NationStates Jolt Archive


We need another good alternate history thread

Ice Hockey Players
25-09-2006, 21:15
Every once in a great while, we have a good alternate history thread. For those who enjoy speculation, it's a lot of fun. For those who flame those who like to speculate, go away. And for those who confuse this with revisionist history, please do a Wiki search on both.

Anywho, in another speculation thread I made just now (the widely popular "What if Bush doesn't quit?" thread...yes, I know the idea's a bit hard to believe as future history, but that's not the point here) I wondered aloud what would happen if no one burned down the Reichstag. Hitler seemed to get lucky in that the Reichstag got torched while Hindenburg had him as Chancellor. What if that doesn't happen? What if that Dutch Communist got arrested beforhand for stealing a pair of shoes from an old man or something? (I am also speculating that the Nazis didn't, in fact, indirectly cause the Reichstag burning and that it was just coincidence that Hitler was Chancellor at the time.)

OK, so no Reichstag fire. Hindenburg had dissolved Parliament per Hitler's urgings, and he needed a two-thirds majority to pass the Enabling Act. With no Reichstag fire, the fear of Communism is somewhat stemmed. Therefore, with elections, Hitler's advantage isn't good enough to get the Enabling Act passed. Having dismissed two Chancellors prior to Hitler, Hindenburg has no qualms about dismissing Hitler, and out he goes. (Maybe it doesn't happen like that, but the way I see it, no Enabling Act, no dictatorship.) So with Hindenburg sacking Hitler, he decides, in failing health, to try to mold Germany into what he had realy always hoped for - another monarchy. Crown Prince Wilhelm, son of Kaiser Wilhelm II, becomes Kaiser Wilhelm III. Wilhelm III, upon the death of Hindenburg, is made a hereditary monarch and head of state in Germany, although the Parliament still exists and Wilhelm still has to work with it.

With no office of the President as we know it anymore, Parliament tries to elect a Prime Minister to represent itself, but no majority can be attained. Meanwhile, Comintern, having not been shut out of Germany by a lone nut, is planting the seeds of revolution in Germany. The Germans look to the south and see Italy as nothing more than an annoying pest. Sure, Mussolini's in power, but Wilhelm warns them not to engage anyone, and it's something upon which the French and British are in full agreement. Another is that they don't trust the Soviets, but neither do the Italians, so as long as the Italians leave the Germans, French, and British alone, Wilhelm will be contented to try to deal with his own people. However, his own people are growing weary of an economic depression that seems to be lasting longer than it should be.

As it is, the Germans' patience runs out in 1939 while Italy's running amok in southern Europe and Japan's busy subjugating east Asia. Wilhelm's overthrown, exiled to somewhere, and Germany turns Communist. Following in their example, Austria does the same, and so does a good portion of eastern Europe. By this point, the British and French are panicked and tell the Russians to unhand Germany. They disavow any incitement of the German revolution, and when one of Italy's puppet states turns Communist, it incites a declaration of war from the British and French.

The Americans, who tended not to sympathize with the Communists, see Italy as an annoying pest and Japan as a legitimate threat. Thus, we're looking at war on two fronts against two different, unrelated opponents. That is, if the Americans and Japanese ever go to war, which happens, predictably, around...wait a minute. Japanese militarists were inspired in part by Germany's success. Germany's Communist in this timeline, so the attack on Pearl Harbor gets pushed back. Not by much, though, since the oil embargo had a lot to do with it. On the first of February 1942, the Japanese attack Pearl Harbor. As we all know, that seemed to piss off the Americans, and a stirring speech by President John Garner (Roosevelt is cautioned against a third term in this timeline, since there's no Nazi threat) awakens the sleeping giant that is the U.S.

Now, from our end, the British, French, Italians, and Spanish (no Franco here) are fighting what looks like a losing battle with the Russians. Meanwhile, the Americans are fighting a losing-at-first battle with the Japanese that turns into a winning one in 1942. The Allies are pushing for a declaration of war by the U.S. against the USSR, but no such luck. They are told that the U.S. will help out once the Japanese are defeated. That happens around early 1944 with a full-scale invasion of Tokyo. The Japanese Emperor surrenders, and the U.S. begins rebuilding Japan with the Emperor as a figurehead. Basically, they want to ensure that nothing like this happens again and that the Communists don't get their hands on east Asia.

