NationStates Jolt Archive

Will China dominate the world by 2050?

I remember reading that around 1400 the Chinese set sail to discover the world they sailed the Indian Ocean, found Africa met new civilisations and brought home fantastic stories, but they also decided the world was full of barbarians and decided on a course of isolation. At the time China was the greatest civilization on the planet, with the greatest wealth and must numerous population. Isolation was a decision that led to decline.

Now only 15-20 years after opening up the economy to ;) investment China is fast becoming the biggest economy in the world and yet most of the investment is in a few coastal strips, the potential for growth is fantastic.

How long before the USA economy is overtaken and we come to say "When China sneezes everybody catches a cold"?

43.78621 seconds.

Yes, China will dominate the world (and probably a couple of other worlds as well) by 2050. Unless something very bad and very unpredictable happens.

How long before the USA economy is overtaken and we come to say “When China sneezes everybody catches a cold”?
When SARS/Chicken Flu/Bubonic Plague finally get s round to killing us all.

Trevor McDonald said it, it must be true.

No.
And why not, I hear you cry.
The answer: India.

India is more likely to become the next superpower.
And EU if Russia will join - I think that by 2030 this will happen.

China looks like an economy bubble to me - they're likely to deflate very soon.

added: Russia is growing somehow slower than China, but Russia has a huge head-start because they already got excellent scientifical research (which China lacks) and heavy industry. Plus, Russia's got oil, natural gas, and a lot of uranium.
China has still to buy its weapons from Russia: three years ago, Chinese military claimed (as a great success) that by 2010 they would be able to produce 1/3 of the components of the Su-27 fighter aircraft. Yea right. They see as an industrial success to produce 1/3 of the components of a Soviet aircraft that made its maiden flight more than 30 years before. By the same time, Russia will have replaced the Su-27s with Su-35s or something even better. And Italy, Germany, Spain and Britain will be flying EuroFighters since 5 years. Bye bye China.

No.
And why not, I hear you cry.
The answer: India.
Nah. Pakistan will get pissed off if India becomes too powerful, and they'll nuke 'em. Maybe.

Will China dominate the world by 2050?

I remember reading that around 1400 the Chinese set sail to discover the world they sailed the Indian Ocean, found Africa met new civilisations and brought home fantastic stories, but they also decided the world was full of barbarians and decided on a course of isolation. At the time China was the greatest civilization on the planet, with the greatest wealth and must numerous population. Isolation was a decision that led to decline.

Now only 15-20 years after opening up the economy to ;) investment China is fast becoming the biggest economy in the world and yet most of the investment is in a few coastal strips, the potential for growth is fantastic.

How long before the USA economy is overtaken and we come to say "When China sneezes everybody catches a cold"?


Yes it is becoming the biggest economy partially thanks to NAFTA. If thay do overtake the US economy it's because all the so called " American " companies are relocating to china. So Mr. Bush tell us again why you think outsourcing is good for America?

No.
And why not, I hear you cry.
The answer: India.

Even India's largest and most progressive cities are not even 100% paved, the few gems of economic superpowerdom are surrounded by miles of impoverished crud. India's economic prospects are a mirage, the infrastructure simply does not exist for that wealth to be shared.

Although it is tempting to believe that the democratic, secular India will rise to power, the fact is it is not as capable as bringing as many people into the middle classes as China.

Yes it is becoming the biggest economy partially thanks to NAFTA. If thay do overtake the US economy it's because all the so called " American " companies are relocating to china. So Mr. Bush tell us again why you think outsourcing is good for America?

Wah wah wah.

Depends on how they handle the coming political, demographic and economic troubles they're going to be facing within a decade.

Both nations have their fair share of gigantic internal problems.
They both have huge potential however
The issue here being then which country is able to deal with those problems the best.

I'll refrain from making any arguments here then for the sole reason I know too little about the subject to make a sense argument, but one major hinderance in the Indian society that many people seem to forget must be overcome before they can make that leap into the future: They must abolish their caste based society. It is a major hinderance to disallow a major part of their population to rise towards their middel class and as such a major obstacle for wealth and power.

Democracy indeed, but what good is it if society itself segrates?

Even India's largest and most progressive cities are not even 100% paved, the few gems of economic superpowerdom are surrounded by miles of impoverished crud. India's economic prospects are a mirage, the infrastructure simply does not exist for that wealth to be shared.

Although infrastructure is horrible and needs to be improved, the service sector led boom is not constrained that much by the lack of infrastructure. And even with this horrible infrastructure, the manufacturing sector is booming too. Check the numbers you will be surprised.

I know Indians who actually argue that the system of chaos forces them to innovate and be creative.

Infrastructure is improving by the way, by a "demand driven from the bottom" approach which IMHO is better than a "everything planned from the top" approach of China.

We have only seen the impressive shiny infrastructure of China. We have not seen the cost they have paid in terms of forceful relocation, restricted movement of workers, poor planning etc...there is even a video out there of a pitched battle between peasant folks and CCP thugs.


Although it is tempting to believe that the democratic, secular India will rise to power, the fact is it is not as capable as bringing as many people into the middle classes as China.

IIRC, India's GINI coefficient is better than China's.

Sure, the Chinese have done way better in the last coupla decades and are poised for greater things...but...as I like to say...the cage may be golden..but this bird likes its freedom, thank you very much.

The Chinese may have won the sprint, but the marathon is still on.

The criticisms that the wealth of India is concentrated in a mere handful of cities is equally applicabe to the PRC.

I think more likely India than China.
Mainly because of their respective political structures.

Both have appalling poverty levels, with millions (hundreds of millions!) living in abject poverty.

Difference between the two is that India is (on paper at least) a functioning democracy. That gives everyone, even the poorest the illusion (if nothing else) that their voice will be heard.

Chinese PRC is desperately trying to hold China together from the growing social unrest. As more money pours into China and the gap between haves and have nots widens, the unrest will grow even more. The amount of corruption is definitely growing too.

I'll refrain from making any arguments here then for the sole reason I know too little about the subject to make a sense argument, but one major hinderance in the Indian society that many people seem to forget must be overcome before they can make that leap into the future: They must abolish their caste based society. It is a major hinderance to disallow a major part of their population to rise towards their middel class and as such a major obstacle for wealth and power.

Democracy indeed, but what good is it if society itself segrates?

You are right about the "I know too little about the subject" part.:)

You are right about the "I know too little about the subject" part.:)

Cute, but how about coming up with arguments as to why I'm wrong instead of making ad hominem remarks?

Indian rural society still adheres to the laws of the caste and descriminates against the lowers castes, but naturally I'm quite open to the possibility that you will point me wrong, in fact I hope so.

