NationStates Jolt Archive

I don't want another anti-Israel or political thread. This thread is for facts and predicitions about the Military aspects of this war.

I predict that Syria will definitely become involved. Iran might also. If Syria becomes involved, they will end up in the same situation they have been in all past wars with Israel. They will lose. The same is true if Iran gets involved. Israel has taken on 7 nations at once before so 2 or 3 shouldn't be major. Especially considering that the IDF has continued to improve.

If Syria uses its AF, it will be a turkey shoot for the IAF. They faced off in 1982. The IAF scored 85 kills with 0 loses in air to air combat. (A few planes were lost to SAMs.) Syria was flying comparable aircraft. They had the newest MiGs at the time. It is likely the air battle would be lopsided once more. IAF has more F-15s now along wit E-2s to provide AWACS support. If Iran gets involved, it won't matter in the air. Iran's MiGs don't have the range to reach Israel. The Israeli F-15s can reach Iran OTOH. The only plane Iran has with the range is the F-14, but they only have a couple left flying. The ones flying are near useless as they don't have the Phoenix missile that really makes the Tomcat a fearsome fighter.

On the ground, Israel is strong. They have top of the line tanks like their Merkava IIIs they designed and built themselves. They are fearsome tanks. Syria's army would be massacred. Iran would put up a bigger fight if they moved their troops into Syria, but they can't do that as I doubt Iraq or Turkey would allow troop movements.

What worries me is if Israel gets attacked on all sides. They might unleash their nukes.

Syria won't attack Israel. Israel would attack Syria, that's how the diplomatic situation is at the moment.

Initially it would be the same as they're doing with Lebanon, ie air strikes and so on.

Syria would walk off to the UN and loudly proclaim its role as victim and gain the moral high ground.

That's all that matters. If Syria fights back, they'd get hurt, so they'll probably try the modern way, through diplomacy and mass media.

Not going to happen. Iran does things in its own sweet time, and is unlikely to throw away the lovely project it has going on in Iraq. And Syria isn't stupid. No jets, no helicopters, no tanks. As if the stuff left over from the 70s is going anywhere.

Talk of a wider war is wishful thinking, really. The nations themselves are not going to line up just to get shot down. They know they will get better results manipulating proxy forces.

What worries me is if Israel gets attacked on all sides. They might unleash their nukes.
They won't. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan will stay out of this conflict. Egypt has actually been helping Israel in the Gaza crisis.

Israel had their nukes during the 1973 war, and Israel didn't use them then. This is much less severe than the Yom Kippur War. Israel's nukes are only for if they are being overrun and are on the verge of defeat.

Not going to happen. Iran does things in its own sweet time, and is unlikely to throw away the lovely project it has going on in Iraq. And Syria isn't stupid. No jets, no helicopters, no tanks. As if the stuff left over from the 70s is going anywhere.

Talk of a wider war is wishful thinking, really. The nations themselves are not going to line up just to get shot down. They know they will get better results manipulating proxy forces.CNN is reporting Syria has said they will defend Hezbollah. I take that as them saying they will likely get involved. So far this is like 1982 all over again. The only difference is Iran has a hand in it.

In the event of war, it would likely involve Syria and Iran against Israel. The Jordainian government is too close to the US to ally with them, and the Gulf states along with Egypt are way more terrified of a nuclear Iran than they are of a mobilized Israel so they'll remain neutral or even act sympathetically to the US and Israel in exchange for secure oil exports through the Hormuz.

It's likely Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states would increase their oil production to compensate for Iran's loss to prevent a 1979-style crisis.

Israel has superior firepower, training, equipment, and logistics. The Arab states simply can't compete with Israel in military power or effectiveness, and their economies are sorely lagging Israel's which means they won't be able to mobilize as effectively or as long as the Israeli military. If Iran goes to war, it will be defeated and its economy will be annihilated along with Syria's; the losses to these two nations would be catastrophic and might even result in the collapse of the Iranian regime.

CNN is reporting Syria has said they will defend Hezbollah.
I would be surprised if they said any different.

I would be equally surprised if they actually followed up on it.

I would be surprised if they said any different.

I would be equally surprised if they actually followed up on it.
I hope you are right and this doesn't get worse.

What worries me is if Israel gets attacked on all sides. They might unleash their nukes.
It's not Israel and its nukes that worries me, but the possiblity of Iran finally "proving" it has nukes.

It's not Israel and its nukes that worries me, but the possiblity of Iran finally "proving" it has nukes.
They don't. :headbang:

They ran a couple of hundred cetrifuges in an experiment. Ooh, watch them increase the purity of uranium ore by 1%.

They are behind pretty much everyone else who has tried.

