NationStates Jolt Archive

I did one of these for the terror alert over the summer--Sarkhaan won--so I figured I might try it again for this. Here's the contest: predict the final tally of Democratic and Republican seats in the House of Representatives after the Nov. 7 elections. This will not include people who change parties after the elections, and will not necessarily be the actual makeup of the House in 2007 when the new members are sworn in, but will be the party affiliations of the winners of the Nov. 7 elections.

For those who aren't up on their Civics lessons, or for non-citizens who with to take part in the contest and are unfamiliar with the US House, here's some basic knowledge.

There are 435 seats in the House. It takes 218 to make a majority. Currently, the break down is 230 Republican, 201 Democratic, 3 vacant seats and 1 independent. The independent is currently running for the US Senate and will likely win.

So for your entries into the contest, I want a breakdown of Democratic, Republican and Independent/3rd party seats. The entries will be listed in this post, and it's first come, first served, so the first person with a prediction gets to keep it, and repeats will be disqualified and asked to resubmit. I'll wait a bit before posting my own entry.

Entries:
Ice Hockey Players----------Rep 226 Dem 199 Ind 0
King Bodacious--------------Rep 221 Dem 210 Ind 4
The Nazz---------------------Rep 212 Dem 223 Ind 0
Jello Biafra-------------------Rep 215 Dem 220 Ind 0
Farmhamia-------------------Rep 210 Dem 225 Ind 0
Arthais 101-------------------Rep 216 Dem 219 Ind 0
DragonTide-------------------Rep 205 Dem 230 Ind 0
Cannot Think of a Name-----Rep 209 Dem 224 Ind 2
Nadkor------------------------Rep 211 Dem 224 Ind 0
Psychotic Dan----------------Rep 217 Dem 218 Ind 0
Thriceaddict------------------Rep 227 Dem 208
[NS]Fried Tuna---------------Rep 217 Dem 217 Ind 1
RLI Rides Again--------------Rep 215 Dem 215 Ind 5
Dinaverg---------------------Rep 204 Dem 228 Ind 3
Soviestan--------------------Rep 237 Dem 198 Ind 0
Fleckenstein-----------------Rep 215 Dem 217 Ind 3
Greill-------------------------Rep 233 Dem 201 Ind 1
Pistol Whip------------------Rep 221 Dem 211 Ind 0
Sarkhaan--------------------Rep 213 Dem 222 Ind 0
Novemberstan---------------Rep 216 Dem 218 Ind 1
Dexlysia---------------------Rep 208 Dem 227 Ind 0
Andaluciae------------------Rep 215 Dem 219 Zombie 1
Dobbsworld-----------------Rep 218 Dem 217 Ind 0
The Lone Alliance----------Rep 213 Dem 221 Ind 1
Bitchkitten------------------Rep 210 Dem 221 Ind 4
Demented Hamsters-------Rep 214 Dem 221 Ind 0
Maineiacs-------------------Rep 215 Dem 219 Ind 1
TJ Hairball------------------Rep 203 Dem 230 Ind 2
Delator---------------------Rep 214 Dem 220 Ind 1
Upper Botswavia----------Rep 209 Dem 225 Ind 1
Canuck Heaven------------Rep 204 Dem 230 Ind 1
Left Euphoria--------------Rep 1 Dem 410 Green 47 (plus one arithmetic lesson)
Kyronea--------------------Rep 212 Dem 218 Ind 5
Free Havens---------------Rep 220 Dem 214 Ind 1
Kinda Sensible People-----Rep 190 Dem 245 Ind 0

Republican advantage of 236-199.

Repubicans 221 Democrats 210 Ind/3rd party 4

Libertarians all the way! W00t!

Come on--there's got to be more interest than this, right? ;)

Rep 215 Dem 220 Ind 0

Republican 210 Democrat 225 Independent 0

rep 216 dem 219

Dem-230
Rep-205
Ind-0

This would be so much easier if editing the OP bumped the thread. :p

Republican advantage of 236-199.

you think republicans are going to GAIN seats?

what in the world are you smoking?

rep 216 dem 219You one-upper, you. :)

you think republicans are going to GAIN seats?

what in the world are you smoking?

Well, there's nothing quite like cognitive dissonance.

You one-upper, you. :)

I have my reasons.

