NationStates Jolt Archive

There is a peak oil crisis which is going to come in the next few years, it could be next year but I would say there wouldn't be any longer than 5years. products are going to become too expensive to produce the worlds stock markets are going to crash in a big way causing worldwide hyperinflation poverty and famine and millions, probably billions of people are going to die from hunger and the effects of overpopulation why do you think the likes of BP are pushing us to become energy efficient the only thing they have ever cared about is profits they know that the end of the industrial world is nigh and they are trying to prolong their lifestyles as much as possible watch out next year if the price of oil goes up by a significant percentage and no doubt it will. We all need to be able to be ready to radically alter our lifestyles, growing our own food, making our own clothes and dodging the oil wars that are going to escalate. This is serious people don't just burry your heads in the sand like our governments are doing they know all about it but are trying to make the most of their luxury lifestyles while they still can

Source?

And once again class, repeat it back to me, what happens when there's an increasingly high level of scarcity, and an increasingly high level of demand? That's right, people find substitutes!

Can't remember but go to google and search for peak oil crisis, its nothing you shouldn'y already know about. Oil is running out and when demand excedes supply the price of oil will go up and up. everything in our everyday lives relies on oil without oil there is no effective transport without that costs go up, there is no more plastic probably the most used material on the planet, machines need lubrication to produce, electricty production is mostly derived from oil, home heating, even alternative fuel and energy relies on oil for the manufacturing processes, harvesting of crops relies on oil for the harvesters I could go on and on...

So where are these substitutes, ok I know there are some the likes of hydrogen fuel cells... which uses more oil in the production process than the benefits of it can produce. Any substitutes that are existing or will be invented are not up to the task of replacing oil.

Cars will become electric; nuclear, solar, wind power. Plastics replaced by carbon fibres...blah, blah, blah.

So where are these substitutes, ok I know there are some the likes of hydrogen fuel cells... which uses more oil in the production process than the benefits of it can produce. Any substitutes that are existing or will be invented are not up to the task of replacing oil.

And how can you say that with certainty? At the moment it seems to be perfectly logical to look to coal in the short term, nuclear in the medium term and something totally different in the long term, for our basic electricity needs. If it gets really bad, the market will adapt (hybrids and electric cars will see a resurgence, I'd imagine) in virtually all areas.

The only one that really looks tough is air transport, and a bit of market driven innovation will fix that.

Anyways, peak oil means we've hit the 50% mark, it's downhill from here, but it's a long way downhill. Probably 3/4 of a century. The developed world will get along just fine, and the developing world will do pretty good as well.

... electricty production is mostly derived from oil, ...

Depends on the nation you live in. In the US coal is the main source of electricity. In France and Sweden, nuclear is. Anyway, we have had this discussion many, many times on this board. Type peak oil into the search feature of this list. You will get tons of info on both sides of this debate from the "no it's impossible" crowd to the "the sky is falling" crowd, and everything in between.

Edited to add: Check out the ITER project to perfect fusion power. Most of the worlds economic powers are involved in it. If it pans out, we'll be fine. If it pans out. http://www.iter.org/

So where are these substitutes, ok I know there are some the likes of hydrogen fuel cells... which uses more oil in the production process than the benefits of it can produce. Any substitutes that are existing or will be invented are not up to the task of replacing oil.

Currently, there are many alternatives. Wind, solar, cellulosic ethanol, biodiesel, geothermal, nuclear, coal*, hybrid engines, zero-energy construction methods, hydroelectric, and tidal power to name a few. Most of these are economically competitive with oil at current prices, and more and more of them are becoming energy-competitive as technology improves.

A caveat is the fact that these alternatives take time to develop. So, we could be in for a rough period of probably 10 years or so post-Peak due to the sheer challenge of building out an infrastructure to replace the one that took over 100 years to develop.

It'll be a tough decade or two post peak, but far from the end of industrial civilization or the global economy.

A Nuclear Power station can only SAFELY produce 10MW an oil fired power station can produce 100MW wind and solar can produce a couple of hundred KW at most. Electric cars have have been tried and failed Carbon fibres can't do all the jobs plastic can do blah blah blah

and the developing world will do pretty good as well.

As well as the developing world can do.

At the end of the day delude yourselves as much as you like if you don't think this is anything to worry about I don't care its your life not mine

Can't remember but go to google and search for peak oil crisis, its nothing you shouldn'y already know about. Oil is running out and when demand excedes supply the price of oil will go up and up. everything in our everyday lives relies on oil without oil there is no effective transport without that costs go up, there is no more plastic probably the most used material on the planet, machines need lubrication to produce, electricty production is mostly derived from oil, home heating, even alternative fuel and energy relies on oil for the manufacturing processes, harvesting of crops relies on oil for the harvesters I could go on and on...