But your remarks as quoted above doesn't really help the discussion now does it? ;)

Hope this article answers the infrastructure simply does not exist for that wealth to be shared.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1101/csmimg/p12b_popup.gif
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1101/p01s03-wosc.html
SRIPERUMBUDUR, INDIA – For a decade, India's economy has played the same hit song, stuck on repeat: The service sector - anchored by information technology - generates 50 percent of the nation's wealth. Meanwhile, manufacturing has been dismissed with a snort. India was too inefficient, too bureaucratic, too underdeveloped.

Now, that is changing. Boosted by the country's growing appetite for global goods, companies ranging from Honda to Hewlett-Packard are bringing new assembly lines to India. Manufacturing grew 11.3 percent in the first quarter of this fiscal year, spurring the country's highest first- quarter growth this decade: 8.9 percent.

The old problems persist, and India is nowhere near ready to displace China as the world's factory floor. But in a nation where 250 million people live on less than $1 a day, it offers a hope that high tech cannot: that India may begin to spread its newfound prosperity beyond a small, urban middle class.

Here outside Chennai, amid a thicket of thatched-roof huts, two factories - one for Nokia and the other for Korean automaker Hyundai - suggest what is possible, even in a country short on power, pitted by potholes, and still under the economic sway of Karl Marx.

"Can manufacturing work in India?" asks Jukka Lehtelä, director of Nokia's India operations, as the footsteps of arriving workers rattle ceiling light fixtures. "Anyone who could see behind these walls would not ask that question."

While the scene outside is timeless India, with workers filing by wearing saris so bright they could be plugged into a light socket, behind these walls is something new: the whirring and clicking of clockwork cellphone construction. By design, the factory floor is organized with the same Scandinavian orderliness that characterizes every Nokia plant - from its domestic factory in Finland to others in China, Texas, and beyond.

It is at least a start. While manufacturing is 55 percent of China's gross domestic product, it is only about 17 percent of India's - so it has often been overlooked. "In the 1990s, we lost sight of manufacturing as a sector," says Ramesh Mangaleswaran of the Mumbai (Bombay) office of McKinsey & Co., an international consulting firm.

For one, the brightness of the service sector eclipsed manufacturing. But there was also a lack of will to put in the work needed to make manufacturing viable in India.

Indian-made goods were expensive because of high taxation - the legacy of India's bygone socialist era.

Likewise, the country undercut its advantage of low-cost labor with strict labor policies - such as one law that requires companies with more than 100 employees to get permission from the state government before laying off workers.

Lastly, India's roads and power grids were ill-equipped to handle the strain of a manufacturing economy, with its sorties of multiton trucks and a thirst for uninterrupted electricity.

By and large, the problems remain. There is progress, as the government amends the tax code and establishes special industrial zones with better infrastructure, tax breaks, and - in some cases - more flexible labor laws. But Chinese goods are still 30 percent cheaper, and China still has seven times the highway miles, by some calculations. The great incentive nowadays is the Indian market itself. Domestic demand, not exports, is the real engine behind India's growth.

It is the world's fastest-growing cellphone market, with more than 1 million phones sold every week. By 2016, auto sales here could more than quadruple, to $145 billion, the government estimates. And Indians will buy 5.6 million computers this fiscal year - 1 million more than last fiscal year, according to Dell Computers.

So it is no mystery why Samsung and Motorola, Dell, and Hewlett-Packard are setting up Indian factories. For its part, Nokia considered building a plant here in 1995 and again in 2001. But the time wasn't right until 2004.

"It's like a hockey stick," says the Finn, Mr. Lehtelä, casting his mind back to things more familiar than cows and curry. "[The market] was very, very low for many years, and now it starts to go up."

Yet it is the growth of a domestic Indian auto market that most clearly presages India's manufacturing potential. In the past few weeks, automakers have piled into India like clowns into a Volkswagen.

• Honda announced its intention to triple its car sales to 150,000 by 2010, and it is in talks to build a second India plant near New Delhi.

• Toyota and Daihatsu will invest $86 million in a Bangalore plant to build 100,000 cars annually, ramping up to 200,000 by 2010.

• General Motors has decided to spend $300 million for a second plant that would raise its Indian capacity to 140,000 cars a year, from 60,000.

• German automakers Volkswagen and BMW are building their first factories in India.

In each case - except with luxury carmaker BMW - the primary goal is a better share of India's small-car market, which makes up 70 percent of auto sales here. Each major car company now needs to have an "India plan" - and in many ways, Hyundai is the foreign carmaker furthest down that road.

Trial and error for Hyundai

When it opened its plant in 1998, Hyundai was one of the first foreign brands to commit to India. Along the way to building up an 18.5 percent market share - good enough to be India's No. 2 brand - Hyundai has had to deal with all the frustrations that India has to offer.

The roads and congestion are so bad that it takes seven days for trucks to get Hyundai cars from here to New Delhi - roughly the same distance as Miami to Boston. It takes three to four hours just to get to the port 20 miles away. The state government promised to build a highway between Sriperumbudur and the port 10 years ago, but it is still not finished.

While Hyundai has a special power line from the government that promises uninterrupted electricity, at least one nearby supplier relies 100 percent on its own generators.

"We have experienced trial and error," says Heung Soo Lheem, managing director of Hyundai's India operations.

For example, he sees a large number of malnourished workers, meaning that they are weaker than workers in other plants. Moreover, there are unusually high absentee rates, and not just due to illness. "People will travel two or three days by train to go to a marriage," says Mr. Lheem.:D

Yet the bottom line is good: "The efficiency is not as good as in Korea, but it still has competitiveness," says Lheem, noting India's lower wages. "Our Indian operation is very much successful at this point."

Then he adds pointedly: "Even more so than our Chinese operations."

Indeed, the factory at Sriperumbudur is a plot of perfect Korean efficiency transplanted to the scrub of the south Indian plains - right down to the kimchi in the executive cafeteria. The factory's 9,000 employees, contractors, and apprentices split three eight-hour shifts - the only plant in Hyundai's worldwide network to be online 24 hours a day. In addition, the workers handle different car models on the same assembly line, shifting seamlessly between Santros, Sonatas, and the other four models Hyundai makes here.

Proving the cars meet high standards

At first, Hyundai had difficulty persuading outsiders that its India operations weren't substandard. European dealers wanted a discount on cars made in India. Surely, they reasoned, the cars would be shoddy, and it was only fair to trim the price for Europe's more discerning consumers.:rolleyes:

Now, that is changing.Then, at Hyundai's bidding, they came to take a look at the plant. No one asked for a discount again.

In fact, the plant has been so successful that Hyundai recently decided to make India its "export hub for small cars to the rest of the world," says Lheem. The facility is adding a second factory on the campus to double its capacity to 600,000 cars a year - half for India, and half for export.

Nearby, 16 Korean suppliers have sprung up to support Hyundai's operations - providing everything from brake pedals to wheel axles. Fifteen more will arrive when the second factory opens.