I don't think the dems can pull a full 20 seats.

Likewise I hope for a dem majority, and 217-218 sits too close to my comfort. And since dems at 220 was called already, I'm gonna hope for a realistic 216-219

Uneducated guess (I mean seriously, I don't have the vaguest idea...)

Rep 209 Dem 224 Ind 2

Dem - 224
Rep - 211
Ind - 0

217 Rep
219 dem

I'll be a cynic and say:
reps 227
dems 208

Rep 217 Dem 217 Ind 1.

...just because it would be VERY interesting.

Uneducated guess:
-215 Republican.
-215 Democrat.
-5 Independant/Vacant

Hmmm...3 Ind, 228 Dem, 204 Rep

Uneducated guess:
-215 Republican.
-215 Democrat.
-5 Independant/Vacant

That would boost C-Span ratings over the next couple of years. :D

Uneducated guess:
-215 Republican.
-215 Democrat.
-5 Independant/Vacant

If there's 5 vacant seats straight after the election one would have to wonder if they should get better health insurance...

217 Rep
219 dem
That's 436. ;)

237-198 in favour of Repubs.

Rep 216, Dem 218, 1 indy

That would boost C-Span ratings over the next couple of years. :D

*google-defines 'C-Span'*

*giggles*

*posts on NS*

Republican 215
Democrat 217
Independant/Other 3

Lets screw with America! :p

232 Republicans, 199 Democrats, 1 independent.

If there's 5 vacant seats straight after the election one would have to wonder if they should get better health insurance...

I was expecting independants to benifit from growing disillusionment with the two main parties. Whether or not there really is wide-spread disillusionment across the USA I don't know.

221 Republican,
214 Democratic
0 Independent

Pretty sure that's exactly how it will turn out.

213 rep
222 dem
0 ind

213 rep
222 dem
0 ind
Since the reigning champ has posted, I've updated. ;)

208 rep
227 dems
0 ind

Since the reigning champ has posted, I've updated. ;)

haha...sadly, I don't have much logic to back this guess. I just kinda like having "222" in there, and 213 was my old locker number...


this makes me like those creepy lotto people, doesn't it?

oh, and btw, in the op, you put 232...not 222 ;)

Entries:
Ice Hockey Players----------Rep 226 Dem 199 Ind 0
King Bodacious--------------Rep 221 Dem 210 Ind 4
The Nazz---------------------Rep 212 Dem 223 Ind 0
Jello Biafra-------------------Rep 215 Dem 220 Ind 0
Farmhamia-------------------Rep 210 Dem 225 Ind 0
Arthais 101-------------------Rep 216 Dem 219 Ind 0
DragonTide-------------------Rep 205 Dem 230 Ind 0
Cannot Think of a Name-----Rep 209 Dem 224 Ind 2
Nadkor------------------------Rep 211 Dem 224 Ind 0
Psychotic Dan----------------Rep 217 Dem 218 Ind 0
Thriceaddict------------------Rep 227 Dem 208
[NS]Fried Tuna---------------Rep 217 Dem 217 Ind 1
RLI Rides Again--------------Rep 215 Dem 215 Ind 5
Dinaverg---------------------Rep 204 Dem 228 Ind 3
Soviestan--------------------Rep 237 Dem 198 Ind 0
Fleckenstein-----------------Rep 215 Dem 217 Ind 3
Greill-------------------------Rep 232 Dem 199 Ind 1 (Doesn't add up to 435)
Pistol Whip------------------Rep 221 Dem 211 Ind 0
Sarkhaan--------------------Rep 213 Dem 222 Ind 0
Novemberstan---------------Rep 216 Dem 218 Ind 1

So far I've predicted the most Democrats.
I know a lot of you out there want ME to win! :p
No need to post. Just snap your fingers. I'll hear it!! :D

haha...sadly, I don't have much logic to back this guess. I just kinda like having "222" in there, and 213 was my old locker number...


this makes me like those creepy lotto people, doesn't it?

oh, and btw, in the op, you put 232...not 222 ;)

Fixed. Thanks.

Could you fix mine, too? No independents.
Thanks.

D'oh! 233 Republican, 201 Democrat, 1 Independent. Sorry about that.

