NationStates Jolt Archive


Will the Iraq conflict become a wider, regional war?

PsychoticDan
01-02-2007, 23:17
It may already be happening. $150/barrel, here we come.

The murderous Sunni-Shia battle in Iraq is starting to infect other parts of the Middle East. It's spreading in insidious ways: In people's conversations, in the ways Arabs in the region look at events in neighboring nations, in the decisions some are making to take up arms several countries away from home.

On a recent visit to Jordan, I was speaking with a man we often work with on the ground, a Jordanian Sunni, who is as far from a radical Islamist as you can find.


"What the Shias are doing in Iraq, it's making Arabs not want to support Hezbollah in Lebanon."

I was dumbfounded.


"What they did to Saddam Hussein?" I asked.


"That and other things. Nasrallah is going to have to back down with the Lebanese government because people don't want to support the Shias as much as after the war with Israel."

The internal clash between Sunnis and Shias was spreading like a cancer, I thought.

This man was no fan of Saddam Hussein, and I can't say I ever meet anyone in the Middle East who is; yet the grainy cellphone images of his hanging, and the taunts and cries of "Muqtada! Muqtada! Muqtada!" beamed around the Middle East and the world, struck a chord among Sunnis in faraway places across the region. The images hit a raw nerve.

Drinking coffee in a hotel lobby on an unrelated assignment, I felt the full impact of the shift in the region. The Sunni-Shia divide is experiencing a region-wide revival more than 1,400 years after it first led to a split among Muslims.

I remembered the story of the son of an Egyptian banker, a young man in his thirties who was married with two children. Increasingly religious and radical, he one day told his father that he was traveling to Iraq to fight. Against whom? The Americans, the Shias, you name it. He disappeared a few months ago, leaving his young family behind. The last time the father heard from him, I was told, the son was heading to Damascus. He has had no news from him since.

Growing up in a Syrian family in France, I don't once remember hearing the differences between Sunnis and Shias discussed in any great detail. Occasionally, "a Sunni married a Shia," or a Christian man converted to marry a Muslim woman, and that was that. I never learned more than the basics about why the original schism occurred because, in my family, it was simply not considered relevant to my understanding of political and social events in the region.

In my travels across the Middle East as early as last year, I can't think of an instance when a Sunni or a Shia outside of Iraq openly expressed feelings of hostility toward members of the other sect. It was something that was happening in Iraq - something tragic - but a conflict that remained contained within the borders of the war-torn country.

That was the Middle East of the past. Today, the battle lines have multiplied exponentially. It's not "the Arab world against the West" of the Iraq invasion aftermath, it's the Sunnis versus the Shias, the Christians with the Sunnis against the Christians with the Shias, the Sunnis against the West, the Shias with the West, those against the West, the Druze with the Sunnis against the Shias, and the list goes on. The overall conflict is dividing itself into hundreds of splinters. It's not bloody everywhere, of course, but the tension is sewing the seeds of what could explode into other struggles in many other places across the region.

Take Iran and Saudi Arabia: The two regional powers have come to represent the Sunni-Shia divide and despite efforts to smooth things over, tensions still run deep.

Repeated comments from the Saudi King Abdallah who reigns over the bastion of Sunni Islam are binging the Sunni-Shia divide into sharp focus. In a recent interview, he issued a veiled message to Iran that Sunnis would not convert to Shiaism and that his country knows its "role as the state where the message (of Islam) began."

Meanwhile, two senior Saudi clerics declared this month that Shiites were infidels and heretics, describing them as "the most vicious enemy of Muslims."

As for the open battle, look no further than Lebanon. What began as a mainly political struggle between the Hezbollah (Shia)-led opposition and the Sunni/Christian/Druze government of Fouad Siniora is taking an increasing sectarian tone in spontaneous clashes between the youngest of Lebanon's citizens. The Beirut Arab University tiff that turned into an all-out deadly battle raised fears the Sunni-Shia clash was erupting without warning, among those with no memory of the civil war that devastated Lebanon for 15 years. Young, angry people fighting for what they believe to be their identity.

