NationStates Jolt Archive

whoah. China has certainly done a 180 on the whole North Korea issue. They went from being rather apathetic in the multilateral talks to searching North Korea shipments, building a fence along the border, mobilizing troops and publicly discussing a possible coup of the North Korean leader. At first China seemed to be more concerned with obstructing the U.S. on the issue and now they seem to be on the same page, even going a step further.

This obviously has to do with North Korea's recent Nuclear Tests and their accusation of the recent UN resolution being a "declaration of war". China realizes they are nuts and knows that if they get a hold of Nuclear Weapons, U.S. Allies (relatively hostile to China) such as South Korea, Japan and especially Taiwan will also go nuclear.

Some real progress could be made here. A much needed vote of confidence for American foreign policy and particularly UN Ambassador John Bolton who got the most recent resolution passed, with China onboard.

Then again this is China were talking about...they may just wish to replace Kim with another dictator more to their liking.



http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20587473-601,00.html

China may back coup against Kim
Michael Sheridan, Beijing
16oct06

THE Chinese are openly debating "regime change" in Pyongyang after last week's nuclear test by their confrontational neighbour.

Diplomats in Beijing said at the weekend that China and all the major US allies believed North Korea's claim that it had detonated a nuclear device. US director of national intelligence John Negroponte circulated a report that radiation had been detected at a site not far from the Chinese border.
The US may have employed highly classified satellite technology to detect tiny leaks of gas or elements associated with nuclear detonation, according to a diplomatic source in the Chinese capital. This would explain Washington's reluctance to explain the findings in public.

The Washington Times disclosed that US spy satellites photographed North Koreans playing volleyball just a few hundred metres from a test site tunnel after the underground explosion.

The Chinese Government has been ultra-cautious in its reaction. However, since Monday, Foreign Ministry officials have started to make a point of distinguishing between the North Korean people and their Government in conversations with diplomats.

Ahead of yesterday's Security Council vote, some in Beijing argued against heavy sanctions on North Korea for fear that these would destroy what remains of a pro-Chinese "reformist" faction inside the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

"In today's DPRK Government, there are two factions, sinophile and royalist," one Chinese analyst wrote online. "The objective of the sinophiles is reform, Chinese-style, and then to bring down Kim Jong-il's royal family. That's why Kim is against reform. He's not stupid."

More than one Chinese academic agreed that China yearned for an uprising similar to the one that swept away the Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in 1989 and replaced him with communist reformers and generals. The Chinese made an intense political study of the Romanian revolution and even questioned president Ion Iliescu, who took over, about how it was done and what roles were played by the KGB and by Russia.

Mr Kim, for his part, ordered North Korean leaders to watch videos of the swift and chaotic trial and execution of Ceausescu and his wife, Elena, the vice-prime minister, as a salutary exercise.

The balance of risk between reform and chaos dominated arguments within China's ruling elite. The Chinese have also permitted an astonishing range of vituperative internet comment about an ally with which Beijing maintains a treaty of friendship and co-operation. Academic Wu Jianguo published an article in a Singapore newspaper - available online in China - bluntly saying: "I suggest China should make an end of Kim's Government."

"The Chinese have given up on Kim Jong-il," commented one diplomat. "The question is, what are they going to do about it?"

Hinting at the options, Chinese online military commentators have exposed plots and purges inside North Korea that were previously unknown or unconfirmed. They have described three attempted coups that ended in bloodshed. In 1996, the Sixth Field Army was planning to revolt but the scheme was betrayed by a new commander. One or two plotters got away but Kim Jong-il's personal guards arrested senior officers and the Sixth Field Army's political commissars.

On March 12, 1998, Kim suddenly announced a martial law "exercise" in Pyongyang and there was gunfire in the streets of the city. The Chinese later learned that two ministries were involved in a coup attempt, and that more than 20 ministerial-level officials were killed after it was crushed.

In October 1999, a company of the Third Field Army rebelled in dissatisfaction over grain distribution during the nation's prolonged famine, which may have killed a million people.

There are rumours that Kim's eldest son, Jong-nam, is estranged from his father and living in the Chinese capital, where he enjoys a reputation as a capricious imbiber of whisky. A younger son, Jong-chol, has emerged as heir apparent.

