Ice Hockey Players
25-09-2006, 21:15
Every once in a great while, we have a good alternate history thread. For those who enjoy speculation, it's a lot of fun. For those who flame those who like to speculate, go away. And for those who confuse this with revisionist history, please do a Wiki search on both.
Anywho, in another speculation thread I made just now (the widely popular "What if Bush doesn't quit?" thread...yes, I know the idea's a bit hard to believe as future history, but that's not the point here) I wondered aloud what would happen if no one burned down the Reichstag. Hitler seemed to get lucky in that the Reichstag got torched while Hindenburg had him as Chancellor. What if that doesn't happen? What if that Dutch Communist got arrested beforhand for stealing a pair of shoes from an old man or something? (I am also speculating that the Nazis didn't, in fact, indirectly cause the Reichstag burning and that it was just coincidence that Hitler was Chancellor at the time.)
OK, so no Reichstag fire. Hindenburg had dissolved Parliament per Hitler's urgings, and he needed a two-thirds majority to pass the Enabling Act. With no Reichstag fire, the fear of Communism is somewhat stemmed. Therefore, with elections, Hitler's advantage isn't good enough to get the Enabling Act passed. Having dismissed two Chancellors prior to Hitler, Hindenburg has no qualms about dismissing Hitler, and out he goes. (Maybe it doesn't happen like that, but the way I see it, no Enabling Act, no dictatorship.) So with Hindenburg sacking Hitler, he decides, in failing health, to try to mold Germany into what he had realy always hoped for - another monarchy. Crown Prince Wilhelm, son of Kaiser Wilhelm II, becomes Kaiser Wilhelm III. Wilhelm III, upon the death of Hindenburg, is made a hereditary monarch and head of state in Germany, although the Parliament still exists and Wilhelm still has to work with it.
With no office of the President as we know it anymore, Parliament tries to elect a Prime Minister to represent itself, but no majority can be attained. Meanwhile, Comintern, having not been shut out of Germany by a lone nut, is planting the seeds of revolution in Germany. The Germans look to the south and see Italy as nothing more than an annoying pest. Sure, Mussolini's in power, but Wilhelm warns them not to engage anyone, and it's something upon which the French and British are in full agreement. Another is that they don't trust the Soviets, but neither do the Italians, so as long as the Italians leave the Germans, French, and British alone, Wilhelm will be contented to try to deal with his own people. However, his own people are growing weary of an economic depression that seems to be lasting longer than it should be.
As it is, the Germans' patience runs out in 1939 while Italy's running amok in southern Europe and Japan's busy subjugating east Asia. Wilhelm's overthrown, exiled to somewhere, and Germany turns Communist. Following in their example, Austria does the same, and so does a good portion of eastern Europe. By this point, the British and French are panicked and tell the Russians to unhand Germany. They disavow any incitement of the German revolution, and when one of Italy's puppet states turns Communist, it incites a declaration of war from the British and French.
The Americans, who tended not to sympathize with the Communists, see Italy as an annoying pest and Japan as a legitimate threat. Thus, we're looking at war on two fronts against two different, unrelated opponents. That is, if the Americans and Japanese ever go to war, which happens, predictably, around...wait a minute. Japanese militarists were inspired in part by Germany's success. Germany's Communist in this timeline, so the attack on Pearl Harbor gets pushed back. Not by much, though, since the oil embargo had a lot to do with it. On the first of February 1942, the Japanese attack Pearl Harbor. As we all know, that seemed to piss off the Americans, and a stirring speech by President John Garner (Roosevelt is cautioned against a third term in this timeline, since there's no Nazi threat) awakens the sleeping giant that is the U.S.
Now, from our end, the British, French, Italians, and Spanish (no Franco here) are fighting what looks like a losing battle with the Russians. Meanwhile, the Americans are fighting a losing-at-first battle with the Japanese that turns into a winning one in 1942. The Allies are pushing for a declaration of war by the U.S. against the USSR, but no such luck. They are told that the U.S. will help out once the Japanese are defeated. That happens around early 1944 with a full-scale invasion of Tokyo. The Japanese Emperor surrenders, and the U.S. begins rebuilding Japan with the Emperor as a figurehead. Basically, they want to ensure that nothing like this happens again and that the Communists don't get their hands on east Asia.