This is the "halo effect," with supporting industries establishing satellite factories near a main plant. "It's one of the biggest influences in the economy, and it's one reason countries like the motor-car industry so much," says Garel Rhys, an auto-industry expert at Cardiff Business School in Wales.

The 'Detroit of India'

It's also one reason that Chennai has come to call itself the "Detroit of India" with an affection for the Motor City that only a Tigers fan would know. In addition to hosting Hyundai, Ford, and BMW factories, Chennai has become the hub for an Indian auto-parts industry forecast to grow to $25 billion in 2015 from $10 billion in production this year.

Each of these halo companies offers more jobs, as is evident in the Hwashin factory nearby, where Indian workers weld fenders and hoods amid showers of sparks.

In contrast to the climate- controlled coolness of the Hyundai production floor, where a white- fingered glove could swab the floor without complaint, Hwashin is a riot of activity and a cacophony of crashing steel.It is the sound and sweat of industry, and these are 885 jobs that India needs. More than half of India's 1.2 billion people are age 25 or under, and in order to keep up with the demographic wave to come, India needs to add as many as 8 million jobs a year.

India's youth is both a blessing and a challenge. The young demographic contrasts with China's, where the one-child policy has yielded an older work force less attractive to foreign investors.

Yet the employment pressures it creates cannot be solved by IT alone. By leaping straight from a premodern agrarian economy to a white- collar service economy, India essentially skipped an economic step: It never built a blue-collar industrial base. Today, 70 percent of Indians are still employed in agriculture.

So when the economy grew by 6 percent from 1995 to 2005, the growth passed them over. During this time, poverty in India fell by only 0.8 percent, according to a study by the National Sample Survey Organization here.

Manufacturing is the only sector that can begin to fill the gap, adding about 4 million jobs a year, says Mr. Mangaleswaran of McKinsey. "You can't take [people] off a farm and put them in a call center," he says. "But you can put them in a factory."

Ready pools of workers

At Hyundai, they come from as many as 30 miles away, filing off buses that line up nose-to-tail like expectant schoolchildren. With its low-cost work force and abundant natural resources, India has much good to recommend it to manufacturers along with the problems of infrastructure and access.

But the government appears to be placing its greatest faith in the small-car industry, reducing the excise tax on small cars to 16 percent from 24 percent earlier this year.

"With 1 billion people to feed, you cannot depend on services," says Sugato Sen, director of the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers in New Delhi.

"You need manufacturing, which the government realizes," he says, "and the auto industry is one industry that can really make a contribution."

Nokia calling? Yes, we'll answer.

When Nokia decided it was time to build a factory in India, a curious thing happened: Many of its calls to explore investment went unanswered.

In many parts of the world, the prospect of securing the world's largest cellphone maker would turn local politicians into game-show hosts, offering ever-sweeter deals in hopes of winning the economic sweepstakes.

Here, it often didn't warrant a call back. From states that did respond, Nokia execs were confronted with India's intense desire to have every single document stamped - and in triplicate.

Then Nokia called the offices of the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. Government officials called back immediately and set up a meeting. Not long after, Nokia signed on the dotted line, and their plant opened faster than any in the company's history.

As a globalizing India attempts to unwind itself from a bureaucracy bestowed by the British and then allowed to run amok for decades, Tamil Nadu has become a model.

India still has more red tape than any country in South Asia, according to the International Finance Corp., and it is in the bottom quarter of that organization's list of easiest places to do business. But Tamil Nadu is top among a handful of states here that are taking the boldest steps to become business-friendly, executives and experts say.

"These states have learned the tricks now," says T.S.R. Subramanian, a former adviser at the International Trade Center in Geneva.

The tricks are not that revolutionary. The state has stayed ahead of the nation's electricity crunch, meaning it can supply relatively reliable power - unlike northern states. It has built highways and modernized its port. And it has attacked red tape with industrial-size scissors.

Typically, foreign firms need clearance from about 70 offices and authorities to even open their business. This can take three months or more. Like several other states, Tamil Nadu has instituted so-called single-window clearances - a one-stop shop for every business-licensing need.These are some of the reasons that Indian automaker Mahindra chose Tamil Nadu when it wanted to set up an industrial park with special tax breaks and better infrastructure. The venture has attracted BMW, as well as Indian high-tech giant Infosys, which built the world's largest software-development campus here.

"Projects of this nature require the support of the state governments to enhance credibility and also ensure smooth, hassle-free operations," writes Anita Arjundas, chief operating officer of Mahindra World City outside Chennai, in an e-mail.

Another measure of Tamil Nadu's success is a new stretch of highway that unspools from Chennai to the Nokia plant in Sriperumbudur. The marvel is not the road itself, but the scenery. The 30-minute drive takes travelers past no less than 10 engineering colleges - one of which looks curiously like the Taj Mahal. A landmark decision a decade ago to begin privatizing education has led to 660 industrial-training institutes, 250 engineering colleges, and 234 polytechnic schools.

"The caliber of the talent pool" was a primary reason that Dell decided to build its first India factory here, says Rajan Anandan, vice president of Dell India.

Yet it was Tamil Nadu's responsiveness that clinched the deal. When Dell voiced concerns that its land parcel was too small for partner firms - which supply keyboards, monitors, and more - officials "allocated a chunk of land," says Mr. Anandan.

The government hasn't always been so take-charge. "We're focused on going after investors now," says K. Rajaraman, a state secretary for industry, "not just waiting for them to come to us." Which means when Nokia calls, Tamil Nadu listens. To be sure, says Jukka Lehtelä, Nokia's Indian operations manager, he could have set up shop elsewhere. "But how well?" he asks. "That is the question: how much you want to hit your head against the wall."

I fear it doesn't anwser my post at all. The reason why I said I wasn't going to make any remark about the potential outcome of the economic race between China and India is because I knew little of the factors concerning it.

Therefor I made no remark at all concerning who would come out on the top over 50 years.

Instead I made a comment about a hinderance for the Indian economy which is the rigeous adherence to the caste system at Idian rural locations.

Hope this article answers


It does.

I think that a country whose exports are mainly services and research (India) is more advanced than one whose exports are low-cost customer goods (China). And if the country with a lot of research decides to go for heavy industrialisation, it will be at advantage because of it will be on the higher ground of tech.

Although infrastructure is horrible and needs to be improved, the service sector led boom is not constrained that much by the lack of infrastructure. And even with this horrible infrastructure, the manufacturing sector is booming too. Check the numbers you will be surprised.

I know Indians who actually argue that the system of chaos forces them to innovate and be creative.

Infrastructure is improving by the way, by a "demand driven from the bottom" approach which IMHO is better than a "everything planned from the top" approach of China.

We have only seen the impressive shiny infrastructure of China. We have not seen the cost they have paid in terms of forceful relocation, restricted movement of workers, poor planning etc...there is even a video out there of a pitched battle between peasant folks and CCP thugs.