Meanwhile, some of the North Korean elite are seeking their boltholes in China.

Xin Cheng, an estate agent in the high-rise district of Wang Jing, which is popular with resident South Korean businessmen, said many high-ranking North Koreans were buying property there.

The Sunday Times

Then again this is China were talking about...they may just wish to replace Kim with another dictator more to their liking.

As do the other countries involved in this dance.

The Chinese are definitely worried about the DPRK though. Reports say they have begun building walls and fences along the border with N. Korea. Sounds like Kim is being left to twist in the wind, alone.

I suspect that thing are gonna get really messy over there.

Pros to Chinese Overthrow- Gets rid of that nut Kim Jong Il and his cronies, and would open up North Korea to redevelopment to get them out of their utter depths of poverty.

Cons to Chinese Overthrow- More projection power for the Chinese. May end up as another Tibet.

Can't really say whether I like this or not.

Oops. Kim has really slipped up this time.

Whatever happens, if Kim does fall, the transition period to a new government is going to be extremely hard for the North Korean people.

i wonder what the propaganderised NKians will think of al the YAY CAPITALISM people who would come after a coup ???

Pros to Chinese Overthrow- Gets rid of that nut Kim Jong Il and his cronies, and would open up North Korea to redevelopment to get them out of their utter depths of poverty.

Cons to Chinese Overthrow- More projection power for the Chinese. May end up as another Tibet.

Can't really say whether I like this or not.

We could make it an international coup. Keep the Chinese from monopolizing the thing, allowing us to eventually hand over control to South Korea and reunite the Koreas.

i wonder what the propaganderised NKians will think of al the YAY CAPITALISM people who would come after a coup ???

When they see how well-fed and happy they are they'll probably kick themselves for not fleeing the North years ago.

Wooo, go China. Kick the snot out of NK.

The chinese have probably learned the lesson from the soviets in Afghanistan and american in Iraq, and will not start a quagmire war that can't be won.

The chinese have probably learned the lesson from the soviets in Afghanistan and american in Iraq, and will not start a quagmire war that can't be won.

Difference is China has the resources to utterly obliterate North Korea's entire army and to feed the entire populace. I don't think they'll have any real resistance once the food starts flowing.

China might well take the chance to test out their military in a short, high-intensity war into NK. It's pretty much what they've built it up for. I have my doubts that they'd hang around if it looked like bogging them down though.

Difference is China has the resources to utterly obliterate North Korea's entire army and to feed the entire populace. I don't think they'll have any real resistance once the food starts flowing.

Yeah, totally agree with you, China wouldn't face the same problems we have in Iraq or elsewhere. Most of the problems in Iraq are perpetuated by Religion, religous extremest, al-queda, and Sectionalism, Not by national resistance. These wouldnt be an issue in NK because there is no religion, and no sectarianism, and there is no way in hell al-queda would show up in NK to fight the chinease. Any North Korean resistance would be obliterated by the PLA. Esspecailly how much better life would get after the invasion.

Oh yeah, theres also the pure logistics fact, China is right next to NK and can easily send any supplies as fast as possible in an effeicent manner. Along with soliders. The US has to travel all the way around the world. Chinese soldiers would also be there until the war was won, Not for a "tour" of duty of a year or so. They promote totall victory of the Nation, not a simple task that takes a year and then your done. The regular soldier must work and fight hard until they win, not having the defeatism of a Tour based campaign.

We could make it an international coup. Keep the Chinese from monopolizing the thing, allowing us to eventually hand over control to South Korea and reunite the Koreas.

The problem with that is China never has or never will want a unified Democratic Korea right on its border. North Korea's only, and huge benifit to China is the fact that it is a buffer, and thats all they need them for, so China would want to do it alone most likley, and install a puppet regime.

