NationStates Jolt Archive


Crapload of Oil in Colorado

Dodudodu
02-08-2006, 18:44
When oil prices last touched record highs - actually, after adjusting for inflation we're not there yet, but given the effects of Hurricane Katrina, we probably will be soon - politicians' response was more hype than hope. Oil shale in Colorado! Tar sands in Alberta! OPEC be damned!
Remember the Carter-era Synfuels Corp. debacle? It was a response to the '70s energy shortages, closed down in 1985 after accomplishing essentially nothing at great expense, which is pretty much a description of what usually happens when the government tries to take over something that the private sector can do better. Private actors are, after all, spending their own money.

Since 1981, Shell researchers at the company's division of "unconventional resources" have been spending their own money trying to figure out how to get usable energy out of oil shale. Judging by the presentation the Rocky Mountain News heard this week, they think they've got it.

Shell's method, which it calls "in situ conversion," is simplicity itself in concept but exquisitely ingenious in execution. Terry O'Connor, a vice president for external and regulatory affairs at Shell Exploration and Production, explained how it's done (and they have done it, in several test projects):

Drill shafts into the oil-bearing rock. Drop heaters down the shaft. Cook the rock until the hydrocarbons boil off, the lightest and most desirable first. Collect them.

Please note, you don't have to go looking for oil fields when you're brewing your own.

On one small test plot about 20 feet by 35 feet, on land Shell owns, they started heating the rock in early 2004. "Product" - about one-third natural gas, two-thirds light crude - began to appear in September 2004. They turned the heaters off about a month ago, after harvesting about 1,500 barrels of oil.

While we were trying to do the math, O'Connor told us the answers. Upwards of a million barrels an acre, a billion barrels a square mile. And the oil shale formation in the Green River Basin, most of which is in Colorado, covers more than a thousand square miles - the largest fossil fuel deposits in the world.

Wow.

They don't need subsidies; the process should be commercially feasible with world oil prices at $30 a barrel. The energy balance is favorable; under a conservative life-cycle analysis, it should yield 3.5 units of energy for every 1 unit used in production. The process recovers about 10 times as much oil as mining the rock and crushing and cooking it at the surface, and it's a more desirable grade. Reclamation is easier because the only thing that comes to the surface is the oil you want.

And we've hardly gotten to the really ingenious part yet. While the rock is cooking, at about 650 or 750 degrees Fahrenheit, how do you keep the hydrocarbons from contaminating ground water? Why, you build an ice wall around the whole thing. As O'Connor said, it's counterintuitive.

But ice is impermeable to water. So around the perimeter of the productive site, you drill lots more shafts, only 8 to 12 feet apart, put in piping, and pump refrigerants through it. The water in the ground around the shafts freezes, and eventually forms a 20- to 30-foot ice barrier around the site.

Next you take the water out of the ground inside the ice wall, turn up the heat, and then sit back and harvest the oil until it stops coming in useful quantities. When production drops, it falls off rather quickly.

That's an advantage over ordinary wells, which very gradually get less productive as they age.

Then you pump the water back in. (Well, not necessarily the same water, which has moved on to other uses.) It's hot down there so the water flashes into steam, picking up loose chemicals in the process. Collect the steam, strip the gunk out of it, repeat until the water comes out clean. Then you can turn off the heaters and the chillers and move on to the next plot (even saving one or two of the sides of the ice wall, if you want to be thrifty about it).

Most of the best territory for this astonishing process is on land under the control of the Bureau of Land Management. Shell has applied for a research and development lease on 160 acres of BLM land, which could be approved by February. That project would be on a large enough scale so design of a commercial facility could begin.

The 2005 energy bill altered some provisions of the 1920 Minerals Leasing Act that were a deterrent to large-scale development, and also laid out a 30-month timetable for establishing federal regulations governing commercial leasing.

Shell has been deliberately low-key about their R&D, wanting to avoid the hype, and the disappointment, that surrounded the last oil-shale boom. But O'Connor said the results have been sufficiently encouraging they are gradually getting more open. Starting next week, they will be holding public hearings in northwest Colorado.


This article was in the Rocky Mountain News about a little less than a year ago, September 2005 I think.

So what do you people think? No large scale attempts have been made in getting to this source yet, but if it really is economical at $30 a barrel, is it worth it?
I'll look into that.

Anyone have some more recent news on this?

