NationStates Jolt Archive

Simple question folks, what do you think?

I reckon that sentient alien life WILL exist, one day in the distant future, but at the moment we, the human race, are the first to have evolved into sentience.

After our planet turns into a dusty rock floating in the coldest recesses of space, new, alien life forms will have become self-aware in another corner of the Universe, but I think (being a proud Human Being as I am) that we were the first.

Thoughts? Comments?

Yes I believe that sentient extraterrestrial life exists and I believe they are very intelligent because they are smart enough to avoid us. :)

Considering the vastness of the universe, it would rather surprise me if there was no other sentient life somewhere. Some probably more developed than us, others less. But what difference would that make?

Simple question folks, what do you think?

I reckon that sentient alien life WILL exist, one day in the distant future, but at the moment we, the human race, are the first to have evolved into sentience.

After our planet turns into a dusty rock floating in the coldest recesses of space, new, alien life forms will have become self-aware in another corner of the Universe, but I think (being a proud Human Being as I am) that we were the first.

Thoughts? Comments?

Why would we be the first? Our planet dead-ended for millions of years with dinosaurs. Another planet could have fallen straightaway into a niche that would support true sentiency.

Not only might we not be the first.... we might be way down on the list, behind tens of millions of sentient races, that may have evolved, and maybe disappeared again, hundreds of millions of years ago.

Then again - I'm not entirely sure we qualify as collectively 'sentient' yet, anyway.

Backwoodssquatches Crappy Alien Life Theory:

BACKWOODSSQUATCHES THEORY ON THE PROBABILITY OF TERRESTRIAL VISITATION.

The basis of this theory will discuss the probability of visitation by extraterrestrial beings.
For the purposes of being objective we will be using the number 000.1%

The estimated number of stars in our galaxy is approximately 250,000,000,000. Two hundred and fifty billion stars.
Some of the following conjecture is purposely innacurate, and used as an exagerated low number.

Out of the number of stars in the Milky Way, lets assume that the number of stars capable of even having planets orbiting it,
is 000.1 percent.
This leaves us with 250, 000,000 stars.

Out of that two hundred and fifty million stars,lets assume that the number of stars with planetary systems that have planets
with the capability to sustain life as we know it, is 000.1 %
That gives us 250,000 solar systems with such planets.

Now, lets assume that the number of those solar systems that actually contain life, is 0.001%
That gives us 25,000 solar systems with life, as we know it.

Now lets go further and say that out of that number, the number of solar systems with life, have the capabilty to utilize inter-stellar travel,
is 0.001 percent.
This gives us 2,500 solar systems, with civilizations, advanced enough to traverse light-years.

Now, lets go even further, and say that the number of those systems, that have such capability, have also visited the Earth,
is 000.1%

The answer is 2.5

Numerically possible, if a bit unlikely.


Conclusion: it is entirely likely, and numerically evident that life does indeed exist beyond earth.
In fact, by this weak theory alone, it is conceivable that the universe is teeming with intelligent life.
However, the possibility of Terrestrial visitation while still numerically possible, is a bit unlikely.

Why would we be the first? Our planet dead-ended for millions of years with dinosaurs. Another planet could have fallen straightaway into a niche that would support true sentiency.

Not only might we not be the first.... we might be way down on the list, behind tens of millions of sentient races, that may have evolved, and maybe disappeared again, hundreds of millions of years ago.

Then again - I'm not entirely sure we qualify as collectively 'sentient' yet, anyway.

Sounds about right...

Counterproof o our sentience: GWB! :eek:

just kidding

In all the vastness that is the universe, I think there's a fair chance that intelligent life exists somewhere.

Edit: But I accidentally clicked "no" on the poll. Intelligent life isn't existing here! :)

Why would we be the first? Our planet dead-ended for millions of years with dinosaurs. Another planet could have fallen straightaway into a niche that would support true sentiency.

Not only might we not be the first.... we might be way down on the list, behind tens of millions of sentient races, that may have evolved, and maybe disappeared again, hundreds of millions of years ago.

Then again - I'm not entirely sure we qualify as collectively 'sentient' yet, anyway.

mmm yeah I suppose, but there's an equal chance that all planets that evolved intelligent life suffered that dead-end in one form or another, we may just have been the lucky ones to cop a meteor strike relatively early on!

We really don't know enough about the universe, nor life, to say.
Life might only form so sporadically that no two intelligent forms of life ever exist in the universe at the same time. On the other hand it might form so frequently the universe's swarming with it. There's really no way to tell untill we get out there and look, and the lack of faster than light travel (or short cuts) makes that hard to do.
Of course, you never know, there might be intelligent life under the ice in the oceans of Europa. Or elsewhere in our own solar system.

I believe they are very intelligent because they are smart enough to avoid us. :)

Either that or they're too stupid to make it into space. I think anyone who can develop interstellar travel would want nothing to do with humans.

Science puts the universe at an age of about 13.7 billion years. Our sun is considered a 3rd generation star, it's about 4.66 billion years old. The Earth is about 4.5 billion years old. Life is thought to have started on Earth at about .5 to 2 billion years of age. Modern humans (homosapian) have been around for about the last 200,000 years. Total human history is something in the neighbor hood of 2 million years.