We could make it an international coup. Keep the Chinese from monopolizing the thing, allowing us to eventually hand over control to South Korea and reunite the Koreas.

that would be an excellent outcome but i doubt it will happen that way.

north korea is facing a terrible humanitarian crisis. there will be massive starvation this winter if no one acts. better the chinese than the US.

the chinese are worried about a flood of refugees coming across the NK/china border. people they will have to feed and house. better to remove the problem--kim jongil--now rather than waiting for the crisis to hit.

i dont know what they might do about a new leader for NK but there must be someone they could install for the time being. if they dont occupy the country, it could end up in a united korea. if they DO occupy NK, it cant be any worse than it is now.

Since they're invading their neighboring country logistics would be a snap, and you wouldn't need extended duty tours, you could rotate troops very easily. All in all it'd be a good public morale booster and get rid of a dangerously unstable weirdo.

I'm glad to see that China finally stepped up to the plate. Maybe we can have a united Korea a few years down the road.

I strongly doubt China will stage a military invasion. For one thing, Kim has a little deterrent now. For another, it would alarm South Korea and Japan, who would fear NK retaliations against them. For a third, a Chinese occupation of the north of the Korean peninsula would mightily piss off China's friends in Seoul. Koreans have rather bad memories of being occupied.

It's far more likely that Chinese Intelligence will (if anything) work in the shadows to destabilise Kim's government from within, or somehow knock it down in one swift blow without sending in soldiers at all.

If Kim lights off anothe nuke, the PRC overthrowing the DPRK regime becomes far more likely. At the moment, they're probably trying to pull him back in a bit, but if he screws up again, well, Kim's gonna have a problem with his Patron Saint.

I strongly doubt China will stage a military invasion. For one thing, Kim has a little deterrent now. For another, it would alarm South Korea and Japan, who would fear NK retaliations against them. For a third, a Chinese occupation of the north of the Korean peninsula would mightily piss off China's friends in Seoul. Koreans have rather bad memories of being occupied.

It's far more likely that Chinese Intelligence will (if anything) work in the shadows to destabilise Kim's government from within, or somehow knock it down in one swift blow without sending in soldiers at all.

Whatever the case, let's hope as few innocent people suffer as possible.

All and all, would be a lovley and good sight to watch the People's Liberation Army actually liberate someone for a change. And watch them smash and totally overwhelm NK's puney army compared to theres. And then watch Kim either die, or be tourtered to death by the Commisars of the PRC.

Well Japan is making noises of having its own nukes and anti nukes...


Along with Taiwan....


So China is beginning to see the light..:D


being surrounded by enimies with nukes .....not a good thing...:D



Kim Ill bung is getting a bit of a smack down....

Just got to hope he notices it . Today he claimed we declared war on him .

The problem with that is China never has or never will want a unified Democratic Korea right on its border. North Korea's only, and huge benifit to China is the fact that it is a buffer, and thats all they need them for, so China would want to do it alone most likley, and install a puppet regime.
The problem is, the U.S. and the European Union could easily push the matter with the Chinese, and they know it. The world economy is interconnected like never before. China is just as dependent on us as we are on them for so much, and if we want an international coup that would lead to a fully unified, democratic Korea, I don't think they'll have much of a choice.

And Kim could probably get a job in Vegas as a celebrity greeter or something, so it's a win-win all around. :p

I see him on American Idol...remember that Chinese dude who couldnt sing and was so bad he became a hit ?


Thats Kim Ill Bungs next gig ...:D



Either that or a guest shot on pinky and the brain .

The problem is, the U.S. and the European Union could easily push the matter with the Chinese, and they know it. The world economy is interconnected like never before. China is just as dependent on us as we are on them for so much, and if we want an international coup that would lead to a fully unified, democratic Korea, I don't think they'll have much of a choice.

Thats true, but if it came down to an actuall conventional invasion of the Nation I think it would be worse for the US to invade with the Chinese, When they both whoop the shit out of the N. Korean army and then meet in the middle the Two most powerful and rival nations on earth in this heightened sence, and oppositional sence, would most likley lead to some very hight blood shed, and perhaps and accidental war between the two in NK after Kim's regime is dead.

The problem is, the U.S. and the European Union could easily push the matter with the Chinese, and they know it. The world economy is interconnected like never before. China is just as dependent on us as we are on them for so much, and if we want an international coup that would lead to a fully unified, democratic Korea, I don't think they'll have much of a choice.

