NationStates Jolt Archive

Go 'Stros!

I've started this thread the previous 3 years so why not this year?

Pitchers and Catchers are still 3 and a half weeks away from reporting to Spring Training, but we can still talk baseball now since there is only 1 more football game left.

Who do you like going into this year?

I'm going to take my usual homer stance and pick Da Sox.

I'll pick the Mets, although they haven't done any of the necessary additions to their fragile and unreliable pitching staff. The only way they can get farther than they did last year is if some of their young pitchers really step up and show top of the rotation ability. They haven't regressed, but the other teams in the NL are not going to be as pathetic as they were last year, it's going to be really tough for the Mets to slide into the playoffs like they did last year.

I am so pumped about this season.

The Yankees finally look like they are wisening up and going for young, fresh talent. Hughes is looking to make his major league debut, and if the Yankees turned down SORIANO in order to keep this kid, he's got to be good. And the return of Andy Pettitte won't hurt either.

With that said, I think the National League will probably end up being more of the same. The Mets didn't really make any big moves, but neither did anyone else in their division. I could see maybe the Marlins grabbing the wild card, but other than that I'd still expect the NL to replay like last year, although the Brewers could surprise us.

The American League is always tough to predict. Boston has a better shot since they've finally started to focus on their lackluster pitching, but I don't think they'll make the playoffs this year; not with the AL Central being as good as it is. I'd say its probably the Twins and the White sox this year from the Central. Detroit is tough to predict, especially when you have a club that revolves around its pitching staff so heavily.

This season should be interesting.

I am so pumped about this season.

The Yankees finally look like they are wisening up and going for young, fresh talent. Hughes is looking to make his major league debut, and if the Yankees turned down SORIANO in order to keep this kid, he's got to be good. And the return of Andy Pettitte won't hurt either.

With that said, I think the National League will probably end up being more of the same. The Mets didn't really make any big moves, but neither did anyone else in their division. I could see maybe the Marlins grabbing the wild card, but other than that I'd still expect the NL to replay like last year, although the Brewers could surprise us.

The American League is always tough to predict. Boston has a better shot since they've finally started to focus on their lackluster pitching, but I don't think they'll make the playoffs this year; not with the AL Central being as good as it is. I'd say its probably the Twins and the White sox this year from the Central. Detroit is tough to predict, especially when you have a club that revolves around its pitching staff so heavily.

This season should be interesting.

Your a Yankee fan? :(

And there seems to be rumors circulating that Clemens is coming back to pitch in the pinstipes. As if they needed more help.

All baseball season means to me is that that on the rare occasion that I’m home in the middle of the day on a weekday, baseball's on that one cable station that Seinfeld is usually on because the guy that owns the station also owns a baseball team.

All baseball season means to me is that that on the rare occasion that I’m home in the middle of the day on a weekday, baseball's on that one cable station that Seinfeld is usually on because the guy that owns the station also owns a baseball team.

There aren't that many weekday day games...Maybe once every two weeks. You should be safe :)

Your a Yankee fan? :(

And there seems to be rumors circulating that Clemens is coming back to pitch in the pinstipes. As if they needed more help.

They do need the help. The Yankees pitching is what has been holding them back since 2001. Clemens has put up good numbers for the Stros, but realize that it is against crappy NL teams. The AL lit him up during his last season with the Yankees.

Outside of Wang, I don't think the Yankees have a good starter. Pettite might do well, but I still think he isn't as good as he was in the late 90s. The Yankees will win their division and then be out in the ALDS. Their pitching will kill them in October.

There aren't that many weekday day games...Maybe once every two weeks. You should be safe :)

He might be referring to WGN's Superstation. The Flubs have a ton of day games when they are home because the city limits the number of night games they can have. BTW, WGN is owned by the Cubune Co. which owns the Flubs.

My note on the Cubs is that the Cubune Co. will find out that $100 million can't buy you a championship. Expect them to finish no better than 4th place. Outside of Zambozo, they have no pitchers. Prior and Wood will be injured, Hill is also injury prone. There is also the fact they have no bullpen.

The Flubs are really screwed here. Jim Hendry's off-season deals have now locked up $500 million in guaranteed contracts they have to pay out. That gives them little room for future deals.

