NationStates Jolt Archive

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5130680.stm

The Bromley and Blaenau Gwent by-elections were held yesterday, and the results show that Labour have a major fight on there hands to regains lost support.

Blaenau Gwent used to be one of the safest Labour seats, but they lost it at the last election to an independent candidate. His death led to the by-election yesterday, where another independent candidate stopped Labour taking back the seat, with a majority of just under 2500 (majority at 2005 election was over 9000).

In the Bromley by-election - one of the safest Tory seats - the Tories held the seat with a majority of just over 600 over the Liberal Democrats. While this may be bad enough for the Tories, it was worse news for Labour as they finished fourth, 400 votes behind the UKIP candidate.

Good for the Lib Dems, I guess, as they saw a massive surge in their support in Bromley. But it seems that David Cameron's leadership isn't convincing people, and is actually driving people away from the Tory party. The next general election could be interesting.

And here was me thinking people cared about British politics.

And here was me thinking people cared about British politics.We do. It's just not as outrageously funny as USian politics.

And here was me thinking people cared about British politics.
I actually do, but I think it's a bit premature to be thinking that Labour is really in trouble.

They are weak, that's for sure. But the LibDems aren't strong enough to be able to win a decisive majority.

We do. It's just not as outrageously funny as USian politics.
Oh, I don't know. PMQs can be rather amusing...



I'll get me coat.

I actually do, but I think it's a bit premature to be thinking that Labour is really in trouble.

They are weak, that's for sure. But the LibDems aren't strong enough to be able to win a decisive majority.
Not really in trouble? They finished fourth behind a fringe party even when the Tories suffered a massive loss? The result in Wales wasn't so bad, as they cut the majority from 9000 to 2500 - that's pretty good, even if they didn't win the seat.

As a Lib Dem member, it was a bit disappointing that we didn't win either seat as we're normally very good at winning by-elections. But hey ho, we still gained votes and demonstrated the weaknesses in the two leading parties. The days of a two party system are creeping towards an end methinks.

We won't win the next general election, it's very hard to say what will happen. I suspect the Tories may just sneak through, and perhaps Lib Dems will be the primary opposition. We shall see.

As a Lib Dem member, it was a bit disappointing that we didn't win either seat as we're normally very good at winning by-elections. But hey ho, we still gained votes and demonstrated the weaknesses in the two leading parties. The days of a two party system are creeping towards an end methinks.

We won't win the next general election, it's very hard to say what will happen. I suspect the Tories may just sneak through, and perhaps Lib Dems will be the primary opposition. We shall see.
It wasn't particularly surprising you didn't win Blaenau Gwent, as it's a Labour stronghold. The only reason it's held by an independent is because the previous incumbent was a former Labour man who resigned. The new guy was basically running on a 'left wing but not Labour' ticket, and the majority came tumbling down.

I'd say the Lib Dems can be proud of their showing in Bromley - making the Tories sweat on it quite so much in a constituency that they should be holding comfortably. The Lib Dems could do well out of dissatifaction among traditional Labour and Conservative voters.

We do. It's just not as outrageously funny as USian politics.

When have you ever seen an american politician punch a crowd member? Spend loads of money, cheat on his wife and still stay in power?

When have you ever seen an american politician punch a crowd member? Spend loads of money, cheat on his wife and still stay in power?

2/3 isn't bad for a Kennedy.

P.S. Have you no shame?

When have you ever seen an american politician punch a crowd member? Spend loads of money, cheat on his wife and still stay in power?Surprisingly, I haven't seen it yet. I'm sure it's just a matter of time though - and unlike British MPs, if a USian does it, I'm sure he'll be hailed as a saint.

Surprisingly, I haven't seen it yet. I'm sure it's just a matter of time though - and unlike British MPs, if a USian does it, I'm sure he'll be hailed as a saint.

Well, I can't help but think that it did increase Prescott's popularity.

Hell, I respected him for it.

Mind you, it provided an interesting comparison to the US. Here, someone throws something at a politician, he hits 'em back. Over there, Secret Service throw themselves onto the politician. ;)

The 2009 election will see a record low turnout and a 1992-style WTF finish with recounts to make sure.