Communism begins to take hold in a run-down China and Korea, but with no nuclear threat, the U.S. is happy to support people in the mold of Syngman Rhee and Chiang Kai-shek. Korea doesn't split in two, and east Asia becomes a bastion of capitalism. Meanwhile, the Soviets are fighting a tiring war of attrition with the Allies for years and years...until a weakened Italy switches to the Soviet side and executes Mussolini in 1946. The Allies accuse the U.S. of a "broken promise" and there's a lot of resentment from the Allies; even a Marshall Plan-esque aid backage complete with a new Lend-Lease only sort of placates the Allies.
What the Lend-Lease does, though, is it allows the war to continue. The Soviets are weary of war, and in 1948, calls for negotiation are made. Also, a new weapon, the atomic bomb, is under development in the U.S. The Soviets know of the weapon, but as part of the Lend-Lease, the Americans pass it off to the British to use on Stalingrad. Around 100,000 Russians die, and when Minsk is bombed next, the Soviets surrender. Joseph Stalin is deposed, and Communism is regarded as a defeated ideology. Granted, plenty of people are not ready to let it go, and what's left of the Soviet Union is far from stable, but the beginnings of rebuilding are underway.
The United Nations is formed in 1949, with permanent seats for the United States, Great Britain, France, Spain, and China, with one conspicuously missing for the Soviet Union. Many nations join, but others that were not involved in the war are suspicious and stay out. The next 25 years are seen as a time of peace, prosperity, and perhaps the end to major global conflict, but there's trouble brewing. Extremist Islam doesn't take form in some ways, but the Islamic world is bitter at the West for a number of other reasons. Israel doesn't really exist at this point, since there wasn't a Holocaust to spark it, but many Jews are migrating to Palestine and clamoring for a Jewish state. The Islamic world is also bitter about being excluded from much of the decision-making process in the world, and it feels that the only hope it has is to unite under one banner; Wahhabist groups see their brand of islam as the best and the only. Naturally, there is conflict between the Islamic world and the West, so the global supply of oil is somewhat threatened, and there is some fear that they will develop the underdeveloped hydrogen bombs.
OK, so maybe one lone nut at the Reichstag wasn't the major cause of the majority of the last half-century of conflict, and maybe the Muslim would would be more bitter at us in the absence of a Cold War, not less. However, again, this is speculation, and I had to make it interesting.
Anywho, in another speculation thread I made just now (the widely popular "What if Bush doesn't quit?" thread...yes, I know the idea's a bit hard to believe as future history, but that's not the point here) I wondered aloud what would happen if no one burned down the Reichstag. Hitler seemed to get lucky in that the Reichstag got torched while Hindenburg had him as Chancellor. What if that doesn't happen? What if that Dutch Communist got arrested beforhand for stealing a pair of shoes from an old man or something? (I am also speculating that the Nazis didn't, in fact, indirectly cause the Reichstag burning and that it was just coincidence that Hitler was Chancellor at the time.)
OK, so no Reichstag fire. Hindenburg had dissolved Parliament per Hitler's urgings, and he needed a two-thirds majority to pass the Enabling Act. With no Reichstag fire, the fear of Communism is somewhat stemmed. Therefore, with elections, Hitler's advantage isn't good enough to get the Enabling Act passed. Having dismissed two Chancellors prior to Hitler, Hindenburg has no qualms about dismissing Hitler, and out he goes. (Maybe it doesn't happen like that, but the way I see it, no Enabling Act, no dictatorship.) So with Hindenburg sacking Hitler, he decides, in failing health, to try to mold Germany into what he had realy always hoped for - another monarchy. Crown Prince Wilhelm, son of Kaiser Wilhelm II, becomes Kaiser Wilhelm III. Wilhelm III, upon the death of Hindenburg, is made a hereditary monarch and head of state in Germany, although the Parliament still exists and Wilhelm still has to work with it.
With no office of the President as we know it anymore, Parliament tries to elect a Prime Minister to represent itself, but no majority can be attained. Meanwhile, Comintern, having not been shut out of Germany by a lone nut, is planting the seeds of revolution in Germany. The Germans look to the south and see Italy as nothing more than an annoying pest. Sure, Mussolini's in power, but Wilhelm warns them not to engage anyone, and it's something upon which the French and British are in full agreement. Another is that they don't trust the Soviets, but neither do the Italians, so as long as the Italians leave the Germans, French, and British alone, Wilhelm will be contented to try to deal with his own people. However, his own people are growing weary of an economic depression that seems to be lasting longer than it should be.
