to be honest. Too many opposition people having accidents, or suddenly finding themselves in jail.
Rubiconic Crossings
03-02-2007, 11:56
Putin is still young. He is also positioning himself so that when he finishes his second and final term, he will still be the power behind the throne.

Putin has been autocratic since he was first elected. I'll not go into the apartment block bombings and the Chechen wars but he has at the very least manipulated those events to consolidate his power.

Russia is not a democracy.
Cyrian space
03-02-2007, 12:02
The real question is, what can anyone possibly do about it? The Russians have a lot of experience running autocratic governments.
The Plutonian Empire
03-02-2007, 12:15
Just launch the damn nukes already. Current events has gotten so boring that I've stopped watching the news. :(

(Just don't let those post-apocalyptic firing squads run amok like in "The Day After" :( )
Steel Butterfly
03-02-2007, 12:22
Still, no one has yet to say why this is a problem. Russia has a LONG history of being autocratic. People have a problem with it because "OMGZ DEMOKRAZCY IZ DA ONLIE WAYZ!!!!111"
Neu Leonstein
03-02-2007, 12:26
People have a problem with it because "OMGZ DEMOKRAZCY IZ DA ONLIE WAYZ!!!!111"
Russia also has a long history of millions of people being killed by the various governments. And yes, I'd say that I think staying alive and reasonably free is da onlie wayz.

Quite aside from the invariable fight about resources and influences between an authoritarian Russia and the EU, which isn't gonna end happily for either side.
Rubiconic Crossings
03-02-2007, 12:34
Russia also has a long history of millions of people being killed by the various governments. And yes, I'd say that I think staying alive and reasonably free is da onlie wayz.

Quite aside from the invariable fight about resources and influences between an authoritarian Russia and the EU, which isn't gonna end happily for either side.

I for one am not too keen on relying on the Russians for our gas supplies...
Yootopia
03-02-2007, 12:36
Russia also has a long history of millions of people being killed by the various governments. And yes, I'd say that I think staying alive and reasonably free is da onlie wayz.
Urmm Russia is just like Iraq, but a bit bigger, really, in some respects.

Basically you've got about 53,000 ethnic groups, none of whom like any of the other ones, and unless you want a truly ridiculous civil war, like what's happening in Iraq, you basically have to rule with an iron fist.
Neu Leonstein
03-02-2007, 12:42
Urmm Russia is just like Iraq, but a bit bigger, really, in some respects...
You know, they said something similar about Germany too.

Never had a democracy. Then they had one, which went horribly wrong. When Hitler took over (note I'm not trying to do a Godwin here) they said it was simply Germany returning to its natural state. Many people thought it was great, Churchill himself said he'd wish that Britain would get such a leader if it ever had it that tough.

It was all bullshit of course. Democracy did indeed work in Germany, despite its history and internal differences. And I can say with some confidence that the Federal Republic is the best political and social system Germans have ever enjoyed.

So I don't give too much credence to these "democracy doesn't work in X" arguments.
New Burmesia
03-02-2007, 13:06
Urmm Russia is just like Iraq, but a bit bigger, really, in some respects.

Basically you've got about 53,000 ethnic groups, none of whom like any of the other ones, and unless you want a truly ridiculous civil war, like what's happening in Iraq, you basically have to rule with an iron fist.
Most of these groups are right on the southern fringes of Russia, like Ossetia, Dagestan and Chechnya. The only exception is Tatarstan, which is slap-bang in the middle. If they were allowed to democratically seccede if they wanted to, I doubt there would be much of a problem with democracy in Russia. There would be very little threat to its territorial integrity, since these states have defined boundries and are generally quite small.
German Nightmare
03-02-2007, 14:07
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y223/GermanNightmare/Notonestepbackward.jpg

Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.

(Okay, all joking aside - I'm a little worried about the course the Russian Federation has taken lately.)
Imperial isa
03-02-2007, 14:11
i never hear a dam thing about ,so i have no idea
Imperial isa
03-02-2007, 14:14
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y223/GermanNightmare/Notonestepbackward.jpg

Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.