Age of the universe = 13.7 billion
Age of mankind = .002 billion

The universe is approximately 6850 times older than mankind, and 68500 times older than modern man. I'd say it's pretty certain than intelligent life has already come and gone in many places of the universe.

*edit

I'll also add that there are a large number of stars in the galaxy. NASA estimates a number of 10*21 stars... thats: 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

These people claim it's 7*22 stars. But that's only what's visible to us.
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/star_count_030722.html

BackwoodsSquatches, you're also a fan of Carl Sagan and Cosmos?

Yes, I think it's quite possible. However, considering the distances invloved, it's highly unlikely we'll ever be meeting unless there is some REALLY funky bending of the laws of space/time as we know them.

And yes, proof is that we haven't been visited yet. That shows they are indeed really intelligent.

mmm yeah I suppose, but there's an equal chance that all planets that evolved intelligent life suffered that dead-end in one form or another, we may just have been the lucky ones to cop a meteor strike relatively early on!

No - there are no 'equal chances' in this. There are hundreds of millions of years of hundreds of millions of worlds. It's not as simple as a coin toss. The thing is - the dice have already been rolled... we just don't know what the winning numbers were.

Maybe other worlds had evolutionary dead-ends... or maybe we are 'weird' in that respect. Maybe most worlds that 'get' life, run straight along to sentiency in the first few millions of years... and it is some 'flaw' in our world that allowed for dead-ends - like, maybe, ours is just a fraction too warm... just enough to keep allowing megafauna of various kinds.

And - what makes you think our 'extinction level event' was 'early'? Even if other worlds DID dead-end, it might have been a sidetrack of a few thousands of years, rather than millions.

Given the huge timescales, it is almost inevitable that we are statistically 'average'.

If the universe is infinite as predicted, then there is definitely alien life.

I am completely of the opinion that life, sentient or otherwise DOES exist on worlds other than our own. From simple bacteria to lifeforms beyond our comprehension, there are likely to be worlds in our galaxy and others that are teeming with life.

After all, if it worked here, why not anywhere else? :)

...Of course, you never know, there might be intelligent life under the ice in the oceans of Europa. Or elsewhere in our own solar system.


I agree with that. If there is life on another world in our solar system, then the icy ocean moon of Europa would certainly be a likely candidate. Of course it could just be a huge lump of ice but hey, you never know!

The universe is approximately 6850 times older than mankind, and 68500 times older than modern man. I'd say it's pretty certain than intelligent life has already come and gone in many places of the universe.We know one example of life (the earthly kind). That's not a good basis to start estimating probabilities. After all the estimate for variation on a sample of 1 is infinite. We might have struck it lucky with a chance of 1 in a duodecillion per year of intelligent life emerging.

We know one example of life (the earthly kind). That's not a good basis to start estimating probabilities. After all the estimate for variation on a sample of 1 is infinite. We might have struck it lucky with a chance of 1 in a duodecillion per year of intelligent life emerging.

or it could have been 1 in 1.

Simple question folks, what do you think?

I reckon that sentient alien life WILL exist, one day in the distant future, but at the moment we, the human race, are the first to have evolved into sentience.

After our planet turns into a dusty rock floating in the coldest recesses of space, new, alien life forms will have become self-aware in another corner of the Universe, but I think (being a proud Human Being as I am) that we were the first.

Thoughts? Comments?

I'm not altogether sure about the question. "Alien"? It betrays a very terra-centric, anthropocentric point of view. If there's anybody out there, in their eyes maybe we're the "aliens".

I prefer to think they're wiser and more intelligent (not always the same thing) and they would just regard us as "heterooöns" -- "other life". And I agree that their intelligence is indicated by their studious refusal to have anything to do with us.

If the universe is infinite as predicted, then there is definitely alien life.The universe isn't predicted to be infinite. In fact, we can safely say it's a sphere some 14-15 billion light years across, outside of which nothing exists, in fact there is for all practical purposes no outside for the nothing to exist in.

Science puts the universe at an age of about 13.7 billion years. Our sun is considered a 3rd generation star, it's about 4.66 billion years old. The Earth is about 4.5 billion years old. Life is thought to have started on Earth at about .5 to 2 billion years of age. Modern humans (homosapian) have been around for about the last 200,000 years. Total human history is something in the neighbor hood of 2 million years.

Age of the universe = 13.7 billion
Age of mankind = .002 billion

The universe is approximately 6850 times older than mankind, and 68500 times older than modern man. I'd say it's pretty certain than intelligent life has already come and gone in many places of the universe.

*edit

I'll also add that there are a large number of stars in the galaxy. NASA estimates a number of 10*21 stars... thats: 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

These people claim it's 7*22 stars. But that's only what's visible to us.
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/star_count_030722.html

BackwoodsSquatches, you're also a fan of Carl Sagan and Cosmos?

Well, that just shot my theory to Hell, thanks!

Seriously though, I'd always toyed with the idea of us being the first...meh, I'll write a story about it.

