NationStates Jolt Archive

Make your predictions, oh sage ones!

Especially you who think you know everything!

What do you think will be the eventual outcome of the presence of the UN force in Lebanon? Will it have teeth? More importantly, will it have balls? What will Hezbollah do? Will Hezbollah be disarmed? By whom?

Keep in mind this is your PREDICTIONS only - not what is currently happenning today.

I'll go for 'UN force does nothing, Hezbollah re-arms, war resumes', though I don't think the war will resume for some months. Maybe in time for Christmas.

We all know that the UN will do jack shit about Hezbollah. The war will probably resume because of the incompentence of those incharge of Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and the United Nations.

We all know bananas will happen. They always do.

I vote other..

wait there is no "other" option..
bananas it is.

I vote other..

wait there is no "other" option..
bananas it is.
Sorry, Ocean. The UN isn't going to dismantle Israel.

Depends on the mandate.

I went with UN force makes croissants - leaves some for Hez I consider this the most likely outcome.

Depends on the mandate.
I have the feeling no one is going to give them enough of a mandate.

While the people who volunteered to send troops would like a good mandate (so they don't end up as burnt carcasses hanging from a bridge), other nations such as China don't want the UN to have any ability to use force in such a manner.

And any friend of Iran or Syria would object as well.

Sorry, Ocean. The UN isn't going to dismantle Israel.

Lmao :D

I went with UN force makes croissants - leaves some for Hez I consider this the most likely outcome.
At least that's a happy ending, I suppose.

Sorry, Ocean. The UN isn't going to dismantle Israel.the question is what do you think it will happen..

I tell you what will happen..
The figthing will resume before the suposed UN "stabilization" force makes it in position (buffer formation.. blue line.. whatever).

that option is not in the poll.. so its Bananas (other)

the question is what do you think it will happen..

I tell you what will happen..
The figthing will resume before the suposed UN "stabilization" force makes it there.

At the rate the UN force is deploying you could very well be correct.

I don't know; I think the UN/Lebanon will be somewhat effective in controlling Hezballah but they won't be able to totally disarm or demobilize the group. Also, given the renewed attention to Iran I think Hezballah might lay low to build up supplies and funds just in case the flow of equipment and money from Iran is interrupted for any reason.

Either way, things will be quiet for a while. The real question is if Lebanon can transform the group from a militia in to an ordinary political party; the best thing would be for Hezballah to focus more on its political role in the new Lebanon rather than its military role against Israel. That will require cooperation from not just Hezballah but also Iran, Syria, and Israel...although I wonder whether any of them really want the status quo to change.

the question is what do you think it will happen..

I tell you what will happen..
The figthing will resume before the suposed UN "stabilization" force makes it there.

that option is not in the poll.. so its Bananas (other)

The Lebanese Army seems to be moving south doing its part.
The Israeli Army is leaving - doing its part.
Minor infraction with a small raid - evidently Hez doesn't think it's worth shelling Israel over.
UN forces already some in place - more to come.

You were saying?

..you could very well be correct.of course I am..

Vegas experts rate my Middle-East-predictions at 90%

welcome back Corneliu, I missed you ;) :fluffle:

of course I am..

Vegas experts rate my Middle-East-predictions at 90%

welcome back Corneliu, I missed you ;) :fluffle:

The people in Vegas want your money... just an observation...

You were saying?i am saying bananas

Un army disarms hizbollah, a few disorganised militants attempt to attack Israel, Israel retaliates with another renewed attack on Lebanon in "self defence", perhaps followed by a military occupation of southern Lebanon

At least that's a happy ending, I suppose.

Well happy til Hezbollah decides to start firing their rockets whilst eating the croissants.

Although I would love the UN force disarms Hezbollah - Hez disappears - peace option, sadly the most likely out come will be that the UN peacekeeping force will be poorly co-ordinated and ultimately unable to permanently disband Hezbollah.

The UN needs major reform in order for it to work properly...

I predict no substantial change whatsoever.

What do you think will be the eventual outcome of the presence of the UN force in Lebanon? Will it have teeth? More importantly, will it have balls? What will Hezbollah do? Will Hezbollah be disarmed? By whom?
Some sequence of event that will never become totally clear will lead to a re-escalation of strikes by Israel and Hezbollah. The UN will pull most of its forces out, and all-out war will resume.

...sadly the most likely out come will be that the UN peacekeeping force will be poorly co-ordinated and ultimately unable to permanently disband Hezbollah.

The UN needs major reform in order for it to work properly...To all the people expecting the UN forces to disband or disarm Hezbollah..

You all need to realize.. The UN never promised to do that.

http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/world/15312719.htm

Annan says U.N. won't 'wage war'
Associated Press Sat, Aug. 19, 2006
UNITED NATIONS - Secretary-General Kofi Annan appealed to U.N. member states to provide desperately needed U.N. peacekeeping troops for Lebanon and assured them the U.N. force would not "wage war" on Israel, Lebanon, or Hezbollah militants.

"It is not expected to achieve by force what must be realized through negotiation and an internal Lebanese consensus," Annan said in a report to the U.N. Security Council on implementation of the Aug. 11 resolution calling for an end to the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict.

To all the people expecting the UN forces to disband or disarm Hezbollah..

You all need to realize.. The UN never promised to do that.

http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/world/15312719.htm

Annan says U.N. won't 'wage war'
Associated Press
UNITED NATIONS - Secretary-General Kofi Annan appealed to U.N. member states to provide desperately needed U.N. peacekeeping troops for Lebanon and assured them the U.N. force would not "wage war" on Israel, Lebanon, or Hezbollah militants.

"It is not expected to achieve by force what must be realized through negotiation and an internal Lebanese consensus," Annan said in a report to the U.N. Security Council on implementation of the Aug. 11 resolution calling for an end to the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict.


