NationStates Jolt Archive

Let's say things will continue to go down hill. By the middle of next year the government will only really exist on paper, most police and military units trained will listen to local commanders and ethnic loyalties rather than orders from Baghdad.

People continue to fall victim to ethnicity-related violence. Then, one day, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim reckons he's got enough, travels to Tehran and asks Iran to restore order in the south.

Iran agrees, and wants to send troops to southern Iraq to protect the Shia population, presumably the oil fields, and just generally restore a sense of normality.

What would you think about that?

And yes, I'm asking this question because if things don't get better, and the US begins to remove itself from the mess, Iran is definitely one of the most likely suspects to get involved.

Bush has said they arent leaving anytime soon.

This may cost his party the election in 08.

Bush has said they arent leaving anytime soon.
Britain is going to, and the Report (as well as the current climate in Washington) suggest that the US Military will phase out its presence on the streets, and retreat to various bases, from which they'd train Iraqi units.

Nuke 'em! NUUUUUUUUUKE 'em!

Okay, now that we have that out the way, we would have to do one of two things. First, reestablish ourselves as occupiers in Iraq, topple the Ivory Tower government, and tell Iraq to try again as far as leaders go, complete with a systematic uniting, by any means necessary, of the splintered governmental groups, and driving Iran back out, or let Iran do as it pleases.

The problem with the first is that it would undoubtedly cost many lives, much money, and public support for the war would hit rock bottom, and start tunneling.

The problem with the second is that Iran doesn't love us much, and we'd be allowing them to expand, and throwing out the cause of Democracy in Iraq.

So it all comes down to who's president at the time. If it's the middle of 2007, it's Bush. Pulling out would mean he would lose a whole lot of face, and I don't know that he's willing to do that. Which means that unless Congress cuts off funding, it's entirely possible we'd go with option A.

What we need to do is get a coalition of Muslim nations in the region to put together a multinational force to help restore order thus reducing influence of any one nation. There is precedence for this. Most natios in the Middle east participated in the first Gulf War. Hell, Iran cooperated with us in Afghanistan. Syria sent combat troops to fight along side us in GW1. The only reason this hasn't been handled well on a regional basis is because Bush is stupid, arrogant and stubborn. All of Iraq;s eighbors have a vested interest in stability in Iraq - witness the massive wall Saudi Arabia is building on it's northern border. If we don't get a coalition together all these nations may well end up at war with each other with Iraq being the battleground.

I come from a military family. I know what we are doing will benifit Iraq in the long run. My dad helped protect schools while they were bieng built and he was standing outside the polls protecting voters while the elections were going on.

We need to support our troops over there. By helping Iraq, we are making life long allies. If Iran were to invade Iraq and Bush sent out the call, I will there to answer it. I will serve my country with honor, as should every able bodied male.

In the International Diplomatic Simulation that we ran for my Foreign Policy Decision Making class, this exact situation happened.

I come from a military family. I know what we are doing will benifit Iraq in the long run. My dad helped protect schools while they were bieng built and he was standing outside the polls protecting voters while the elections were going on.

We need to support our troops over there. By helping Iraq, we are making life long allies. If Iran were to invade Iraq and Bush sent out the call, I will there to answer it. I will serve my country with honor, as should every able bodied male.

Young, naive and yet still sexist.

By invading Iraq you made life long enemies.
The longer your guys are there the more enemies they make.
I'm not saying your Dad is a bad guy, but soldiers can be misused by
governments and your government certainly did misuse their armed
forces to commit a criminal act.
If you went to Iraq at the behest of your government
whether to fight Iraqis or Iranians or anyone else, you would be
bringing dishonour on yourself and your country.

Women can and do serve in armed forces of many countries including yours,
how are they supposed to feel about you not even conceiving of them
serving their country with honour.

In the International Diplomatic Simulation that we ran for my Foreign Policy Decision Making class, this exact situation happened.
And, what did you guys come up with?

And, what did you guys come up with?

Well, the US reinvaded with the aid of Russia and China (which was more than a bit weird), bombed the hell out of Iran and divided Iraq up amongst themselves as spoils of war.

I was the President of Taiwan, and as such, I had nothing to do with it.

Well, the US reinvaded with the aid of Russia and China (which was more than a bit weird), bombed the hell out of Iran and divided Iraq up amongst themselves as spoils of war.

I was the President of Taiwan, and as such, I had nothing to do with it.
:D

Seriously though: The US needs help. They have no credibility with the average Iraqi, and they're sick of losing people without making progress.

Isn't there anyone who would actually see it as an opportunity? The Iranians would make the perfect peacekeepers in the south.

I suppose the problem would be that Iraq would probably end up in pieces.

I come from a military family. I know what we are doing will benifit Iraq in the long run. My dad helped protect schools while they were bieng built and he was standing outside the polls protecting voters while the elections were going on.

We need to support our troops over there. By helping Iraq, we are making life long allies. If Iran were to invade Iraq and Bush sent out the call, I will there to answer it. I will serve my country with honor, as should every able bodied male.

does being uber-patriotic make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside? Do you think for yourself or just blindly go where you demi-god president sends you?