Then the Liberal Democrats will hand New Labour their wish list and tell them to set up their PCs on the floor so they can type kneeling.

The 2009 election will see a record low turnout and a 1992-style WTF finish with recounts to make sure.

Then the Liberal Democrats will hand New Labour their wish list and tell them to set up their PCs on the floor so they can type kneeling.

You really think so?

And here was me thinking people cared about British politics.
Sorry, wasn't online.

What I find interesting about this is the backlash against the Tories by the Tories. In other words, it doesn't seem like non-Tory voters have switched to Blair Mk II, which is the main argument for selecting him as leader, while the core Tory support has been alienated by him and seems to have jumped ship as well.

So, if this is the case, just who exactly is Cameron appealing to?

Sorry, wasn't online.

What I find interesting about this is the backlash against the Tories by the Tories. In other words, it doesn't seem like non-Tory voters have switched to Blair Mk II, which is the main argument for selecting him as leader, while the core Tory support has been alienated by him and seems to have jumped ship as well.

So, if this is the case, just who exactly is Cameron appealing to?
They do seem to have failed on all counts, don't they?

They've lost votes to both the Lib Dems and UKIP. Labour supporters are also going to the Lib Dems...

There could really be three main parties after the next election, with Labour, Tory and Lib Dem all having around 30% of the vote. Admittedly, the Lib Dems may not have as many seats as their 30% should warrant, but they could be seen as a genuine alternative to Labour or the Conservatives.

You really think so?
Yes. Seriously, that is how it's shaping up. Turnout is reaching levels not seen since universal suffrage was granted, the current milestone is 1918, after a million men got slaughtered. New Labour is going to get owned at the next General Election, because the people remaining motivated to vote are those who have come to despise them. Their reluctant supporters are abstaining in ever-larger numbers.

The 1992 election resulted in a 5-year Conservative Party government with a parliamentary majority of two. Everyone expected the unreformed Labour Party to win, but the Conservatives managed to cling on to office for a total of 18 years, not 13. Note I say office, not power.

I think it's decline for New Labour from now on. The new cabinet are nameless faceless mediocrities, and they have run out of ideas.

Sadly I don't think that any party is in a position to challenge Labour, at the moment, although they are running the country into the ground and turning it into a draconian state without a national health service.

All three parties are quite apalling at the moment, but by virtue of being the ones already in power (and being the socialist party, with the broad appeal to majority of people in lower income brackets) I feel that Labour will be here for a while. What worries me though is that without effective, legitimate opposition and the increasingly prejudiced views that are being promoted by Tony BLiar and his master's war on terrorism, the next party in power could just as likely be the BNP. And Labour are currently establishing a set of legislative tools to allow them to be quite controlling of the population (ID cards, holding people without charge, govt interference with the courts). So, with all these tools in place and the BNP seeming just as likely to win in local elections as anyone else... where could that leave the country in 25 years?

Yes. Seriously, that is how it's shaping up. Turnout is reaching levels not seen since universal suffrage was granted, the current milestone is 1918, after a million men got slaughtered. New Labour is going to get owned at the next General Election, because the people remaining motivated to vote are those who have come to despise them. Their reluctant supporters are abstaining in ever-larger numbers.
Maybe their reluctant supporters will be motivated to vote by the prospect of otherwise having the Tories in power. Expect a massive anti-Tory campaign next time round - by which I mean on an even greater scale than usual.

The 1992 election resulted in a 5-year Conservative Party government with a parliamentary majority of two. Everyone expected the unreformed Labour Party to win, but the Conservatives managed to cling on to office for a total of 18 years, not 13. Note I say office, not power.

I think it's decline for New Labour from now on. The new cabinet are nameless faceless mediocrities, and they have run out of ideas.
The same could happen for Labour in 2009 or 2010. People might be willing to give Blair's successor a chance to prove himself.

They do seem to have failed on all counts, don't they?

They've lost votes to both the Lib Dems and UKIP. Labour supporters are also going to the Lib Dems...

