NationStates Jolt Archive

This (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6174204.stm) article on Sarkozy and Royal (the two main contenders for the 2007 Presidential election) is fairly interesting. I've got to go out right now - to put my students through an exam, muahahaha! - but I'll be back to comment later.

Incidentally, despite having the same first name as me, the French guy commenting just after the article isn't me.

This (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6174204.stm) article on Sarkozy and Royal (the two main contenders for the 2007 Presidential election) is fairly interesting. I've got to go out right now - to put my students through an exam, muahahaha! - but I'll be back to comment later.

Incidentally, despite having the same first name as me, the French guy commenting just after the article isn't me.

It should be an interesting election. Though viewing it as the two main contenders seems a bit premature. Sure they are the one up in the polls now but French politics is very unpredictable. In 1995 Chirac was in third place for quiet awhile in the polls, and in the end, he bumped the other moderate Right candidate out and won the whole thing in the second round.

There are still a lot of questions. Will Sarkozy's and Royal's parties stay behind them? One rogue candidate would have to come along and they could take enough votes away to cause a problem. Will Chirac run again? He isn't polling well but it would certainly make for bloody campaign anyway.

Will there be some sort of crisis in the government that could reflect badly on Sarkozy between now and the end of April? When the riots where happening in the suburbs, Sarkozy's numbers dropped because of his handling of the situation.

Can Royal paint a clear enough picture of what she stands for? I would find it hard to believe that she could just enter on the back of being different that current system.

What about the Far Left and Far Right vote? Maybe there won't be a rogue Socialist candidate but the Left of the party might be dissatisfied with her and vote for the one of the many candidates from the other left-wing parties. Also, the FN vote is unpredictable. The FN almost always does a few percentage points better in the elections because people don't want to admit that they will vote for them when pollsters ask. A few percentage points is a big thing, especially in the presidential elections. It was less than a percentage point that meant that it was a Chirac v Le Pen in the second round instead of Chirac v Jospin as everyone assumed it would be.

Well, Royal is the chosen candidate of the PS, and I can't imagine Sarkozy deciding not to run. Of course, it's not entirely impossible for there to be two UMP candidates, but I strongly doubt Chirac will be that second one.

Then on the moderate left, Chevènement may stand and take votes away from Royal.

Royal is a bit of an enigma. She's coming across as something of a populist, saying she'll give people what they want without saying what she thinks is best... except when she makes "shock value" proposals, portraying herself as the incarnation of change and true democracy.

I really don't know whether or not she'll be able to sweep up a wide spectrum of voters. People who are in the centre or undecided may well vote for her: she's a lot closer to the centre than Sarkozy. On the other hand, she may alienate part of the PS's traditional voters by being in the "right wing" of the party. French politics in general seem to be taking a hard swing to the right...

The FN seems stable. I'm not sure how the far left will do... On the one hand, far left supporters may want to avoid another May '02 situation, and may vote PS right from the right round. On the other, Royal's rightist stance may push PS supporters to the far left...

Then on the moderate left, Chevènement may stand and take votes away from Royal.

Apparently Chevènement said he won't run if it looks as though the FN will make it to the second round.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/election-presidentielle-2007/20061113.WWW000000408_chevenement_se_retirera_si_le_pen_menace_daller_au_second_tour.html

Well, Royal is the chosen candidate of the PS, and I can't imagine Sarkozy deciding not to run. Of course, it's not entirely impossible for there to be two UMP candidates, but I strongly doubt Chirac will be that second one.

Then on the moderate left, Chevènement may stand and take votes away from Royal.

Royal is a bit of an enigma. She's coming across as something of a populist, saying she'll give people what they want without saying what she thinks is best... except when she makes "shock value" proposals, portraying herself as the incarnation of change and true democracy.

I really don't know whether or not she'll be able to sweep up a wide spectrum of voters. People who are in the centre or undecided may well vote for her: she's a lot closer to the centre than Sarkozy. On the other hand, she may alienate part of the PS's traditional voters by being in the "right wing" of the party. French politics in general seem to be taking a hard swing to the right...

The FN seems stable. I'm not sure how the far left will do... On the one hand, far left supporters may want to avoid another May '02 situation, and may vote PS right from the right round. On the other, Royal's rightist stance may push PS supporters to the far left...

True, I don't know that Chirac is really strong enough to do but there have been several hints that he might do it anyway from people close to him. I think he is waiting to see if the tide will change again.

Yeah, Chevènement sounds pretty keen on running. He was asking the people that vote for the FN to vote for him, on the assumption that only reason they vote for Le Pen is to protest against the system. Though I think that people that are protesting system by voting for Le Pen probably don't like Chevènement's ideas either. After all he ran last time and it didn't seem that the FN lost any of their vote to him. I think the only ones that would vote for him are sovereignists from the Socialists and maybe some of the Gaullists that would be unhappy with Sarkozy. Chevènement was doing better in the polls for awhile when he was attracting some of the Gaullist support away from Chirac, but they eventually realigned with Chirac. I don't know if it came down to it that they would vote of him because he is probably too Left for them.

Royal comes across a bit odd sometimes. Like the idea of the "popular juries" and sending problem youths to military training. But most of them she seems to avoid making statements that would offend the Left too much. I don't know how long she can get away not making a clear statement on Europe, but that is one of the biggest potential problems for the Socialists. If she takes a pro-EU stance, that would certainly push more Socialists to Chevènement.

I don't think that FN will gain anymore votes this election though it is possible because they are hard to predict because people don't want to say they are a FN support. I am sure that it will hurt the FN to have Sarkozy running because of his rough crime stance.