Anyway, if that's the case then there simply has to be sentient life in the Universe, it's extremely improbable that we are alone. The vastness of space however impedes our search, not to mention lack of sufficiently advanced technology and public enthusiasm.

or it could have been 1 in 1.I'd expect a few more intelligent life form around in our solar system if that were the case. Although, I suppose they might have died out in the mean time, because 1 in 1 still isnt' actually that many.
Heck, for all we know, some intelligent dinosaurs had a mass exodus to alpha centauri when they saw the meteor coming.

I'd expect a few more intelligent life form around in our solar system if that were the case. Although, I suppose they might have died out in the mean time, because 1 in 1 still isnt' actually that many.
Heck, for all we know, some intelligent dinosaurs had a mass exodus to alpha centauri when they saw the meteor coming.

Indeed.

Too many variables.

However, as my poorly written theory states, its numerically silly to assume we are alone.

Jobbinooner:

Yes, but not a rabid fan.

More of an "Sagan? Oh yah, hes cool." kinda thing.

I'd expect a few more intelligent life form around in our solar system if that were the case. Although, I suppose they might have died out in the mean time, because 1 in 1 still isnt' actually that many.
Heck, for all we know, some intelligent dinosaurs had a mass exodus to alpha centauri when they saw the meteor coming.

So far, we have not found places in our solar system that would have conditions suitable for life as we know it. We haven't looked that hard either. However, we probably won't find much more than bacteria locally - possibly some kind of plant life. I think if there were any obvious lifeforms in our system we would have found them. But then, as I stated, we haven't looked that hard either.

On the universe, given the abundance of "life stuff" (carbon and water) in the galaxies as well as stars, not to mention the amount time that has already passed, I think it would be unlikely for life NOT to emerge elsewhere in the cosmos.

Of course there is! Do you know how many stars there are in this universe?!?! Too many to count! Then you have all the planets in those solar systems!! Even more!! There will be at LEAST one more planet with sentient life on it.

It may be happening here and now.http://www.popsci.com/popsci/science/2c21c0f98d07b010vgnvcm1000004eecbccdrcrd.html

It may be happening here and now.http://www.popsci.com/popsci/science/2c21c0f98d07b010vgnvcm1000004eecbccdrcrd.html

Nah, that's just some aliens playing pranks with their lunch.

"Oooh, drop another shower on the white bit, Fred!"

This article was in June. Anyone happen to know if the DNA or lack thereof tests are back yet?

More of an "Sagan? Oh yah, hes cool." kinda thing.

I was looking at the numbers... and thinking of something I think Sagan said, but I can't source.

A comment that basically boiled down to:

Given the incredible chain of events that are required, just to put life on THIS planet, and

given the incredible abundance of possible worlds,

either we are alone, or we are not alone... and either way, the odds are infinitesimal.

I was looking at the numbers... and thinking of something I think Sagan said, but I can't source.

A comment that basically boiled down to:

Given the incredible chain of events that are required, just to put life on THIS planet, and

given the incredible abundance of possible worlds,

either we are alone, or we are not alone... and either way, the odds are infinitesimal.


I tend to think, its not infinitesimal, rather than inevitable.

Going to happen, or is happening, or has already happened...

This article was in June. Anyone happen to know if the DNA or lack thereof tests are back yet?

Better yet, anyone know if there's been a rash outbreak of cannibalism in India since the time those things started falling?

I tend to think, its not infinitesimal, rather than inevitable.

Going to happen, or is happening, or has already happened...

I think he was just saying... looking at the 'odds' doesn't give you any answers for what 'is'.

I'm inclined to agree with you... space is big. Hugely, mind numbingly big. You might think wlking to the shops is a long way, but it's nothing compared to space... (etc... end theft).

In all that bigness, it seems unlikely there are NO circumstances that could create SOME form of intelligent life.

(It annoys me that some people always insist that the exact SAME requirements exist... like oxygen-breathing-carbon-based is the only possible design.)

I think he was just saying... looking at the 'odds' doesn't give you any answers for what 'is.

Oh agreed.

Educated speculation is till speculation...


I'm inclined to agree with you... space is big. Hugely, mind numbingly big. You might think wlking to the shops is a long way, but it's nothing compared to space... (etc... end theft).

In all that bigness, it seems unlikely there are NO circumstances that could create SOME form of intelligent life.

(It annoys me that some people always insist that the exact SAME requirements exist... like oxygen-breathing-carbon-based is the only possible design.)


Indeed.

I also think that contact is inevitable at some point.
Maybe not today, or tomorrow...but it will, or is, or has happened.

You know, alien life could very well exist, in our deepest oceans.

I was just channel surfing a few moments ago, as you do, and I came across this Documentary called 'Naked Science'. It was doing a piece on our oceans, and what might be down there, and it also stated that only 2 people have ever been to the oceans depths, compared with at least 200 who have been in space...

Granted, space is quite larger then the depths of our oceans, but nonetheless, we have about 9 miles of water depth that remains completely unexplored and untouched. Who knows, perhaps it's best we keep it that way, given our history of royally screwing up anything to do with nature.