IIRC, India's GINI coefficient is better than China's.

Sure, the Chinese have done way better in the last coupla decades and are poised for greater things...but...as I like to say...the cage may be golden..but this bird likes its freedom, thank you very much.

The Chinese may have won the sprint, but the marathon is still on.

(As always, I recognise you as the authority on all things Indian, so correct me if I am wrong)

I would probably agree that the organised chaos does help with innovation, just looking around my room on campus I can tell that the chaos that surrounds me helps me think and I can see how that would translate onto a national level. However having a wonderfully quirky urban landscape would probably be more harm than good if the average worker has to manoeuver through chaotic traffic and pervasive pot-holes.

You point out that India works on a bottom-up model, whereas China works on a top-down model, and that this is indicative of a progressive society. While that may technically be the case, I have to wonder if people in the lower echelons of both countries perceive it that way. I take it in India that there is not a lot of social mobility, that there are huge swathes of the lower classes who are in effect tied to their land and although they almost certainly would have experienced some economic betterment in their lifetimes, would not be aware of any first-hand rags-to-riches stories.

Whereas the Chinese would be constantly aware of the economic revolution that is affecting their country, as the majority of China's urbanites are internal migrants from the countryside. Mothers and fathers would be aware of the lifestyles of their offspring in Shanghai and elsewhere, and younger siblings (well... maybe not siblings, but other small children in the rural community) will be aware of what awaits them economically in the cities. I take it in contrast that Indian culture there is not such a huge occurance of internal economic migrants filling the cities, but rather that the countryside is more capable of withholding its young.

Although you mention the occurances of peasant/partisan conflicts, these are still relatively scarce in the entire nation of one billion plus. And in cases where conflicts do occur, they occur due to very local disputes about land uses and alleged corruption of local officials - never against the fundamentals of the Communist Party, which the people generally seem just as willing as ever to follow. As evidenced in the local conflicts, the peasants do not blame the Communist system, but rather petition the National (Communist) Government to solve the problem for them.

In conclusion, I think your analogy of a race is fitting. But as you say, if China has won the sprint, that means they have a great head-start that India must try hard to catch up with. I personally think the most likely occurance by 2050 would be China and India having evolved a new 'special relationship', bridged by economic co-operation and common world goals.

Indian rural society still adheres to the laws of the caste and descriminates against the lowers castes, but naturally I'm quite open to the possibility that you will point me wrong, in fact I hope so.



Your previous post.

It is a major hinderance to disallow a major part of their population to rise towards their middel class and as such a major obstacle for wealth and power.

Democracy indeed, but what good is it if society itself segrates?

I was born in a village in a so called "backward caste". I was not hindered in any way in my rise towards "middle class". And I am not an isolated rare case.

Caste based discrimination is not a factor in economy as you are saying. When I run a factory, I don't care which caste my employers belong to. I only look for merit. It is another matter who I chose to mix with in social occasions and that is where caste comes into play. It is like an extended family. I don't see why it is a "major hinderance to disallow a major part of their population to rise towards their middel class". The very idea is laughable for me.

The very same day that EU, India and Russia will create a free-trade area, they will rule the world. Not that's likely to happen very soon, mainly because of short-sightedness of the current EU Commission leadership - they still think that EU economy should be linked to US economy, and not become a major player on its own. Atlantism will be the downfall of EU unless european policies change soon.

I was born in a village in a so called "backward caste". I was not hindered in any way in my rise towards "middle class". And I am not an isolated rare case.

Caste based discrimination is not a factor in economy as you are saying. When I run a factory, I don't care which caste my employers belong to. I only look for merit. It is another matter who I chose to mix with in social occasions and that is where caste comes into play. It is like an extended family. I don't see why it is a "major hinderance to disallow a major part of their population to rise towards their middel class". The very idea is laughable for me.

I had to judge my argument on sources who claim otherwise, but assuming you are right (and I have no reason to doubt you) it could be outdated. I'll strife to research it more and hope ill come to the same conclusions as you.

I personally think the most likely occurance by 2050 would be China and India having evolved a new 'special relationship', bridged by economic co-operation and common world goals.

Hoping for world peace and a lack of a nuclear holocaust, I hope that vision is reality.

How long until American, the UK, Europe and Australia become mini China's? With the way corrupt businessmen are selling off all of their companies to these shitty little countries and decreasing wages as unions lose their power every year, not very long

Wah wah wah.


If you can't make an itelligent response ... don't make one at all.

How long until American, the UK, Europe and Australia become mini China's? With the way corrupt businessmen are selling off all of their companies to these shitty little countries and decreasing wages as unions lose their power every year, not very long


Don't count us out yet Ikfaldu, not all americans are corrupt businessmen.

Hoping for world peace and a lack of a nuclear holocaust, I hope that vision is reality.

Who said anything about hope? Such a reality would amount to a world where a non-Democratic nation with little respect for Human Rights (China) asserts hegemony over the rest of the world does not seem hopeful to me. I am just stating what I think is the most likely outcome. China and India ingratiating themselves to eachother seems inevitable as both markets widen and become increasingly inter-available. And nations with very significant economic relations do not go to war.

Indeed, as we have seen since the Cold War, it seems only impoverished nations go to war these days.

Don't count us out yet Ikfaldu, not all americans are corrupt businessmen.

Maybe not, but most Australian businessmen are. I'm seriously considering leaving this island before the shit hits the economic fan

Indeed, as we have seen since the Cold War, it seems only impoverished nations go to war these days.

I didn't know the US was impoverished.

However having a wonderfully quirky urban landscape would probably be more harm than good if the average worker has to manoeuver through chaotic traffic and pervasive pot-holes.

More than the workers, the road conditions limit the viability of having tight supply chain lead times necessary for JIT and lean strategies. Many industries have taken to vertical integration to overcome this limitation. ESSAR steel company built and runs its own port for its imports and exports.

Plus, when we get more and more industries, I am hoping they will either build or pressurize the govt to build infrastructure. This is already happening in states like Tamil Nadu which has a responsive govt. Not so in Bangalore which is literally bursting at its seams due to lack of proportional growth of infrastructure to keep pace with the city's growth. The govt there was non-responsive and companies began to move out to cities like Hyderabad, Chennai or to tier two cities like Pune, Indore etc where there is room for growth. Hopefully, the Karnataka voters will vote out the state govt and bring in new govt which is responsive.

I take it in India that there is not a lot of social mobility, that there are huge swathes of the lower classes who are in effect tied to their land and although they almost certainly would have experienced some economic betterment in their lifetimes, would not be aware of any first-hand rags-to-riches stories.

Social mobility has been low but it is increasing. Increasing number of Indians move out of their birthplace for work (many move out of their country too, like yours truly..:p ).