Fixed. Keeping up with this is a bitch. ;)

237-198 in favour of Repubs.

you think republicans are going to GAIN seats?

what in the world are you smoking?

you think republicans are going to GAIN seats?

what in the world are you smoking?
Maybe he believes in never underestimating the power of Diebold.

D'oh! 233 Republican, 201 Democrat, 1 Independent. Sorry about that.

you think republicans are going to GAIN seats?

what in the world are you smoking?

(I'm posting that every time I see someone post that the republicans will have more than 230 seats).

Fried Tuna;11817407']Rep 217 Dem 217 Ind 1.

...just because it would be VERY interesting.

NOOOOOO :headbang: :headbang:
I wanted to say this! :(

We have something similar going on here in Czech Republic... 100 deputates right wing (ODS, KDU-CSL, The Greens) 100 deputates left wing (CSSD, KSCM)
It's the 4th month now we are without a working government...
On friday we start Senate elections.

I don't know.

NOOOOOO :headbang: :headbang:
I wanted to say this! :(

We have something similar going on here in Czech Republic... 100 deputates right wing (ODS, KDU-CSL, The Greens) 100 deputates left wing (CSSD, KSCM)
It's the 4th month now we are without a working government...
On friday we start Senate elections.
The Greens are a right wing party in the Czech Rep?

you think republicans are going to GAIN seats?

what in the world are you smoking?

(I'm posting that every time I see someone post that the republicans will have more than 230 seats).

I don't see a compelling reason why the people, even if they do dislike Republicans, would prefer the Democrats. Plus, the Reps have been slowly gaining seats for over a decade now. Also, I hate Nancy Pelosi and would likely go insane if she had any more air-time.

I don't see a compelling reason why the people, even if they do dislike Republicans, would prefer the Democrats. Plus, the Reps have been slowly gaining seats for over a decade now. Also, I hate Nancy Pelosi and would likely go insane if she had any more air-time.

I have not seen one single reliable piece of information that suggests republicans will GAIN seats. Just about every single source, even the most right wing ones, admit the republican party WILL lose ground in both houses. The only question is whether they will lose enough to lose the majority.

They may keep both, or one of the house, they may lose both, however there seems to be virtually NO doubt unless something DRASTIC happens in the next three weeks, that they are going to lose seats.

I have not seen one single reliable piece of information that suggests republicans will GAIN seats. Just about every single source, even the most right wing ones, admit the republican party WILL lose ground in both houses. The only question is whether they will lose enough to lose the majority.

They may keep both, or one of the house, they may lose both, however there seems to be virtually NO doubt unless something DRASTIC happens in the next three weeks, that they are going to lose seats.

*Shrugs* I didn't say the Democrats would lose seats, either, there are vacant seats. Also, I have doubts as to the methodology of all opinion polls, and therefore do not trust them.

*Shrugs* I didn't say the Democrats would lose seats, either, there are vacant seats. Also, I have doubts as to the methodology of all opinion polls, and therefore do not trust them.

*shrug* say what you want about them, they do have pretty good accuracy.

you think republicans are going to GAIN seats?

what in the world are you smoking?

Camel menthols and Marlboro lights why? what are you smoking? And yes they will gain seats, never underestimate the ability for democrats to lose elections they should win. 3 weeks is a long time in politics.

Rep 215, Dem 220, after the election

One of the Dems will keel over a and die in December though, but come back to life as a zombie, and become the only Zombie Party member of Congress.

Dobbs' picks:

Rep 218 Dem 217 Ind 0

Dobbs' picks:

Rep 218 Dem 217 Ind 0

No Zombies? Ahhhhhhhhhhhhh...

My guess 213-221-1
Unless it's a rigged election then its
218-217-0

No Zombies? Ahhhhhhhhhhhhh...

Just for you:

(drum roll please)

http://i83.photobucket.com/albums/j315/crashcow/NSG/dawn.jpg

Just for you:

(drum roll please)

http://i83.photobucket.com/albums/j315/crashcow/NSG/dawn.jpg

You's got's me a grinnin'!

Rats, I was hoping this was a pool for who would be the next scandal.

Rep 210
Dem 221
Ind/3rd party 4

I will say this one for certain: Ralph Regula will continue to represent the sixteenth district in Ohio, with no challenge whatsoever.

I will say this one for certain: Ralph Regula will continue to represent the sixteenth district in Ohio, with no challenge whatsoever.

