NationStates Jolt Archive

Turned out to be full of shit, huh? Or is it too early?

I think it was always going to be one of those things that if it did get off the ground then it would have been pretty nasty but if it didn't then noone's worried. At least that's how I interpreted it. Like the spokesman said 'It'll kill some where between 5 people and 150 million people'. Having said that it was overhyped.

It was ridiculous media hype. I don't pay any of that alarmist bullshit any mind. Now, if the surgeon general started authorising quaritines, that'd be a whole other story.
Edit: I can't be arsed to spell correctly at 4:30 in the morning.

Still too early. There has been reported cases in Asia and Asia Minor about it jumping to humans so...

It was ridiculous media hype. I don't pay any of that alarmist bullshit any mind. Now, if the surgeon general started authorising quaritines, that'd be a whole other story.
Edit: I can't be arsed to spell correctly at 4:30 in the morning.
Yeah, at little bit of media hype and since no "jumping species" and then "human to human" has occured (yet!) it's not a big deal.

You call it alarmist, I call it informing the public (sometimes you need to shout to get heard...).

When the surgeon general authorizes quarantines it's usually way too late to do anything against the avian bird flu.

The media hype did have some usefulness to it, though - the government (at least here) has looked into buying more vaccine which they definitely wouldn't have done without that much news coverage.

That's another story that disappeared right out of the papers, news etc. Everyone was expecting people to drop dead in the streets and nothing happened. Although noone ever thinks about the decimation of bird populations which is actually happening rather than the highly possible spread through humans which we're all still waiting on.

I caught bird flu.

I knew it was bird flu because I had an urge to go out and buy shoes and then couldn't park properly.

I caught bird flu.

I knew it was bird flu because I had an urge to go out and buy shoes and then couldn't park properly.


Now that's japes.

Just wait for the next flu season, and the hype will be back.
And that'll keep up a few years, untill people are so desensitized to the hype, that when a pandemic does break out, people can't be arsed to take precautions.

media's lost interest.

parents were telling me about a radio interview they listened to in which some doctor bloke was saying its not a matter of 'if' but 'when' avian flu mutates and can spread between humans. but that could be next week, next year, or 200 years...

there never really was such a threat really as there are probably hundereds, if not thousands of viruses and diseases that are similarly 'not-dangerous-yet-but-could-be'... the media just ran away with themselves.


still, i hope the government is busy stockpiling vaccines...

still, i hope the government is busy stockpiling vaccines...
So do I!!!

Turned out to be full of shit, huh? Or is it too early?

Just like SARS (as I predicted).
Another attempt of mother nature to thwart our population problem failed.

It probably sold a load of newspapers, and that's all that was needed.

media's lost interest.

parents were telling me about a radio interview they listened to in which some doctor bloke was saying its not a matter of 'if' but 'when' avian flu mutates and can spread between humans. but that could be next week, next year, or 200 years...

there never really was such a threat really as there are probably hundereds, if not thousands of viruses and diseases that are similarly 'not-dangerous-yet-but-could-be'... the media just ran away with themselves.

still, i hope the government is busy stockpiling vaccines...I don't, as they will be useless by the time the virus mutates to be able to jump human to human. just like how the normal flu vaccine is different each year.

What governments have to do is buy vaccine 'futures', that is, if they virus does mutate in such a way then then the laboratory will drop what it is currently doing and start producing a set amount of flu vaccines for the government.

However, the news hype has caused a distortion in supply and demand. I think currently the laboratories would struggle to fill the orders that the governments of the world has ordered. What is worse is that all the vaccines will be going to rich countries. But the vaccines, on a pandemic scale would be much more useful in halting the virus if they were used where the outbreak first started. Which is statistically more likely to be in SE Asia due to the amount of chicken farms there.

So, when the virus does eventually make the jump the scenario is that many rich governments will begin stockpiling the vaccine, but will never be able to stockpile enough for their whole population, whilst the virus spreads uninhibited across the rest of the globe.