Whereas the Chinese would be constantly aware of the economic revolution that is affecting their country, as the majority of China's urbanites are internal migrants from the countryside. Mothers and fathers would be aware of the lifestyles of their offspring in Shanghai and elsewhere, and younger siblings (well... maybe not siblings, but other small children in the rural community) will be aware of what awaits them economically in the cities.

Yeah, but the Chinese still have the hukou system (IIRC, correct me if I am wrong) which restricts migrants. There is no restriction like that in India (other than Kashmir and certain sensitive areas in the North East) and you can see a big migration wave to the booming urban centres. I have seen people as far from Assam, Kashmir, Punjab etc working in Chennai call centres . Both white collar and blue collar workers. The construction boom has brought in migrant workers from as far away as Bihar to Salem in interior Tamil Nadu (my parents live there)

I take it in contrast that Indian culture there is not such a huge occurance of internal economic migrants filling the cities, but rather that the countryside is more capable of withholding its young.

Historically you are correct. But nowadays they just flock to the cities where there are jobs in abundance.


In conclusion, I think your analogy of a race is fitting. But as you say, if China has won the sprint, that means they have a great head-start that India must try hard to catch up with.

Yeah, but in the context of a marathon, the headstart from a sprint is hardly imposing. Taking our analogy further, there is a possibility of a burnout from a non demand driven rush. ;)

I personally think the most likely occurance by 2050 would be China and India having evolved a new 'special relationship', bridged by economic co-operation and common world goals.

Yeah, I hope so, because both countries have much to gain by accomodation than being hostile. Hu is right now in India. Ties are improving and bilateral trade is booming. Two-way trade Between India and China will touch $20 billion this year — up from $5 billion in 2002 and a paltry $265 million in 1991.

But there are still thorny issues like India's support for the Tibetan govt in exile and Chinese occupation of Indian territory in Aksai Chin following Chinese invasion in 1962, and China's claim of Indian territory of Arunachal Pradesh and most important of all, China's past proliferation of missiles and nukes to Pakistan...

At this rate Russia will surpass in t he raw goods EU in Finance India in labor and China for the labor in the toy market

At this rate Russia will surpass in t he raw goods EU in Finance India in labor and China for the labor in the toy market

But they don't pay their workers two cents an hour like the Chinese, which is what gives them the economic edge; slavery.

If you can't make an itelligent response ... don't make one at all.

I apologise. But trade is a game, if you start to lose you don't then try to change the rules. America benefitted for over a hundred years on a (roughly) free trade policy.

The fact is that protectionism is unfair, its unfair on the people in the third world, and it is ultimately unfair on the protectionist economies. The United States has been out-done in terms of manufacturing by China and other nations, yet there are many more things America can do. You have lost the game, stop whining.

Yes it is becoming the biggest economy partially thanks to NAFTA. If thay do overtake the US economy it's because all the so called " American " companies are relocating to china. So Mr. Bush tell us again why you think outsourcing is good for America?

What does relocating to China have to do with NAFTA? Besides, it's not like the US would necessarily be hurting if China takes first place, it can be a win-win situation. China overtook the UK a few months ago and they're still doing fine.

I didn't know the US was impoverished.

The USA doesn't engage in war, it beats the shit out of enemies that have no realistic way of defending themselves. Engaging war, properly, involves diverting your resources into the fundamental protection of your nation.

What does relocating to China have to do with NAFTA? Besides, it's not like the US would necessarily be hurting if China takes first place, it can be a win-win situation. China overtook the UK a few months ago and they're still doing fine.

Please explain how exactly it is win win? I'M A FUCKING LOW SKILLED FORKLIFT DRIVER, HOW IS IT WIN WIN FOR ME IF THE CHINESE MOVE IN, BUY MY COMPANY, DEMAND THAT ALL EMPLOYEES LEAVE THE UNION THEN PAY US A DOLLAR AN HOUR??? WHY DONT YOU TRY WORKING A REAL JOB BEFORE YOU GET ALL LAME AND POLITICAL AND THINK YOU KNOW WHAT YOUR ON ABOUT F@#$HEAD!

Please explain how exactly it is win win? I'M A FUCKING LOW SKILLED FORKLIFT DRIVER, HOW IS IT WIN WIN FOR ME IF THE CHINESE MOVE IN, BUY MY COMPANY, DEMAND THAT ALL EMPLOYEES LEAVE THE UNION THEN PAY US A DOLLAR AN HOUR??? WHY DONT YOU TRY WORKING A REAL JOB BEFORE YOU GET ALL LAME AND POLITICAL AND THINK YOU KNOW WHAT YOUR ON ABOUT F@#$HEAD!

First of all, that's not happening, which just shows how much you know. Second of all, if your level of ambition stops at being a unionized asshole that gets paid for doing nothing all day, then yes, it's a losing situation for you. But there are people who will upgrade their skills and are actually interested in making an effort to get ahead. For them it will be a winning situation, since there will be more jobs in sectors that the US is better suited for.

So, why don't you get a real brain instead of shit for your head, eh?

Well it seems that China just might surpass the economy and power of the United States of America when considering how fast they're growing. They have the biggest population in the world so their workforce is rather unlimited and global conglomerates are doing business with them. Its pretty freaky deaky! :p

First of all, that's not happening, which just shows how much you know. Second of all, if your level of ambition stops at being a unionized asshole that gets paid for doing nothing all day, then yes, it's a losing situation for you. But there are people who will upgrade their skills and are actually interested in making an effort to get ahead. For them it will be a winning situation, since there will be more jobs in sectors that the US is better suited for.

So, why don't you get a real brain instead of shit for your head, eh?

WHY DONT YOU TRY WORKING A REAL DAY LIKE ME SCUMBAG! NOT HAPPENING? WTF HAPPENED IN IRAN, SAUDI ARABIA, TURKEY AND ALL OF THESE OTHER COUNTRIES WHEN THE WEST MOVED IN? YOU WANT THAT HAPPENING TO YOUR COUNTRY WHEN CHINA DECIDES TO MOVE IN BE MY GUEST DOUCHABG. GETS PAID FOR DOING NOTHING ALL DAY!? I WORK MY FUCKING ASS OFF ALL DAY PACKAGING THE PRODUCTS THAT YOU PROBABLY BUY WITH YOUR DADDYS TRUST FUND MONEY JUST SO THAT I CAN EARN A DECENT LIVING, IF I DO OTHERWISE I GET FIRED! I HOPE YOU DIE OF SARS YOU FUCKING RETARTED 12 YEAR OLD LUNATIC! WHAT THE FUCK COUNTRY TO YOU WANT TO LIVE IN!!!