Israel's nukes are only for if they are being overrun and are on the verge of defeat.

I've heard that's rumored as the "Samson" option.


They don't. :headbang:

They ran a couple of hundred cetrifuges in an experiment. Ooh, watch them increase the purity of uranium ore by 1%.

They are behind pretty much everyone else who has tried.

Well with all that Uranium around there are plenty of supplies for Dirty bombs.

no lie, i honestly believe a nuke will go off some where in the middle east and i dont mean by the israel.

no lie, i honestly believe a nuke will go off some where in the middle east.
If Israel bombs Iran, then I don't think we will see that anytime soon. I'd like to see Iran get involved for the sole purpose that it would allow Israel to destroy the infrastructure used to manufacture a nuke. It would save millions of lives in the long run.

I can't see Syria or any other Arab states fighting Israel directly what is more likely is individual groups working together to attack Israel with the obvious but unable to prove backing of Arab governments. what is likely is hit and run attacks not so much by organized groups but regular Joe Arabs who receive weapons from various Anti-Israeli groups we may also expect mobs to form attacking poorly guarded Israeli positions with obvious results.

Of course I’m expecting new tactics in Guerrilla warfare to emerge should the Arab nations become actively involved perhaps something which may re-write the books entirely after all its not like there has been no time to prepare for this situation

why waste a billion dollar army on Israel when you can use your twenty dollar a month puppets ?

I bet that if push came to shove Israel would start pounding oil refineries and pipelines. In doing that, they'll get a lot more attention from powers outside the Middle East.

Im going to shock you here but I say in a week this whole thing goes away. There isnt going to be a larger war, Israel will drop a few bombs, get bored and go away. Yesterday I thought there might be something big starting but I really dont think its going to happen. Sorry to disappoint you but you will have to wait to kill all arabs for a bit longer.

Im going to shock you here but I say in a week this whole thing goes away.


Thats crazy talk. :rolleyes:

Thats crazy talk. :rolleyes:
yeah, just watch. In one week everything is going to be fine again.

Im going to shock you here but I say in a week this whole thing goes away. There isnt going to be a larger war, Israel will drop a few bombs, get bored and go away. Yesterday I thought there might be something big starting but I really dont think its going to happen. Sorry to disappoint you but you will have to wait to kill all arabs for a bit longer.

I agree. For all of the rhetoric, Iran and Syria benefit a lot more from the status quo than they ever would or could from a war; the regimes know that a stable Middle East and a healthy world economy stand to benefit them far more than a war that will ,at best, end in stalemate. Most likely it would result in total defeat for Iran and its allies. It'll die down and the situation will return to "normal". Whether that return to normalcy results in meaningful progress or a return to the heightened tensions and violence of the late 1990's depends entirely on the willingness of Israel and the Arab states to return to the bargaining table.

yeah, just watch. In one week everything is going to be fine again.

What? You mean the whole world isn't going to rip itself apart over violence in the Middle East? I built that bomb shelter in the basement just for this occasion!

I agree. For all of the rhetoric, Iran and Syria benefit a lot more from the status quo than they ever would or could from a war; the regimes know that a stable Middle East and a healthy world economy stand to benefit them far more than a war that will ,at best, end in stalemate. Most likely it would result in total defeat for Iran and its allies. It'll die down and the situation will return to "normal". Whether that return to normalcy results in meaningful progress or a return to the heightened tensions and violence of the late 1990's depends entirely on the willingness of Israel and the Arab states to return to the bargaining table.

My biggest concern is all the damage that has been done. Israel really did some damage, and I'm just wondering what will be done about that. *pretends to not know that nothing will be done*

I agree. For all of the rhetoric, Iran and Syria benefit a lot more from the status quo than they ever would or could from a war; the regimes know that a stable Middle East and a healthy world economy stand to benefit them far more than a war that will ,at best, end in stalemate. Most likely it would result in total defeat for Iran and its allies. It'll die down and the situation will return to "normal". Whether that return to normalcy results in meaningful progress or a return to the heightened tensions and violence of the late 1990's depends entirely on the willingness of Israel and the Arab states to return to the bargaining table.
True. The worst I see this getting is that Israel will reoccupy southern lebanon to deal with the rocket attacks.

My biggest concern is all the damage that has been done. Israel really did some damage, and I'm just wondering what will be done about that. *pretends to not know that nothing will be done*

Chances are, Israel will do nothing; ideally, they should try and create some kind of reconstruction/relief program combined with larger-scale economic aid to help revive Lebanon and then award further aid based upon progress in areas like economic liberalization, human rights, anti-terrorism efforts and so on.