With regards to the bird flu's deadliness. Well it has so far killed over 50% of the people it has infected (about 125 people have died so far). So yeah, it's pretty deadly. It's deadliness if further increased by the fact that the flu viruses are normally airborne and have an incubation period of 1-2 days.

Flu viruses also mutate rapidly and can swap DNA, so all that needs to happen is for H5N1 to come into contact with a human-to-human strain of flu and the virus could easily become pandemic.

So all in all it is has a huge potential to kill many people. All that needs to happen is the right mutation. This may or may not happen, but due to the nature of flu viruses this is more likely to happen than not. The media just got bored because it didn't happen quickly enough for them.

The bird flu was turned into a Jamaican dance at the dancehalls:

Bird Flu 1 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdQtjBJOMmY&search=bird%20flu%20dancehall)

Bird Flu 2 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRrQbRH-fyE&search=bird%20flu%20dancehall)

The second one is pretty good. :D

It's all wrong! They were warning us about bird POO! Beware, the mutating poo!

Another attempt of mother nature to thwart our population problem failed.

It realised it couldn't win and decided it should try something else.

Media has lost interest but people are still dying from it.
Do not be complacent, mother nature can strike at any time.

It realised it couldn't win and decided it should try something else.

We're too advanced for it. The only thing that will stop us our rate of growth (both technological and "populational".)

We're too advanced for it. The only thing that will stop us our rate of growth (both technological and "populational".)

No we're not too advanced. The current bird flu is disturbingly close to the 1918 Spanish flu - since it's a bird flu we have very little natural immunity. Heck, we can't even control the "normal" flus coming out of China yet.

The only reason the media lost interest is because there wasn't an endemic in Europe or North America. There is an H5N1 epizootic in Asia already, and although human infections are more common from animal-human contact, there are cases of human-human infection (though not beyond one person). The H5N1 virus IS continuing to become more potent, as seen in an increasing number of birds, and the human cases in Vietnam and Thailand are also showing resistance to antiviral medications. As soon as the virus becomes more capable of causing disease in humans or when the incidence rate increases (and a pandemic scare begins) it will be back in the news.

WHO updated this map 13.06.2006. This map shows areas reporting confirmed occurence of H5N1 avian influenza in poultry and wild birds since January 2006 (http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/Files/Maps/Global_SubNat_H5N1inAnimalConfirmedSince2006_20060613.png)
This map shows the confirmed cases of H5N1 cases in humans since Jan. 2006 (http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/Files/Maps/Global_H5N1inHumanSINCE2006_20060530.png)

It fizzled just like most media scare stories.

I think the Bird Flu serves as a media wildcard in the United States too. When ratings drop because the news dwells on one subject too long, such as unpopular politicians (Dubya's low approval ratings), or when there is no good news, they can pull out the Bird Flu wildcard and try to get ratings up.

The only reason the media lost interest is because there wasn't an endemic in Europe or North America. There is an H5N1 epizootic in Asia already, and although human infections are more common from animal-human contact, there are cases of human-human infection (though not beyond one person). The H5N1 virus IS continuing to become more potent, as seen in an increasing number of birds, and the human cases in Vietnam and Thailand are also showing resistance to antiviral medications. As soon as the virus becomes more capable of causing disease in humans or when the incidence rate increases (and a pandemic scare begins) it will be back in the news.

WHO updated this map 13.06.2006. This map shows areas reporting confirmed occurence of H5N1 avian influenza in poultry and wild birds since January 2006 (http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/Files/Maps/Global_SubNat_H5N1inAnimalConfirmedSince2006_20060613.png)
This map shows the confirmed cases of H5N1 cases in humans since Jan. 2006 (http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/Files/Maps/Global_H5N1inHumanSINCE2006_20060530.png)

Still pretending to be a doctor, eh? :rolleyes:

There are more important issues to worry about. Gays are trying to get married people!

