NationStates Jolt Archive

I've been hearing that China and North Korea may go to war at any moment and that China is digging trenches and tightining up defenses on its borders. Is this true? If so can anybody give me any sources on this? Thank you.

They're waiting for the regime to collapse, so that when it does, they can hold back the gigantic tide of displaced refugees.

They're waiting for the regime to collapse, so that when it does, they can hold back the gigantic tide of displaced refugees.

Doesn't Kim have a son he can pass rule down to? Or are you thinking that his regime will fail while hes in power? if so, why?

Doesn't Kim have a son he can pass rule down to? Or are you thinking that his regime will fail while hes in power? if so, why?

Economic hardships and general weakness of the regime, combined with increasing pressure even from it's patron saint, stands a chance of the regime just collapsing from the inside.

I am willing to gamble that when Kim dies, even if he has an heir, a bunch of people will make a mad dash to the border.

If a significant foreign presence entered North Korea, I bet people would also dash to the border.

Do you guys think China will invade to make sure that the allies don't go nuclear? I mean if N. Korea goes out with the "We're going to nuke stuff and take over the world" crap their pulling and the allies went nuclear this could be bad for China.

let's ALL declare war on North Korea.

And then start world war 3, right?

I am willing to gamble that when Kim dies, even if he has an heir, a bunch of people will make a mad dash to the border.

If a significant foreign presence entered North Korea, I bet people would also dash to the border.

The world's first, albeit, not the only, communist monarchy.

For two countries that fought side by side against the US, it would seem highly improbable, sure China got embarrised by the DPRK's actions, but that's about as far as it would go.

And on the topic on regime falling in NK, I also think it's also highly improbable, the people are practically indoctrinated and the more they starve the more Kim's regime is justified, do you know they shout 'Death to America' every time their lights go out for hours on end.

A war between China and North Korea... hmm, I wonder who'll win... :rolleyes:

Doesn't Kim have a son he can pass rule down to? Or are you thinking that his regime will fail while hes in power? if so, why?

kim has a son who is about 24. i dont think he has any government experience. if the torch gets passed to him, he wont be able to keep it.

china is unlikely to go to war with NK. they will give kim an ultimatum and he will follow it. if the have to act, it would be to remove him from power and install someone more to their liking.

NK is in such bad shape that i doubt the army would even try to stand against china. all china has to do is promise them FOOD and they will cooperate.

A war between China and North Korea... hmm, I wonder who'll win... :rolleyes:

Such a tough question :P

A war between China and N. Korea would be the shortest war ever.

Preparing for war? Such nonsense!

There would be no reason for the PRC to go to war with the DPRK. Well, not yet, at least.

Chicom would go to war for NK. They already did it once.

China will not openly go to war with North Korea. There's no reason for China to get its hands dirty on a bloody and potentially embarrassing conflict with their erstwhile ally. China will simply discontinue propping up the current North Korean regime, find a more malleable and well-behaved puppet, and quietly install the new puppet into power. I do think, however, that if North Korea conducts another nuclear test then it will be a foregone conclusion that China will remove Kim Jong-Il from power, as China cannot afford the possibility of East Asia going nuclear.

I seriously wonder if Japan, South Korea, or Taiwan have the nerve to go nuclear.

I seriously wonder if Japan, South Korea, or Taiwan have the nerve to go nuclear.

I think Japan already state that they won't go Nuclear.

All right, let me sum this up.

China has of course many interests globally and in this region in particular.

1. They do not want Western troops at their borders for strategic reasons. Understandable. That's why they have been propping up NK (along with other reasons) - a unified South Korea across their border wouldn't be in their interest for the time being.

2. They do not want Japan to rearm or SK to do so even more. They're quite happy "managing" Asia such that they remain the only actor powerful and independent enough to do as it wishes.

3. They don't like the idea of North Korea having nukes. Not only does it pose a security risk to themselves, but it encourages point 2 to be compromised, and directs more US attention at the region...and the Chinese involvement in this whole affair. Unfortunately the deal with Pakistan (orchestrated to create a counterweight to India to keep them on a short leash) for nukes backfired when Dr. Khan started handing them out like candy on a parade - including to North Korea. Trying to keep everything bottled up they probably made a deal with Kim: Yeah, you can keep getting our aid and other support, and in return you keep the 6-party talks running (which are something of a prestige object for the Chinese) and don't attract any more attention.

4. While the North Korean government essentially doublecrossed the Chinese first with the missile tests and now with the nukes, China does not want the North to collapse, simply because it will create an enormous amount of instability and millions of refugees trying to get into China. So they'll oppose any sanctions they think are strong enough to bring down the regime.

5. China also wants the financial centres and markets of East Asia to remain intact, so they really don't want a war. Plus, the PLA is in no shape to start any massive wars right now. It's still a behemoth and modernisation is a long and arduous process. This is not the time to throw it against a multi-million strong North Korean army.

