NationStates Jolt Archive

Well, it's some oil. Better than finding none, I suppose. It does make you wonder though - how much more is there to find? Previously, I don't think that anyone thought of drilling so deep, but this was pretty impressive

http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/05/news/companies/chevron.reut/index.htm?cnn=yes

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Chevron Corp. said Tuesday it had successfully drilled for oil in the Gulf of Mexico's deep waters, in what could be one of the most significant finds for the domestic oil industry in a generation.

The successful well, known as Jack 2, reached a record total depth of 28,175 feet, coming in 7,000 feet of water, and more than 20,000 feet under the sea floor. Analysts said the find suggested the success of that drilling may mean more oil than previously believed is available under the Gulf of Mexico, a region that already provides a quarter of U.S. output.

One published report suggested the breakthrough could increase U.S. oil reserves by as much as 50 percent.

Clearly we must annex Mexico at once.

Clearly we must annex Mexico at once.

International waters.

International waters.

Ah. Well then, we need to rename it, just in case Mexico gets any ideas.

Looks like a reservoir deep in the gas zone, but sunk very recently in geological history, with insufficient time elapsed for the oil to undergo thermal cracking into gas.

Good luck finding much more of that. You may also disregard the "one published report" - news outlets always quote the nonsensical extreme estimates on both sides of the debate.

Ah. Well then, we need to rename it, just in case Mexico gets any ideas.

A little ignorance goes a long way, huh?

What we really need is to get the State of Florida to allow drilling for gas and oil of its coasts.

Looks like a reservoir deep in the gas zone, but sunk very recently in geological history, with insufficient time elapsed for the oil to undergo thermal cracking into gas.

Good luck finding much more of that. You may also disregard the "one published report" - news outlets always quote the nonsensical extreme estimates on both sides of the debate.

I always thought that published reports were intended to allow for an exaggerated estimate, which leads to a bigger loan based on estimated reserves.

By the time anyone figures out that it isn't that big, the money is already gone.

(Not that doubling or tripling US reserves these days would make a dent in the overall picture)

There's more than enough left to last for well over 100 years. It's likely that we'll find much, much more oil if we continue to drill to such depths.

Ah. Well then, we need to rename it, just in case Mexico gets any ideas.

Nah, no need, the US and Mexico have agreed very clearly as to who owns what half. I think they finished the last little bit 6 or 7 years ago.

A little ignorance goes a long way, huh?

What we really need is to get the State of Florida to allow drilling for gas and oil of its coasts.

You laugh now, but when the Mexican government decides that if it's in the Gulf of Mexico it should belong to Mexico...

Well, you'll probably still be laughing, but that's not the point.

I always thought that published reports were intended to allow for an exaggerated estimate, which leads to a bigger loan based on estimated reserves.

By the time anyone figures out that it isn't that big, the money is already gone.
That is another issue, yes. I got my wires crossed and was thinking of the output of thinktanks and analysts.

You laugh now, but when the Mexican government decides that if it's in the Gulf of Mexico it should belong to Mexico...

Well, you'll probably still be laughing, but that's not the point.

I'm sure that the US Navy will be able to resolve who owns what.

Begoner21;11641455']There's more than enough left to last for well over 100 years. It's likely that we'll find much, much more oil if we continue to drill to such depths.
Thermal cracking pwns your dreams.

I'm sure that the US Navy will be able to resolve who owns what.

Hence why you'll still be laughing.

Unless of course, you're one of those freedom hating sissies who believe the lies that the brave men and women of the US military are stretched to the breaking point.

Thermal cracking pwns your dreams.

At the depths they're talking about, isn't it hotter than the usual depths that oil is found at? Does thermal cracking progress faster at greater pressure? Inquiring minds want to know.

What we really need is to get the State of Florida to allow drilling for gas and oil of its coasts.

Aren't there about at least 3 hurricanes that hit Florida every year?

Those would have to be some pretty expensive (more expensive than usual, anyway) oil rigs.

At the depths they're talking about, isn't it hotter than the usual depths that oil is found at? Does thermal cracking progress faster at greater pressure? Inquiring minds want to know.
Yes, and yes.

The oil window is 7,500 - 15,000 feet, corresponding to 82 deg C and 145 deg C respectively.

A potential oil reservoir that never got pushed below 7,500 feet, is kerogen (oil shale). Extracting oil means heating and crushing the rock at silly energy expense to do the work of Nature ourselves.

An oil reservoir that got pushed below 15,000 is going to turn into gas, and maybe bleed out and dissipate, unless (geologically speaking) it happened very, very recently.

An oil reservoir between 7,500 - 15,000 feet is ideal, even better if it got pushed up, closer to the surface, after the heating and compression required took place. However, if the impermeable rock or salt cap breaks up, the oil leaks and dissipates, and you end up with tar. Cue more heating at massive expense.