Communism begins to take hold in a run-down China and Korea, but with no nuclear threat, the U.S. is happy to support people in the mold of Syngman Rhee and Chiang Kai-shek. Korea doesn't split in two, and east Asia becomes a bastion of capitalism. Meanwhile, the Soviets are fighting a tiring war of attrition with the Allies for years and years...until a weakened Italy switches to the Soviet side and executes Mussolini in 1946. The Allies accuse the U.S. of a "broken promise" and there's a lot of resentment from the Allies; even a Marshall Plan-esque aid backage complete with a new Lend-Lease only sort of placates the Allies.

What the Lend-Lease does, though, is it allows the war to continue. The Soviets are weary of war, and in 1948, calls for negotiation are made. Also, a new weapon, the atomic bomb, is under development in the U.S. The Soviets know of the weapon, but as part of the Lend-Lease, the Americans pass it off to the British to use on Stalingrad. Around 100,000 Russians die, and when Minsk is bombed next, the Soviets surrender. Joseph Stalin is deposed, and Communism is regarded as a defeated ideology. Granted, plenty of people are not ready to let it go, and what's left of the Soviet Union is far from stable, but the beginnings of rebuilding are underway.

The United Nations is formed in 1949, with permanent seats for the United States, Great Britain, France, Spain, and China, with one conspicuously missing for the Soviet Union. Many nations join, but others that were not involved in the war are suspicious and stay out. The next 25 years are seen as a time of peace, prosperity, and perhaps the end to major global conflict, but there's trouble brewing. Extremist Islam doesn't take form in some ways, but the Islamic world is bitter at the West for a number of other reasons. Israel doesn't really exist at this point, since there wasn't a Holocaust to spark it, but many Jews are migrating to Palestine and clamoring for a Jewish state. The Islamic world is also bitter about being excluded from much of the decision-making process in the world, and it feels that the only hope it has is to unite under one banner; Wahhabist groups see their brand of islam as the best and the only. Naturally, there is conflict between the Islamic world and the West, so the global supply of oil is somewhat threatened, and there is some fear that they will develop the underdeveloped hydrogen bombs.

OK, so maybe one lone nut at the Reichstag wasn't the major cause of the majority of the last half-century of conflict, and maybe the Muslim would would be more bitter at us in the absence of a Cold War, not less. However, again, this is speculation, and I had to make it interesting.
Gruenberg
25-09-2006, 21:21
Slow down. The Nazis burned down the Reichstag. If there'd been no February 27th, there would have been a February 28th.

And even if you don't buy that, I think you're overplaying the significance. Sure, Kroll was a nice set up, and tyranny always thrives in the wake of disaster. For example, you say the Enabling Act was the reason Hitler stayed on Chancellor. If you think Hindenburg had enough power to reinstate the monarchy, why wouldn't he have done so when he had the chance? He hated Hitler - no reason for him to allow him to become Chancellor to "fill the gap" or whatever.

The Nazis were expert at organizing violence - Knight of the Long Knives, Kristallnacht, and that whole Holocaust thing. If it hadn't been the Reichstag, there would have been another event not so far down the line that they would have used to pin blame on the Communists, and gain greater control than their votes dictated. I'm not convinced the Reichstag not burning down creates quite such divergence.
Minaris
25-09-2006, 21:24
Good job. Lemme see if I can continue this for you.
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The Muslims find their suoerfields of oil and use that as a bribe to the US to get it into the UN. Since the US does not need the oil at the time (remember the the Cold war didn't happen, so no high tech :( ), they refuse. Meanwhile, the Muslims persecute the Zionist Jews for obvious reasons. Since there is no Israel, noone cares. The Middle East forms itself into three states: Kurdistan, Sunnistan (N. Africa), and Shiastan. These three states grow in power as they sell oil to the East, attempting to align with them to overthrow the West's power. So China develops into a state with many technologies similar to the West.
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Anyone else got anything?
Naliitr
25-09-2006, 21:27
Hey! It's my job to start alternate history threads!
Ice Hockey Players
25-09-2006, 21:31
Slow down. The Nazis burned down the Reichstag. If there'd been no February 27th, there would have been a February 28th.