Time to put this in perspective, however. Yes, all of these things use oil but:

Over 70% of oil is used in transportation, of which over 85% is used in passenger cars and trucks. That means only Agriculture and industry consume 21% of oil, and all plastics+airplanes use a combined 12% of our oil. The amount used by all plastics, lubricants, transoceanic ships, trains, medicines, and airplanes is less than 10% of the oil consumed in the entire world.

The amount of oil used outside of passenger cars and trucks is miniscule. In the event of an oil crisis, it would take 20 years at a 3% depletion rate (which is a very high-end estimate for the world) to approach the share of oil consumed by agriculture and industry.

Simple rationing and conservation could save more than enough oil to meet our needs for things like agriculture, industry, construction, and equipment fuel.

Time to put this in perspective, however. Yes, all of these things use oil but:

Over 70% of oil is used in transportation, of which over 85% is used in passenger cars and trucks. That means only Agriculture and industry consume 21% of oil, and all plastics+airplanes use a combined 12% of our oil. The amount used by all plastics, lubricants, transoceanic ships, trains, medicines, and airplanes is less than 10% of the oil consumed in the entire world.

The amount of oil used outside of passenger cars and trucks is miniscule. In the event of an oil crisis, it would take 20 years at a 3% depletion rate (which is a very high-end estimate for the world) to approach the share of oil consumed by agriculture and industry.

Simple rationing and conservation could save more than enough oil to meet our needs for things like agriculture, industry, construction, and equipment fuel.

Shh! You'll spoil his fun.

A Nuclear Power station can only SAFELY produce 10MW an oil fired power station can produce 100MW wind and solar can produce a couple of hundred KW at most. Electric cars have have been tried and failed Carbon fibres can't do all the jobs plastic can do blah blah blah

Nuclear plants routinely produce 2,000+ MW per year of power without any danger....where did you get that number? Solar may only get a few MW or KW of electricity, but 1 KW is almost enough to fully power a single house for one year. That's a lot of power if you take in to account how many millions of houses there are in the US.

AFAIK, France uses nuclear for 85% of its power and they definitely consume more than 10MW/year with no major accidents. Oil power plants are almost nonexistent producing only 10% of world power, and most of that is either in the Middle East or in poorer countries. The US, for example, only gets 3% of its power from oil.

Plastics use 4% of world oil demand, and many of their roles are being taken over by bioplastics, carbon composites, and other technologies. That's no concern at all on current scales, and some of the uses could just be eliminated or replaced by recycling (like using paper bags instead of plastic).

A Nuclear Power station can only SAFELY produce 10MW an oil fired power station can produce 100MW wind and solar can produce a couple of hundred KW at most. Electric cars have have been tried and failed Carbon fibres can't do all the jobs plastic can do blah blah blah

And the new generation of "clean" coal power plants can produce up to 630-megawatts. Plastics can also be made from coal. And we have enough coal to last at least out lifetimes. Not exactly environmentally friendly, but when mixed with nuclear and renewables it can be do-able. At least until we perfect fusion.

Shh! You'll spoil his fun.

Nah, I don't want to make people who are really interested in and involved with Peak Oil to look bad (like myself).

I think this person just read LATOC and took it for pure fact...

A Nuclear Power station can only SAFELY produce 10MW an oil fired power station can produce 100MW wind and solar can produce a couple of hundred KW at most. Electric cars have have been tried and failed Carbon fibres can't do all the jobs plastic can do blah blah blah

O RLY?
Wind power is the conversion of wind energy into more useful forms, usually electricity using wind turbines. In 2005, worldwide capacity of wind-powered generators was 58,982 megawatts,

The kinetic energy of a given mass varies with the square of its velocity. Because the mass flow increases linearly with the wind speed, the wind energy available to a wind turbine increases as the cube of the wind speed. The power of the example breeze above through the example rotor would be about 2.5 megawatts.

On June 27, 1954, the world's first nuclear power plant to generate electricity for a power grid started operations at Obninsk, USSR [4]. The reactor was graphite moderated, water cooled and had a capacity of 5 megawatts (MW). The world's first commercial nuclear power station, Calder Hall in Sellafield, England was opened in 1956, a gas-cooled Magnox reactor with an initial capacity of 50 MW (later 200 MW)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_energy

At the end of the day delude yourselves as much as you like if you don't think this is anything to worry about I don't care its your life not mine

Well, it's people like me who are voting for expanding public transportation and working to improve energy efficiency both at home and on campus that are changing things. I'd put solar on our family's house if I could, and I do not use a car to go anywhere...I walk all the time, saving most likely a few gallons of gasoline or diesel a week. Peak oil has to be tackled at every level if you want it to work; however, panicking about it will not solve the problem but will just lead to more harm than good.