I'd expect a few more intelligent life form around in our solar system if that were the case. Although, I suppose they might have died out in the mean time, because 1 in 1 still isnt' actually that many.
Heck, for all we know, some intelligent dinosaurs had a mass exodus to alpha centauri when they saw the meteor coming.


...or maybe they had time travel and foresaw us coming? :p

...or maybe they had time travel and foresaw us coming? :p

Maybe they never actually left. Maybe they just placed themselves in cryogenic sleep for millions of years, hoping to get some intelligent conversation when they woke up!

Maybe they kidnapped Oscar Wilde, and he's not actually dead!

Or... whatever.

Backwoodssquatches Crappy Alien Life Theory:

BACKWOODSSQUATCHES THEORY ON THE PROBABILITY OF TERRESTRIAL VISITATION.

The basis of this theory will discuss the probability of visitation by extraterrestrial beings.
For the purposes of being objective we will be using the number 000.1%

The estimated number of stars in our galaxy is approximately 250,000,000,000. Two hundred and fifty billion stars.
Some of the following conjecture is purposely innacurate, and used as an exagerated low number.

Out of the number of stars in the Milky Way, lets assume that the number of stars capable of even having planets orbiting it,
is 000.1 percent.
This leaves us with 250, 000,000 stars.

Out of that two hundred and fifty million stars,lets assume that the number of stars with planetary systems that have planets
with the capability to sustain life as we know it, is 000.1 %
That gives us 250,000 solar systems with such planets.

Now, lets assume that the number of those solar systems that actually contain life, is 0.001%
That gives us 25,000 solar systems with life, as we know it.

Now lets go further and say that out of that number, the number of solar systems with life, have the capabilty to utilize inter-stellar travel,
is 0.001 percent.
This gives us 2,500 solar systems, with civilizations, advanced enough to traverse light-years.

Now, lets go even further, and say that the number of those systems, that have such capability, have also visited the Earth,
is 000.1%

The answer is 2.5

Numerically possible, if a bit unlikely.


Conclusion: it is entirely likely, and numerically evident that life does indeed exist beyond earth.
In fact, by this weak theory alone, it is conceivable that the universe is teeming with intelligent life.
However, the possibility of Terrestrial visitation while still numerically possible, is a bit unlikely.

So...one alien race wanted to come to Earth, but got stuck in the tourist traps on Mars? ;)

Simple question folks, what do you think?

I reckon that sentient alien life WILL exist, one day in the distant future, but at the moment we, the human race, are the first to have evolved into sentience.

After our planet turns into a dusty rock floating in the coldest recesses of space, new, alien life forms will have become self-aware in another corner of the Universe, but I think (being a proud Human Being as I am) that we were the first.

Thoughts? Comments?

You dirty bigoted speciesIST. You shouldnt be proud with your species, all life forms are same!!! It's just our molecules are a little bit different. :mp5:









As for the real question, yeah, there should be sentient aliens out there since Universe is tooooooo big for it to be barren, except for humans...

Backwoodssquatches Crappy Alien Life Theory:

BACKWOODSSQUATCHES THEORY ON THE PROBABILITY OF TERRESTRIAL VISITATION.

The basis of this theory will discuss the probability of visitation by extraterrestrial beings.
For the purposes of being objective we will be using the number 000.1%

The estimated number of stars in our galaxy is approximately 250,000,000,000. Two hundred and fifty billion stars.
Some of the following conjecture is purposely innacurate, and used as an exagerated low number.

Out of the number of stars in the Milky Way, lets assume that the number of stars capable of even having planets orbiting it,
is 000.1 percent.
This leaves us with 250, 000,000 stars.

Out of that two hundred and fifty million stars,lets assume that the number of stars with planetary systems that have planets
with the capability to sustain life as we know it, is 000.1 %
That gives us 250,000 solar systems with such planets.

Now, lets assume that the number of those solar systems that actually contain life, is 0.001%
That gives us 25,000 solar systems with life, as we know it.

Now lets go further and say that out of that number, the number of solar systems with life, have the capabilty to utilize inter-stellar travel,
is 0.001 percent.
This gives us 2,500 solar systems, with civilizations, advanced enough to traverse light-years.

Now, lets go even further, and say that the number of those systems, that have such capability, have also visited the Earth,
is 000.1%

The answer is 2.5

Numerically possible, if a bit unlikely.


Conclusion: it is entirely likely, and numerically evident that life does indeed exist beyond earth.
In fact, by this weak theory alone, it is conceivable that the universe is teeming with intelligent life.
However, the possibility of Terrestrial visitation while still numerically possible, is a bit unlikely.


Note that this calculation is just for our galaxy. When we think of the universe, there are trillion of galaxies, so by this logic:

Since 2.5 is the numerical possibility of aliens per universe visiting us:

2.5 * trillions = 2.5 trillions

Hence, the numerical possibility of aliens from anywhere in the universe visiting us is extremely likely, by this logic...

Do you think this planet is just a one off, seriously?

There are humans, so if it could happen here it could also happen anywhere. The universe is too big to be empty...

considering the age of the universe + the amount of stars + etc... means there is probably intelligent life out there.