So right now they're trying to redraft the deals they had before, condition being that the North keep quiet for a while. If they test a second nuke, that may well be the end to Beijing's patience. In which case you won't see a war, but a coup (little publicised, but there have been a few attempts the past few years, but they were quickly quashed), bringing to power a pro-China general who will begin reforms like the ones Deng Xiaoping introduced in China a few decades ago.

They have no need to go to war. Simply cut the food and fuel supplies and Kim will do anything the Chinese want - or, if he doesn't, the Chinese will arrange for someone more pliable to replace him. The Chinese can turn North Korea into a puppet state any damn time they please. And frankly, I'd be more comfortable with a Chinese puppet goverment in Pyongyang than Kim Jong-Il.

On the other hand, they might use their entire army to invade North Korea, just for the humor value. I am laughing out loud at the idea of the entire PLA invading North Korea.

I think Japan already state that they won't go Nuclear.

Japan dont even have a military, let alone a nuclear weapons program, it's against their constitution.

I think this whole fiasco shows just how irrelevant the US has become in diplomacy if it has to rely so greatly on China's support.

I'm surprised no one's mentioned the fact that having a regime like North Korea in the region really takes the heat off China. Think oppressive Asian government - China isn't on the tips of everyones tongues anymore, NK is.

Not to mention the fact that being able to take care of NK at any given time gives China a huge advantage as far as winning the hearts and minds of the people. Imagine: after the West is exhausted with Afghanistan and Iraq, witnessing the absolute trial of expelling old governments, China basically knocks on NK's back door and tells them they're coming in. Like many have said, any war between China and NK would be 'the shortest war ever'. You'd see little if any blood, and a nuclear, insane regime taken off the list of players. And suddenly the West stops doubting if China is being as good as it advertises, because it proved itself.

Japan dont even have a military, let alone a nuclear weapons program, it's against their constitution.
Japan has a very capable "self-defense force (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Self-Defense_Forces)", which is one of the most powerful militaries in the world, let alone the region.
It's just severely limited in its function.

I think this whole fiasco shows just how irrelevant the US has become in diplomacy if it has to rely so greatly on China's support.
That's what happens when you let go all the actual diplomats from the state department and subsitute realpolitik with ideology and neocon fantasies of liberating the world from reality.

War? Please. The DPRK, while not a real ally of the PRC (China would gladly throw Kim under the bus if it helps them), does have it's uses. As NL said, the DPRK does provide a useful buffer between them and the "Western" powers. But, I would not rule out Chinese military action against Kim.

Kim is a wildcard, even to the Chinese. And many perceive that the Chinese are actively supporting and sheltering Kim. While this is true to some degree, China can still come out looking horribly. And that is the last thing the Chinese want.

I would not be surprised if the Chinese attempted some kind of very limited surgical strike against a few DPRKian nuclear instillations. There are several reasons why China would benefit from a limited (and intentionally ineffective) strike.

1. They get some much needed good PR from the international community for setting a dangerous madman with n00kes back a decade. So the western press will say.

2. The PRC has been modernizing and building up their airforce for several years now. This would be a good test as to how effectively they can make an "American Style" surgical strike. They'll see if all that money they gave to the Russians is actually worth anything.

3. It would serve as a warning to Western powers. In striking the DPRK, China would say, in effect, "Kimmie may be getting all hot and bothered, but North Korea is still our playground. And you best not forget it."

4. Having the strikes be limited and intentionally ineffective puts the fear into the Western world, especially in South Korea and Japan, that the DPRKian weapons program could make a comeback. With both of their heads a little more level, they would be more likely to make concessions and negotiate with North Korea. Any concessions the western powers make to North Korea indirectly benefits China.

Now, this would not happen anytime soon. If there is another, more successful nuclear test by the DPRK, then we might see something of this nature.

Does this mean I win the internets?

Does this mean I win the internets?

No.

It means you killed the post.

If you turn yourself in to the ePolice they might go easy on you.

War? No.

But if things deteriorate much more, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a coup d' etat funded (and orchastrated) by China.

Pick up last week's TIME magazine. There is a great article about the NK-Chinese border.
Or read it here: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1549298,00.html


And there will be no US-NK direct talks as things stand. We did that in the 90s, and the North Koreans broke the treaty anyway.

If China drops all aid to NK - NK will collapse. No one else can provide aid as NK are already blockaded.

China will not openly go to war with North Korea. There's no reason for China to get its hands dirty on a bloody and potentially embarrassing conflict with their erstwhile ally. China will simply discontinue propping up the current North Korean regime, find a more malleable and well-behaved puppet, and quietly install the new puppet into power. I do think, however, that if North Korea conducts another nuclear test then it will be a foregone conclusion that China will remove Kim Jong-Il from power, as China cannot afford the possibility of East Asia going nuclear.

