NationStates Jolt Archive

So, unless something very radical happens, a new Mexican Revolution seems unavoidable. It really has been a very strong possibility since a year ago, but it's not almost certain. Mexico exports around 1.5 million barrels per day to the US, plus it's the third largest trading partners (ie. exports and imports), thousands of jobs in the US and Canada depend on Mexico.

The US may or may not see a human wave, even larger than what they're used to, of refugees making a run to the border (which they'll have to accept being a signatary of the UN Convention on Refugees). This would depend on the duration and severity of the conlict, but Mexicans like their civil wars long and messy.

Of course, a Mexican leader could show ableness, boldness, imagination, and enough sense to avoid a conflict.

Nah, that doesn't exist.

So, what are your thoughts? Will you join the alzados or the federales?

I'm waiting for the whole Baja peninsula to become a sovereign nation, and petition to become part of the Union...slowly, one revolution at a time, Mexico will become part of the US. :cool:

Edit: For many of the same reasons, revolution within Mexico are equally improbably.. hehe.. these threads run together so much, I addressed the usual immigration complaint, rather than the actual question. Politics on the brain. :(

I'm waiting for the whole Baja peninsula to become a sovereign nation, and petition to become part of the Union...slowly, one revolution at a time, Mexico will become part of the US. :cool:
That is a possibility that the northern states consider from time to time. Maybe this time they'll say 'what the heck' and do it. It would allow the US to establish a buffer zone too.

That's exactly what Mexico doesn't need. If we can get through this then Mexico should start developing faster, because now we know that the government can survive a time of trouble.

No, there won't be a revolution, of any kind, ever. Any educated Mexican knows that radical Mexicans' claims to American territory are false, and second generation Mexicans normally identify more with the dominant American culture than with anything you'd find in Mexico.
That's not the revolution I was talking about. I meant civil war inside Mexico by Mexicans.

That's not the revolution I was talking about. I meant civil war inside Mexico by Mexicans.

I know, sorry.. threw me a curveball.. looked like the usual "stop the invasion" thread with the right lack of sleep. :p

I've thought it was a possibility, with all the corruption of the government, and the staggering crime rates. The seeds of Revolution are there, but is the population willing to act? Will the seeds take root? That is the question only time can answer.

Compared to past years, the government has being doing better. To start a revolution now would mean to erase all that. After the revolution it would just be the same, same crime rates, same corruption. You can't just start over, you have to progress.

I hate to say it, but I would be very interested in some change in map lines in the area. If an entire State made up of Mexicans who were there first were in the Union, maybe we'd have a little less pussyfooting around the issues concerning Mexico. That could eventually lead to a policy that strengthens Mexico, which would decrease the motivation for border-hopping, which would make a lot of Americans happy, and would secure a stronger ally for the US...of which we're in sore need these days.

On the other hand, it could just cripple Mexico irreversably, leading to massive increases in immigration and more revolution, lots of bloodshed, and some really unhappy people in the US...along with much more pussyfooting, because nobody wants to offend "those new people."

Depends.

I've thought it was a possibility, with all the corruption of the government, and the staggering crime rates. The seeds of Revolution are there, but is the population willing to act? Will the seeds take root? That is the question only time can answer.
Since the election and Lopez Obrador accepting nothing less than a total recount of polls, which the electoral law really doesn't consider and the electoral tribunal just rejected, a big part of the population has been simmering over some recent issues, like the miners conflict, the teachers in Oaxaca (who were shot at today by the state police), the drug related violence, and the general population being sick and tired of being sick and tired, the time is ripe for revolution.

In fact, that was the cry at Lopez Obrador's rally earlier tonight. He said that the fight is not to reform the Mexican institutions in any way necessary, and the people shouted "Revolution! Revolution!"

As I said, this has been cooking for over a year, perhaps two, that a revolution started to look like a real possibility.