But what is the definition of sentience?
If there are sentient races would they be in the least bit interested in "higher" technologies or space flight?

I'd recommend books by Alaistar Reynolds (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alastair_Reynolds)for a fun read.

Alastair Reynolds

The Big Hello!
Welcome aboard! If you are in receipt of this message (and if you've succeeded in understanding it, of course) then you've already passed the hardest test! You've attained a basic competence in physics and engineering, coupled with enough of an understanding of the universe you live in, to intercept and decode signals from the Galactic Information Network!

Congratulations! This is already more than most cultures achieve, so you're already well ahead of the pack! Give yourselves a pat on...whatever it is you guys pat yourselves on!

The next step, should you choose to take it, is to participate in the Galactic Information Network by replying to this message! It's easy - all you have to do is generate a modulated gravity wave signal with a source strength of around four billion billion Megawatts! That may sound a lot, but it isn't really - it's only one percent of the energy output of the G-type star your planet orbits! Go on - you won't miss it!

But wait! Before you launch into a reply (and we're really keen to hear from you!) there are a few things you might want to keep in mind! Call them rules, call them guidelines, call them Good Old Common Sense - we don't care, as long as you obey them without question!

Only kidding! But there are still a few little things you might want to bear in mind, if only to avoid wasting expensive Galactic bandwidth! To assist in this, we've supplied a few tips that you may find useful!

Firstly, most new cultures want to know a bit about the wider Galactic Community - and who can blame them! It's a big old Galaxy out there and you've just joined the party! Right now, though, all you need to know is that you are one of the more junior members of the inhabited Galaxy, and that there are a few tests you have to pass before you can ascend to the second level of sentience! Don't be disheartened, though - you'll get there in the end if you stick at it! All it takes is intelligence, determination, and maybe a short extension on the Main Sequence lifetime of your star! In the meantime, we've prepared a Primer Package to get you started! There's a lot of information in the Primer Package - far too much to squeeze into a gravitational wave signal! So what we've done is pre-install the Primer Package on the metallic hydrogen ocean of your system's largest Gas Giant planet!

That's right - it's already there!

And if you'd already found the Primer Package and were wondering what that meter-wide grey ball was actually for - well, now you know! Just be careful opening it - or did you find that out already?! Well, it was a nice Gas Giant while it lasted!

Only kidding! But one of the things you'll notice about the Primer Package is that it doesn't say anything about faster than light travel! A lot of new species are really keen to learn about this, for some inexplicable reason! All we can say is that by the time you've ascended to the second level of sentience, you will find the question of 'faster than light travel' about as interesting as 'faster methods to cure animal skins', or 'faster ways to ferment mammalian lactic fluid'! Trust us! We were the same, once upon a time! (And no, we didn't believe it either!)

All the same, the Primer Package should answer a lot of your basic questions - and more! Most likely, though, you'll only end up with more questions that you want answering! We don't mind - that's what we're here for! But before you go firing off a bunch of random queries, have a quick glance at the following! It'll save your time - and ours!

First, make sure your query isn't covered by the Primer Package! It sounds obvious - and it is - but you'd be amazed how many cultures don't seem to have read their Primer Package all the way through! Remember that the Primer Package is highly nested, and that some content layers may not be accessible given your current spatio/temporal perception horizon! Just be patient!

Secondly, there are a few topics covered by the Primer Package that - while they may seem to lead to interesting follow-up questions to a level one culture, are a tiny bit passe where we're concerned! Frankly, we're just a little fed up with going over the same ground over and over again!

Some, but not all, of these topics include questions related to Supreme Beings, the Birth, Life, Death and Afterlife of the Universe, the Possibility of Other Universes, the official explanation for the Great Void at z=10, and the unscheduled downtime of the Orion Arm Router during Galactic rotation cycle 15, and its possible implication in the Ninth Mass Extinction (and the ensuing cover-up)!

If you could steer away from these topics, guys, that would be great!

Also, please don't reply to any transmissions originating from the M13 globular cluster in Hercules - and never, ever send them unsolicited messages! Especially not radio - they hate radio! Also beware of messages claiming to originate from ascended level 3 cultures, especially those which offer suspiciously cheap Dyson conversions of your solar system! Believe us - they are too good to be true! You'll also want to keep away from any entities posing as the legal heirs of the capital assets of the fallen level 2 culture on the edge of the Cygnus Loop - and you definitely don't want to give them the coordinates of your system!

Oh, and before we forget - never, ever ask what happened to the humans! Unless you want to find out!

PS - When appending content to incoming messages, please do not top-post.

I don’t know if there is life out there but for the human races sake I hope there isn’t

Yes. It's pretty much a statistical certainty. It's also very likely that many races are millions of years more advanced than us, technologically and culturally. The universe, quite simply, is too magnificently huge to contain only our pitifully crap race.

Yes. It's merely a question of mathematical probability. Let's say that sentient life on Earth is a product of a number of unlikely factors, such as position of our planet from our star, amount of water present, random evolutionary chance, etc. The fact that sentient life exists on Earth is proof that none of these factors is zero.