*Edit*
Did my wikipedia-ing, came up with this.
Below forty dollars a barrel, oil-shale oil is not competitive with conventional crude oil. If the price of oil were to stay permanently over forty dollars a barrel (with no chance of declining, which could be the case if oil shale were to be exploited on a large enough scale), then companies would exploit oil shale. Generally, the oil shale has to be mined, transported, retorted, and then disposed of, so at least 40% of the energy value is consumed in production. Water is also needed to add hydrogen to the oil-shale oil before it can be shipped to a conventional oil refinery. The largest deposit of oil shale in the United States is in western Colorado (the Green River Shale deposits), a dry region with no surplus water. The oil shale can be ground into a slurry and transported via pipeline to a more suitable pre-refining location.
Daistallia 2104
02-08-2006, 18:55
That you, Ellis Wyatt?
Farnhamia
02-08-2006, 19:01
Just stay the hell out of my state with your oil-sucking, derrick-building machinery. :rolleyes: And where are you going to ski when you've drained out all the oil and Colorado collapses down to sea-level? Did you think of that, hmm?
Drunk commies deleted
02-08-2006, 19:04
Just stay the hell out of my state with your oil-sucking, derrick-building machinery. :rolleyes: And where are you going to ski when you've drained out all the oil and Colorado collapses down to sea-level? Did you think of that, hmm?
They can ski in Vermont. Now fill up my car, damnit!
Llewdor
02-08-2006, 19:05
Anyone have some more recent news on this?
This sounds like SAGD, or steam-assisted gravity drainage. It's already being used extensively in Canada, which has about 1 trillion barrels of oil tied up in tar sands.
Deep Kimchi
02-08-2006, 19:05
Just stay the hell out of my state with your oil-sucking, derrick-building machinery. :rolleyes: And where are you going to ski when you've drained out all the oil and Colorado collapses down to sea-level? Did you think of that, hmm?

I wouldn't mind putting Boulder below sea level. The rest of the state (ok, take downtown Denver as well) is pretty nice comparatively.
Farnhamia
02-08-2006, 19:08
They can ski in Vermont. Now fill up my car, damnit!
Vermont? That's not snow, that's white ice. And 3000 feet is not a mountain. (Of course, what do I know, I've never skied in my life.) Why, the highest point in Vermont is only 1000 feet higher than the lowest point in Colorado (according to Wiki ... I didn't know the Vermont state flag had a picture of Stephen Colbert on it, though). :p
Farnhamia
02-08-2006, 19:11
I wouldn't mind putting Boulder below sea level. The rest of the state (ok, take downtown Denver as well) is pretty nice comparatively.
No, now, we need the People's Republic of Boulder to balance the Kingdom of Colorado Springs.
Deep Kimchi
02-08-2006, 19:15
No, now, we need the People's Republic of Boulder to balance the Kingdom of Colorado Springs.

Ah, but think of the energy we could recover.

If we put all the bullshit from Colorado Springs (they produce enough every day to light a small city) on a cart that runs downhill to Boulder, and use the kinetic energy from that to run a linear generator...
Farnhamia
02-08-2006, 19:22
Ah, but think of the energy we could recover.

If we put all the bullshit from Colorado Springs (they produce enough every day to light a small city) on a cart that runs downhill to Boulder, and use the kinetic energy from that to run a linear generator...
Hmm ... There are those unused railroad tracks running north-south along the Front Range ... could work.
United Chicken Kleptos
02-08-2006, 19:31
OILOILOILOILOILOILOILOILOILOILMINEALLMINE!!!!!

*grabs a shotgun and camps outside the oil site*
Minaris
02-08-2006, 19:37
OILOILOILOILOILOILOILOILOILOILMINEALLMINE!!!!!

*grabs a shotgun and camps outside the oil site*

**UFO crahes next to United Chicken. Floats back up and takes ALL the shale in Colorado.** Good thing I brought the UFO!
Kamsaki
02-08-2006, 19:54
OILOILOILOILOILOILOILOILOILOILMINEALLMINE!!!!!

*grabs a shotgun and camps outside the oil site*
Don't worry; the unilateral liberation force will be along shortly to lend a hand.
Minaris
02-08-2006, 20:01
Don't worry; the unilateral liberation force will be along shortly to lend a hand.

Too late. I took it all. Now I be rich! Oil at $45 per barrel! Now for a limited time (then I'll have to beam up some more).
Tactical Grace
02-08-2006, 20:03
Oil shale isn't oil. It's a mineral called Kerogen. It's basically rock with some organic matter which never got sufficiently heated and compressed to form oil.