True. The worst I see this getting is that Israel will reoccupy southern lebanon to deal with the rocket attacks.

That would be ugly.

Chances are, Israel will do nothing; ideally, they should try and create some kind of reconstruction/relief program combined with larger-scale economic aid to help revive Lebanon and then award further aid based upon progress in areas like economic liberalization, human rights, anti-terrorism efforts and so on.

I agree Israel will probably do nothing. I wonder how many new terrorists will come from this event? If Israel just left it alone, I bet Israel would be a lot less safe.

I wrote a paper not long ago about my beliefs on what would happen in the middle east. Ubelievably, they're unfolding almost exactly as I predicted them...which is scary, since I'm generally correct on these matters based on past experiance....


I'll try and dig it up or rewrite it if you all would like to see my opinion :)

... is that Israel will reoccupy southern lebanon to deal with the rocket attacks.Actually.. I would like to see that.

Actually.. I would like to see that.
Really? Cause I wouldnt, I wouldnt like that at all really. Israel creates occupation far too often. If they didnt, they wouldnt have the attacks they face. So if they do that, many more of their people will die until they learn they cant oppress people without facing consquences.

Israel won't have to re-occupy Lebanon. They will send in a division strength ground assault to sweep and destroy launching areas and destroy the weapons caches. Israel is probably doing a good job on the rocket launch sites with artillery. I say this because Israel has counter-battery RADARs which pinpoint the point of origin of launches. In less than a minute, they can have a bunch of shells falling on the area.

Once they take the rockets out, Israel can pull out. Israel needs to try to make sure Hezbollah can't be rearmed.

If Israel bombs Iran, then I don't think we will see that anytime soon. I'd like to see Iran get involved for the sole purpose that it would allow Israel to destroy the infrastructure used to manufacture a nuke. It would save millions of lives in the long run.


sorry i edited...i dont think isreal will nuke...simply because they dont want to loose the little internation support they have.

If Iran gets involved than many countries (or maybe just the US) will see this as the legitimacy for attack that they missed in Iraq and go right for the jugular.

It's not Israel and its nukes that worries me, but the possiblity of Iran finally "proving" it has nukes.
Iran certainly does not have them. No nation would ever demonstrate their nuclear power first by using it as a weapon. They always detonate a few test bombs first.

Israel needs to try to make sure Hezbollah can't be rearmed.

I can't see any possible way Israel could stop the flow of arms to terrorists

Israel is fighting a militia, fighting a militia is harder than fighting an organized army.

Why isn't Israel attacking by land? Because it's useless against militias.

And they're just damaging Libanon with their air attacks.
Needless to say, their war with Hizbollah can last for Years. Israel will have a hard time, a very very hard time.

Does anyone realize that if the Middle East blows up more the Stock Market is going to go down even further?

Does anyone realize that if the Middle East blows up more the Stock Market is going to go down even further?
OH NOES! MONEY LOSS!

OH NOES! MONEY LOSS!

Kinda tends to happen when oil prices start to rise and if the Mid-East blows up in another war, that is precisely what is going to happen.

Kinda tends to happen when oil prices start to rise and if the Mid-East blows up in another war, that is precisely what is going to happen.
Yes, well done. You have learned from history.

On the other hand, a loss of money is not going to be as tragic, all things considered, as the loss of life which I reckon this conflict is going to cause.

Yes, well done. You have learned from history.

I guess you didn't notice that oil prices are at 80$ a barrel due to all sorts of things including the Mid East Crisis?

On the other hand, a loss of money is not going to be as tragic, all things considered, as the loss of life which I reckon this conflict is going to cause.

Any war is tragic.

Yes, well done. You have learned from history.

On the other hand, a loss of money is not going to be as tragic, all things considered, as the loss of life which I reckon this conflict is going to cause.

What I think the decline in the stock market shows is that war in the Middle East will affect everyone negatively, no matter how much they want to pretend it won't

I havn't read this whole thread, so I don't know if this is has been said yet. I believe what will end up happening here is a Korea-like situation. The US is in a cold war-type stand off with Iran. Now we have two armies fighting, one of which is usually backed by Iran, the other commonly backed by the US. As you can see it is very similar to the situation in Korea some 50 years ago.

Im going to shock you here but I say in a week this whole thing goes away. There isnt going to be a larger war, Israel will drop a few bombs, get bored and go away. Yesterday I thought there might be something big starting but I really dont think its going to happen. Sorry to disappoint you but you will have to wait to kill all arabs for a bit longer.
Just because Israel stops dropping bombs, it doesn't mean that Hezbollah will. They're going to want the last say in this.