Therefore, the real test is the size of the universe. If the universe is infinite, the probability will be tested an infinite number of times, which will certainly yield extraterrestrial sentient life, regardless of how low the probability is.

Yes. We do exist and we hope to help your poor uncivilized planet become great one day.

I think it's the height of arrogance to speculate that there's no life out there and then try and argue the point. Luckily, people rarely do.

I agree completely that the law of probablility demands that there's every likelihood that other habitable planets exist out there. In fact, while no other terrestrial (Earth-like) worlds have yet been discovered, there are measurable habitable regions within some of the closest stars that, if they contain such planets, could very easily support life. Examples like Alpha Centauri A and B (each) are good ones. (Alpha Centauri A is much more likely, but it is possible for Alpha Centauri B to support some kind of life.)

Some such civilizations would probably be older than ours, some younger, but in any case, it's only a matter of time before we meet.

Alastair Reynolds

The Big Hello!
Welcome aboard! If you are in receipt of this message (and if you've succeeded in understanding it, of course) then you've already passed the hardest test! You've attained a basic competence in physics and engineering, coupled with enough of an understanding of the universe you live in, to intercept and decode signals from the Galactic Information Network!
--SNIP--


Okay, now this post reminds me of a nation that lived in my region for awhile, like 2 years ago. This guy (or girl? - I never figured it out) posted like he was from somewhere else, another galaxy or something I think it was. And then he went and posted other other regions the same way. I was so curious about him I read his posts when he travelled. I even talked to him a little. At first I figured he was some kind of weird freak or a crazy guy or just a PITA, but he never broke character and the more of his stuff I read, the more genuinely non-human he seemed. It was as if he was seeing everything from a completely different point of view -- not just a different philosophy, but from a totally different reality. Even when people tried to argue with him he just didn't say the kind of things we say. Then he just disappeared. He announced his coming departure, said what he had to say, and left.

AFAICS it has to be impossible. I mean, what are the odds that a genuine alien would waste his time talking to humans, and especially someplace like NS? We aren't exactly the best representatives of our pathetic planet. But I've never experienced anything that made me feel more like sentient life might want to talk to us. And some of the things he said have changed the way I think about my life. Weird, huh?

Okay, now this post reminds me of a nation that lived in my region for awhile, like 2 years ago. This guy (or girl? - I never figured it out) posted like he was from somewhere else, another galaxy or something I think it was. And then he went and posted other other regions the same way. I was so curious about him I read his posts when he travelled. I even talked to him a little. At first I figured he was some kind of weird freak or a crazy guy or just a PITA, but he never broke character and the more of his stuff I read, the more genuinely non-human he seemed. It was as if he was seeing everything from a completely different point of view -- not just a different philosophy, but from a totally different reality. Even when people tried to argue with him he just didn't say the kind of things we say. Then he just disappeared. He announced his coming departure, said what he had to say, and left.

AFAICS it has to be impossible. I mean, what are the odds that a genuine alien would waste his time talking to humans, and especially someplace like NS? We aren't exactly the best representatives of our pathetic planet. But I've never experienced anything that made me feel more like sentient life might want to talk to us. And some of the things he said have changed the way I think about my life. Weird, huh?

We may not be the best, but we are a damn sight better than second best.

We may not be the best, but we are a damn sight better than second best.

Not actually my point, and maybe it's also wholly irrelevant to the subject itself. One of the things that I started wondering about after I read this guy's posts was: what if real aliens won't have any interest in "grading on a curve"? I mean, what if they come here and don't say, "Well, they're not much, but they're the best earth has. We'd better talk to them"? What if they say, "They don't yet meet the minimum levels of [some qualities that are essential for contact]; there's no point talking to them now" and they leave? Or, what if they say, "They have problems that make them unsuitable for contact with us and with other intelligent life" and they leave?

Come to that, what if they already have come here, and have already decided that? It seems probable to me now that only our arrogance as a species could allow us to hope that as we are now, we're fit for contact with the kind of species/society that would be able to travel here.

However much better we are than whatever the second best is, I don't reckon we amount to much yet.

Considering the vastness of the universe, it would rather surprise me if there was no other sentient life somewhere. Some probably more developed than us, others less. But what difference would that make?

This sums up my opinion.

Simple question folks, what do you think?

I reckon that sentient alien life WILL exist, one day in the distant future, but at the moment we, the human race, are the first to have evolved into sentience.

After our planet turns into a dusty rock floating in the coldest recesses of space, new, alien life forms will have become self-aware in another corner of the Universe, but I think (being a proud Human Being as I am) that we were the first.

Thoughts? Comments?

I reckon there's room enough for more than one sentient species to exist simultaneously. I also reckon there's sentients who came before us somewhere, and that elsewhere there'll be others after we're done here.

I don't think we were first, though. That's just being silly.

Yes, I think it's quite possible. However, considering the distances invloved, it's highly unlikely we'll ever be meeting unless there is some REALLY funky bending of the laws of space/time as we know them.

And yes, proof is that we haven't been visited yet. That shows they are indeed really intelligent.