There are more important issues to worry about. Gays are trying to get married people!

Oh shit! I'm a married person. Time to run for the hills!:D

Donald Rumsfeld owned stock in the company that makes tamiflu.

Bird flu was hyped.

Company sold alot of tamiflu

Donald Rumsfeld's stock skyrocketed

Donald cashed out

Noone cares about the bird flu anymore.

Donald Rumsfeld owned stock in the company that makes tamiflu.

Bird flu was hyped.

Company sold alot of tamiflu

Donald Rumsfeld's stock skyrocketed

Donald cashed out

Noone cares about the bird flu anymore.

European Union (EU) health experts have endorsed a European Commission proposal to extend the import ban on Romanian live poultry, poultry meat and poultry products, said the commission on Tuesday. The import ban will now remain in place until Dec. 31, 2006, subject to review. At the same time, the ban will now include Brasov county and the four surrounding counties of Covasna, Harghita, Mures and Sibiu in central Romania. The proposed decision was drafted following several confirmed cases and further suspected cases of highly pathogenic bird flu in poultry flocks in Brasov over the weekend.

The H5N1 bird flu virus has appeared in dead birds found in Cernavoda, southeastern Romania. A laboratory in Bucharest confirmed the H5N1 type bird flu virus was found in samples taken from Cernavoda, Romania Agriculture Minister George Flutur said. There will be no exits or entries to the only power plant in the country to prevent the spread of illness, Flutur added. Disinfection systems will be implemented at entry-exits points to the city in the central circuit, yet the nuclear reactor will go on working, reporters said. Local officials say that part of the nuclear central employees may be accommodated on a campus near the factory.

The outbreak occurred in a farm in Hetian County in the Xinjiang region, the official said late Wednesday, citing the Agriculture Ministry. A government agricultural officer prepared to vaccinate chickens in Medan, North Sumatra, and Indonesia. Indonesia's health minister says she doesn't know what else she can do to raise public awareness about the dangers of bird flu, which has killed 37 people in her nation with no signs of slowing. There have been no reports of when the birds became sick or how many were infected. Tests confirmed the H5N1 virus. Examination stations have been set up in the area to disinfect vehicles, it said.

Pigs have tested positive for bird flu in the same village on Indonesia's Sumatra island where five people have been confirmed infected with the H5N1 avian influenza virus, a minister said on Thursday. The case involving up to seven family members, six of whom have died, has raised alarm around the world because authorities cannot rule out human-to-human transmission. But the World Health Organisation and Indonesian health officials had been frustrated by the lack of evidence pointing to a source of the virus, usually infected poultry. The WHO confirmed on Wednesday that five members of the family had contracted H5N1 and tests on a sixth were pending. Officials had said earlier that on-the-spot testing of various animals living around Kubu Simbelang village in North Sumatra province had given negative results for avian influenza.

However, Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyantono told reporters on Thursday the pig samples from the village had been brought to a leading animal research centre on Java island, and scientists there found a positive result for bird flu. "After we brought them to Bogor, the serology test found positive results. From 11 pig samples, 10 are positive. Reconfirmation testings are still underway," he said, but did not specify the H5N1 virus. Bogor is a West Java city where a veterinarian institute is located. Clusters of human infections are worrying because they indicate that the virus might be mutating into a form that is easily transmissible among humans. That, experts say, could spark a pandemic in which millions might die. For the moment, the virus is mainly a disease in birds and is hard for humans to catch. The minister's comments are also likely to concern health officials. Pigs can act as mixing vessels in which human and bird flu viruses can swap genes, leading to a strain that can easily infect people and pass from person to person.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24/05/2006