He has a challenger (http://www.dccc.org/races/candidates/OH_16_Thomas_Shaw.html). That challenger may not have a hope in hell--you're there, so you know--but there's at least a name on the ballot.

Rep 214 Dem 221

complete wild guess.

If this guess is still open, I'll take:

D: 219
R: 215
I: 1

Wishful thinking:

D 230
R 202
I 2 <=== Really wishful, eh?

So far I've predicted the most Democrats.
I know a lot of you out there want ME to win! :p
No need to post. Just snap your fingers. I'll hear it!! :D

I've predicted the most Republicans :D

I've predicted the most Republicans :D

*offers a whole hearty handshake wishing the best candidates will win* :D
http://www.postsmile.com/img/emotions/236.gif

If this guess is still open, I'll take:

D: 219
R: 215
I: 1
As long as your independent isn't a zombie, then you're good. Otherwise, Andaluciae has it.
Wishful thinking:

D 230
R 202
I 2 <=== Really wishful, eh?
I hope you're right on the Dems, but you're a seat short overall.

Democrats: 220
Republicans: 214
Independents: 1

I shall win 240 seats. The rest will be vacant.

I (having not a clue, but wanting to play the game) will take
Republicans - 209 Democrats - 225 Independents - 1 please.

Thanks.

:D

219 Republicans, 216 Democrats.

In total, 435 idiots who will continue to screw up our country.

*offers a whole hearty handshake wishing the best candidates will win* :D
http://www.postsmile.com/img/emotions/236.gif

good luck:D

I hope you're right on the Dems, but you're a seat short overall.
What, you don't think anybody will die or get kicked out between election and signing in?

221 Republican
211 Democrat
003 Independent
----------------
435 Total

What, you don't think anybody will die or get kicked out between election and signing in?

I qualified that in the OP--the numbers of seats held by parties or independents as of the counting of the votes after the Nov. 7 elections. But I suppose I can make a mod-exception. ;)

I qualified that in the OP--the numbers of seats held by parties or independents as of the counting of the votes after the Nov. 7 elections. But I suppose I can make a mod-exception. ;)
No, don't... add one Republican, I don't want to be an exception and I'm guessing it would be one of those. They seem to be more in season for scandals.

http://www.louisvilledemocrat.com/images/DemocratSymbol_003.JPG230

http://www.allenmugs.com/beads/republican.jpg204

INDEPENDENT: ONE

401 dems
47 greens
and 0 evil baby eating rep!!!1

My guess: Republicans 212, Dems 218, Independents 5.

I also hazard a guess that one of the Republicans will be Tom Tancredo. I seriously doubt Bill Winter will defeat that mindsucking son of a bitch no matter how decent a campaigner he is, because Tancredo seems to have this ability to stick like a leech.

My guess: Republicans 212, Dems 218, Independents 5.

I also hazard a guess that one of the Republicans will be Tom Tancredo. I seriously doubt Bill Winter will defeat that mindsucking son of a bitch no matter how decent a campaigner he is, because Tancredo seems to have this ability to stick like a leech.

What, pray tell, is so horrible about Tom Tancredo? I mean, besides the fact that he's a politican from one of the two major parties and is, thus, a moron. Why do you seem to have such hatred for him? I used to live in his district and voted for him (back in my carefree, naive, voting-for-one-of-the-two-parties days).

What, pray tell, is so horrible about Tom Tancredo? I mean, besides the fact that he's a politican from one of the two major parties and is, thus, a moron. Why do you seem to have such hatred for him? I used to live in his district and voted for him (back in my carefree, naive, voting-for-one-of-the-two-parties days).

First, it's his sheer racism and intent on only ever focusing on immigration, and taking all the wrong steps to controlling it. Furthermore, it's his inability to have any position whatsoever on any other issue, and any position he DOES hold either matches Bush's or is just something he takes from the party line to give an answer. When in office, all he DOES is rant about immigration. Furthermore, I've met the guy personally once, and he's just a psychopathic maniac, not to mention a rude bastard. He's a horrible person, a horrible politician, and one I NEVER want to see in office ever AGAIN!