WHY DONT YOU TRY WORKING A REAL DAY LIKE ME SCUMBAG! NOT HAPPENING? WTF HAPPENED IN IRAN, SAUDI ARABIA, TURKEY AND ALL OF THESE OTHER COUNTRIES WHEN THE WEST MOVED IN? YOU WANT THAT HAPPENING TO YOUR COUNTRY WHEN CHINA DECIDES TO MOVE IN BE MY GUEST DOUCHABG. GETS PAID FOR DOING NOTHING ALL DAY!? I WORK MY FUCKING ASS OFF ALL DAY PACKAGING THE PRODUCTS THAT YOU PROBABLY BUY WITH YOUR DADDYS TRUST FUND MONEY JUST SO THAT I CAN EARN A DECENT LIVING, IF I DO OTHERWISE I GET FIRED! I HOPE YOU DIE OF SARS YOU FUCKING RETARTED 12 YEAR OLD LUNATIC! WHAT THE FUCK COUNTRY TO YOU WANT TO LIVE IN!!!

That's the difference between you and me. You work with you ass, while I work with my brain. Yes, for people like you it will always be a losing situation, no matter what happens, it's obvious you are not smart enough to do better. It sucks to be you.

WHY DONT YOU TRY WORKING A REAL DAY LIKE ME SCUMBAG! NOT HAPPENING? WTF HAPPENED IN IRAN, SAUDI ARABIA, TURKEY AND ALL OF THESE OTHER COUNTRIES WHEN THE WEST MOVED IN? YOU WANT THAT HAPPENING TO YOUR COUNTRY WHEN CHINA DECIDES TO MOVE IN BE MY GUEST DOUCHABG. GETS PAID FOR DOING NOTHING ALL DAY!? I WORK MY FUCKING ASS OFF ALL DAY PACKAGING THE PRODUCTS THAT YOU PROBABLY BUY WITH YOUR DADDYS TRUST FUND MONEY JUST SO THAT I CAN EARN A DECENT LIVING, IF I DO OTHERWISE I GET FIRED! I HOPE YOU DIE OF SARS YOU FUCKING RETARTED 12 YEAR OLD LUNATIC! WHAT THE FUCK COUNTRY TO YOU WANT TO LIVE IN!!!


Also, with what money am I supposed to advance my skills f$#@head! I WASNT BORN INTO A RICH FAMILY YOU DOUCHEBAG, PEOPLE LIKE ME ARE THE ONES WHO KEEP THIS COUNTRY RUNNING UNLIKE YOU WHO, IF YOU WORK AT ALL, PROBABLY SIT BEHIND A COMPUTER LAZING THE DAY AWAY WAITING FOR YOUR NEXT COFFEE BREAK! IF CHINA OR SOME OTHER RISING ECONOMIC FOREIGN POWER DOES COME IN, I HOPE THEY F$#@ OVER YOUR COMPANY AND YOU BECOME A SLAVE!

That's the difference between you and me. You work with you ass, while I work with my brain. Yes, for people like you it will always be a losing situation, no matter what happens, it's obvious you are not smart enough to do better. It sucks to be you.


Try working my job, theres WAY more to it than you give it credit for f$#@head! Maths is a VERY big thing when your hauling two tonnes around and arent sure if the container will be able to handle the weight or not. But no, your some ignorant little pansy who would fret over the thought of lifting something with his arms for a second of his life! I have a serious question for you now, how old are you and what do you do for a living?

WHY DONT YOU TRY WORKING A REAL DAY LIKE ME SCUMBAG! NOT HAPPENING? WTF HAPPENED IN IRAN, SAUDI ARABIA, TURKEY AND ALL OF THESE OTHER COUNTRIES WHEN THE WEST MOVED IN? YOU WANT THAT HAPPENING TO YOUR COUNTRY WHEN CHINA DECIDES TO MOVE IN BE MY GUEST DOUCHABG. GETS PAID FOR DOING NOTHING ALL DAY!? I WORK MY FUCKING ASS OFF ALL DAY PACKAGING THE PRODUCTS THAT YOU PROBABLY BUY WITH YOUR DADDYS TRUST FUND MONEY JUST SO THAT I CAN EARN A DECENT LIVING, IF I DO OTHERWISE I GET FIRED! I HOPE YOU DIE OF SARS YOU FUCKING RETARTED 12 YEAR OLD LUNATIC! WHAT THE FUCK COUNTRY TO YOU WANT TO LIVE IN!!!

Daddy's trust fund, eh? I wish I had one of those.

Daddy's trust fund, eh? I wish I had one of those.

Don't we all, but the truth of the matter is ignorant little faggots like this kid only have shit like that.

Also, I may have figured out why he is so angry with people who work with their arms and not their fingers; you were probably bullied in school by guys who had more muscle in their forearms than you did on your whole scrawny (or fat) body! Hahahahahahahahhahahaha!!!

Also, with what money am I supposed to advance my skills f$#@head! I WASNT BORN INTO A RICH FAMILY YOU DOUCHEBAG, PEOPLE LIKE ME ARE THE ONES WHO KEEP THIS COUNTRY RUNNING UNLIKE YOU WHO, IF YOU WORK AT ALL, PROBABLY SIT BEHIND A COMPUTER LAZING THE DAY AWAY WAITING FOR YOUR NEXT COFFEE BREAK! IF CHINA OR SOME OTHER RISING ECONOMIC FOREIGN POWER DOES COME IN, I HOPE THEY F$#@ OVER YOUR COMPANY AND YOU BECOME A SLAVE!

A 4 to 8 week Excel or Word course at a night school costs between for $80 and $120. If you can't come up with that kind of money or some ideas for a night job, then truly there's no helping you.

Please explain how exactly it is win win? I'M A FUCKING LOW SKILLED FORKLIFT DRIVER, HOW IS IT WIN WIN FOR ME IF THE CHINESE MOVE IN, BUY MY COMPANY, DEMAND THAT ALL EMPLOYEES LEAVE THE UNION THEN PAY US A DOLLAR AN HOUR??? WHY DONT YOU TRY WORKING A REAL JOB BEFORE YOU GET ALL LAME AND POLITICAL AND THINK YOU KNOW WHAT YOUR ON ABOUT F@#$HEAD!

Why don't you try being a labourer in an impoverished country where unemployment means starvation and death before you complain about being made redundant in a country with an extensive social safety net and ample oppurtunities for retraining.

There hasn't been a Western Working Class since the 1970s, so find a new schtick.

Don't we all, but the truth of the matter is ignorant little faggots like this kid only have shit like that.

From having floated around on this forum for quite some time, Izta doesn't have any sort of situation like that, nor is that an appropriate description of my fellow poster either.

Also, I may have figured out why he is so angry with people who work with their arms and not their fingers; you were probably bullied in school by guys who had more muscle in their forearms than you did on your whole scrawny (or fat) body! Hahahahahahahahhahahaha!!!

I know the only people who bullied me at any point in school were the ones with no brains in their heads.