So you can see that this is a complete fluke. Don't count on it to save you.

Oh, and for comparison purposes, the temperature could be as hot as 200 deg C down there.

A little ignorance goes a long way, huh?

What we really need is to get the State of Florida to allow drilling for gas and oil of its coasts.

You don't live here do you? I know I wouldn't want to have oil rigs off of the beach I go to. It's bad enough getting sick from the red tide. I'd really appreciate not having to deal with oil spills every time a storm comes through. Plus, we make enough money off of property taxes as it is. Unlike some states, we're actually in the positive for a short time.

A 10 billion barrel find is pretty encouraging, especially given that finds of its scale are pretty rare and have been since the 1980's. However, I think a lot of this is due to the increases in investment that we've seen over the past 6 years; I wouldn't be surprised if more discoveries are made as funding for exploration surges. Even so, it's only about 1/3 of annual world consumption. Until we start finding enough oil to replace it (unlikely at best), we're still drawing down the stuff we already have.

Oil is definitely entering a bear market as supply rises and demand slows, and I think prices will drift down for a while especially given the huge increase in Russian exports, the number of projects slated to come online in 2006/2007, the mild hurricane season and the slowing US economy. Also, China is starting to encourage the removal of price caps, domestic production, and alternatives so that will likely slow demand growth further. Oil will probably be around $55-60 by year's end and will probably trade flat in 2007.

Personally I think we need to look at technology, Hydro power, Hybrid Cars, Solar Power, Wind Power, etc. This is what the future energy is. Also, we need to look at Bio-Fuels, such as grains, trash etc. Yes you can turn ordinary trash into fuel that your car can run on. This is what we need to work on instead of just drilling for more oil.

Personally I think we need to look at technology, Hydro power, Hybrid Cars, Solar Power, Wind Power, etc. This is what the future energy is. Also, we need to look at Bio-Fuels, such as grains, trash etc. Yes you can turn ordinary trash into fuel that your car can run on. This is what we need to work on instead of just drilling for more oil.

That's correct. Personally, I feel that oil will be obsolete for many functions within the next decade and will be in permanent decline by the 2030's. I feel that oil demand will peak before oil supply simply because the economics of alternatives are getting better than oil not just at $70 or $50 but at almost any price.

What's the big deal anyway, we know oil will run out eventually; we already have alternatives (i.e. hydrogen fuel cells, electric cars), there's just no demand for them while we have enough oil. There may be some difficulty converting our oil-based economy to a hydrogen-based economy, but we'll live. As prices rise, alternative energy will gradually become a more expedient option.

I really don’t understand why people freak out about ‘peak oil’ and all the rest. Approximately every 27 years there is a big scare that says oil is about to run out and the economy is going to crash so badly we will be reduced to the Stone Age. Of course, the last 200 years have shown us that this is not the case.

When fuel becomes very expensive, three things happen:
1) money is spent on finding new ways to get that fuel – either finding new deposits or extracting more from old deposits.
2) people learn to conserve and develop more energy efficient technologies
3) development of alternative fuels so reliance upon that fuel type falls.

What we are seeing is that very process which has worked for every other commodity working for oil. More creative ways of getting oil – from farther out in deeper waters, drilling deeper, exploiting different sources such as shale or tar – and even less reliance upon oil as fuel efficiency has once again become popular. Additionally we are developing sources of energy to replace the need for oil as a fuel altogether.

There is nothing that cannot be done without oil – we use oil because it is cheaper and easier right now. As that changes, so will our sourcing of materials.

I really don’t understand why people freak out about ‘peak oil’ and all the rest. Approximately every 27 years there is a big scare that says oil is about to run out and the economy is going to crash so badly we will be reduced to the Stone Age. Of course, the last 200 years have shown us that this is not the case.

When fuel becomes very expensive, three things happen:
1) money is spent on finding new ways to get that fuel – either finding new deposits or extracting more from old deposits.
2) people learn to conserve and develop more energy efficient technologies
3) development of alternative fuels so reliance upon that fuel type falls.

What we are seeing is that very process which has worked for every other commodity working for oil. More creative ways of getting oil – from farther out in deeper waters, drilling deeper, exploiting different sources such as shale or tar – and even less reliance upon oil as fuel efficiency has once again become popular. Additionally we are developing sources of energy to replace the need for oil as a fuel altogether.

There is nothing that cannot be done without oil – we use oil because it is cheaper and easier right now. As that changes, so will our sourcing of materials.

Oh yeah? How about drilling oil, smart guy?

Its good news for the US either way.

How good? I guess we'll see.

Its good news for the US either way.

How good? I guess we'll see.

Well. More is good, and some is good. And some is better than nothing.

Although there may be some who say we should curl up and die right now.

Well. More is good, and some is good. And some is better than nothing.

Although there may be some who say we should curl up and die right now.