A cluster of seven human bird-flu cases in Indonesia may have been caused by multiple person-to-person transmission, the World Health Organization (WHO) said Tuesday.The apparent infection chain among an extended family in North Sumatra began with a woman who is believed to have passed on the H5N1 to relatives who were with her "in a small room" when she was sick and coughing, a WHO statement said. The woman's 10-year-old nephew subsequently got bird flu and is considered a possible source of infection for her brother, who was "closely involved in caring for his son," WHO said. The three people are among six family members who have died since May 4. "All confirmed cases in the cluster can be directly linked to close and prolonged exposure to a patient during a phase of severe illness," a WHO statement said. Human-to-human transmission "cannot be ruled out," though a possible alternative source of exposure is still being investigated, WHO said. Indonesia is second only to Vietnam in human cases and deaths in the current outbreak of bird flu. The disease's spread has raised fears that the virus could mutate to spread easily among humans, threatening a pandemic with millions of infections. WHO said there is no evidence of "efficient human-to-human transmission" in the cluster of cases in Indonesia's Kubu Sembelang village, a reference to the fact that the infections appear to have happened at close quarters.

Local tests have confirmed an Indonesian child from the city of Bandung died of bird flu, a senior health ministry official said on Thursday. Local results on bird flu cases are not considered definitive and need confirmation from the World Health Organisation. I Nyoman Kandun, director-general of communicable disease control, told Reuters local tests have found one of two siblings admitted to hospital earlier this week in the West Java capital of Bandung was a positive H5N1 case. "The younger one is positive. We are looking into the other one," he said. The younger sibling, a 10-year old girl, died on Tuesday. World attention is now focussed on another Indonesian family after the WHO confirmed seven members from Kubu Simbelang village in North Sumatra province were infected with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. It is the largest known bird flu cluster since the disease re-appeared in Asia in 2003 and the WHO says limited human-to-human contact between family members might have occurred. International and local health officials say there is no evidence the virus had mutated in the Kubu Simbelang cluster case. But the case has baffled experts because no definitive source of infection has been found. H5N1 remains difficult for humans to catch, but experts fear it could evolve into a form passes easily from human to human, causing a pandemic that could kill millions.

The Health Bureau of Shenzhen City in south China's Guangdong Province on Tuesday reported a suspected case of human infection of bird flu. The 31-year-old man surnamed Jiang started to show symptoms of painful back, fever and cough on June 3. He was admitted to the Shenzhen People's Hospital on June 9. The patient is now in critical condition. The Shenzhen Center of Diseases Control has tested samples of the patient to be positive of H5N1 virus nucleic acid. The Guangdong provincial health bureau has reported the case to the Ministry of Health for verification. The patient was transferred to Donghu Hospital in the city on Tuesday for advanced treatment. His body temperature was measured at 40 degrees Celsius on Monday. Secretary of the Shenzhen Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China Li Hongzhong on Tuesday announced a second-degree emergency precaution scheme against bird flu in the city. Medical staff are disinfecting all possible contaminated places in the city. Jiang, a cargo truck driver, had no contacts with birds before the disease. However, his wife bought a live-slaughtered chicken from a local market two weeks ago, and cooked it for dinner for five family members, including Jiang. None of the rest of Jiang's family showed similar symptoms. They and other close contacts are under medical observation.

What is this post supposed to signify?

What happened? The virus has not mutated into a human-to-human strain. It still could, but is now into the second half of the usually around 18 month life cycle of an influenza virus - with each month that goes by, the possibility of it "breaking out" into the human population grows less.

If it doesn't happen by the end of the upcoming Northern Winter, it almost certainly won't happen at all.

Nothing new is happening so the media doesn't care.

Duh, everyone knows it was cured by sauerkraut!

Bird Flu was a scam by the drug corporations and Wal-Mart.

From snopes

http://www.snopes.com/politics/medical/tamiflu.asp

Tamiflu


Claim: U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld owns stock in the company that makes Tamiflu.

Status: True.