I hate to say it, but I would be very interested in some change in map lines in the area. If an entire State made up of Mexicans who were there first were in the Union, maybe we'd have a little less pussyfooting around the issues concerning Mexico. That could eventually lead to a policy that strengthens Mexico, which would decrease the motivation for border-hopping, which would make a lot of Americans happy, and would secure a stronger ally for the US...of which we're in sore need these days.

On the other hand, it could just cripple Mexico irreversably, leading to massive increases in immigration and more revolution, lots of bloodshed, and some really unhappy people in the US...along with much more pussyfooting, because nobody wants to offend "those new people."

Depends.


Hmm...the dark side of my statement lol

Since the election and Lopez Obrador accepting nothing less than a total recount of polls, which the electoral law really doesn't consider and the electoral tribunal just rejected, a big part of the population has been simmering over some recent issues, like the miners conflict, the teachers in Oaxaca (who were shot at today by the state police), the drug related violence, and the general population being sick and tired of being sick and tired, the time is ripe for revolution.

In fact, that was the cry at Lopez Obrador's rally earlier tonight. He said that the fight is not to reform the Mexican institutions in any way necessary, and the people shouted "Revolution! Revolution!"

As I said, this has been cooking for over a year, perhaps two, that a revolution started to look like a real possibility.

I totally agree with ya mate :)

Compared to past years, the government has being doing better. To start a revolution now would mean to erase all that. After the revolution it would just be the same, same crime rates, same corruption. You can't just start over, you have to progress.
Economically the government has been doing great. The figures are very good, but the government lost its chance at making it count for the poorest people (ie. getting the wealth to trickle down) and was incapable of negotiating with several sectors which has resulted in several violent confrontations: Atenco, Estado de México, the miners, etc. Plus, it has been totally overtaken by the drug cartels in several areas of the country, and has not moved against corruption.

The seeds of Revolution are there, but is the population willing to act?

i think they've been rather nicely demonstrating that they are for some time now

Hmm...the dark side of my statement lol

And the bright, what with the strong allies and HappyMexico option. :p

Economically the government has been doing great. The figures are very good, but the government lost its chance at making it count for the poorest people (ie. getting the wealth to trickle down) and was incapable of negotiating with several sectors which has resulted in several violent confrontations: Atenco, Estado de México, the miners, etc. Plus, it has been totally overtaken by the drug cartels in several areas of the country, and has not moved against corruption.


When the Proletariat is unhappy, and crapped on like in this case, you see revolutions. Thats historically true, especially for poorer countries, and that part of the world. I wouldn't be shocked to see an uprising.

And the bright, what with the strong allies and HappyMexico option. :p


:D :D :D

Another point of interest is what's the US answer going to be. They have far more interest in Mexico now than 100 years ago, and the common border is far more populated. Even if their military is stuck in Irak I think we could see some troops moving in to protect either oil fields or US citizens' properties. And in the event of needing to set up refugee camps, that's going to be another issue.

Another point of interest is what's the US answer going to be. They have far more interest in Mexico now than 100 years ago, and the common border is far more populated. Even if their military is stuck in Irak I think we could see some troops moving in to protect either oil fields or US citizens' properties. And in the event of needing to set up refugee camps, that's going to be another issue.

We've actually got signifigantly less interest. Before Texas broke off, there was such a flood of Americans into Texas that the Mexican government closed the border. In that revolution, a good portion of the rebels were still American citizens, or Americans who had become Mexican citizens.

Unless the war moves into Texas again (and thus involves the Mexicans in America), we don't really need to take any stance at all. We will, but we don't need to.

We've actually got signifigantly less interest. Before Texas broke off, there was such a flood of Americans into Texas that the Mexican government closed the border. In that revolution, a good portion of the rebels were still American citizens, or Americans who had become Mexican citizens.
Read my first post. US interests in Mexico are far greater than at any other point in history and their economies had never been so intertwined.