More is good, all is better.

I really don’t understand why people freak out about ‘peak oil’ and all the rest. Approximately every 27 years there is a big scare that says oil is about to run out and the economy is going to crash so badly we will be reduced to the Stone Age. Of course, the last 200 years have shown us that this is not the case.

That's totally correct. We have to remember that a lot of the people who say Peak Oil is "the end of the world as we know it" also said that about Y2K, the predictions of the Club of Rome, the financial crash of the late 80's and a thousand other apocalypses that never came to past. This apocalyptic ideology has no basis in reality but rather a pseudo-religious or survivalist desire to see a civilization they are hostile to decline and fall. It won't happen, and cannot happen.

That doesn't mean it will necessarily be pretty; much like the 1970's energy crises brought stagflation and weak economic growth along with the diversification and conservation of energy, so to will the peak bring similar economic hardship in its early stages. Some of it will be mitigated by the lower energy intensity of our economy but some of it will affect us economically as prices climb; even so, it's not going to be a disaster. There aren't going to be gas lines or chaos, just high prices, a lukewarm economy and people being forced to buy more efficient vehicles , insulation, and appliances; we're not going to shoot each other at the gas station but we are probably going to have to dump the SUV for a subcompact or hybrid. Conservation, improved efficiency, and technology are the three tools we have to deal with oil, and all of them work very well.

We only use oil because it is the most economically advantageous source of energy. Once it loses that advantage, it will be replaced; until then, we will continue to find more oil and invest in ways to extract it until it finally reaches that tipping point and permanently enters obsolescence. A lot of the technology needed to replace oil is already being built, is becoming economically viable, or is in various stages of development. The general consensus for a peak is 2020-2030, so that will give us at least 15 more years of technological development to back us up. Peak oil will be adapted to; it'll have some rough stages and the early period will be tough, but it will be far from apocalypse or even the hardship of the Great Depression.

Oh yeah? How about drilling oil, smart guy?

EC mentioned that as one of the three points. Also, oil production can be powered using alternatives; windmills on drilling platforms, for example or nuclear/geothermal facilities being used to heat kerogen to produce oil from sands or shale. The vehicles can run on alternative fuels or hybrids, and engine oil can be produced synthetically.

Gasoline and diesel are only used as fuels because they are dirt cheap. $0.12 worth of gasoline moves over 2,000 pounds one mile...that's an incredible amount of power for such a low cost.

Well. More is good, and some is good. And some is better than nothing.

Although there may be some who say we should curl up and die right now.

At the very least, Chevron will pay for its investment in this hole they've been digging for years. I'm optimistic we'll do better that that, though.

The ones who say we curl up and die right now-likely will, in their apartments, in mommy & daddy's basement.

The ones who say we curl up and die right now-likely will, in their apartments, in mommy & daddy's basement.

Well, 6 years ago there were people predicting that we'd be back in the Stone Age by now because of Y2K...I'm still here, and technology appears to be working just fine. I'm still waiting for the blackouts, breadlines, and civil war from the Olduvai theory and apparently we should be extinct by now if the Club of Rome was right...

According to them, we are all currently dead and the Earth is out of resources.

Black Gold, Texas Tea.

What we really need is to get the State of Florida to allow drilling for gas and oil of its coasts.

Wont happen..this is Fla Rep Robert Wexler on the matter. The REAL question is how do you feel on the issue of using Carrabeu meat for your SUV? Or bones?http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Wn9fmZtjBQ

Black Gold, Texas Tea.

Well, the next thing you know old Jed's a millionaire/the townsfolk said "Jed move away from here"/ they said California is the place you outta be/so they loaded up the truck and moved to Beverly...Hills that is, swimming pools, movie stars...

How do I know that...I don't know, and I don't want to know.

A little ignorance goes a long way, huh?

What we really need is to get the State of Florida to allow drilling for gas and oil of its coasts.
So we can destroy our long term economy for some short term benefit to a problem that we need to fix in other ways anyway? No thanks. We need to get off fossil fuels sooner rather than later, and I'd rather not fuck up our tourist industry thanks to oil spills and ugly-ass rigs of the coast for oil and gas we have to get off of anyway.

So we can destroy our long term economy for some short term benefit to a problem that we need to fix in other ways anyway? No thanks. We need to get off fossil fuels sooner rather than later, and I'd rather not fuck up our tourist industry thanks to oil spills and ugly-ass rigs of the coast for oil and gas we have to get off of anyway.

It's also important to note that the oil and gas reserves there are pretty much 100% speculative; they have no idea exactly how much is out there or if it is even viable for production. We might end up exposing these coastal areas to pollution for years only to find out that there is only a few hundred million barrels of oil and a trillion cubic feet of gas.