Example: [Collected via e-mail, 2006]

"Bird Flu"
Do you know that 'bird flu' was discovered in Vietnam 9 years ago?
Do you know that barely 100 people have died in the whole world in all that time?
Do you know that it was the Americans who alerted us to the efficacy of the human antiviral TAMIFLU as a preventative?
Do you know that TAMIFLU barely alleviates some symptoms of the common flu?
Do you know that its efficacy against the common flu is questioned by a great part of the scientific community?
Do you know that against a SUPPOSED mutant virus such as H5N1, TAMIFLU barely alleviates the illness?
Do you know that to date Avian Flu affects birds only?
Do you know who markets TAMIFLU?
ROCHE LABORATORIES.
Do you know who bought the patent for TAMIFLU from ROCHE LABORATORIES in 1996?
GILEAD SCIENCES INC.
Do you know who was the then president of GILEAD SCIENCES INC. and remains a major shareholder?
DONALD RUMSFELD, the present Secretary of Defence of the USA.
Do you know that the base of TAMIFLU is crushed aniseed?
Do you know who controls 90% of the world's production of this tree?
ROCHE.
Do you know that sales of TAMIFLU were over $254 million in 2004 and more than $1000 million in 2005?
Do you know how many more millions ROCHE can earn in the coming months if the business of fear continues?

So the summary of the story is as follows:
Bush's friends decide that the medicine TAMIFLU is the solution for a pandemic that has not yet occurred and that has caused a hundred deaths worldwide in 9 years.
This medicine doesn't so much as cure the common flu.
In normal conditions the virus does not affect humans.
Rumsfeld sells the patent for TAMIFLU to ROCHE for which they pay him a fortune.
Roche acquires 90% of the global production of crushed aniseed, the base for the antivirus.
The governments of the entire world threaten a pandemic and then buy industrial quantities of the product from Roche.
So we end up paying for medicine while Rumsfeld, Cheney and Bush do the business.

ARE WE CRAZY!!? OR ARE WE IDIOTS!!?
AT LEAST PASS THIS ON SO THAT IT CAN BE KNOWN!!!!!!!

Origins: This particular e-mail first came to us in April 2006. As to its claims, rather than take them in order, we'll examine them in two parts: whether the U.S. Secretary of Defense owns stock in the company that produces Tamiflu, and whether Tamiflu is effective against influenza.

As to the first, it is true Donald Rumsfeld does indeed have stock holdings in Gilead Sciences, Inc., the California biotech company that developed Tamiflu (a product now manufactured and sold by the pharmaceutical giant Roche), and so he benefits financially from increases in that company's stock price. (Gilead receives a royalty from Roche equal to about 10% of sales.) Rumsfeld was a member of Gilead's board of
directors between 1988 and 2001, and he was its chairman from 1997 until he joined President George W. Bush's cabinet as Secretary of Defense in 2001. According to federal financial disclosures filed by Rumsfeld, he has Gilead stock holdings valued at between $5 million and $25 million.

The Secretary of Defense is not the only politically-connected person to have ties to Gilead. Former Secretary of State George Shultz, who is on Gilead's board, has sold more than $7 million worth of Gilead stock since the beginning of 2005. Another Gilead board member is the wife of former California governor Pete Wilson.

Rumsfeld is in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" position because of his stock holdings, even though he apparently has no say in what Gilead does (he's no longer on its board) and has removed himself from being part of governmental decisions that affect it (he's recused himself). In a statement to The Independent in March 2006, the Pentagon said: "Secretary Rumsfeld has no relationship with Gilead Sciences, Inc. beyond his investments in the company. When he became Secretary of Defense in January 2001, divestiture of his investment in Gilead was not required by the Senate Armed Services Committee, the Office of Government Ethics or the Department of Defense Standards of Conduct Office. Upon taking office, he recused himself from participating in any particular matter when the matter would directly and predictably affect his financial interest in Gilead Sciences."