They overpaid for Lilly and Marquis. Neither of them is worth the $ 10 million a year they will be getting. I don't even think either of the 2 deserves to be on a Major League roster outside of being a low paid LRP who you use when you're getting blown out.

I am so pumped about this season.

The Yankees finally look like they are wisening up and going for young, fresh talent. Hughes is looking to make his major league debut, and if the Yankees turned down SORIANO in order to keep this kid, he's got to be good. And the return of Andy Pettitte won't hurt either.

With that said, I think the National League will probably end up being more of the same. The Mets didn't really make any big moves, but neither did anyone else in their division. I could see maybe the Marlins grabbing the wild card, but other than that I'd still expect the NL to replay like last year, although the Brewers could surprise us.

The American League is always tough to predict. Boston has a better shot since they've finally started to focus on their lackluster pitching, but I don't think they'll make the playoffs this year; not with the AL Central being as good as it is. I'd say its probably the Twins and the White sox this year from the Central. Detroit is tough to predict, especially when you have a club that revolves around its pitching staff so heavily.

This season should be interesting.

Yankees, FTW! Pettitte's back? Excellent. I'm getting to see one of the games in Denver this year, as a birthday present.

As for the National League, oh, what the hell ... Rockies all the way! (heh, won't everyone be astonished when that happens!)

As for the National League, oh, what the hell ... Rockies all the way! (heh, won't everyone be astonished when that happens!)

I would normally laugh at such a statement, but the National League is such a joke that really any team except the Cubs should be competitive in it.

I know my team doesn't have a hope in hell of winning, being stuck in the same division as the New York 'Juiced-up' Yankees and the Boston 'Roid's the way' Red Sox, but, I'm still cheering for the Toronto Jays anyway, soo... SNAH!!

I know my team doesn't have a hope in hell of winning, being stuck in the same division as the New York 'Juiced-up' Yankees and the Boston 'Roid's the way' Red Sox, but, I'm still cheering for the Toronto Jays anyway, soo... SNAH!!

Toronto signed my all-time favorite player during the off-season. I'll be pulling for The Big Hurt as he hits the big 500.

I would normally laugh at such a statement, but the National League is such a joke that really any team except the Cubs should be competitive in it.

It was a bit weird last year when the Rockies were in 1st place in their division in July. Luckily, the universe straightened itself out and they sank to the bottom of the pond by the end of the season.

Current projections put the Yanks and Sox in a dead heat in the AL East right now, though I haven't seen the Jays included yet. The Jays are certainly the most efficient team of the three (by marginal dollars per marginal win). The Jays could have made ita real race last year if they'd had a league-average pitcher instead of Josh Towers.

The Red Sox should have the strongest pitching of the three (though the best pitcher in the division is Roy Halladay).

I, as it happens, am a Mariners fan, so I got to see my M's trade away my favourite player for a box of rocks. Seriously - Chris Snelling and Emiliano Fruto for Jose Vidro? Snelling is better, younger, and cheaper than Vidro, but for the privilege of making the team worse, older, and more expensive, they also gave away a promising 22-year-old reliever with a live arm.

The Red Sox have some good starters, but most of them are injury prone and they have no closer since Papelbon will be in the rotation. I forgot the name of the Japanese pitcher they have, but I bet he fizzles out after Major Leaguers figure him out (which has happened to every Japanese pitcher who has entered the Majors with a new pitch).

I cant wait for blernsball season

http://www.progressiveboink.com/justin/Futurama/clown2.jpg

hooray for the 7th inning grope!

The Red Sox have some good starters, but most of them are injury prone and they have no closer since Papelbon will be in the rotation. I forgot the name of the Japanese pitcher they have, but I bet he fizzles out after Major Leaguers figure him out (which has happened to every Japanese pitcher who has entered the Majors with a new pitch).

He dosn't rely on his "gyroball". He should be a top of the rotation pitcher. It's not a matter of him being figured out, it's a matter of him having MLB quality stuff, and an incredible variety of pitches.

Toronto signed my all-time favorite player during the off-season. I'll be pulling for The Big Hurt as he hits the big 500.