Nah, precisely because the world is so economically interconnected, the US and EU will less likely pressure China on a united Korea. No one wants to tip the apple cart (which is what Kim Jong-Il is doing).

Notice, the world isn't making too big of a stink over the so-called 'democracy' in Hong Kong.

I strongly doubt China will stage a military invasion. For one thing, Kim has a little deterrent now. For another, it would alarm South Korea and Japan, who would fear NK retaliations against them. For a third, a Chinese occupation of the north of the Korean peninsula would mightily piss off China's friends in Seoul. Koreans have rather bad memories of being occupied.

It's far more likely that Chinese Intelligence will (if anything) work in the shadows to destabilise Kim's government from within, or somehow knock it down in one swift blow without sending in soldiers at all.

now IS the time for china to invade. nk's nuclear test was a failure--they told china that it would be about 4 megatons and it turned out to be less than one megaton. something went wrong

NK has shown its willingness to defy the international community but he doesnt have a bomb ready to use. going in now would be a very good idea.

china has friends in SK?

china might have a problem if it decided to occupy nk. they could however install a puppet dictator and keep the country in line if they proceeded to feed the masses. a nominal korean leader and a bit of freedom (even if its only the freedom from starvation) would go a long way.

i dont think they will invade and occupy the way they did with tibet. they had some claim to the territory of tibet as a lost province (not a good one in my opinion). they dont have the same face at stake in claiming korea as a natural part of china.

besides, tibet has been nothing but trouble and a money pit for china, korea would be much worse. south korea might very well take it as their own national pride to make the occupation of north korea as painful as possible for china.

Good thing China is considering the right thing.

frankly i would like to see china invade north korea... if only to prove the americans that there are other military powers in the world and that the scene is long changed from the end of the cold war... :p

i am quite amused though with people's impressions that it would be an easy war with all mighty chinese army crushing poor little korean army with silly dictator... and just if you are wondering wtf i'm ranting about: http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_active_troops bet that might surprise a few of those who were so excited about an invasion :p

that mihgt also be the reason why a coup would not necessarily be successfull... it would only promote the next general in line:headbang:

being surrounded by enimies with nukes .....not a good thing...:D
Well, they said themselves that there are two factions in the DPRK - a pro-Chinese faction, and Kim.

They just can't trust the North anymore, if they ever could. The 6-party talks were a measure to get the US hung up on something so they wouldn't try anything funny in the region (and that's important for the Chinese - they really don't want US troops all over their region).

Condition for that to work was that the North holds still and doesn't do anything stupid. The deal was probably something like: "We'll send you aid and stuff, and you don't give people a reason to hate you."

The North doublecrossed the Chinese, who therefore lost face in front of the world. So now the Chinese have to deal with a bunch of problems: firstly, an unstable neighbour of theirs got the bomb. Secondly, people try to flee from there into China all the time. Thirdly, that country keeps doing things that get foreign powers involved. Fourthly, China looks stupid now because it can't control its "lap dog".

So it's not a surprise that they would be thinking about all methods at their disposal to sort this out. I don't think "invasion" fits in there though - the article explicitly says "may back coup against Kim". So their secret service gets a bunch of pro-China officials and generals, plans the coup with them and supports it logistically and with information. They'd only put actual troops on the ground on a small scale if things go wrong. Just like it was back in Romania, which was also mentioned in the article.

Whether or not that new government will consider reunification...well, a long time in the future perhaps (like the PRC and Taiwan). They'd first need to sort out the economy and introduce a Chinese-style directed market capitalism, and that would take decades.

Still, the North Koreans would be better off.

Thats true, but if it came down to an actuall conventional invasion of the Nation I think it would be worse for the US to invade with the Chinese, When they both whoop the shit out of the N. Korean army and then meet in the middle the Two most powerful and rival nations on earth in this heightened sence, and oppositional sence, would most likley lead to some very hight blood shed, and perhaps and accidental war between the two in NK after Kim's regime is dead.
Accidental war between the US and China? That's impossible. Even if they shoot at each other (Belgrad Embassy fiasco?), the orders will come from above to stop it.