So true. Intelligent life would avoid having its IQ destroyed by interacting with us. ;)

You know I while back I read a book titled Propability One or something similar that basicly went about showing mathimaticaly that following the rules of propability so long as the chance of life apearing wasn't immpossible, which our existance shows isn't the case, it becomes basicly mathematicly inevetable that other life would exist. It was pretty interesting.

I have trouble making a case for sentient life on this planet.

I think it is almost certain. The Universe's vastness may prevent us from ever meeting other sentient species, but I'm fairly sure they are there. Furthermore iirc, according to quantum mechanics, there may be infinite universes, correct? If true, EVERY possibility exists somewhere.

Simple question folks, what do you think?

I reckon that sentient alien life WILL exist, one day in the distant future, but at the moment we, the human race, are the first to have evolved into sentience.

After our planet turns into a dusty rock floating in the coldest recesses of space, new, alien life forms will have become self-aware in another corner of the Universe, but I think (being a proud Human Being as I am) that we were the first.

Thoughts? Comments?

Simple answer: No. We are alone. I suggest you sit back and enjoy the vastness of interstellar space that is, by virtue of possessing the capability to ponder such wistful and childish dreams as alien life forms, ours. And in a greater sense, God's. But unbelievers abound; I find it laughable that so many who denounce God's existence readily accept the untruth of alien life. It is a fairy tale of our own imaginings, and will forever be confined to the realm of fantasy, or more accurately, science fiction.

There's billions and billions of galaxies with billions and billions of solar systems and billions and billions of planets within.

Oh yeah, there's other sentient lifeforms somewhere around here.

Anyone else think it's possible there may be billions of universes? I mean, if the Universe is exanding, it has to be expanding inside of something right?

How the fuck would I know?

There's billions and billions of galaxies with billions and billions of solar systems and billions and billions of planets within.

Oh yeah, there's other sentient lifeforms somewhere around here.

Anyone else think it's possible there may be billions of universes? I mean, if the Universe is exanding, it has to be expanding inside of something right?

Certainly not billions of universes.

More like ∞ universes.

Probably not any we could recognize as life and probably not possessing any emotions that we could relate to on even a fundamental level.

Do aliens (http://www.projectrho.com/rocket/rocket3aa.html) exist? Considering how many stars there are and that a good percentage of them have solid planets I'd say that it probably does exist elsewhere. But that life will be completely different from anything we know about. It will also be extremely rare.

I must stress that there is no evidence of life existing beyond the sphere we call "dirt" and until we do find life 'out there' the most we can do is speculate.

Nyrath!

I would have to say Yes, and that we're like the Alabama of the Universe.

I'd have to say yes, there is sentient life out there. But with distance being what it is. We'll never find it, and it will never find us. So to all extents and purposes, no.

Certainly not billions of universes.

More like ∞ universes.'universe' refers to all that exists, how can you have multiples of that? let alone infinitely many.

I would have to say Yes, and that we're like the Alabama of the Universe.

We occasionally have sex with our cousins?

Zing!

Indeed.

Too many variables.

However, as my poorly written theory states, its numerically silly to assume we are alone.Not if you'd actually used 0.001% instead of 0.1%, which you used in most of you calculation :) And at the end it even drops to 10% Follwing your calculation with the parameters you set off with, we get a number much, much smaller than 1.
Of course, the parameters aren't even educated guesses, but pulled out of thin air. Supposedly they underestimate the true values of the parameters, but how do we know? Without having a better idea about what those parameters are, and how they interact, it's silly to do a calculation.

So far, we have not found places in our solar system that would have conditions suitable for life as we know it. We haven't looked that hard either.There are a few strong contenders, like Jupiter's moon Europa. But indeed, we can't know untill we look.

On the universe, given the abundance of "life stuff" (carbon and water) in the galaxies as well as stars, not to mention the amount time that has already passed, I think it would be unlikely for life NOT to emerge elsewhere in the cosmos.Carbon and water might not even be prerequisites for life, we only know they're necessary for our kind of life.
However, we know far too little to make an educated guess one way or another to whether there's other life out there. Such a large empty universe feels wrong, but where's our data and theories? We'll have to base it on more than just our existence.

So what can we do?
Well, just looking at earthly life; we can try to find out how life came to be here, and how likely the proces is. That will tell us something about other earth-like planets and possible life on them (but disregarding all other possible modes of life).
One important thing to note is how many cataclysms earth has had to endure, asteroids hitting it, supervolcanoes blowing up, ice covering the globe. You could suspect it's a wonder life survived at all. Or, you could posit that once life emerges, it's near impossible to destroy; sure higher lifeforms die off in mass extinctions, but they'll be replaced soon enough. It does not seem entirely unreasonable to assume that once life comes into existence, we don't have to worry it'll disappear any time soon.