'BIg hurt'? Meaning?

He dosn't rely on his "gyroball". He should be a top of the rotation pitcher. It's not a matter of him being figured out, it's a matter of him having MLB quality stuff, and an incredible variety of pitches.
In fact, Matsuzaka rarely throws his gyroball because he doesn't think it's very good (I've read papers written by the physicist who invented the pitch, and I can see why it's hard to throw).

But even without it he's a dominant pitcher. At worst, he's a solid #2 pitcher. At best, he's the second-best pitcher in MLB (behind Johan).

They overpaid for Lilly and Marquis. Neither of them is worth the $ 10 million a year they will be getting. I don't even think either of the 2 deserves to be on a Major League roster outside of being a low paid LRP who you use when you're getting blown out.
Lilly's a fairly durable league-average pitcher. So that makes his contract a better deal than the one Kansas City gave Gil Meche.

Oh, and Lilly occasionally will punch his manager in the mouth, so that could be entertaining. I wish he were in Seattle so he could slug Mike Hargrove.

'BIg hurt'? Meaning?
Frank Thomas. That's his nickname. "The Big Hurt"

He dosn't rely on his "gyroball". He should be a top of the rotation pitcher. It's not a matter of him being figured out, it's a matter of him having MLB quality stuff, and an incredible variety of pitches.

In all honesty, I don't really expect much out of most of the Japanese pitchers.

They tend to have good rookie seasons or at least good first halves. The league takes a few months time to figure out a new pitch. They will figure it out, and then it will be up to Matsuzaka to adjust to the hitters. How he responds to them once they figure out his pitch will determine how his career goes.

Outside of Hideo Nomo, I really haven't seen many Japanese pitchers find success in the Majors for this reason. See Shingo Takatsu. He was the closer on the Sox in 2004. He had a pitch known as the "frisbee." It went 60 mph and seemed to violate the laws of physics. By September 2004, batters began to figure him out. By May of 2005, he had lost the role of closer. By June, he was released.

The BoSox have now put over $100 million in a pitcher who I bet will fizzle. After all, the Japanese Leagues are good, but they aren't the Majors. I'd rate them as probably being high AAA. After all, that's where the American ballplayers who can't cut it in the Majors go if they don't want to be in AAA.

Like all AAA pitchers who are called up, it will be a gamble as to whether or not he makes it in 'the show.'

Frank Thomas. That's his nickname. "The Big Hurt"

Yep and that nickname was given to him by none other than Sox TV play-by-play announcer Ken "Hawk" Harrelson.

You can put it on the boooaaaarrrrd, YES!

In all honesty, I don't really expect much out of most of the Japanese pitchers.

They tend to have good rookie seasons or at least good first halves. The league takes a few months time to figure out a new pitch. They will figure it out, and then it will be up to Matsuzaka to adjust to the hitters. How he responds to them once they figure out his pitch will determine how his career goes.

Outside of Hideo Nomo, I really haven't seen many Japanese pitchers find success in the Majors for this reason. See Shingo Takatsu. He was the closer on the Sox in 2004. He had a pitch known as the "frisbee." It went 60 mph and seemed to violate the laws of physics. By September 2004, batters began to figure him out. By May of 2005, he had lost the role of closer. By June, he was released.

The BoSox have now put over $100 million in a pitcher who I bet will fizzle. After all, the Japanese Leagues are good, but they aren't the Majors. I'd rate them as probably being high AAA. After all, that's where the American ballplayers who can't cut it in the Majors go if they don't want to be in AAA.

Like all AAA pitchers who are called up, it will be a gamble as to whether or not he makes it in 'the show.'
Takatsu did rely on a trick pitch, so there was really no reason to expect his success to continue. But Kazuhiro Sasaki did well until he was injured. And Nomo, as you mentioned, did well for quite a while.

Matsuzaka is a superior pitcher to either of those guys, though. Your comment about AAA pitchers relies on the assumption that performances in the minors aren't projectable to the majors, but they are. There's some great math covering this over at baseballprospectus.com (Clay Davenport translates stats between leagues).

Yep and that nickname was given to him by none other than Sox TV play-by-play announcer Ken "Hawk" Harrelson.