All and all, would be a lovley and good sight to watch the People's Liberation Army actually liberate someone for a change. And watch them smash and totally overwhelm NK's puney army compared to theres. And then watch Kim either die, or be tourtered to death by the Commisars of the PRC.

Calling a million-man-plus military that is well-supplied, heavily fortified and dug in "puny" is a bit much. And a large-scale deployment by China into NK is not something that can be carried out either quickly or easily.

IMO massive Chinese intervention in NK is unlikely.

And btw: I wonder how many who are now supporting a Chinese invasion of NK opposed the US invasion of Iraq?

And btw: I wonder how many who are now supporting a Chinese invasion of NK opposed the US invasion of Iraq?
With the two being equivalent and all...:rolleyes:

Hell, if it's done properly I'd support a US intervention in North Korea. Anything to free the people there from this abomination!

Well Japan is making noises of having its own nukes and anti nukes...
No it's not. It IS part of the US missile shield (the MSDF has US built destroyers with the system along with US Navy ones), but it is not making noice about going nuclear.

The idiot that suggested that Japan might want to consider the possibly of having a debate about possibly it might be a good idea to think about going nuclear is currently getting dogpiled.

Jesh, how many times do I need to keep repeating that it will take something very serious to get Japan to go nuclear and North Korea's little bomb ain't it?

Oops. Kim has really slipped up this time.

Whatever happens, if Kim does fall, the transition period to a new government is going to be extremely hard for the North Korean people.
I think that only an attack by Godzilla could make life worse for the average North Korean.

I think that only an attack by Godzilla could make life worse for the average North Korean.

You win every award there has ever been. Ever.

I think that only an attack by Godzilla could make life worse for the average North Korean.
I don't recall the big guy ever going after North Korea.

Hmm... maybe it's time for a new movie? :p

Calling a million-man-plus military that is well-supplied, heavily fortified and dug in "puny" is a bit much. And a large-scale deployment by China into NK is not something that can be carried out either quickly or easily.

IMO massive Chinese intervention in NK is unlikely.

And btw: I wonder how many who are now supporting a Chinese invasion of NK opposed the US invasion of Iraq?
There are several large differences here.

1. Kim Jong-Il is actually a threat. He has proven that he has nuclear weaponry, and is battier than a cave.

2. Unlike Saddam, Kim Jong-Il would never work with the United States if we needed another ally in the region.

3. We don't NEED another ally in the region.

4. The suffering in North Korea is almost as bad as Iraq right now anyway. Yes, we'd make it worse for a while, but with actual decent planning instead of mindless bumfuckery, we'd minimize that.

If all of this is on the level, then I would guesstimate that this is going to go down, very soon.

One way or another this will cause a humanitarian crisis. I think it would be easier to deal with such a crisis without lethal doses of radiation about.

Not that the US or EU would have invaded NK anyway, but this IS China's ballpark. They stand to suffer more damage than the West from nukes if Japan and others get in on the action.

It will be nice to see Il fall but would suck if S.Korea is next.

And yes. Tibet. Not again!

It's a textbook example of dammed if they do & dammed if they don't.

Well, China's one of those countries that if it talks about war, it doesn't matter who you are, you're either on their side or are very afraid.
All I can say is first of all, for the first time I think being under Chinese rule may actually improve the quality of life of an area, and second, hopefully whatever crackpot they put in control won't be as much of a threat to us as the current crackpot and we can get on to what we're all waiting for: IRAN RUMBLE ROYALE!

i am quite amused though with people's impressions that it would be an easy war with all mighty chinese army crushing poor little korean army with silly dictator... and just if you are wondering wtf i'm ranting about: http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_active_troops bet that might surprise a few of those who were so excited about an invasion :p

Except that the vast majority of North Korea's military is stationed along the DMZ to invade South Korea, or repel a SK/US attack.

Considering the fuel and food issues that North Korea would face within the first few days of such a conflict, it is entirely likely that the Chinese could be in Pyongyang before the North Koreans could properly reorient their forces.