Even the tar sands in Canada are a better investment. At least asphalt was oil once.

Oil shale is not going to happen.
Andaluciae
02-08-2006, 20:06
That you, Ellis Wyatt?
I see I'm not the only one who thought that when reading the article...
Carnivorous Lickers
02-08-2006, 20:20
Kerogen yields oil when heated though.
I think that was clearly stated in the article.
Deep Kimchi
02-08-2006, 20:25
Read all about it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale
Vetalia
02-08-2006, 20:41
The main problem with oil shale is the volatility of oil prices; unless oil were to remain at a real (not nominal) level of $40 or greater, the stuff would be useless and the projects would collapse. The major oil companies lost a ton of money on shale back in the 70's and 80's, so any production from these fields would have to be carefully managed to keep prices at a sustainable level. Oil shale can be produced, but it's not cheap or easy to do so. There's a lot of logistical and economic factors involved that make it a risky investment; perhaps if oil remains at its current real levels for several more years and stabilizes at these levels in the long term it will happen.

However, technology could change the investment picture significantly; if there were a technology developed that made it much easier and cheaper to produce petroleum from kerogen the oil shale might be viable at a much wider price range making the investment many times safer than it was.
Deep Kimchi
02-08-2006, 20:47
However, technology could change the investment picture significantly; if there were a technology developed that made it much easier and cheaper to produce petroleum from kerogen the oil shale might be viable at a much wider price range making the investment many times safer than it was.

Political situations can change things too.

Let's say, for example, that the various OPEC nations have all overstated their oil reserves (which they have, universally).

Now, they've all borrowed a lot of money on the basis of their oil reserves...

A significant inability to maintain production rates at predicted oil reserve levels could shatter the current market.

It would probably provoke global war, which also changes the economics.

And, if certain nations end up as contaminated radioactive ruins, we might have no choice but to use oil shale.
Tactical Grace
02-08-2006, 20:55
Kerogen yields oil when heated though.
I think that was clearly stated in the article.
Which is too optimistic to mention net energy yield.

It's easy to talk this stuff up and make money of speculation, I have yet to see anyone come up with a way to deliver.
Vetalia
02-08-2006, 20:56
Political situations can change things too.
Let's say, for example, that the various OPEC nations have all overstated their oil reserves (which they have, universally).Now, they've all borrowed a lot of money on the basis of their oil reserves...

OPEC's reserves are a mystery, to say the least. Kuwait's reserves are only half the official total; it's possible all of them could've overstated their reserves, or only a few, or just Kuwait.

A significant inability to maintain production rates at predicted oil reserve levels could shatter the current market. It would probably provoke global war, which also changes the economics.

I don't know; world oil production fell by nearly 4% per year during the late 1970's and didn't recover its 1978 level until 1993; there was no global war and the world economy didn't collapse or go to WWIII despite the worsening relations between the USSR and the US in the early 80's. This was also with energy intensity much higher than it is today and far less developed alternatives; I think the world economy would rather reduce demand and find alternatives than go to war over oil. There's too much to lose and too little to gain from such a scenario.

And, if certain nations end up as contaminated radioactive ruins, we might have no choice but to use oil shale.

For some reason, I just don't see the post-nuclear world needing much oil...I think it'll take a few centuries before we need much oil again.
WDGann
02-08-2006, 20:56
The main problem with oil shale is the volatility of oil prices; unless oil were to remain at a real (not nominal) level of $40 or greater, the stuff would be useless and the projects would collapse. The major oil companies lost a ton of money on shale back in the 70's and 80's, so any production from these fields would have to be carefully managed to keep prices at a sustainable level. Oil shale can be produced, but it's not cheap or easy to do so. There's a lot of logistical and economic factors involved that make it a risky investment; perhaps if oil remains at its current real levels for several more years and stabilizes at these levels in the long term it will happen.

However, technology could change the investment picture significantly; if there were a technology developed that made it much easier and cheaper to produce petroleum from kerogen the oil shale might be viable at a much wider price range making the investment many times safer than it was.

The US could impose import controls to keep the domestic price above $40. I don't think the OPEC countries are in the WTO, so it shouldn't be a problem.
Freelabia
02-08-2006, 20:57
Originally Posted by Daistallia 2104
That you, Ellis Wyatt?