You can put it on the boooaaaarrrrd, YES!
I hate Hawk Harrelson.

OFFICAL PICKS:

AL EAST: RED SOX
AL CENT: WHITE SOX
AL WEST: ANGELS
WILD CARD: YANKEES

NL EAST: METS
NL CENTRAL: BREWERS (they could do it)
NL WEST: D'BACKS
WILD CARD: MARLINS


PLAYOFFS:

BOSTON 3-1 OVER LOS ANGELES
CHICAGO 3-1 OVER NEW YORK

NEW YORK 3-0 OVER ARIZONA
MILWAUKEE 3-2 OVER FLORIDA

BOSTON 4-2 OVER CHICAGO
NEW YORK 4-2 OVER MILWAUKEE

NEW YORK METS OVER BOSTON RED SOX 4 GAMES TO 1

Takatsu did rely on a trick pitch, so there was really no reason to expect his success to continue. But Kazuhiro Sasaki did well until he was injured. And Nomo, as you mentioned, did well for quite a while.

Matsuzaka is a superior pitcher to either of those guys, though. Your comment about AAA pitchers relies on the assumption that performances in the minors aren't projectable to the majors, but they are. There's some great math covering this over at baseballprospectus.com (Clay Davenport translates stats between leagues).

I will tell you right now that AAA performance has nothing to do with MLB performance. Most of the so called "can't miss prospects" that get hyped up by BP and ESPN's Morons Tonight, err I mean Baseball Tonight crew end up busting. That's how it is in general with prospects. Until we see how that player does when he gets called up to the show, you can't predict sucess.+

Oh and BP is crap at projecting prospects. I can create a long list of White Sox prospects over the past few years that their BS VORP and PECOTA ratings suggested would do well. They didn't. Jeremy Reed, Neal Cotts, John Adkins, Jeff Borchardt to name a few. Then the prospects that they predicted disaster for end up doing the best. See Bobby Jenks. There is also the fact that BP employs brain dead worshipers of Billy Beane. Moneyball is BS.

OFFICAL PICKS:

AL EAST: Yankees
AL CENT: WHITE SOX
AL WEST: ANGELS
WILD CARD: TIGERS

NL EAST: METS
NL CENTRAL: CARDINALS
NL WEST: D'BACKS
WILD CARD: PHILLIES


PLAYOFFS:

ALCS MATCH-UP: White Sox and Yankees

NLCS MATCH-UP: Mets and Cardinals

World Series: Sox vs. Cards

White Sox will be the 2007 World Champions

I will tell you right now that AAA performance has nothing to do with MLB performance. Most of the so called "can't miss prospects" that get hyped up by BP and ESPN's Morons Tonight, err I mean Baseball Tonight crew end up busting. That's how it is in general with prospects. Until we see how that player does when he gets called up to the show, you can't predict sucess.+

Oh and BP is crap at projecting prospects. I can create a long list of White Sox prospects over the past few years that their BS VORP and PECOTA ratings suggested would do well. They didn't. Jeremy Reed, Neal Cotts, John Adkins, Jeff Borchardt to name a few. Then the prospects that they predicted disaster for end up doing the best. See Bobby Jenks. There is also the fact that BP employs brain dead worshipers of Billy Beane. Moneyball is BS.
And yet, the A's continue to rack up 90 wins/season despite having a low payroll...

Have you ever bothered to learn how PECOTA works, or indeed any projection system? Diamond Mind? ZiPS?

Reed was hardly a can't miss prospect, but even so he suffered a traumatic wrist injury and lost all his power. That's hardly the fault of the projection. And from Chi-Town's point of view, he got you Freddy Garcia.

And BP even points out how hard it is to project pitchers, because they suffer so many injuries that can reduce their effectiveness. Hence their acronym, TINSTAAPP - There is no such thing as a pitching prospect. They learned that lesson from Ryan Anderson.

http://www.nearlygood.com/smilies/baaa.gif More useless so called "sports" to take up valuable TV time.