I wasn't clear. The person who burned the Reichstag claimed to act alone. If they burned the Reichstag, the question turns into this: OK, what if they got caught a la Watergate? What if it blew up in the Nazis' faces?

And even if you don't buy that, I think you're overplaying the significance. Sure, Kroll was a nice set up, and tyranny always thrives in the wake of disaster. For example, you say the Enabling Act was the reason Hitler stayed on Chancellor. If you think Hindenburg had enough power to reinstate the monarchy, why wouldn't he have done so when he had the chance? He hated Hitler - no reason for him to allow him to become Chancellor to "fill the gap" or whatever.

Hindenburg was very reluctant to put Hitler on as Chancellor; I don't really think Hindenburg cared for Hitler...I'll grant that. That said, if the Nazis can't get things done, why would Hindenburg keep Hitler on? The idea of this alternate history is that the Nazis fail at getting the Enabling Act passed, prove to be as inefficient as the previous Parliaments, and Hitler doesn't last.

The Enabling Act was a result of Hitler and the Nazis getting things done. No one else did that. If that gets taken away, what do the Nazis have on their record? Jack squat, that's what.

The Nazis were expert at organizing violence - Knight of the Long Knives, Kristallnacht, and that whole Holocaust thing. If it hadn't been the Reichstag, there would have been another event not so far down the line that they would have used to pin blame on the Communists, and gain greater control than their votes dictated. I'm not convinced the Reichstag not burning down creates quite such divergence.

If the Nazis stay in power long enough to pull off a Reichstag fire, they win, Hindenburg dies with Hitler in power, and the Nazis seize Germany. If Hindenburg gets fed up with Hitler and the Nazis, Hitler goes back home to Austria, the Nazis fall out of favor, and Hindenburg, in the twilight of life, decides, "Screw it - I'm doing what I want." Crown Prince Wilhelm was put in for no other reason than that he was the logical successor to Wilhelm II.
Ice Hockey Players
25-09-2006, 21:31
Hey! It's my job to start alternate history threads!

Well, keep this one going then. Got any good ones?
Farnhamia
25-09-2006, 21:32
Hmm ... If John Nance Garner is President, I think Huey Long should be Vice-President. How was Garner's health?
Minaris
25-09-2006, 21:33
Well, keep this one going then.

After my part, of course
Naliitr
25-09-2006, 21:35
Well, keep this one going then. Got any good ones?

What would've happened if the Hindenburg hadn't burned down. This may seem rather inconsequential, but you'd be suprised how different our world would be if we kept advancing airship technology.
Minaris
25-09-2006, 21:39
What would've happened if the Hindenburg hadn't burned down. This may seem rather inconsequential, but you'd be suprised how different our world would be if we kept advancing airship technology.

Make a thread for that. That one is good.

Hmm... what about a thread where WWI somehow was avoided?

No WWI would make the world very different.
For example, America would be isolationist...
Naliitr
25-09-2006, 21:41
Make a thread for that. That one is good.

Hmm... what about a thread where WWI somehow was avoided?

No WWI would make the world very different.
For example, America would be isolationist...

There would've been no WWII nazi-style. Russian revolution wouldn't have happened like it did. British Empire would presumably be bigger. There would be any more wars in the southern Europe area. (WWI kind of resolved 99% of them) Lots of things.
Minaris
25-09-2006, 21:42
There would've been no WWII nazi-style. Russian revolution wouldn't have happened like it did. British Empire would presumably be bigger. There would be any more wars in the southern Europe area. (WWI kind of resolved 99% of them) Lots of things.

I made a new thread for this...
Gruenberg
25-09-2006, 21:50
I wasn't clear. The person who burned the Reichstag claimed to act alone. If they burned the Reichstag, the question turns into this: OK, what if they got caught a la Watergate? What if it blew up in the Nazis' faces?
Van der Lubbe wasn't competent enough to pull it off on his own. If the SD agents had been caught? I honestly don't think it would have seriously undermined Hitler's cause, given the degree of support they were receiving from the press at that point. At most, it would have made a direct putsch more likely. I still think Hitler ends the day as Chancellor.