(Okay, all joking aside - I'm a little worried about the course the Russian Federation has taken lately.)

yes master and i got the codes to both sides nukes for you,just say the word and they be in the air
Congo--Kinshasa
03-02-2007, 14:16
We should do everything in our power to instigate a war between Russia and China - with any luck, they'll both destroy each other.
[NS]Trilby63
03-02-2007, 14:25
We should do everything in our power to instigate a war between Russia and China - with any luck, they'll both destroy each other.

Okay, but I don't think it would make much financial sense.
Zarakon
03-02-2007, 14:26
Trilby63;12287602']Okay, but I don't think it would make much financial sense.

As a matter of fact, it wouldn't make sense in any way.
Congo--Kinshasa
03-02-2007, 14:27
As a matter of fact, it wouldn't make sense in any way.

Getting rid of your enemies doesn't make sense? :confused:
Langenbruck
03-02-2007, 14:30
Urmm Russia is just like Iraq, but a bit bigger, really, in some respects.

Basically you've got about 53,000 ethnic groups, none of whom like any of the other ones, and unless you want a truly ridiculous civil war, like what's happening in Iraq, you basically have to rule with an iron fist.

Well, how do you define "ethic group"?

In Germany, there are also many "ethnic groups" (Bavarians, Suebians, Saxonians, Franconians, Friesians...), but there aren't any strong secession movements. (Well, in Bavaria there is such a party, but they normaly get only a few thousand votes.)

If there is a stable, democratic systems, all these ethnic groups won't have a problem, they probably will feel like Russians.
Langenbruck
03-02-2007, 14:31
Getting rid of your enemies doesn't make sense? :confused:

Why are China and Russia your enemies? :confused:
Congo--Kinshasa
03-02-2007, 14:32
Why are China and Russia your enemies? :confused:

China still considers the U.S. "the number one enemy." So does Russia.
German Nightmare
03-02-2007, 14:32
yes master and i got the codes to both sides nukes for you,just say the word and they be in the air
На моем сигнале... Теперь!
Northern Borders
03-02-2007, 14:35
You know, they said something similar about Germany too.

Never had a democracy. Then they had one, which went horribly wrong. When Hitler took over (note I'm not trying to do a Godwin here) they said it was simply Germany returning to its natural state. Many people thought it was great, Churchill himself said he'd wish that Britain would get such a leader if it ever had it that tough.

It was all bullshit of course. Democracy did indeed work in Germany, despite its history and internal differences. And I can say with some confidence that the Federal Republic is the best political and social system Germans have ever enjoyed.

So I don't give too much credence to these "democracy doesn't work in X" arguments.


Yes, democracy worked in Germany.

After 40.000.000 deaths and two wars that completely destroyed the country.

Lets say germans learned to be "humble".
Langenbruck
03-02-2007, 14:38
China still considers the U.S. "the number one enemy." So does Russia.

Well - can you prove it?

As far as I know, the USA are the most important export market for China.

And Russia's aka Putin's worst enemies are all these small Ex-Sovietrepublics which want to introduce democracy. I mean - what would happen if the people of Russia get the same Idea?
The Nuke Testgrounds
03-02-2007, 14:40
China still considers the U.S. "the number one enemy." So does Russia.

Sounds like the US has a lot of enemies. I wonder why. :rolleyes:
Congo--Kinshasa
03-02-2007, 14:41
Sounds like the US has a lot of enemies. I wonder why. :rolleyes:

Because we're governed by idiots who make asses of themselves (and us).
The Nuke Testgrounds
03-02-2007, 14:41
And Russia's aka Putin's worst enemies are all these small Ex-Sovietrepublics which want to introduce democracy. I mean - what would happen if the people of Russia get the same Idea?

Putin will smack down a great iron hammer on the insurgents?
Hydesland
03-02-2007, 14:44
I would say that Russia needs another revolution, but Russia has a very bad history concerning revolutions in the past....
Zarakon
03-02-2007, 14:44
Getting rid of your enemies doesn't make sense? :confused:

Inciting two countries with NUCLEAR WEAPONS into a war is probably not a good idea.
Imperial isa
03-02-2007, 14:44
На моем сигнале... Теперь!