Trust me, I'm far from being in a state of delusion. Me and PsychoticDan (and Tactical Grace at times) are pretty much the biggest PO/Energy people on this board.

O RLY?

Well, don't forget the fact that the current generation of wind turbines produces 1.5 MW of electricity per year, and some can go as high as 5 MW on offshore platforms...this is a huge industry with a lot of growth potential. There's an incredible amount of wind energy to tap.

At current growth rates, it will take 8 years for US wind energy generation to comprise 20% of our electricity demand. Now, mind you, that's not possible because of the tax issue so it would most likely be 12 years if generation continues to grow at 38% per year.

if you haven't noticed, OPEc just decided to drop production by one Billion barrels a year. Because prices are DROPPING TOO MUCH!!! I don't smell a shortage when the world's leading producer is afraid of low prices.

OPEC's cutting 2.8 million bpd!? Wow, I thought it was only around 1.2 million...that's a huge cut.

if you haven't noticed, OPEc just decided to drop production by 1.2 million barrels a year. Because prices are DROPPING TOO MUCH!!! I don't smell a shortage when the world's leading producer is afraid of low prices.
And you can actually verify that at <http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2006/10/22/2003332880>

I mistyped it it was supposed to be 1.2 million. I rewrote it with my source. once again, didn't mean to misinform anyone

if you haven't noticed, OPEc just decided to drop production by 1.2 million barrels a year. Because prices are DROPPING TOO MUCH!!! I don't smell a shortage when the world's leading producer is afraid of low prices.

And you can actually verify that at <http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2006/10/22/2003332880>

That's what I though; 2.8 million bpd seemed just too big for the current state of the market. I mean, the last time they cut by 2 million bpd was in 1999, when oil was $10 per barrel...I don't think the market's quite that oversupplied, but if it were then we've got a lot farther to fall.

Still, either way the market's oversupplied. I think it will be interesting to see how things develop; I mean, oil prices climbed by $2 today because of US inventories, which suggests that the primary issue is not crude supply on the market, but rather demand and stockpiles. I think we will see prices hold to the $60 level through the end of the year.

if you haven't noticed, OPEc just decided to drop production by 1.2 million barrels a year. Because prices are DROPPING TOO MUCH!!! I don't smell a shortage when the world's leading producer is afraid of low prices.
And you can actually verify that at <http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2006/10/22/2003332880>

Seasonal fluctuations in price.

Seasonal fluctuations in price.

I don't know about that; usually, fluctuations don't cause OPEC to cut production. Another thing is that the price also broke its 3-year uptrend, which suggests that this move was far more than just fluctuation; usually, when technical indicators break like that, it signifies a major shift in the market.

It'll be a tough decade or two post peak, but far from the end of industrial civilization or the global economy.

did you read last month's SciAM on Energy?

I don't know about that; usually, fluctuations don't cause OPEC to cut production. Another thing is that the price also broke its 3-year uptrend, which suggests that this move was far more than just fluctuation; usually, when technical indicators break like that, it signifies a major shift in the market.

Any suggestions as to why?

Currently, there are many alternatives. Wind, solar, cellulosic ethanol, biodiesel, geothermal, nuclear, coal*, hybrid engines, zero-energy construction methods, hydroelectric, and tidal power to name a few. Most of these are economically competitive with oil at current prices, and more and more of them are becoming energy-competitive as technology improves.

A caveat is the fact that these alternatives take time to develop. So, we could be in for a rough period of probably 10 years or so post-Peak due to the sheer challenge of building out an infrastructure to replace the one that took over 100 years to develop.


It would, of course, help if we implemented emissions trading and/or a carbon tax so as to start internalizing some of the externalities that give oil the economic advantage.

Any suggestions as to why?

Increases in production from the gulf area has been instrumental, as well as several countries have been bringing more capacity on line of late, both pumping and refining.

Any suggestions as to why?

Market psychology. If the sentiment of the market shifts, particularly if it shifts really quickly, the market can overreact and cause prices to shift dramatically, far beyond even what the fundamentals justify. That's kind of what happened here; several bullish predictions never came to pass, and when that was combined with a rebalancing of Goldman Sachs' commodity index that resulted in a huge sale of gasoline futures on to the market, the stage was set for prices to plunge.

The most severe examples of this were the 1929, 1987, and 2000 crashes of the DJIA and Nasdaq or the 1982/1986 collapses of oil and gold prices.

It would, of course, help if we implemented emissions trading and/or a carbon tax so as to start internalizing some of the externalities that give oil the economic advantage.