If Rumsfeld holds onto his stock and its share price rises (which one would expect it to do if an avian flu pandemic becomes a reality, or if concerns about such a pandemic continue to grow), he will be seen to be profiting mightily from sales of a product the U.S. government has been buying in large quantities. If he sells his stock and so divests himself of further interest in Tamiflu sales, he will be accused of locking up profits from the rise in share price that has already occurred. (In 2001, shares of Gilead Sciences, Inc. traded in a range between $6.64 and $17.93. Between January and April 2006, its price range has been $53.00 to $65.62.)

As to the second aspect of the e-mail, whether Tamiflu is effective against influenza (especially the specific H5N1 strain now referred to as avian or bird flu), the e-mail's dismissive "This medicine doesn't so much as cure the common flu" is misleading in that Tamiflu isn't meant to be a flu cure. Positioning the drug as a medicine that flopped obscures that fact.

Tamiflu does not cure the flu, but if taken soon after symptoms appear, Tamiflu can reduce the flu's severity. As to how well it's going to match up against bird flu, that is not yet known and indeed it may well not be knowable until the time comes. However, it is anticipated Tamiflu will have at least some effect against bird flu, and with that in mind, more than 60 countries (including the U.S.) have so far ordered large stocks of it. Such stockpiling is likely going to appear highly prudent if the bird flu pandemic, a worldwide medical disaster the United Nations estimates could kill 150 million people, does materialize.

Influenza is not a straightforward disease, as it is constantly mutating. While media attention has now conditioned us to regard "bird flu" as a particular entity, in truth there are many forms of "bird flu." The one now the focus of so much concern, the H5N1 strain, was first noted in Asian birds in 1997. That first year, 18 people in Hong Kong were diagnosed with the contagion, 6 of whom died. Since 1997, there have been approximately 206 known human cases bird flu (of which 114 died), but as the CDC points out: "It is possible that the only cases currently being reported are those in the most severely ill people, and that the full range of illness caused by the H5N1 virus has not yet been defined."

Viewed from one angle (114 deaths over the course of nine years), avian flu is not worth being much concerned about. But viewed from a more informed standpoint about the nature of influenza, there may indeed be great cause for alarm. Influenza can jump species and move from birds (and other animals, such as pigs) into humans. During the process of that move — and afterwards, as one person infects another — the virus changes form. What at one moment can be a containable and well-understood virus can in the space of hours or days become almost an entirely new virus. For this reason, flus are hard to combat: they change as they are passed along, staying well ahead of science's attempts to contain them.

Most strains of flu are not deadly to humans, save for members of groups especially at risk to all forms of contagion (e.g. the very young, the very old, and the infirm of all ages). Bird flu, however, is a killer, and if it jumps species and mutates on the fly into a form that humans can easily pass to each other, it could take the lives of millions in the space of weeks, ultimately making the United Nations' projected death toll of 150 million worldwide look like wishful thinking.

Barbara "the grim reaper may be Tweety" Mikkelson

Additional information:
Questions and Answers About Avian Influenza
(Centers for Disease Control)
Avian Flu
(World Health Organization)
The Influenza Pandemic of 1918
(Molly Billings, Stanford University)
Last updated: 6 May 2006


The URL for this page is http://www.snopes.com/politics/medical/tamiflu.asp

Urban Legends Reference Pages © 1995-2006
by Barbara and David P. Mikkelson
This material may not be reproduced without permission.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources:
Lean, Geoffrey and Jonathan Owen. "Donald Rumsfeld Makes $5M Killing on Bird Flu Drug."
[London] Independent on Sunday. 12 March 2006 (p. 46).


Page, Shelley. "Pandemic Paranoia."
Ottawa Citizen. 13 November 2005 (p. A9).


Schwartz, Nelson. "Rumsfeld's Growing Stake in Tamiflu."
CNN.com. 31 October 2005.


The New York Times. "Rumsfeld to Avoid Bird-Flu Drug Issues."
28 October 2005 (p. A13).