Hindenburg was very reluctant to put Hitler on as Chancellor; I don't really think Hindenburg cared for Hitler...I'll grant that. That said, if the Nazis can't get things done, why would Hindenburg keep Hitler on? The idea of this alternate history is that the Nazis fail at getting the Enabling Act passed, prove to be as inefficient as the previous Parliaments, and Hitler doesn't last.

The Enabling Act was a result of Hitler and the Nazis getting things done. No one else did that. If that gets taken away, what do the Nazis have on their record? Jack squat, that's what.
The Enabling Act was a result of Hitler getting what done? It was introduced 45 days after Hitler became Chancellor, having done nothing in that time except give a few speeches and plan for the Machtergreifung.

Nonetheless, if the Enabling Act didn't pass, some things to consider:
- it's entirely possible that Hitler would have remained in power anyway, because he didn't have the economic problems some of his predecessors did to deal with, and the skilled propaganda machine may well have meant he became more popular, popular enough to win through;
- had there been moves against him, the Nazis might well have executed a putsch - and been more successful. Himmler's archives show plans for just such a coup, and although it wasn't tried out (being unnecessary), it was along the same lines as the tactics they later employed in forcing the Anschluss. That worked. So Hitler may have clawed his way to dictatorship anyway;
- if he tried, but failed, then you essentially fold back into the Weimar mess, and I think then the possibility of reinstating the monarchy becomes more probable, but so the probability of major communist insurrection rises. That's, I suppose, where the alternative history comes in. I don't believe they could have simply upped the monarchy like that, though...and you'd still have millions of Nazis to deal with, no matter where Hitler is.
Ice Hockey Players
26-09-2006, 14:30
The Enabling Act was a result of Hitler getting what done? It was introduced 45 days after Hitler became Chancellor, having done nothing in that time except give a few speeches and plan for the Machtergreifung.

Getting the Enabling Act passed was a result of consolidating power. It took the power out of the hands of the bumbling legislature and moved it to the executive. That's what the difference was. Without it, the power is still in the hands of the legislature, and what did they do again? Not a whole lot.

Nonetheless, if the Enabling Act didn't pass, some things to consider:
- it's entirely possible that Hitler would have remained in power anyway, because he didn't have the economic problems some of his predecessors did to deal with, and the skilled propaganda machine may well have meant he became more popular, popular enough to win through;
- had there been moves against him, the Nazis might well have executed a putsch - and been more successful. Himmler's archives show plans for just such a coup, and although it wasn't tried out (being unnecessary), it was along the same lines as the tactics they later employed in forcing the Anschluss. That worked. So Hitler may have clawed his way to dictatorship anyway;
- if he tried, but failed, then you essentially fold back into the Weimar mess, and I think then the possibility of reinstating the monarchy becomes more probable, but so the probability of major communist insurrection rises. That's, I suppose, where the alternative history comes in. I don't believe they could have simply upped the monarchy like that, though...and you'd still have millions of Nazis to deal with, no matter where Hitler is.

That's why I had the monarchy getting overthrown. I doubt Crown Prince Wilhelm would have been able to inspire the people the way Hitler did, and he would have had Nazis, Communists, and monarchists to deal with. It was really more a matter of who won at that point. The Nazis won because Hitler was in power. If he's out of power, the Nazis have two options - try to combat it or throw their support behind the monarch. They can try to overthrow the government, and if they succeed, we're back where we were. If they fail, the monarchy is weakened from battle, the Nazis are considered a threat to national security, and the Soviets come in and plant revolution seeds. Translation: Germany turns red.

Hitler was also very careful not to get on Hindenburg's bad side, knowing he could be out on his ear very quickly. If the office of Chancellor wasn't his only ticket to power, it was certainly his best, and I would argue that, if Hindenburg had a good excuse to dismiss Hitler, he would have. He didn't, so Hitler stayed.
Cluichstan
26-09-2006, 14:37
If you're going to go into "alternate history," it helps to know real history a little better. Gruen was spot on.