Also...China has more than five times as many combat aircraft, twice as many armored vehicles, and 50% more artillery than NK has.

http://www.globalfirepower.com/index.asp

NK's regular troops are also poorly equipped, underfed, and only moderately trained, as the NKs have placed emphasis on their special forces, which amount to only about 10% of their active duty force.

In short, I think a Chinese move into NK might be a more one-sided affair than even the first Gulf War. The Chinese would likely suffer a significant number of casualties, but if they're even seriously considering such an action, I doubt the number of casualties phases them in the slightest.

The only thing that could throw it off is if NK uses a nuke against Chinese forces...but I don't think even NK is that stupid.

China may back coup against Kim

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...73-601,00.html
Not-gonna-happen.

Not-gonna-happen.

Care to elaborate?

Care to elaborate?For years.. many NSG bushevikes have been dreaming (and posting) about China "taking care" of the "problem"

pubert wet dreams.
sweet dreams.

still.. just dreams.

Care to elaborate?
Well, North Korea is still valuable as a buffer against the US or US client states. It doesn't want to be bumping heads along the fence line of the DMZ with the South (And the US would never allow the PLA to take the South) and REALLY doesn't want a united Korea with US access to the interior of China, especially with Japan and India on its flanks.

However, it also does not want a flood of North Koreas coming across the border, which is what it would get if Kim fell hard.

It really ties up China's hands, the same way the US's hands are tied.

I'd assume that China would work to replace Kim with someone who would listen better to China, but I see that more as providing monies and clansdine support as opposed to full out war.

Well, North Korea is still valuable as a buffer against the US or US client states.Exactamente.

USA wants to keep SK.. and China wants to keep NK.
If it wasnt for US and China.. Korea would be a one big happy country (well.. not the first years.. remember Germany?)

Calling a million-man-plus military that is well-supplied, heavily fortified and dug in "puny" is a bit much. And a large-scale deployment by China into NK is not something that can be carried out either quickly or easily.

IMO massive Chinese intervention in NK is unlikely.

And btw: I wonder how many who are now supporting a Chinese invasion of NK opposed the US invasion of Iraq?


China has influence in the NK military...why do they need to invade when they can get a few generals to put a bullet in Kim Bungs head ?

And the fact that China could send a couple million combat troops into NK cant be taaken lightly :D

You fooling yourself if you dont think the threat alone isn't scaring NK..especially the dudes that are now not among the starving NK people and are the " elite "...they want to keep thaat good life comming...and if Kim bung is an issue...well it sucks to be him.

China doesnt even have to invade they can just close the border and let KIM bung try to feed his country and himself and get oil and parts and MONEY and whatever....


Why is it the first thing that comes to mind is an invasion?

It friggin all these video games....:D

New cold war?
nope,
Who sees communisitic china beating the hell out of the us....
(no smilies)

China has influence in the NK military... Yes indeed.. Beijing has huge influence.. almost as much as Palpatine.. (I cant/wont find a reference in the real world.. lazy today)
China doesnt even have to invade.. You got that rite.. in NK.. what Beijing wants = Beijing gets.
You fooling yourself if you dont think the threat alone isn't scaring You are fooling yourself if you think that threat actually exists.

It will not surprise me in the least if China ends up 'annexing' North Korea, and the US will either look the other way, or endorse the move whole heartedly.

The West seems to have forgotten that China is not our friend, and that China expanding its territory and sphere of influence are not good for our collective futures.

It will not surprise me in the least if China ends up 'annexing' North Korea, and the US will either look the other way, or endorse the move whole heartedly.

The (US) seems to have forgotten that China is not our friend, and that China expanding its territory and sphere of influence are not good for our collective futures.we seem to have forgotten a lot of things..

and no.. China will NOT annex NK. ..China wants the status Quo.

we seem to have forgotten a lot of things..

and no.. China will NOT annex NK. ..China wants the status Quo.


When reality penetrates your brain ...you will understand that NK has demolished the " status quo "

:D :D

YOU talking about reality is whats really funny...:D

Japan with NUKES and Taiwan with NUKES ...thats China's NEW reality.
IF Kim Bung gets away with his crap ...:D

NOT to mention Vietnam ....:D :D


China want a NK without Nukes...not to annex them or have refugees or an NK costing them money.