We've actually got signifigantly less interest. Before Texas broke off, there was such a flood of Americans into Texas that the Mexican government closed the border. In that revolution, a good portion of the rebels were still American citizens, or Americans who had become Mexican citizens.

Unless the war moves into Texas again (and thus involves the Mexicans in America), we don't really need to take any stance at all. We will, but we don't need to.

Actually, its a good possibility that we would. The reason is the Maquiladoras that we have along the SEZs (Special Economic Zones) along the border, and in various parts of the country. If there were a revolution, we might lose those, and that would not be looked favorably upon by us, since merchandise prices would go up considerably.

EDIT: I had to take a course on this subject actually ;)

I'm going to bump this, just because I can and because protesters took the building of the State Secretary of Economy in Oaxaca. The police shot a couple of times, but the protesters didn't back down.

I'm going to bump this, just because I can and because protesters took the building of the State Secretary of Economy in Oaxaca. The police shot a couple of times, but the protesters didn't back down.

This is creepy, since I just watched V for Vendetta a few days ago. Really creepy timing.

It'll make for good TV.

I am a horrible person. The more I read about the current unrest in Oaxaca, the more I worry about the gold plated cathedral there. It is one of the most beautiful interior spaces in the world. It is also a testament to colonialism, religious oppresssion, and environmental destruction. But it's gorgeous.

Anyway, a link to a related article:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20060802.woaxaca0802/BNStory/International/home

Read my first post. US interests in Mexico are far greater than at any other point in history and their economies had never been so intertwined.

at the very least the u.s. has more interests in mexico now than they ever found necessary to justify 'interventions' in latin america before

Spoons? My, these Mexicn women are resourcefull.

how can they have a revolution when half of them flee up to the US?:p

how can they have a revolution when half of them flee up to the US?:p

If the Republicans all left the US and the Democrats lost an election, would a revolution be that far-fetched?

Civil war in Mexico? Unlikely unless there is a major catalyst

Civil war in Mexico? Unlikely unless there is a major catalyst
Have you been following the news from Mexico and Lopez Obrador's speeches?

Civil war in Mexico? Unlikely unless there is a major catalyst

From what I hear, their government's been shooting civilians. That'd be enough for a lot of people. That'd be enough for me.

From what I hear, their government's been shooting civilians. That'd be enough for a lot of people. That'd be enough for me.
It was the municipal police in the city of Oaxaca. They shot to the air.

Civil war in Mexico? Unlikely unless there is a major catalyst

do try to keep up

So, a bit more than an hour ago the PRD supporters, including some Congress members, were happily trying to block the access point to the San Lazaro Palace where the Mexican Congress meets (like the Capitol building in the US) when the Federal police came in to move them out.

The police tried to move out the vehicles the protestors were using to block the avenue, the mob got angry and attacked. However, this was not the wimpy city police, but the very well equipped federal police, and they responded with kicks, gas, and clubs. The police was able to keep them out, but thousands of protestors are now moving to the place and are arming themselves with rocks and clubs.

Andres Manuel has vowed to increase the resistance to what he calls and imposition and do whatever he has to do to keep the new president from being sworn in.

Maybe the guns will come out shortly?

So, what are your thoughts? Well, it's well known that the Mexican government is somewhat corrupt, but it's a shame that it could take a revolution to unentrench them.

Will you join the alzados or the federales?If I were there, I'd join the Zapatistas.

If the Republicans all left the US and the Democrats lost an election, would a revolution be that far-fetched?

Wait...

Who would they lose to?

Apart from possibly the new rising party promising to solve the problems of around half of the population leaving...

Wow, I thought this topic died like 6 days ago.

Anyway, let's just hope that somebody in charge over there takes a kick in the balls for the team and avoids the slaughter of their own countrymen.

Wait...

Who would they lose to?

Apart from possibly the new rising party promising to solve the problems of around half of the population leaving...

Let's just say for the sake of argument, that Ralph Nader or one of the numerous Libertarians who post on this board all the time happen to exist...