:D
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qEa6CB3eEA
Congo--Kinshasa
03-02-2007, 14:46
Well - can you prove it?

As far as I know, the USA are the most important export market for China.

And Russia's aka Putin's worst enemies are all these small Ex-Sovietrepublics which want to introduce democracy. I mean - what would happen if the people of Russia get the same Idea?

Read New Lies For Old and The Perestroika Deception by Anatoliy Golitsyn, Through the Eyes of the Enemy by Stanislav Lunev, The China Threat by Bill Gertz, China: The Gathering Threat by Constantine C. Menges, and Red Dragon Rising by Edward Timperlake. They contain all the proof you need.
German Nightmare
03-02-2007, 14:48
:D
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qEa6CB3eEA
http://www.studip.uni-goettingen.de/pictures/smile/atomrofl.gif
Aaah. That brightens my day. And probably everyone else's, too - although maybe a little short-lived. :p
The Plutonian Empire
03-02-2007, 14:51
Inciting two countries with NUCLEAR WEAPONS into a war is probably not a good idea.
To me it is. :D
Langenbruck
03-02-2007, 14:51
Yes, democracy worked in Germany.

After 40.000.000 deaths and two wars that completely destroyed the country.

Lets say germans learned to be "humble".

Well, in fact the first war didn't destroy Germany - it was never fought in Germany.

And before WW II, Germany was not the only facist nation. There were many dictatorships in Italy, Hungary, Spain, Romania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, etc.

The first German democracy failed because the constitution was rather weak, and the old conservative forces were still powerful. Combined with the economical struggels of the great depression, the extreme right could gain the power.

After WW II, the new German constitution (which isn't even called constitution) was much better, and there was no big economic crisis like the great depression. Of course there still were some old Nazis which made a career in the federal republic, but they tried everything to hide their old deeds.

And the new generations grow up with democracy - so it could stablize itself with time. To say, a certain nation can never become a democracy, or only by total destruction, is nothing more than plain racism. People change, and new generations change even faster.
Langenbruck
03-02-2007, 14:57
Read New Lies For Old and The Perestroika Deception by Anatoliy Golitsyn, Through the Eyes of the Enemy by Stanislav Lunev, The China Threat by Bill Gertz, China: The Gathering Threat by Constantine C. Menges, and Red Dragon Rising by Edward Timperlake. They contain all the proof you need.

Are you sure that all these writers are totally unbiased? I mean, I would prefer something official by the Chinese and the Russian government, which really says: "The USA are our Number one enemy."

It just makes no sense at all, especially for China. OK, perhaps they meant it economocally, but I doubt that they want to start a war against the USA, their most important market.
Imperial isa
03-02-2007, 14:58
http://www.studip.uni-goettingen.de/pictures/smile/atomrofl.gif
Aaah. That brightens my day. And probably everyone else's, too - although maybe a little short-lived. :p

happy to help, oh i heard they where working on that new nuke
Congo--Kinshasa
03-02-2007, 15:00
Are you sure that all these writers are totally unbiased? I mean, I would prefer something official by the Chinese and the Russian government, which really says: "The USA are our Number one enemy."

It just makes no sense at all, especially for China. OK, perhaps they meant it economocally, but I doubt that they want to start a war against the USA, their most important market.

The Russian ones in particular are authoritative. They were written by Soviet defectors.
Waterback
03-02-2007, 15:05
http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,463860,00.html


Look, I'm not one to get involved with scaremongering, but I don't like Putin and the direction he's taken. I don't want to see a time when the Russian government is a threat to Europe, yet again.

What do you think Russia will be like in 20 years? Who is going to follow Putin in power, and when will that be?

I doubt they'll stop doing stuff like feeding radioactive sushi to critics of the government any time soon. :(
Zarakon
03-02-2007, 15:05
Russia will become very depressed and drink itself to death. Then all the former soviet republics will go to it's funeral, and then the US will think it's their fault and cry itself to sleep every night.
New Stalinberg
03-02-2007, 17:17
Russia's just a big roller coaster.