Why don't you try being a labourer in an impoverished country where unemployment means starvation and death before you complain about being made redundant in a country with an extensive social safety net and ample oppurtunities for retraining.

There hasn't been a Western Working Class since the 1970s, so find a new schtick.


I would like you to come to my workplace and say that

From having floated around on this forum for quite some time, Izta doesn't have any sort of situation like that, nor is that an appropriate description of my fellow poster either.



I know the only people who bullied me at any point in school were the ones with no brains in their heads.


No brains, but they obviously had more power over you. Perhaps they were smart after all!

No brains, but they obviously had more power over you. Perhaps they were smart after all!

I should have said tried to bully. It didn't work too well.

Try working my job, theres WAY more to it than you give it credit for f$#@head! Maths is a VERY big thing when your hauling two tonnes around and arent sure if the container will be able to handle the weight or not. But no, your some ignorant little pansy who would fret over the thought of lifting something with his arms for a second of his life! I have a serious question for you now, how old are you and what do you do for a living?

And yet, you do most of it with your ass. I started hauling things myself, loading 3 tonnes of milk into a truck everyday at 4 AM and unloading it again at the markets so that your mom didn't have to put her teat in your mouth. And no fancy forklift.

Of course, I didn't want to do that all my life, so I scraped by, studied business management, some accounting, and later web site programming; some of it formal, some informal. Through people I met I was able to get better jobs, and here I am now, 15 years later and with a nice job.

I could have spent all my day complaining and going "boohoo, boohoo, I'm poor and no one gives me what I deserve and them furreigners want to take my job". But I didn't.

I would like you to come to my workplace and say that

Nice threat there. Perhaps a career in Crime could await you if you ever lose your job?

And a point has been made.

First of all, that's not happening, which just shows how much you know. Second of all, if your level of ambition stops at being a unionized asshole that gets paid for doing nothing all day, then yes, it's a losing situation for you. But there are people who will upgrade their skills and are actually interested in making an effort to get ahead. For them it will be a winning situation, since there will be more jobs in sectors that the US is better suited for.

So, why don't you get a real brain instead of shit for your head, eh?

i think some ppl need to get a reality check... there is only 1 constant and sure thing in life and that is change and if you dun, you are gg the way of the dinosaurs. honestly im also afraid of what lies ahead in this incrasingly globalised world, even fro graduates thier skills can be outdated in a few years if they do not constantly upgrade themselves. man and i dun even know if i can qualify for university. the world is scary and that is a reality, there is no such thing as an iron ricebowl.... ppl need to wake up to that.

The very same day that EU, India and Russia will create a free-trade area, they will rule the world. Not that's likely to happen very soon, mainly because of short-sightedness of the current EU Commission leadership - they still think that EU economy should be linked to US economy, and not become a major player on its own. Atlantism will be the downfall of EU unless european policies change soon.
Actually, a trans-atlantic free trade area would probably be better. Shared values and much more compatible economic standards and so on.

Russia couldn't give a shit about free trade, their big companies are state-owned. They use the "free trade" argument to get Gazprom access to European markets (ie buying gas providers in Europe), but they don't allow foreign firms to do the same in their country (and their courts don't decide against Russian firms in disputes).
For Putin it's simply a way of gaining power over the EU. In a few decades, he'll be able to turn off the gas in London like he did in Kiev.

Not so sure about India. I agree that there's lots of potential there, but I don't see China collapsing either. People have been predicting it for 20 years now, to no avail. Looks to me like they've got the game beaten...except when the rules change, which they will over the next few decades with climate change kicking off.

Poland will be the superpower. that is, after we invade Lithuania and the czech and slovak republics. and ovethrow kaczynski.

Poland will be the superpower. that is, after we invade Lithuania and the czech and slovak republics. and ovethrow kaczynski.
Nah, the evil EU will put an end to that.

Nah, the evil EU will put an end to that.

Led by the antichrist named...uh...*checks IMDB to see if they have the left behind series*...Nicolae Carpathia.


Wow. That's amazing.

Don't we all, but the truth of the matter is ignorant little faggots like this kid only have shit like that.

Also, I may have figured out why he is so angry with people who work with their arms and not their fingers; you were probably bullied in school by guys who had more muscle in their forearms than you did on your whole scrawny (or fat) body! Hahahahahahahahhahahaha!!!
Stay off the drink while you post, OK?

On topic - China will indeed become the next superpower, its culture promotes working for the greater good - something that's going to help it massively - plus, crap though its coal might be, it does, at least, have a lot of it, and that's going to be pretty handy when the oil runs out.

Stay off the drink while you post, OK?

On topic - China will indeed become the next superpower, its culture promotes working for the greater good - something that's going to help it massively - plus, crap though its coal might be, it does, at least, have a lot of it, and that's going to be pretty handy when the oil runs out.

I dunno. Right now I look at the PRC and I see a country that resembles the US during the late-mid 1920s, with rapid growth, and sudden expansion of wealth to a sizable quantity of people.

And, the PRC isn't the only country with a lot of coal. The US has loads as well, and we know how to burn it efficiently and cleanly in the US.

I dunno. Right now I look at the PRC and I see a country that resembles the US during the late-mid 1920s, with rapid growth, and sudden expansion of wealth to a sizable quantity of people.
I suppose so, but it's much more planned and because of this, China's growth will last longer in its 'boom' stage than the US, methinks.
And, the PRC isn't the only country with a lot of coal. The US has loads as well, and we know how to burn it efficiently and cleanly in the US.
We shall see...

Chinese becomes the new economic power, ok, my future kids will be listening to Chinese karaoke. I still need to make up my mind whether that's an improvement or a step backwards from American r&b. Either way, Dutch local singers suck imo so I will probbaly be welcoming the Chinese ones anyway.

I'm more concerned with their lack of democracy. That's really all that worries me. If they were at least a little democratic I'd take their fancy cooked dishes with chopsticks over fat American burgers (I'm vegetarian, so I am already doing this) and stupid American variants of true Italian pizzas.

Just move into a profession which even a 100 Indians or a 1000 Chinese cant do better. And teach your children Chinese instead of the bilingual courses I was put up with. ADAPT

Poland will be the superpower. that is, after we invade Lithuania and the czech and slovak republics. and ovethrow kaczynski.

Viva la rzeczpospolita...

Chinese becomes the new economic power, ok, my future kids will be listening to Chinese karaoke. I still need to make up my mind whether that's an improvement or a step backwards from American r&b. Either way, Dutch local singers suck imo so I will probbaly be welcoming the Chinese ones anyway.

I'm more concerned with their lack of democracy. That's really all that worries me. If they were at least a little democratic I'd take their fancy cooked dishes with chopsticks over fat American burgers (I'm vegetarian, so I am already doing this) and stupid American variants of true Italian pizzas.