All they need is to either pressure KIM bung or remove him and place a puppet ...problem solved.

Its Kim bungs turn...and I think he watched his last parade .



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061016.wnkor1016/BNStory/International

When reality penetrates your brain ...you will understand that NK has demolished the " status quo "

:D :D

YOU talking about reality is whats really funny...:D

Japan with NUKES and Taiwan with NUKES ...thats China's NEW reality.
IF Kim Bung gets away with his crap ...:D

NOT to mention Vietnam ....:D :D


China want a NK without Nukes...not to annex them or have refugees or an NK costing them money.

All they need is to either pressure KIM bung or remove him and place a puppet ...problem solved.

Its Kim bungs turn...and I think he watched his last parade .

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061016.wnkor1016/BNStory/International

I agree, for once. I think China is rapidly realising the "Status Quo" is dangerous for them - a NK with nukes as a status quo is not desirable for anyone in the area - or anyone at all for that matter. I think China feels it still has space to move, since the tests so far seem... less than successful. But not long. I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to simply set up a puppet dictatorship to replace Mr. Kim's. One which would be less rogue and rebellious than Kim is turning into. One like he used to be, completely wrapped around their finger.

Personally, I'd prefer to see a united free Korea, but there's not much worse than a paranoid rogue dictator with nukes, so I'd still go for htem invading. At least they're trying to be semi-accepted in the world, so they'd be less likely to nuke people on their way out.

When reality penetrates your brain ...

(Brazil, India, Venezuela, Egypt, Iran, Pâkistan) Japan with NUKES and Taiwan with NUKES ...thats the NEW reality.
IF Kim Bung gets away with his crap ...

NOT to mention Vietnam ...
That is indeed the new reality..

we got Israel to get away with it.. what did we expect?

wake up and smell the coffee.
Welcome to the new brave World.

I would like to see a hong Kong type enviroment at first...something that China may end up doing in NK...they can make a bundle of cash that way...and as China evolves into a semi Capitalist / socialist country with more freedom and a possible move toward a more democratic rule...the reunion of Korea. But its going to take decades ...the world is becomming one huge synergistic place as it is ...so it should happen eventually ...

If we survive the ddictator death thoes .

I would like to see a hong Kong type enviroment at first....wet dreams.

NK is not Hong Kong.. its actually the total oposite.
the wealth of Hong Kong took more than a hundred years to build.. China itsef is closer to that level.

I have the solution to this whole crisis. We need to do one thing and one thing alone.

Drop Hershey bars on North Korea. I'm not fucking kidding.

Sure, we can drop some real food. Send the Air Force in with some stealth planes, not that NK's discovered anything as advanced as electricity yet (kidding, but their weaponry is lightyears behind us) and, all of a sudden, people can eat. While we're at it, we drop things that say, "These meals brought to you courtesy of your friends at People Against Dear Leader. Your Dear Leader didn't do this. We did." Attach some irrefutable proof that the North Korean government didn't provide them food. Sure, at first they'll praise Dear Leader, but in time, people will get more satiated with continued food drops, and then we can start putting American flags in the shipments.

By this point, everyone pretty well knows that the North Korean government didn't provide this food. So we break out our secret weapon.

I'm talking, of course, about beer.

Good beer, too. Not this piss-water the Americans brew. Nope. For this one, we enlist the Irish and Germans. Maybe the Canadians. We make sure the military gets hold of it. Soon enough, people are getting their fair share of alcohol, and the military turns into a bunch of fat, happy, drunken slobs.

THEN we invade.

Anyone who's drunk, we ignore. Anyone who's sober, emaciated, and fighting to the last paranoid, Farquar-esque demagogue, we kill. And then we get to Kim. We capture him, put him on trial for being an egomaniacal asshole, we convict him, and then we sentence him to a lifetime of being a maximum-security tourist attraction in Tokyo. The Japanese government makes billions, and Kim eventually dies. His son gets his own game show on Japanese TV.

There. All it will take is a decade or two. All we need is for Hershey and Guinness to start producting big time.