OFFICAL PICKS:
Official, eh? I wouldn't make those at least until spring training started and I had a rough idea what final rosters would look like.
AL EAST: Yankees
That's reasonable. New York, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa Bay looks likely for that division, though a bit of luck could move Toronto up or Baltimore down. The top 3 should be fairly close.
AL CENT: WHITE SOX
I'm currently projecting the White Sox to finish fourth in that division behind Minnesota, Detroit, and Cleveland. But you're still way better than KC.
AL WEST: ANGELS
I'm also projecting the Angels to finish fourth. The A's are the class of that division, with the Rangers as their only real threat. Seattle should be able to crawl into third, though, leaving the Angels in the cellar.
WILD CARD: TIGERS
Maybe. The Central might be too competitive for that with just the one patsy (KC - and KC has some good young talent). I'd say the East produces the wild card.
NL EAST: METS
NL CENTRAL: CARDINALS
NL WEST: D'BACKS
WILD CARD: PHILLIES
I don't generally project the NL, but I think it might hinge on whether Barry Bonds goes to jail. That would turn the Giants from a good team to a terrible one overnight, and depending when that happens it will have a huge impact of the schedule.
PLAYOFFS:
In a short series between two playoff-quality teams, any result is reasonably likely. I'm not confident they're predictable.

I do concede it is too early for serious predictions. I'm just making them for shits and giggles. I will of course revise them as opening day approaches.

As for the AL Central: The Twinkies will finish 4th. They have been able to compete because of pitching. That is something they are going to lack next year. It has already been announces that Liriano is done for 2007. That's what Gardenhire gets for rushing him back in September when he should've shut him down for the season. Radke is gone due to the fact he retired as a result of his torn rotator cuff. Silva sucks, so don't even expect a thing from him. Outside of Santana, the Twinkies don't have good starting pitchers.

As for the Indians, they have Sowers and Crooked Cap Fatbathia. The rest of their staff is average or sub-par. Their bull-pen is a complete mess and will forfeit many of the leads their 1-2 punch gives them. A bad bullpen can kill a team. See what it did for the Sox last year. They should finish 3rd.

Well, the Tribe picked up Trot Nixon. I hope he can add some veterancy and leadership to the team, and play a mean game in the outfield.

It would be nice to get back to the playoffs.

Well, the Tribe picked up Trot Nixon. I hope he can add some veterancy and leadership to the team, and play a mean game in the outfield.

It would be nice to get back to the playoffs.

The Tribe will be above .500. Unfortunately for them, their pen will keep them out of the post-season.

After-all, the AL Central is the toughest division in baseball. They had 3 90 win teams last season.

The Indians should have Andrew Miller up by mid-season. That's a big wild-card.

OFFICAL PICKS:

AL EAST: RED SOX
AL CENT: TWINS
AL WEST: ANGELS
WILD CARD: YANKEES

NL EAST: METS
NL CENTRAL: BREWERS (they could do it)
NL WEST: D'BACKS
WILD CARD: MARLINS


PLAYOFFS:

BOSTON 3-1 OVER LOS ANGELES
MINNESOTA 3-1 OVER NEW YORK

NEW YORK 3-0 OVER ARIZONA
MILWAUKEE 3-2 OVER FLORIDA

MINNESOTA 4-2 OVER BOSTON
NEW YORK 4-2 OVER MILWAUKEE

MINNESOTA OVER NEW YORK METS 4 GAMES TO 1

Corrected and reposted. :D

I do concede it is too early for serious predictions. I'm just making them for shits and giggles. I will of course revise them as opening day approaches.

As for the AL Central: The Twinkies will finish 1st. They have been able to compete because of pitching. That is something they are not going to lack next year. Even though it has already been announced that Liriano is done for 2007. *snip bunch of stuff that doesn't matter*.

As for the Indians, they have Sowers and Crooked Cap Fatbathia. The rest of their staff is average or sub-par. Their bull-pen is a complete mess and will forfeit many of the leads their 1-2 punch gives them. A bad bullpen can kill a team. See what it did for the Sox last year. They should finish 3rd. Corrected.:D

Less than a week until pitchers and catchers report and Yahoo opening up FB.

Here's a question, who will be the sleepers this year in Fantasy Baseball?

Corrected.:D

I respect the Twinkies, but in all honesty, they are going nowhere with neither Radke or Liriano.