Right now it's going down, and then when the Middle East runs out of oil and we all turn to Russia they'l get rich and become the most wealthy country in the world. Then when every single Russian citizen parties with lots of vodka in celebration, it will fall back down again.
Hamilay
03-02-2007, 17:24
Inciting two countries with NUCLEAR WEAPONS into a war is probably not a good idea.
Especially when everyone knows that in Soviet Russia, they nuke you!
Imperial isa
03-02-2007, 17:27
Especially when everyone knows that in Soviet Russia, they nuke you!

an we seat here going WTF as they fly by :D
Hamilay
03-02-2007, 17:30
an we seat here going WTF as they fly by :D
Especially the kangaroos.
Imperial isa
03-02-2007, 17:32
Especially the kangaroos.

what about the Emus
Kolvokia
03-02-2007, 17:33
He is currently in his second term, it expires in 2008. Like the USA there is a 2 term limit.

There was something I read in The Week, I believe, a while back, that talked about how the Russian's aren't really excited about any of the other possibilities, and mentioned that a large majority would vote for Putin were he able to run again...
The Jade Star
03-02-2007, 17:38
Im just curious...but has anybody asked the Russians what THEY think?
I mean, Russia did try a nice, happy, democracy once. Anybody care to remember what happened? Something with mafias and crime and such. But I guess that doesnt matter, right?
Live free or die. :rolleyes:

From what I can see, Putin is basically a more effecient Castro. Sure some people die, but he isnt a raving psycho and the country is operating fairly smoothly without an undue degree of corruption.

What happened to all the people who wanted to put Saddam back in power in Iraq a few months ago? Im sure I saw a few of them in this topic.
[NS::::]Olmedreca
03-02-2007, 17:52
There was something I read in The Week, I believe, a while back, that talked about how the Russian's aren't really excited about any of the other possibilities, and mentioned that a large majority would vote for Putin were he able to run again...

Stalin is also quite popular in Russia. If it would affect only Russia then I wouldn't care who they have as ruler. But Russia actualy still wants to be big player in the world so it isn't so irrelevant who they have as ruler, especially if they use their natural resources as political weapons.
Greyenivol Colony
03-02-2007, 19:53
You know, they said something similar about Germany too.

Never had a democracy. Then they had one, which went horribly wrong. When Hitler took over (note I'm not trying to do a Godwin here) they said it was simply Germany returning to its natural state. Many people thought it was great, Churchill himself said he'd wish that Britain would get such a leader if it ever had it that tough.

It was all bullshit of course. Democracy did indeed work in Germany, despite its history and internal differences. And I can say with some confidence that the Federal Republic is the best political and social system Germans have ever enjoyed.

So I don't give too much credence to these "democracy doesn't work in X" arguments.

QFT.
New Xero Seven
03-02-2007, 19:58
Russia will be under a heavy flooding of beet soup.
The Jade Star
03-02-2007, 20:01
Russia will be under a heavy flooding of beet soup.

Dont forget vodka.
Greyenivol Colony
03-02-2007, 20:06
I am not optimistic when it comes to Russia. The life expectancy among the lower echelons of Russian society is plummeting (thanks to factors such as AIDS, diminishing healthcare and welfare provisions and poisoned bootleg Vodka). Meanwhile, the Russian middle classes are becoming increasingly radicalised between the pro-Putin "let us do whatever the Kremlin orders, they know what is best for the Rodina!" group and the neo-fascist "Russia's problems are all due to the Kykes and Niggers!" group.
Sel Appa
03-02-2007, 21:15
http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,463860,00.html


Look, I'm not one to get involved with scaremongering, but I don't like Putin and the direction he's taken. I don't want to see a time when the Russian government is a threat to Europe, yet again.

What do you think Russia will be like in 20 years? Who is going to follow Putin in power, and when will that be?

I will be ruling it, so nothing much to worry about, except how to invest.
Neu Leonstein
04-02-2007, 00:39
Lets say germans learned to be "humble".
By not kowtowing to their government anymore?

No, the wars made people not want to make war anymore. It didn't make democracy suddenly work when before it didn't.