Indeed. China will not launch a military attack on the DPRK, but may orchestrate a quiet coup within the country. As I have already said in another thread (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=11822712&postcount=17).

Actually, I think there would be one situation where the PRC would invade North Korea - to beat the west to the punch. If the US and SK were seen to have run out of patience with NK, Beijing might decide to keep their buffer state, but remove the problem, i.e. the Kim Jong Il government.

I agree they'd probably try a quiet coup first, but if that failed I could easily see Chinese troops being sent in to "stabilize the situation."

A few well placed bombs from China, and no more NK leadership. China could easily send over some bombers in a lightning strike.

A few well placed bombs from China, and no more NK leadership. China could easily send over some bombers in a lightning strike.

Not that easy. KJI is fairly canny - does his best not to let people know where he's going to be.

Plus, China doesn't have the same fast-strike capability most western nations do. Most of their air force is defensive. Not that they couldn't do a good solid hit on a target, mind you, but there's a good chance NK would see it coming.

Not that easy. KJI is fairly canny - does his best not to let people know where he's going to be.

Plus, China doesn't have the same fast-strike capability most western nations do. Most of their air force is defensive. Not that they couldn't do a good solid hit on a target, mind you, but there's a good chance NK would see it coming.

I bet there's a few Kim Bomb Ill clones out there too. China's entire air force would cripple NK's air force pretty quickly in numbers. I bet, China might have some bombers that NK don't think they have either akin the Sukoi 24 or F111.

On the other hand, they might use their entire army to invade North Korea, just for the humor value. I am laughing out loud at the idea of the entire PLA invading North Korea.

There isn't room for the entire PLA in North Korea. I also can't see much sense in a full scale military invasion. The nuclear test was an irritating surprise, but war is too big a step for a country not in physical danger from Kimmy.

Of course, I can certainly see economic sanctions. Just pulling away support and protection may have the USA come in to do the job for them.

I seriously wonder if Japan, South Korea, or Taiwan have the nerve to go nuclear.

japan and SK have no need to go nuclear. thats what they have US for. if something needs nuking the US will nuke it, their hands will be clean and there is no need for all that development money

taiwan CANT go nuclear. the moment they step in that direction, china takes them back.

This thread from another forum sums it up nicely:
http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/showthread.php?t=21403

I've been hearing that China and North Korea may go to war at any moment.and I've been hearing that the moon is made of cheese.

:D :D ;) :D

japan and SK have no need to go nuclear. thats what they have US for. if something needs nuking the US will nuke it, their hands will be clean and there is no need for all that development money

I think that policy made a lot of sense when it was just China and Russia to worry about, but N. Korea is a much less stable situation. I don't think they want to rely on a phone call if it comes down to a sticky situation...every moment counts.

taiwan CANT go nuclear. the moment they step in that direction, china takes them back.

If none of these countries will go nuclear, then why all the speculation regarding China's fear that they will?

A war between China and N. Korea would be the shortest war ever.

I dought anywar could be shorter than the six day war.(isreal against every arab country mostly inwhich isreal totally kicked ass) I would give it a week tops.

Guys, you know there have been numerous coup attempts in North Korea, right?

Once an entire army was about to rebel, but someone talked and the heads of that army were removed and then relieved of their lives.

All China has to do is support a coup like that, and no war will be necessary.

I don't think there will be a war between NK and China. If China did a massive troup movement towards the NK border, Kim would do any song and dance that China asked of him. Then China would back down.

Also, people need to remember: NKs most lethal enemy is not China or S. Korea or even the West....... It's Winter!!! Isn't it? I think one day, NK will trade their nukes for solar cells and electric heaters! :p

I think one day, NK will trade their nukes for solar cells and electric heaters! :pChina used to be exactly where NK is today. (nuclear and Dirt poor)

One day NK will be like China.. or they will be like an asian Germany.. if US and China allow Korea to be whole again.

as for a China-NK war.. its just a wet dream.. (like I said)

China used to be exactly where NK is today. (nuclear and Dirt poor)

One day NK will be like China..
Except that you ignore the reason for China's rise: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Modernizations

Compare with North Korea: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juche

And even if the son of Kim came to power, and then started a similar line to Deng Xiaoping did back in the day (which he won't), it would be too late. The world economy has moved on.

or they will be like an asian Germany.. if US and China allow Korea to be whole again.
Poor South Koreans...good luck paying for the North. Solidarity Tax galore!

kim has a son who is about 24.

Or, as Letterman referred to him the other night "his less intelligent son, George W. Il"

Except that you ignore the reason for China's rise: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Modernizationsso that is the magic formula!!!

I am shocked !!!
:D