Turned out to be full of shit, huh? Or is it too early?

Things are relatively quiet on the political front, so they are saving that smoke screen for when it's most needed. :)

What I have heard is that Bird Flu is only catchable through bird-human with contact ect
but also that if a human with ordinary flu gets bird flu, the virus strain will mutate and be able to spread from person to person killing millions.

Don't know if thats true still....:(

It's not a really big issue for the upcoming elections in November. Even though it is a serious issue, it's being ignored in favor of Gay Marriage and Alternate Fuels.

My daughter, the epidemiologist, says bird flu is still a "potentially" serious issue. Most strains of flu, according to her, originated in the bird population. They mutated when other animals (like pigs - hence swine flu) were exposed and were eventually transmitted to people - with some quite deadly effects. "Bird flu" is still pretty much confined to the bird population, but it is, according to epidemiologists, worrying that some people in contact with birds have contracted it - it intensifies the probability that it will mutate into something that can be readily transmitted from person to person. It isn't something to panic about, but it is cause for concern and should be monitored.

(For the record, she is completing her Master's in epidemiology from Loma Linda University)

What is this post supposed to signify?

Current bird flu outbreaks

HTH.

If they don't warn us that a bad thing might happen and then the bad thing happens everybody is angry. People are still grousing about there being no warning of potential terrorist attacks prior to the world trade center incident. Why, oh why wasn't there more warning?!?

If they do warn us that a bad thing might happen and the bad thing does not happen, everybody is angry. One day (pre-Katrina) I was watching US news and some town had been evacuated because a hurricane or tornado or something was expected to hit, and then it changed course and didn't hit the town after all, so people were complaining about the inconvenience and expense of being unnecessarily evacuated. It boggles the mind. Instead of being happy that their homes weren't destroyed after all, they were angry about about the evacuation turning out to be unneeded.




Maybe having horrible things to worry about is a basic human need?

I'm practically nostalgic for the the days when Global Thermonuclear War was the big dread. At any moment one of the super-powers of the day could push the button, and all life on Earth would be destroyed (or at least all the forms of life that humans care about). Even if you happened to live in an area that was unlikely to be a direct target, you would probably be taken out by nuclear winter and lingering radiation sickness. Somehow the threat of some crazy dude setting off a dirty bomb in one city just seems petty in comparison. Ok, with Global Thermonuclear war you'd probably have at least 15 minutes to get ready for the end, while crazy dude will set off his pocket nuke with no warning whatsoever, but still. And if you happen to live in a high priority target the little bomb might even be worse, because the big nuclear war would almost certainly vaporise you instantly, while a brief case nuke is just going to make a mess which you will more than likely have to suffer through. But terrorism, while unpleasant, certainly doesn't have the oomph needed to quickly destroy civilization.

Global pandemics can't destroy all life, but do have at least the potential to destroy civilization. It might not be enough to send us back to the stone age, but it could be enough to send us back to the dark ages and a world without DVDs and wrist watches just isn't worth living in.

Global warming also has the potential to destroy civilization, but it just isn't sexy. Besides, if you take global warming seriously you have to actually do something about it, you personally. To prepare for a possible pandemic the authorities try to get out the message to wash your hands more often. Washing your hands is easy. If you are concerned about global warming you have to do things that are much more of an inconvenience, like using bicycles or public transit instead of a personal gas-burning vehicle most of the time, give up fire places, candles, petrochemicals, and you personally have to produce less rotting garbage. When it gets cold you put on a sweater, and when it gets dark you go to bed, because nearly all forms of energy production produce negative environmental effects. Worrying about global warming is a pain in the neck. Worrying about nuclear war, terrorism, or pandemics is better, because nobody expects you to do anything about it.

Turned out to be full of shit, huh? Or is it too early?

It was fought with and put under control (outbreak). But the virus is still there. Now they have to remain vigilant and monitor it if it mutates so it can be transfered people 2 people...