Absolutely...not to mention a carbon tax drives efficiency/conservation as well as faster development of alternatives, which means we're tackling both sides of the problem.

I mean, oil gets the biggest subsidy in the world thanks to the US Navy's 5th fleet, whose sole purpose is to keep the Persian Gulf open and act as a deterrent to anyone who might want to mess with oil exports.

Absolutely...not to mention a carbon tax drives efficiency/conservation as well as faster development of alternatives, which means we're tackling both sides of the problem.


I enjoy how SciAm referred to our current approach as "waiting for the cavalry to come over the hill".

Market psychology. If the sentiment of the market shifts, particularly if it shifts really quickly, the market can overreact and cause prices to shift dramatically, far beyond even what the fundamentals justify. That's kind of what happened here; several bullish predictions never came to pass, and when that was combined with a rebalancing of Goldman Sachs' commodity index that resulted in a huge sale of gasoline futures on to the market, the stage was set for prices to plunge.


And here I was thinking that the market was perfectly rational and never over-reacts to anything! :)

<scare mongering>

There was some British comedian who did a whole bit on this. I don't remember his name, but I think it was called The History of Oil or something. He made these and other points, but far more coherently and with decent source material. It was a very interesting bit.

Well, it's people like me who are voting for expanding public transportation and working to improve energy efficiency both at home and on campus that are changing things. I'd put solar on our family's house if I could, and I do not use a car to go anywhere...I walk all the time, saving most likely a few gallons of gasoline or diesel a week. Peak oil has to be tackled at every level if you want it to work; however, panicking about it will not solve the problem but will just lead to more harm than good.

Trust me, I'm far from being in a state of delusion. Me and PsychoticDan (and Tactical Grace at times) are pretty much the biggest PO/Energy people on this board.

I'm too sick right now. :(

I'm too sick right now. :(

The usual suspects are all here. Critical mass has been achieved.

The usual suspects are all here. Critical mass has been achieved.

But I'm coughin' lungs up and boogers are dripping outta my nose to the floor. However, never to leave a thread like this untouched, I must point out that the difference between my pessimism and Vetalia's (recently fading) optimism is that Vet tends to think in terms of possibilities and I think in terms of likelyhood. Can we get out of this mess if the world were to go on a Manhatten Project like tear? Sure. Will we go on a manhatten like tear soon enough? Hmmm.... Someone here mentioned clean coal plants and how efficient they are. They were right. I must point out, however, that not a single one other than prototype models have been built to date and that the carbon sequestration technology is in its early stages and has not been tested commercially yet. It takes many years, a decade or more, for power plant projects to be sited, permitted and built and we have a TREMENDOUS project ahead of us in what may very well be the immediate future! Note todays suprise decline in crude, distilates and gasoline. Oil's back over $60 again. Hope you enjoyed the cheap gas while it lasted. The infrastructural changes that we need to make aren't even in teh blueprint stages yet and people seem to think they're going to wake up tomorrow with a synfuel station down teh street and a hydrogen car in every driveway. Not gonna happen like that. Especially when there are almost NO political leaders anywhere in the world who either acknowledge the problem or will admit it publically.

if you haven't noticed, OPEc just decided to drop production by 1.2 million barrels a year. Because prices are DROPPING TOO MUCH!!! I don't smell a shortage when the world's leading producer is afraid of low prices.
And you can actually verify that at <http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2006/10/22/2003332880>

Or.......



Maybe they're all in decline and for political reasons don't want the world to realize that. Maybe the cuts they're announcing aren't as voluntary as they'd like us to believe. Just a thought.

I don't know about that; usually, fluctuations don't cause OPEC to cut production. Another thing is that the price also broke its 3-year uptrend, which suggests that this move was far more than just fluctuation; usually, when technical indicators break like that, it signifies a major shift in the market.

Marketwatch oday just ran a story on how the technicla indicators still suggest an uptrend.

Any suggestions as to why?

The summer prices included hurricane fears, war with Iran fears and Isreal/Hezbollah war fears. Since teh hurricanes didn't happen, war with Iran didn't happen and teh Isreal/Hezzbollah war ended all that fear premium evaporated pretty quickly. What is left is the real fear of supply disruptions in a world that is trying desperately to keep up with demand.

you think the likes of BP are pushing us to become energy efficient the only thing they have ever cared about is profits

your sure about that I mean the primary function of a company is profit but surely there wouldn’t be charity things if that’s all they cared about

However, never to leave a thread like this untouched, I must point out that the difference between my pessimism and Vetalia's (recently fading) optimism is that Vet tends to think in terms of possibilities and I think in terms of likelyhood.

And I tend to agree with you.