As it is, the Germans' patience runs out in 1939 while Italy's running amok in southern Europe and Japan's busy subjugating east Asia. Wilhelm's overthrown, exiled to somewhere, and Germany turns Communist. Following in their example, Austria does the same, and so does a good portion of eastern Europe. By this point, the British and French are panicked and tell the Russians to unhand Germany. They disavow any incitement of the German revolution, and when one of Italy's puppet states turns Communist, it incites a declaration of war from the British and French.
The Americans, who tended not to sympathize with the Communists, see Italy as an annoying pest and Japan as a legitimate threat. Thus, we're looking at war on two fronts against two different, unrelated opponents. That is, if the Americans and Japanese ever go to war, which happens, predictably, around...wait a minute. Japanese militarists were inspired in part by Germany's success. Germany's Communist in this timeline, so the attack on Pearl Harbor gets pushed back. Not by much, though, since the oil embargo had a lot to do with it. On the first of February 1942, the Japanese attack Pearl Harbor. As we all know, that seemed to piss off the Americans, and a stirring speech by President John Garner (Roosevelt is cautioned against a third term in this timeline, since there's no Nazi threat) awakens the sleeping giant that is the U.S.
Now, from our end, the British, French, Italians, and Spanish (no Franco here) are fighting what looks like a losing battle with the Russians. Meanwhile, the Americans are fighting a losing-at-first battle with the Japanese that turns into a winning one in 1942. The Allies are pushing for a declaration of war by the U.S. against the USSR, but no such luck. They are told that the U.S. will help out once the Japanese are defeated. That happens around early 1944 with a full-scale invasion of Tokyo. The Japanese Emperor surrenders, and the U.S. begins rebuilding Japan with the Emperor as a figurehead. Basically, they want to ensure that nothing like this happens again and that the Communists don't get their hands on east Asia.
Communism begins to take hold in a run-down China and Korea, but with no nuclear threat, the U.S. is happy to support people in the mold of Syngman Rhee and Chiang Kai-shek. Korea doesn't split in two, and east Asia becomes a bastion of capitalism. Meanwhile, the Soviets are fighting a tiring war of attrition with the Allies for years and years...until a weakened Italy switches to the Soviet side and executes Mussolini in 1946. The Allies accuse the U.S. of a "broken promise" and there's a lot of resentment from the Allies; even a Marshall Plan-esque aid backage complete with a new Lend-Lease only sort of placates the Allies.
What the Lend-Lease does, though, is it allows the war to continue. The Soviets are weary of war, and in 1948, calls for negotiation are made. Also, a new weapon, the atomic bomb, is under development in the U.S. The Soviets know of the weapon, but as part of the Lend-Lease, the Americans pass it off to the British to use on Stalingrad. Around 100,000 Russians die, and when Minsk is bombed next, the Soviets surrender. Joseph Stalin is deposed, and Communism is regarded as a defeated ideology. Granted, plenty of people are not ready to let it go, and what's left of the Soviet Union is far from stable, but the beginnings of rebuilding are underway.
The United Nations is formed in 1949, with permanent seats for the United States, Great Britain, France, Spain, and China, with one conspicuously missing for the Soviet Union. Many nations join, but others that were not involved in the war are suspicious and stay out. The next 25 years are seen as a time of peace, prosperity, and perhaps the end to major global conflict, but there's trouble brewing. Extremist Islam doesn't take form in some ways, but the Islamic world is bitter at the West for a number of other reasons. Israel doesn't really exist at this point, since there wasn't a Holocaust to spark it, but many Jews are migrating to Palestine and clamoring for a Jewish state. The Islamic world is also bitter about being excluded from much of the decision-making process in the world, and it feels that the only hope it has is to unite under one banner; Wahhabist groups see their brand of islam as the best and the only. Naturally, there is conflict between the Islamic world and the West, so the global supply of oil is somewhat threatened, and there is some fear that they will develop the underdeveloped hydrogen bombs.
OK, so maybe one lone nut at the Reichstag wasn't the major cause of the majority of the last half-century of conflict, and maybe the Muslim would would be more bitter at us in the absence of a Cold War, not less. However, again, this is speculation, and I had to make it interesting.