Un-edjumacated Guess:
Republicans 220
Democrats 214
Independent 1

In a more perfect world:
Libertarian 230
Independent 220
Rep/Dem 5

In the horrid world of my nightmares:
U.S Labor Party 435 (L. Larouche, president for life)
Opposition Parties -- 0/vacated -- names not in system.

My dream:

130 Republicans
130 Democrats
175 various third party and/or independents.

My expectation:

228 Democrats
205 Republicans
2 Independents.

My reasonable hope:

215 Democrats
215 Republicans
5 Independents.

Nothing would tickle my happy spot more than neither major party having a majority. :)

Nothing would tickle my happy spot more than neither major party having a majority. :)

You, me, and every other American with actual sense.

Nothing would tickle my happy spot more than neither major party having a majority. :)
If that happened, someone might get disappeared? :eek:

There should be a separate game for independants. That's a contest in and of itself.

My dream:

130 Republicans
130 Democrats
175 various third party and/or independents.

My expectation:

228 Democrats
205 Republicans
2 Independents.

My reasonable hope:

215 Democrats
215 Republicans
5 Independents.

Nothing would tickle my happy spot more than neither major party having a majority. :)

So which one's your entry?

Republicans: 215.
Democrats: 219.
Independents: 1.

Dems 218
Reps 217
Ind - 0

Republicans: 215.
Democrats: 219.
Independents: 1.

Someone's already got that choice.

Dems 218
Reps 217
Ind - 0

Also already taken

Also already taken

Bah... Then I lose... After all, I think the dems will barely squeak by...

Fine...

Dems - 245
Reps - 190

Just so that if I win, I can blame chaos theory. :p

Bah... Then I lose... After all, I think the dems will barely squeak by...

Fine...

Dems - 245
Reps - 190

Just so that if I win, I can blame chaos theory. :p
You got it, though Dragontide will be so sad.

http://www.louisvilledemocrat.com/images/DemocratSymbol_003.JPG230

http://www.allenmugs.com/beads/republican.jpg204

INDEPENDENT: ONE

Go Donkeys Go!!

Can we get the OP of this thread merged onto the house sticky?

Can we get the OP of this thread merged onto the house sticky?
I don't think so (just being a pool), and since The Nazz is on holiday, I just wanted to remind those that put their predictions in.

Can we get the OP of this thread merged onto the house sticky?

No, it would screw things up.

How about this? When we've got a final tally, somebody can post results. In the meantime, take all discussion to the sticky threads or risk a lock. Fair?

No, it would screw things up.

How about this? When we've got a final tally, somebody can post results. In the meantime, take all discussion to the sticky threads or risk a lock. Fair?
Fair enough!! :)

No, it would screw things up.

How about this? When we've got a final tally, somebody can post results. In the meantime, take all discussion to the sticky threads or risk a lock. Fair?

Fair. Actually I dont even know what merging a thread is. :confused: Just thought this thread was so cool with so many making a prediction.

Thank you.

No idea being australian .. just going on media hype

Rep 203 Dem 227 Ind 1

Is it too late?

So which one's your entry?

My expectation, of course. :)

This link (http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14289270/) from msnbc has had all seats decided for a while. But the numbers keep changing. LoL :D

Kinda Sensible People still has a chance to take this.

The Nazz has asked me to call a winner, as he is currently on break.

CNN currently counts 13 seats up, so I'll call when those are settled.

Kinda Sensible People still has a chance to take this.
You are the closest right now.

Current results: 201-234-0

Did the independents win one? Different results, depending on which link you look at. :confused:

You are the closest right now.

Current results: 201-234-0
0_o ... that's almost unbelievable.

0_o ... that's almost unbelievable.

Grats TJ!!! http://www.postsmile.com/img/emotions/222.gif

0_o ... that's almost unbelievable.
The closest ones from what I can see are:

DragonTide-------------------Rep 205 Dem 230 Ind 0
TJ Hairball------------------Rep 203 Dem 230 Ind 2
Canuck Heaven------------Rep 204 Dem 230 Ind 1
Of course, the results aren't finalized yet, but certainly in the ball park. :D

Yes the results are somewhat unbelieveable, but I made my prediction based on polls that suggested that the numbers for Dems in 2006 were similar to numbers for Reps in 1994.

And yes they will gain seats, never underestimate the ability for democrats to lose elections they should win. 3 weeks is a long time in politics.

O RLY?