It's better to just import the oil we need and then let market forces/government push us away from fossil fuels. As long as Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Venezuela or anyone else is willing to supply it to us at market prices, we should buy it. Oil fuels our economic growth, and if it's economical to use it we should use it regardless of where it comes from.

Ironically, our dependence on foreign oil is a great deal for the US...

It's also important to note that the oil and gas reserves there are pretty much 100% speculative; they have no idea exactly how much is out there or if it is even viable for production. We might end up exposing these coastal areas to pollution for years only to find out that there is only a few hundred million barrels of oil and a trillion cubic feet of gas.

It's better to just import the oil we need and then let market forces/government push us away from fossil fuels. As long as Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Venezuela or anyone else is willing to supply it to us at market prices, we should buy it. Oil fuels our economic growth, and if it's economical to use it we should use it regardless of where it comes from.

Ironically, our dependence on foreign oil is a great deal for the US...
For me, regardless of whether it's cheap or expensive, or whether we produce it or it comes from friends is immaterial. We've got to get off the fossil fuels before we make the planet unfit for human consmption and turn over the keys to the next civilization to the roaches. Fossil fuels, in the medium term, will likely kill us or at least do major damage to us as a species, and we have to get off of them.

For me, regardless of whether it's cheap or expensive, or whether we produce it or it comes from friends is immaterial. We've got to get off the fossil fuels before we make the planet unfit for human consmption and turn over the keys to the next civilization to the roaches. Fossil fuels, in the medium term, will likely kill us or at least do major damage to us as a species, and we have to get off of them.

That's correct. The planet can't accomodate much more consumption of fossil fuels unless we really start to tackle the problems of CO2 emissions, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides or oil spills. Carbon sequestration is a possible solution but there are still significant barriers to large-scale uses of the technology.

However, there are some really promising technologies. Plants for cellulosic ethanol may be planted in brownfields to clean up the areas, and giant hybrid tree farms are being proposed for producing the fuel. Biofuels from algae are also a huge industry and can even be placed at power plants to take advantage of the heat and CO2. Even better, these plants also absorb CO2 and help to mitigate their future emissions before they are even produced. Others, like much-aligned hydrogen produced from hydrolysis, may become viable in the next decade. Wind power, solar power, geothermal, wave power, and a dozen other sources are being developed and are cost competitive with fossil fuels.

Oil is almost obsolete...it simply isn't needed like it was in the past. Even compared to the 1980's or 1990's, the necessity of oil to our economy has diminished considerably because of technological progress. Give it another decade or two, and it's going to be totally surpassed by alternatives...the sheer amount of progress in 2006 alone in alternative energy, energy efficiency, and conservation technologies is staggering. There's real progress being made, and it's palpable. In fact, when I went to Barnes and Noble over the weekend I saw three Priuses in the parking lot of about 30-40 cars and more on the roads...that's huge market penetration for a technology only a few years old.

oil

Clearly we must annex Mexico at once.

Yes I have been saying this for a very long time. Would solve our issue with our southren border. Mexicans know how to take care of there southren border already. Lots and lots of oil to be had. Would solve our domestic shortfall by alot. Need cheap labor? Well the nearly 80 million new Americans could plug a few gaps. Also America could clean up Mexico and curtail it's rampant corruption. I would also set up DMV all over Mexico to properly teach them how to drive. I don't see any downsides to this. Both parties would be satisfied. I mean a military conflict, cheap labor, a rebuilding program, new social programs for all those poor. I think all parties would be happy.

Clearly we must annex Mexico at once.

That'd solve the immigration issues.

Yes I have been saying this for a very long time. Would solve our issue with our southren border.

Calderón has been harboring chemical weapons. Just go to any taco stand on Mexico City and you'll find them. Slam dunk. Open and close casus belly (not a typo :) )

Begoner21;11641455']There's more than enough left to last for well over 100 years. It's likely that we'll find much, much more oil if we continue to drill to such depths.:p People who have no idea what they are talking about but still feel the need to interject are so cute!

Is that the same region in which oil platforms have to be shut down on a regular basis, and in the future even more so, because there are those little nasty things called hurricanes in the region? Like the one because of which the whole coastal refineries either shut down or were damaged or destroyed?

First thought upon reading the thread title?
Let me guess, Gulf of Mexico? And bingo, of course...

I read years ago that there was a huge amount of oil in the Gulf of Mexico.
It's been kinown about for a long time
Only reason why it's never been pumped previous has been the costs of extraction.
The article I read said that as soon as oil got expensive enough the big companies would be there.
Guess that time has come.

The successful well, known as Jack 2, reached a record total depth of 28,175 feet, coming in 7,000 feet of water, and more than 20,000 feet under the sea floor.
Not wanting to sound too pedantic here, but is that bolded bit really necessary?
Do journalists consider us so dumb now that we can't work out for ourselves that if they've drilled 28 000 feet, 7000 of which is sea, then obviously the rest must be under the sea floor?