Israel needs to disarm/destroy hezbollah and hamas by whatever means. Syria will stay in the background this time, the a** whipping Israel gave them the last two times will keep them there. Iran can't hit Israel, except with missiles. Israel can hit Iran with bombers and attack planes. Israel's worst enemy here is hezbollah, with the backing of Syria and Iran.

for all those that want Israel to negotiate. how do you reach a compromise with a group that wants nothing except to wipe you out of existence?

Israel needs to disarm/destroy hezbollah and hamas by whatever means.
I disagree. I think that there is to much collateral damage in this case.I think they should find some other way, bombing Beirut isn't very effective. As far as hamas goes, I don't think that they are a large threat here. Violonce has gone down in Gaza since they took power.

I disagree. I think that there is to much collateral damage in this case.I think they should find some other way, bombing Beirut isn't very effective. As far as hamas goes, I don't think that they are a large threat here. Violonce has gone down in Gaza since they took power.

What news do you watch? Don't you know that due to violence FROM GAZA that Israel is BACK IN GAZA? Violence gone down my foot.

I disagree. I think that there is to much collateral damage in this case.I think they should find some other way, bombing Beirut isn't very effective. As far as hamas goes, I don't think that they are a large threat here. Violonce has gone down in Gaza since they took power.

sure violence has gone down in Gaza, but rocket attacks out of Gaza have gone up

What news do you watch? Don't you know that due to violence FROM GAZA that Israel is BACK IN GAZA? Violence gone down my foot.
I have actually been cut off from communication for a while. I didn't know any of this was going on until yesterday. I am just using previous knowlage from a few months ago.

Does anyone realize that if the Middle East blows up more the Stock Market is going to go down even further?

That's why you go short and buy defensive stocks.:)

However, the stock market's entering its bear phase about now so it will go down regardless of the situation in the Middle East or oil prices. The bull has just been going on for too long and the market's getting tired so a reversal is in the works.

They won't. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan will stay out of this conflict. Egypt has actually been helping Israel in the Gaza crisis.

Israel had their nukes during the 1973 war, and Israel didn't use them then. This is much less severe than the Yom Kippur War. Israel's nukes are only for if they are being overrun and are on the verge of defeat.

i do think it would be kind of stupid for israel (or anyone) to use their nukes on a neighboring country, seeing how it would create a fallout that may travel to your own country. and will have serious affects on your citizens.

i do think it would be kind of stupid for israel (or anyone) to use their nukes on a neighboring country, seeing how it would create a fallout that may travel to your own country. and will have serious affects on your citizens.
I agree. That is why Israel will only use her nukes if she is going to be defeated. The idea is to make sure the enemy knows that if Israel goes down, then they go down too.

I can't see any possible way Israel could stop the flow of arms to terrorists
If every road, airport, and seaportis blocked or destroyed. THen they can't be rearmed. That is why Israel is hitting bridges, blockading Lebanon, and hit the airport.

They're probably slowing down the flow of arms, but probably creating hundreds more willing to fight them.

They're probably slowing down the flow of arms, but probably creating hundreds more willing to fight them.
If they don't have arms, they can't fight. If Israel wants to truly stop the arms flow, they need to take out Syria and Iran. The rockets in the Haifa attack were from Syria and the missile that struck the ship was Iranian.

Just because Israel stops dropping bombs, it doesn't mean that Hezbollah will. They're going to want the last say in this.
I doubt it

If they don't have arms, they can't fight.

I'm sure you don't need my help to think of a situation where this was untrue.

I doubt it

I guess you haven't paid any attention at all to any conflicts in the mideast.

I guess you haven't paid any attention at all to any conflicts in the mideast.
no, I have but I just think both sides will get tried of fighting and go away very soon.

no, I have but I just think both sides will get tried of fighting and go away very soon.

Doubtful.

If they don't have arms, they can't fight. If Israel wants to truly stop the arms flow, they need to take out Syria and Iran. The rockets in the Haifa attack were from Syria and the missile that struck the ship was Iranian.
So, what are you trying to say here? Only Israel is allowed to have arms to defend herself?

So, what are you trying to say here? Only Israel is allowed to have arms to defend herself?
Militaries are allowed to have arms. Terrorist groups are illegal and shouldn't have arms. Are you that dense?

Militaries are allowed to have arms. Terrorist groups are illegal and shouldn't have arms. Are you that dense?
In regards to what is happening in Lebanon, then Israel shouldn't have any arms either?

The IDF will viciously and savagely rape any middle east military that threatens it, whether it is Hezbollah or Syria. They've proven it time and time again.

So, what are you trying to say here? Only Israel is allowed to have arms to defend herself?

Because stuffing explosives up a donkey's anus and sending it into a crowded israeli market is for suckas.