Sounds like he wants them to disband and disarm by talking them into it.

You're saying that's not "the UN disarming Hezbollah"?

My prediction:

Disney presents: Lebanon!

It's all the rage.

To all the people expecting the UN forces to disband or disarm Hezbollah..

You all need to realize.. The UN never promised to do that.

http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/world/15312719.htm

Annan says U.N. won't 'wage war'

Since when does one need war to disarm someone? Countries have disarmed their nuclear weaponry without a fight.

Since when does one need war to disarm someone? Countries have disarmed their nuclear weaponry without a fight.
I think Ocean is saying that Hezbollah will never disarm, not without killing them all.

The Lebanese Army seems to be moving south doing its part.
The Israeli Army is leaving - doing its part.
Minor infraction with a small raid - evidently Hez doesn't think it's worth shelling Israel over.
UN forces already some in place - more to come.

You were saying?
meh.

the lebanese army moving south is merely symbolic. They are purposely avoiding confrontation with Hezbolla. This war has merely been delayed to a later date. Neither the lebanese army or any future UN force will do jack shit since Israel was persuaded to stop before the job was finished - and god forbid should anyone but Israeli forces die in lebanon.

No, a re-evaluation of tactics is needed.

I think Ocean is saying that Hezbollah will never disarm, not without killing them all.

There is some logic to that you know.

Yeah. Sounds to me they'll disarm them through negotiation rather than brute force. The best way to do it, really.

Yeah. Sounds to me they'll disarm them through negotiation rather than brute force. The best way to do it, really.
We'll see.

If a joint UN-Lebanese Army force is able to establish itself as the dominant power in Southern Lebanon, there is a chance, mind you, just a chance, that it could succeed.

If a joint UN-Lebanese Army force is able to establish itself as the dominant power in Southern Lebanon, there is a chance, mind you, just a chance, that it could succeed.

Here's hoping. That would certainly do wonders for the region and the UN's prestige. Fingers crossed huh guys?

If a joint UN-Lebanese Army force is able to establish itself as the dominant power in Southern Lebanon, there is a chance, mind you, just a chance, that it could succeed.
Either that, or Hezbollah fires rockets from further north to land in Israel - rockets delivered courtesy of Iran and Syria.

Either that, or Hezbollah fires rockets from further north to land in Israel - rockets delivered courtesy of Iran and Syria.

Very optimistic aren't we?

Very optimistic aren't we?
Iran just tested a batch this week. It was in the news.

The ones they tested would easily go right over the UN forces and land in Israel.

Iran just tested a batch this week. It was in the news.

The ones they tested would easily go right over the UN forces and land in Israel.

I'm pretty sure Iran won't do that. Ahmedinejad might be a total ass, but I think he knows that would be suicide, unless of course he'd like a few Israeli missiles headed his way. Up until now, as far as I know, Hezbollah has been using ancient Soviet missiles to hit Israel, and we can hardly blame Russia today for that.

Yeah. Sounds to me they'll disarm them through negotiation rather than brute force. The best way to do it, really.why should Hezbollah disarm?
If I was Hezbollah I would not disarm.. for as long as they do not leave Sheeba Farems.. and free all POWs.

why should Hezbollah disarm?
If I was Hezbollah I would not disarm.. for as long as they do not leave Sheeba Farems.. and free all POWs.
1. The UN resolution requires it.

2. Shebaa Farms only appears on one map as part of Lebanon, and that map has been proven (and is agreed by the UN) as a complete forgery.

3. The UN has permanently decided that Shebaa Farms is not part of Lebanon.

So, it's not Hezbollah's to receive Shebaa Farms.

Incidentally, Hezbollah has publicly stated that even if they do get Shebaa Farms, they will not disarm or stop attacking Israel until the Jews are dead.

why should Hezbollah disarm?
If I was Hezbollah I would not disarm.. for as long as they do not leave Sheeba Farems.. and free all POWs.

Shebaa Farms is not part of Lebanon jackass.

Shebaa Farms is not part of Lebanon jackass.flaming much?

flaming much?

You are beating a dead horse fool. Only a fool would believe what you are saying. Luckily for us rational people, we actually know that shebaa belongs to Syria and not to Lebanon.

nothing will happen, the only difference is there are going to be more witnesses (UN) to what will happen next.

the UN has proven themselves useless in many other situations, but yet people still listen to them.

I'll go for 'UN force does nothing, Hezbollah re-arms, war resumes', though I don't think the war will resume for some months. Maybe in time for Christmas.


Exactly.

nothing will happen, the only difference is there are going to be more witnesses (UN) to what will happen next.

the UN has proven themselves useless in many other situations, but yet people still listen to them.

Ironic is it not? They show themselves to be worthless but because they are worthless people listen to them. Morons.

why should Hezbollah disarm?
If I was Hezbollah I would not disarm.. for as long as they do not leave Sheeba Farems.. and free all POWs.


You're breaking your own highly touted UN resolutions.

Luckily for us rational people, we actually know that shebaa belongs to Syria and not to Lebanon.you and your rational buddies... do you still believe Hezbollah is on the EU terror list??

you and your rational buddies... do you still believe Hezbollah is on the EU terror list??

Since it has nothing to do with this thread, it is an off-topic comment.

Since it has nothing to do with this thread, it is an off-topic comment.breakingNEWS for you..

do call me a Jackass.. only when you are ready to eat Crow.

breakingNEWS for you..

do call me a Jackass If you are not ready to eat Crow.

I will call you a jackass when you are a jackass. Saying Shebaa Farms belong to Lebanon makes you a jackass.

I predict there will be very little difference & fighting will slowly break out again once the UN leaves.

Plus que ca change.