Brace yourself, without strong intelligent leadership in the region to turn things around quickly, many say there can only be more conflict to come.
http://www.cnn.com/exchange/blogs/in.the.field/
Khadgar
01-02-2007, 23:26
Likely so, I expect given our inept foreign policy we'll soon see Iran declaring war on either us or Israel.
Soviestan
01-02-2007, 23:28
I imagine it will.
Gauthier
01-02-2007, 23:29
Likely so, I expect given our inept foreign policy we'll soon see Iran declaring war on either us or Israel.

Il Douche's obstinate and sociopathic decision-making will only end up solidifying Ahmedinejad's rule. Which is sad because despite how he's the Hard Right's favorite MidEast bogeyman, Mahmoud's polls back home are falling like Bush's and even the mullahs in charge told him to basically shut the fuck up.

Making offensive moves against Iran will only alienate the true moderates and give the hardcores a "WE TOLD YOU SO" blank check to continue running Iran as a mullahcracy.
PsychoticDan
01-02-2007, 23:30
Likely so, I expect given our inept foreign policy we'll soon see Iran declaring war on either us or Israel.

What I see is Saudi Arabia fighting a proxy war against Iran in Iraq after we leave with our tails between our legs.
Yootopia
01-02-2007, 23:30
See as the US' foreign policy is ludicrously inept ("we want to talk / actually, you are part of the Axis of evil") that it will be soon, aye. Gutted.
Congo--Kinshasa
01-02-2007, 23:30
I believe "Fuck you, Bush" sums things up nicely.
Sel Appa
01-02-2007, 23:54
Possibly...
Greyenivol Colony
02-02-2007, 00:48
Hmm... nah, I don't think so.

Iraq is the battleground here. We're not going to see any warzone opening/expanding into the neighbouring nations. Those other nations generally have adequate policing abilities.

I think we are going to see increasing levels of intervention by Iranian and Saudi proxies, and the foreshadowing of this conflict is making everyone involved need to take sides... including us.
Rubiconic Crossings
02-02-2007, 01:00
Too early to tell yet.
Sumamba Buwhan
02-02-2007, 01:06
Well they are exporting the tactics they are learning/developing in Iraq and applying them in other places apparently
South Lizasauria
02-02-2007, 01:20
It may already be happening. $150/barrel, here we come.


http://www.cnn.com/exchange/blogs/in.the.field/

Yes it will. I stand by my statement that WWIII is coming soon.:(
Laquasa Isle
02-02-2007, 01:27
If it did, I hope we'd give up this whole "spend more on the military than the rest of the world combined, but be a pussy when it comes to dealing with threats" thing. The Iraq mess wasn't that we weren't prepared, we didn't attack them full on! If we did, we'd have been out of there years ago. For god's sakes, we've got the most power in the world, I say, why not damn use it? If it becomes a war, I hope we slaughter Iran.
Captain pooby
02-02-2007, 01:37
I doubt it.

There are still a lot of embers smoldering in the middle east, ones that started WELL before the Iraq war. 9-11 and Bin laden proved that he could strike the US and make it hurt. Now many groups that weren't very active flared up. And as a result, young arab men flocked to Bin laden's camps, etc. Don't forget the maddrassas in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.....
Captain pooby
02-02-2007, 01:42
Hmm... nah, I don't think so.

Iraq is the battleground here. We're not going to see any warzone opening/expanding into the neighbouring nations. Those other nations generally have adequate policing abilities.

I think we are going to see increasing levels of intervention by Iranian and Saudi proxies, and the foreshadowing of this conflict is making everyone involved need to take sides... including us.

Iran and Syria are both aiding the Iraqi insurgency. They need to quit. Of course, we're also hammering Iran with the help of Saudi arabia.
PsychoticDan
02-02-2007, 02:05
Of course, we're also hammering Iran with the help of Saudi arabia.

How? If you're talking about the supposed conspiracy between the US and SA to keep the price of oil low to starve Iran for money, that went out the window Tuesday when SA announced that they had cut 1 million barrels/day of production over the last six months, more than twice as much as they said they would, and announced further cuts of over 150,000 barrels a day that were to take place today.
Zilam
02-02-2007, 02:27
Hopefully. I'd like to see a few people I don't like get drafted, where as I am a conscientious objector :)
Vetalia
02-02-2007, 02:30
How? If you're talking about the supposed conspiracy between the US and SA to keep the price of oil low to starve Iran for money, that went out the window Tuesday when SA announced that they had cut 1 million barrels/day of production over the last six months, more than twice as much as they said they would, and announced further cuts of over 150,000 barrels a day that were to take place today.