I thought the same thing.
Vetalia
02-08-2006, 21:06
The US could impose import controls to keep the domestic price above $40. I don't think the OPEC countries are in the WTO, so it shouldn't be a problem.

A price floor would create a surplus of oil that could cause the price to collapse; the best thing to do would be to simply let the market work itself out rather than try and control the price. If oil goes below $40, then oil shale isn't needed; there's no reason to produce it if the world market deems conventional supplies adequate and demand tame enough for oil to fall below that threshold.

It's best to keep these more expensive resources in reserve for the times when they're really needed. Given that we will see world oil production peaking some time between 2010-2030, that oil might come in handy at that time rather than using it now when the market is well supplied.
Entropic Creation
02-08-2006, 21:22
It makes a good fallback position. While it may not be reasonable to go into full production now, it could be used in a small capacity for the moment. As it is economically viable at the moment, you could institute small scale production – which allows you to work out all the kinks and improve the process.

There will then be some facilities for production with an experienced pool of workers who know how to best exploit the resource. Where there to be any major disruptions, or the cost of production drops significantly through the improvements which are bound to be made with experience, production could then be scaled up to the new situation.

It looks like it would probably take almost a year for production to take off (given some setup time and that it took months for the well to start producing) but knowing that the resource will come online should reassure people.

While it is not a solution to all our oil needs, it is a good safety net.
Llewdor
02-08-2006, 22:17
The main problem with oil shale is the volatility of oil prices; unless oil were to remain at a real (not nominal) level of $40 or greater, the stuff would be useless and the projects would collapse. The major oil companies lost a ton of money on shale back in the 70's and 80's, so any production from these fields would have to be carefully managed to keep prices at a sustainable level. Oil shale can be produced, but it's not cheap or easy to do so. There's a lot of logistical and economic factors involved that make it a risky investment; perhaps if oil remains at its current real levels for several more years and stabilizes at these levels in the long term it will happen.
That was largely true of Canada's tar sands when production began, as well. And those companies lost money for decades. But they managed to reduce production costs to $9-12/bbl, and now they make a killing.

Oil shale requires some long-term investment.
Vetalia
02-08-2006, 22:29
That was largely true of Canada's tar sands when production began, as well. And those companies lost money for decades. But they managed to reduce production costs to $9-12/bbl, and now they make a killing.

Similar lessons could be drawn from Exxon's investment in deep water fields in Angola/Nigeria during the 80's; the conventional wisdom said oil was going to stay down for decades, but Exxon decided to take the risk and bet on oil prices 20 years in the future

Oil shale requires some long-term investment.

That's true; I think in the case of the oil shales the first investments will be a risky investment by a smaller producer rather than one of the bigger integrated oils. That's primarily dueto the fact that the integrated oils lost a huge amount of money on the projects in the 80's and will be reluctant to invest again even if prices remain high.
Empress_Suiko
02-08-2006, 23:10
Just stay the hell out of my state with your oil-sucking, derrick-building machinery. :rolleyes: And where are you going to ski when you've drained out all the oil and Colorado collapses down to sea-level? Did you think of that, hmm?


Since when would drilling for oil cause an entire landmass to drop below sea level?:rolleyes:
Farnhamia
02-08-2006, 23:13
Since when would drilling for oil cause an entire landmass to drop below sea level?:rolleyes:
It could happen, you don't know for sure. ;) And it got your attention, anyway. Besides, Kimchi suggested a great way to capitalize on it, if Boulder sinks down to sea level, then we use the difference in elevation between there and Colorado Springs to extract energy from fanatics in both places ... well there are still some details to be worked out.
Kyronea
02-08-2006, 23:57
I wouldn't mind putting Boulder below sea level. The rest of the state (ok, take downtown Denver as well) is pretty nice comparatively.
Hey, shut up. Boulder is a fantastic place.

As a Colorado citizen, I must say that I've always been against oil shale harvesting, if only due to the sheer destruction it will have on the environment around me. I love the mountains. I don't want them to turn into Houston.
Myrmidonisia
03-08-2006, 01:18
Just stay the hell out of my state with your oil-sucking, derrick-building machinery. :rolleyes: And where are you going to ski when you've drained out all the oil and Colorado collapses down to sea-level? Did you think of that, hmm?
We'll water-ski, that's what!
Daistallia 2104
03-08-2006, 14:51
I see I'm not the only one who thought that when reading the article...
I thought the same thing.

I always thought her idea of Colorado being a big industrial state was a bit wacky...