But what will it take for life to spontaneously come into being int he first place? How likely is it for DNA to form, or RNA, proteins, cell-structure? We know very little about it.
So let's take one example..
We'll try to see how long it take for a DNA with a length of just three bases takes to form spontaneously (that's one billionth of the length of our DNA btw). We fill the entire universe with a saturated solution of the appropriate bases, and we wait. How long do you expect to have to wait?
It turns out the answer is several hundred times the life of the universe.
Makes life seem unlikely doesn't it?
However, it only goes to show that a lack of information results in unreliable answers. The calculation assumed there weren't any other influences, and that the DNA bases just bumped around and into each other untill they connect. The story changes significantly if you factor in something as simple as the clay at the bottom of the ocean, as it turns out clay can function as a catalyst, it can speed up the chemistry enough so that just an ocean full of our solution would yield a three-base piece of DNA in something like 100 million years, give or take several orders of magnitude (so don't get exited, it might still be more than the age of the universe).

The point is, we don't know enough about the story of the emergence of life, even on our planet, to start quantifying and guestimating. Not in a scientific way, at least. We have a lot of investigating to do first.

(Rambling loosely based on a few points from "What does a martian look like? / the science of extraterrestial life" by Ian Stewart and Jack Cohen
Read it, it's great; better than me rambling about it, anyway.)

Simply because the universe is huge enough for 1 in a billion odds not to matter, I think there must be some intelligent life out there, somewhere.

But, also because the universe is so vast, I'm doubtful that our paths will ever cross.

Not if you'd actually used 0.001% instead of 0.1%, which you used in most of you calculation :) And at the end it even drops to 10% Follwing your calculation with the parameters you set off with, we get a number much, much smaller than 1.
Of course, the parameters aren't even educated guesses, but pulled out of thin air. Supposedly they underestimate the true values of the parameters, but how do we know? Without having a better idea about what those parameters are, and how they interact, it's silly to do a calculation.


Finally!

Someone who sees just HOW poorly written that theory was!

Whoohoo!

I was beginning to think nobody was going to notice.

I actually haver a slightly better version of it somehwere, but again, as you point out quite accurately, the parameters are totally unknown, so it nulls the point of purposely calculating such a possibility.

However, the principle is pretty simple...its a BIG universe out there, and its pretty near impossible that we are alone.

I am certain that there are other intelligent civilisations in the universe. Millions of them.

Backwoodssquatches Crappy Alien Life Theory:

BACKWOODSSQUATCHES THEORY ON THE PROBABILITY OF TERRESTRIAL VISITATION.
It's your theory now is it? ;)

Oh hello, Drake!

Probably. But it doesn't really make much difference to me.

If intelligent life exists on one alien planet, that would make a total of one planet with intelligent life in the galaxy.

I dont think we can even say for sure either way. However I have noticed that th general societal feeling is that Aliens would nearly always be more advanced than us. Not only that, but they could easily overpower us. Really, the human mammal is an incredibly adaptable and balanced creature and our society seems to move forward in exponentionally larger leaps each time. It makes no sense to place us at th bottom of the ladder when we may very well be far above any other.

In any case, we cannot assume that any other life could even relate to us. All five of our senses developed here on earth, we cant expect any alien we meet to have eyes, ears or mouths, we especially cant expect them to walk upright or have earth-borne appendages. I dont think we can even safely say they will exist with the same basic needs as us

I dont think we can even say for sure either way. However I have noticed that th general societal feeling is that Aliens would nearly always be more advanced than us. Not only that, but they could easily overpower us. Really, the human mammal is an incredibly adaptable and balanced creature and our society seems to move forward in exponentionally larger leaps each time. It makes no sense to place us at th bottom of the ladder when we may very well be far above any other.

In any case, we cannot assume that any other life could even relate to us. All five of our senses developed here on earth, we cant expect any alien we meet to have eyes, ears or mouths, we especially cant expect them to walk upright or have earth-borne appendages. I dont think we can even safely say they will exist with the same basic needs as us
Yes, we can. All complex, multi-cellular life will require ways to interact with their environment. Most will have organs used to detect electromagnetic waves. They might not be visible waves - perhaps they "see" in the ultraviolet spectrum - but they will still be eyes. If they don't have eyes, then they wil have a method of detecting sound, or ultrasound. Perhaps they have neither, and rely on an acute sense of balance to navigate.

Either way, there's only a limited number of ways life can interact with nature. We'd be able to see analogues fairly easily.

I am certain that there are other intelligent civilisations in the universe. Millions of them.


It's your theory now is it? ;)

Oh hello, Drake!


Ive heard that before.

I swear to you, before I came up with that theory, I had never heard of Drake, nor his much better and actually educated theory.

Not kidding..

After I had, I felt fairly smug for a bit.
I mean im no astronomer, and obviously no mathematician, so to unintentionally mimic an already established theory....thats pretty good, I think.

So....eh.

Sure theres life out there. The universe s too big not to contain other life. We just haven't been invited to the party yet;)

Sure theres life out there. The universe s too big not to contain other life. We just haven't been invited to the party yet;)



...and how many of us would invite the local junkyard dogs to one of our parties? The way we waste our energy, our time, our money, our intelligence, our technology, and even the lives and futures of our children on fighting with one another to "prove" who's "right", how could we possibly fit in with the kind of beings that could get themselves together enough to get here -- assuming they'd even bother coming to this dump?

Our opinion of ourselves is just too inflated.