Calling a million-man-plus military that is well-supplied, heavily fortified and dug in "puny" is a bit much. And a large-scale deployment by China into NK is not something that can be carried out either quickly or easily.

IMO massive Chinese intervention in NK is unlikely.

And btw: I wonder how many who are now supporting a Chinese invasion of NK opposed the US invasion of Iraq?

uh huh, and the fact that China could if nessicary put an army of about 22 million in the field is of no consequence?

People here be to assuming that if China was to dethrown Kim Jong-il that his replacement would be a pro-Western, pro-Unification Liberal. And I can't see why that would ever be the case.

Obviously China was to maintain a buffer state there, but there is a comfortable middle ground between what China wants, and what we want. For example, its likely that the Korean Workers' Party would stay in power, because the North Koreans are completely incapable of imagining life without it, but the replacement would be much more loyal to China and would be able to maintain power by offering the people Chinese-style industrial reforms.

Realistically though, China is not going to allow a pro-Western, Liberal Democratic regime in Pyongyang untill there is one in Beijing... and that's fifty years away at least.

Realistically though, China is not going to allow a pro-Western, Liberal Democratic regime in Pyongyang untill there is one in Beijing... and that's fifty years away at least.

more like one-hundred and fifty.

People here be to assuming that if China was to dethrown Kim Jong-il that his replacement would be a pro-Western, pro-Unification Liberal. And I can't see why that would ever be the case.

Obviously China was to maintain a buffer state there, but there is a comfortable middle ground between what China wants, and what we want. For example, its likely that the Korean Workers' Party would stay in power, because the North Koreans are completely incapable of imagining life without it, but the replacement would be much more loyal to China and would be able to maintain power by offering the people Chinese-style industrial reforms.

Realistically though, China is not going to allow a pro-Western, Liberal Democratic regime in Pyongyang untill there is one in Beijing... and that's fifty years away at least.

I'm not saying that there would be a pro-West liberal or even a pro-West Syngman Rhee in North Korea. What I am saying is that whoever China puts in is far less likely to be batshit insane than Kim Jong Il is. Sure, they might keep some semblance of the same structure, but instead of a totalitarian, 1984-esque cult of personality, a pro-China, pro-some-free-market, iron-fisted dictator will arise. Come to think of it, that person may be an awful lot like Syngman Rhee.

4. The suffering in North Korea is almost as bad as Iraq right now anyway.

"Almost as bad"? You really have no idea what you're talking about, do you?

more like one-hundred and fifty.

Nah, give the Chinese some credit. At the way the economy is going there will be a huge middle class within a generation. And once the entire middle class is financially secure enough to be able to seriously petition government to allow them more liberty.

Oppressing peasants and paupers is easy as piss, but oppressing middle class bankers and lawyers... not so easy.

Japan with NUKES
Get it though your head people, JAPAN. IS. NOT. GOING. NUCLEAR!

South Korea, maybe. Taiwan, possibly (though doubtful China would let them). Japan will need something more major than Kim to get them to go there.

Get it though your head people, JAPAN. IS. NOT. GOING. NUCLEAR!

South Korea, maybe. Taiwan, possibly (though doubtful China would let them). Japan will need something more major than Kim to get them to go there.


Actually Japan is the most likely in the region to go Nuclear. South Korea is too soft and Taiwan is too controversial. Japan would be willing to go nuclear and has the resources to do so in a matter of months...with U.S. backing.

if there is a coup in NK, it will be a quiet one. if that fails then there would be an all out invasion. as someone suggested though it would get messy. China has no interest in liberating or feeding the people in N. Korea, they just want to keep the American allies in the region, particularly Taiwan, from going Nuclear.

Yeah, totally agree with you, China wouldn't face the same problems we have in Iraq or elsewhere. Most of the problems in Iraq are perpetuated by Religion, religous extremest, al-queda, and Sectionalism, Not by national resistance. These wouldnt be an issue in NK because there is no religion, and no sectarianism, and there is no way in hell al-queda would show up in NK to fight the chinease. Any North Korean resistance would be obliterated by the PLA. Esspecailly how much better life would get after the invasion.
Your points are correct except about religion. The nationalistic doctrine of Juche has reached a religious level to NKoreans.