It's good to defend one's country but you need to ask why when your country asks you to invade another country. The reasons for the Iraq invasion were more than a wrong, they were a lie. Many americans and many more innocent Iraqi's have died because not enough people asked why.

:D

Seriously though: The US needs help. They have no credibility with the average Iraqi, and they're sick of losing people without making progress.

Isn't there anyone who would actually see it as an opportunity? The Iranians would make the perfect peacekeepers in the south.

I suppose the problem would be that Iraq would probably end up in pieces.

I think it's a pretty good idea, as Iraq was designed after the first world war with the intent of keeping the Arabs and Persians at each others throats. I say knife the south off and give it to Iran, knife the west off and give it to Saudi Arabia and Jordan and let the Kurds have their own little state in the north. It makes reasonably decent sense in my personal opinion.

Don't forget the fact that if Iraq splits, the Kurds will form Kurdistan, which will result in Turkey invading Northern Iraq, and possibly commit Genocide against the Kurds. So I'm guessing.

We'll have Syria seize Westernmost Iraq, Iran taking most of South Iraq, Saudi Arabia taking a small 'buffer' zone. And turkey taking north Iraq.

After that Iraq wll end up being the no man's land for future wars between Syria\Saudi Arabia, and Iran.

What we need to do is get a coalition of Muslim nations in the region to put together a multinational force to help restore order thus reducing influence of any one nation. There is precedence for this. Most natios in the Middle east participated in the first Gulf War. Hell, Iran cooperated with us in Afghanistan. Syria sent combat troops to fight along side us in GW1. The only reason this hasn't been handled well on a regional basis is because Bush is stupid, arrogant and stubborn. All of Iraq;s eighbors have a vested interest in stability in Iraq - witness the massive wall Saudi Arabia is building on it's northern border. If we don't get a coalition together all these nations may well end up at war with each other with Iraq being the battleground.
Now, on this, I can agree with you. That would be the best possible course -- a multinational peacekeeping force led by Muslim nations. Unfortunately, Bush has so squandered our international cred, I don't know that we could put such a coalition together. Maybe Iran could do it for us. (Man, sometimes the irony of Bush's failures sticks in my throat.)

Frankly, I'll be surprised if there still is an Iraq 5 years from now. I won't be surprised, however, if Iran ends up controlling all those oil fields -- and makes its own side deal with the Saudis.

I think it's a pretty good idea, as Iraq was designed after the first world war with the intent of keeping the Arabs and Persians at each others throats. I say knife the south off and give it to Iran, knife the west off and give it to Saudi Arabia and Jordan and let the Kurds have their own little state in the north. It makes reasonably decent sense in my personal opinion.
I doubt the Sunni Iraqis want to be part of anything other than Iraq. And the same might go for the Shia, though these days Iraqis seem to be killing other Iraqis with great enthusiasm.

Still, I don't see how Saudi Arabia would be involved in splitting it up. Syria, more likely.

Let's say things will continue to go down hill. By the middle of next year the government will only really exist on paper, most police and military units trained will listen to local commanders and ethnic loyalties rather than orders from Baghdad.

People continue to fall victim to ethnicity-related violence. Then, one day, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim reckons he's got enough, travels to Tehran and asks Iran to restore order in the south.

Iran agrees, and wants to send troops to southern Iraq to protect the Shia population, presumably the oil fields, and just generally restore a sense of normality.

What would you think about that?

And yes, I'm asking this question because if things don't get better, and the US begins to remove itself from the mess, Iran is definitely one of the most likely suspects to get involved.

What if the generals that tried to kill Hitler had killed Hitler? What if Japan had not attacked Pearl Harbor? What if Booth had not assinated Lincoln? What if...http://www.nearlygood.com/smilies/superman.gif had been real?

Don't forget the fact that if Iraq splits, the Kurds will form Kurdistan, which will result in Turkey invading Northern Iraq, and possibly commit Genocide against the Kurds.

In my opinion, this is the one sticking point in the idea breaking up Iraq. If Iraq were broken up, it would resolve the problems of the Arab dominated areas, but create this problem for the Kurds, who don't deserve it. If I were king of this forest, I'd be working like hell on the Turks to find away around their problems with the Kurds and get a treaty to allow for a free Kurdistan. Without such a protection, the Kurds would be in serious trouble.

What if the generals that tried to kill Hitler had killed Hitler? What if Japan had not attacked Pearl Harbor? What if Booth had not assinated Lincoln? What if...http://www.nearlygood.com/smilies/superman.gif had been real?
This isn't alternative history, this is a real option. SCIRI loves Iran, as does Talabani.

Iran has said that it would help with restoring order a few weeks ago, but hasn't said how they intended to do it.

But if things get worse, and Britain leaves the streets (as they say they will), then there is certainly the possibility of Iran getting involved more directly.

What if the generals that tried to kill Hitler had killed Hitler? What if Japan had not attacked Pearl Harbor? What if Booth had not assinated Lincoln? What if...http://www.nearlygood.com/smilies/superman.gif had been real?

And what if he had been Russian?