There could really be three main parties after the next election, with Labour, Tory and Lib Dem all having around 30% of the vote. Admittedly, the Lib Dems may not have as many seats as their 30% should warrant, but they could be seen as a genuine alternative to Labour or the Conservatives.
Well, I wouldn't go that far - the Lib Dems have a fiercely organised team when it comes to by-elections, and although everyone has known for years how strong they are at these times, the other two parties still haven't got their act together and adopted similar tactics.

To be honest, I think all three main parties are going to struggle to build on their current share of the vote; they're just far too damned similar. So, we'll probably end up with a 35%/35%/25% situation, with an ever falling voter turnout and more people voting for tiny parties in protest.

It's a bit sad really, but it's the pendulum of politics; we had the post war left wing consensus, followed by the charged right wing 1980s, followed by this new right consensus. I happen to believe that politics is going to be dull for a few more years until the pendulum swings the other way, and we get the Thatcher of the left to charge things up again.

When have you ever seen an american politician punch a crowd member? Spend loads of money, cheat on his wife and still stay in power?
Well, if you're using the European definition of 'American' as everyone on this side of the pond, I would point you at former Liberal leader Pierre Trudeau. :)

Quite simply, it is evident thatBritish politics at present is analagous to those of the 1992-1997 government, albeit with entirely reversed roles. Labour appear determined to implode in as tortuously long and self-destructive manner as possible, whilst the Tory party is gravitating towards the demagoguic centre.

I believe my personal feelings upon both David Cameron, and the reform of the conservative party, have been long established. Moron.

Maybe their reluctant supporters will be motivated to vote by the prospect of otherwise having the Tories in power. Expect a massive anti-Tory campaign next time round - by which I mean on an even greater scale than usual.
We both know it is not going to work. They have spent a decade playing the Tory card. They are going to keep repeating it for years to come? Come on. By the time the Conservative party lost all credibility, references to the Winter of Discontent provoked nothing but hearty laughter.

The same could happen for Labour in 2009 or 2010. People might be willing to give Blair's successor a chance to prove himself.
I doubt it will come down to that. I think it is going to be a recount finish with the winner in office, not power, with a margin of a dozen seats. The identity of the winning party will not be relevant, as in either case the Liberal Democrats will be able to cherry-pick what legislation passes.

It looks like it was a mistake for Labour to become New Labour, and to discard its socialist roots. Isn't that the crux of the biscuit here?

It looks like it was a mistake for Labour to become New Labour, and to discard its socialist roots. Isn't that the crux of the biscuit here?

Possibly. Labour could never have supplanted and ousted the Tory party had the "clause 4" moment, and its concurrencies, not occurred. The issue is more the extent to which New Labour has digressed from traditional labour policies, not that it has done so in itself.

We both know it is not going to work. They have spent a decade playing the Tory card. They are going to keep repeating it for years to come? Come on. By the time the Conservative party lost all credibility, references to the Winter of Discontent provoked nothing but hearty laughter.


I doubt it will come down to that. I think it is going to be a recount finish with the winner in office, not power, with a margin of a dozen seats. The identity of the winning party will not be relevant, as in either case the Liberal Democrats will be able to cherry-pick what legislation passes.
The proof will be in the pudding...

The proof will be in the pudding...
Yes, it will, but the pudding is at the bottom of the valley, not behind a false summit.

Yes, it will, but the pudding is at the bottom of the valley, not behind a false summit.
I was hoping the pudding would be in the face of John Prescott, just to see what he'd do.

http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/Politics/Pix/pictures/2001/05/17/prescott3.jpg

I was hoping the pudding would be in the face of John Prescott, just to see what he'd do.
He'd eat it.

And ask for another.

It would be a real English stushey if Labour held onto power because of seats gained in Scotland. What a laugh that would be ;) .

You know what I think.. vote LCA, at least they are sure about their policies.

Liasia']You know what I think.. vote LCA, at least they are sure about their policies.
Who?

Who?
Legalise-cannabis-alliance
ftw!

These were by-elections. As such they are no indicator of anything. By-elections are notorious for throwing up strange results in the UK.

What odds on a hung parliament I wonder. The Lib Dems might be vital in determining the next govt. And in seeing the concessions to them each party is prepared to offer.