Ironically, really high oil prices would probably hurt Iran a lot more than cheap oil. Not only would it negatively impact demand, but it would also force Iran to spend a ton of money buying refined products in order to meet their needs, which would drive up their current account deficit and worsen inflation even further.
New Ritlina
02-02-2007, 02:37
Huh.

Regional conflict.

Sounds somewhat familiar...
Newer Kiwiland
02-02-2007, 02:55
If the US pull out probably...

Currently the conflict is between Iraqi factions. With the U.S. military there no one dares getting involved openly (as in sending in troops to support their protege), but I think even Saudi Arabia said they'll intervene if American troops leave? Then it'll become a general Islamic war.
Ghost Tigers Rise
02-02-2007, 03:02
It may already be happening. $150/barrel, here we come.

Really, that's what you care about?
Greyenivol Colony
02-02-2007, 03:15
Ironically, really high oil prices would probably hurt Iran a lot more than cheap oil. Not only would it negatively impact demand, but it would also force Iran to spend a ton of money buying refined products in order to meet their needs, which would drive up their current account deficit and worsen inflation even further.

Not really. Oil is an exception to the rules of supply/demand. The demand for oil remains more or less constant despite what the prices are doing. Average motorists only make up a tiny fraction of the oil consuming market, the majority of petrochemicals are sold to very large organisations that can/must afford to pay a little bit more.
Vetalia
02-02-2007, 03:20
Not really. Oil is an exception to the rules of supply/demand. The demand for oil remains more or less constant despite what the prices are doing. Average motorists only make up a tiny fraction of the oil consuming market, the majority of petrochemicals are sold to very large organisations that can/must afford to pay a little bit more.

Actually, light-duty vehicles like cars, trucks, and SUVs consume over 70% of all petroleum used worldwide and that percentage is rising over time as more and more companies switch from oil to natural gas or synthetic feedstocks.

However, it is correct that demand for oil is highly inflexible. However, as you move out on to longer and longer time frames, the demand curve becomes a lot more flexible and demand for oil can drop considerably. For example, in the 1970's and 1980's companies were capable of cutting their energy intensity by over 50% despite increasing production; they can't do that overnight, but they can in a year's time.

Other examples would be people buying more efficient cars, building mass transit, alternative fuels, new technology, and so on...however, it takes time to do this so it's not immediate.
PsychoticDan
02-02-2007, 06:47
Really, that's what you care about?

I care about it's effects, which would be worldwide and devestating - especially to the poor and middle class.
Soviestan
02-02-2007, 06:55
Hopefully. I'd like to see a few people I don't like get drafted, where as I am a conscientious objector :)

that makes two of us.:) There's no way they will get me to fight other Muslims
Nova Magna Germania
02-02-2007, 07:01
It may already be happening. $150/barrel, here we come.


http://www.cnn.com/exchange/blogs/in.the.field/

I think $150/barrel would be a great thing. Or $200 maybe. It'd give a great incentive for the development of green cars...
Siap
02-02-2007, 07:03
Will it become a wider war?

I don't know for sure, but I'm happy I live sufficiently far away from any major city.

BTW, Israeli Military Industries has a really nice website, but I can't find the 'potential investors' section.
Delator
02-02-2007, 07:07
Iran and Syria are both aiding the Iraqi insurgency. They need to quit. Of course, we're also hammering Iran with the help of Saudi arabia.

It may already be happening. $150/barrel, here we come.

This is my sincerest hope. In my mind it is the only way that anything good will come out of the whole Iraq mess.

How is that, you ask?

An immedeate U.S. pullout would certainly be followed by conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran (and Syria). Whether by proxy, or direct intervention, these nations are going to be busy.

That significantly reduces the chances that these nations will have the time, resources, or inclination to support terrorist action against North America and Europe. The terrorist organizations are largely independently acting, but with their sources of funding and weapons busy elsewhere, they will not have anywhere near the capability to strike Western nations as they do now.

As for oil prices...GOOD!

I don't care if it causes a recession, or even a depression. The sooner we get ourselves off the oil-binge and start seriously moving towards alternative energy sources, the better.

If it takes a SNAFU like a Middle-East war and $150/barrel oil prices to get people to demand a more rapid solution to the issue, then so be it.