Just move into a profession which even a 100 Indians or a 1000 Chinese cant do better. And teach your children Chinese instead of the bilingual courses I was put up with. ADAPT

I agree with most of what you say... except about pizza. The Italians make terrible pizza, its dry, its bland, its flavourless, generally lacking in most regards. Traditional Italian pizza had the potential to become a great foodstuff, but it took the cultural fusion of America to truly make it great. The Italians, good as they may be, would have never thought have putting pineapple on a pizza.

Will China dominate the world by 2050?

I remember reading that around 1400 the Chinese set sail to discover the world they sailed the Indian Ocean, found Africa met new civilisations and brought home fantastic stories, but they also decided the world was full of barbarians and decided on a course of isolation. At the time China was the greatest civilization on the planet, with the greatest wealth and must numerous population. Isolation was a decision that led to decline.

Now only 15-20 years after opening up the economy to ;) investment China is fast becoming the biggest economy in the world and yet most of the investment is in a few coastal strips, the potential for growth is fantastic.

How long before the USA economy is overtaken and we come to say "When China sneezes everybody catches a cold"?

Two aardvarks.

Nah, the evil EU will put an end to that.

not if we hijack and turn it into the polish empire.

I dunno. Right now I look at the PRC and I see a country that resembles the US during the late-mid 1920s, with rapid growth, and sudden expansion of wealth to a sizable quantity of people.

And, the PRC isn't the only country with a lot of coal. The US has loads as well, and we know how to burn it efficiently and cleanly in the US.

Interesting comparison...though I do not think it fits China.

First - The economy of the U.S. during the 20's was quite laissez faire( not quite, but you know what I mean), there were not a lot of regulations and the government did not have a lot of control over the economy like it does now.

China today is certainly capitalist, but the government still has a lot of power over the economy. It has a lot of levers it can pull if something begins to veer of course.

I believe China, as well as Vietnam mirror the Asian tiger economies of the 60's 70's, 80's and 90's. The difference is China is 10 times bigger then the largest and first tiger(Japan) so it can sustain massive economic growth for many decades to come.

China and India both have bright motivated people and I believe they can solve any problem that they face. Both countries are moving so fast that what was true 5 years ago no longer is the case.

China could whoop anyones ass pound for pound into the ground at the moment. Any battlefield you could think of in Asia between the US and China and the Chinese come out on top. They will replace the US unless they do something real stupid like invade Russia. Honestly I have no idea why potential world dominators always started shit with Russia, Russia is unconquerable, and who really want's that fucking weather anyways?

Will China dominate the world by 2050?

More like: Can China even survive the next couple of decades? Don't forget about the pollution in China (http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/article/280620061.html) :eek:

If China ever does decide that they want to conquer the world, they will need a new starting point. ;)

The USA doesn't engage in war, it beats the shit out of enemies that have no realistic way of defending themselves. Engaging war, properly, involves diverting your resources into the fundamental protection of your nation.

Huh? I thought war was generally waged for two reasons.

1: Beat up the guy who's trying to take your stuff or....

2: Beat up a guy to take his stuff.

Huh? I thought war was generally waged for two reasons.

1: Beat up the guy who's trying to take your stuff or....

2: Beat up a guy to take his stuff.

Okay, yes, there is such a thing as offencive war. But traditionally those wars also demanded full support from the people and industrial compleces of those nations. Modern America is a unique case because it is possible to live in America without knowing there is a war (if you stayed away from the media).

More like: Can China even survive the next couple of decades? Don't forget about the pollution in China (http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/article/280620061.html) :eek:

If China ever does decide that they want to conquer the world, they will need a new starting point. ;)

China for the past few decades has ignored its pollution problems, until now. It is now feeling the economic cost of its pollution. Solutions are being to take shape. Solar power is going to be BIG in China and will probably help make PV cells very cheap for everyone. Nuclear energy is also going to be a major source of power as well.

"In a move to cut domestic reliance on coal and oil, the Chinese parliament passed a historic law in February pledging to use renewable energy resources for 10 percent of China’s energy consumption by 2020. The new law includes details on the purchase and use of solar photovoltaics (PV), solar water heating, and renewable energy fuels. In particular, the government will promote the use of solar PV in buildings as a way to push China’s solar energy industry, said an official at the International New Energy and Renewable Energy Forum on September 19.

"Several upcoming events, such as the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, Shanghai Expo 2010, and the 2007 World Conference on Solar Energy, will further stimulate China’s solar energy industry. According to China Daily, solar power and terrestrial heat will be used at various Olympic venues; for example, 2-3 megawatt solar generators will power the sports facilities. The Shanghai city government, meanwhile, has drafted a three-year plan to boost municipal use of solar energy by 2007, including setting up several power generators with a combined capacity of 5,000 kilowatts, undertaking 30 projects that combine urban construction with solar energy, and installing solar panels at the factories of 20-30 heavy industries. A proposal has also been approved to install thousands of rooftop solar panels on commercial and residential buildings and educational institutions, according to Shanghai Daily."
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/41

so changes are on the way!!!

I really sound like China's cheerleader here, but its important to clear up misconceptions.

"Several upcoming events, such as the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, Shanghai Expo 2010, and the 2007 World Conference on Solar Energy, will further stimulate China’s solar energy industry. According to China Daily, solar power and terrestrial heat will be used at various Olympic venues;

Oh yea! I forgot about the 2K8 Olympics! Boy, that'll be a sight to see, athletes hacking and coughing their way through the events. And I wouldn't be supprised at all to see a new Olympic event: The 100K-run-from-a-typhoon competition. :eek:

But lets face it, if they continue to burn all that coal then their solar cells are not going to be much help.

Oh yea! I forgot about the 2K8 Olympics! Boy, that'll be a sight to see, athletes hacking and coughing their way through the events. And I wouldn't be supprised at all to see a new Olympic event: The 100K-run-from-a-typhoon competition. :eek:

But lets face it, if they continue to burn all that coal then their solar cells are not going to be much help.

The problem will not be fixed, but they are atleast moving in the right direction.

Beijing wipes out polluting factories for the Olympics


"The Beijing Coking-Chemical Plant is the latest pollution-causing factory to move from Beijing's urban district in accordance with a municipal government order aimed at creating a cleaner environment for the 2008 Olympic games."

http://en.beijing2008.com/14/24/article212032414.shtml

Okay, yes, there is such a thing as offencive war. But traditionally those wars also demanded full support from the people and industrial compleces of those nations.

Not neccessarily the people I think. Most tyrants probably didn't care about the opinions of the peasant/peasant militia. As for industrial complexes, of course there's going to be support. Nothing consumes resources faster than a war. And who do you think is going to benefit from that?


Modern America is a unique case because it is possible to live in America without knowing there is a war (if you stayed away from the media).

So you may not know there's a war if you live under a rock. Doesn't change the basis of war does it?