NationStates Jolt Archive

Eeeep.

I don't know about you, but I'm erring on the side of caution with this one. PV Solar powered, mini-wind-turbine-fitted, highly insulated house in the highlands for me, I reckon.

Anyway. Those in fear of peak oil:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

And those just chillin' out:

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/

Global warming is inevitable - Tuvala's f****d, and all that.

Basically, where do you see yourself in twenty years time? Growing your own vegetables and taking them to market in your coal-driven car? Is there going to be a miracle energy source? Will we make do? How's the political map going to look when half a continent attains permanent refugee status? Is anyone to blame? Won't somebody think of the children?

Eeeep.

I don't know about you, but I'm erring on the side of caution with this one. PV Solar powered, mini-wind-turbine-fitted, highly insulated house in the highlands for me, I reckon.

Anyway. Those in fear of peak oil:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

And those just chillin' out:

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/

Global warming is inevitable - Tuvala's f****d, and all that.

Basically, where do you see yourself in twenty years time? Growing your own vegetables and taking them to market in your coal-driven car? Is there going to be a miracle energy source? Will we make do? How's the political map going to look when half a continent attains permanent refugee status? Is anyone to blame? Won't somebody think of the children?


The US is the Saudi Arabia of coal. And Canada is the Saudi Arabia of shale oil.

Between the two, there's another few hundred years of oil and gasoline, even at higher demand levels.

Of course, only developed nations will be able to afford it...

The UK has loads of coal under the surface HOWEVER no mines to get it out.

The US is the Saudi Arabia of coal. And Canada is the Saudi Arabia of shale oil.

Between the two, there's another few hundred years of oil and gasoline, even at higher demand levels.

Of course, only developed nations will be able to afford it...
Also, my fairy godmother says she can make a car for me that runs on farts.

Also, my fairy godmother says she can make a car for me that runs on farts.
They are already doing it.

http://www.clean-energy.us/

They are already doing it.

http://www.clean-energy.us/
Yeah. As I posted in the other thread...
How reliable is the HL formula as a predictor? It shows us that the Lower 48 peaked when it was 52 percent depleted. Texas peak did not show up until our oil reserves were 57 percent depleted – but I suspect that can be explained by the Texas Railroad Commission's regulation of Texas oil production, which kept production equal to demand -- that is, below the maximum efficient rate of production.

Another example are the North Sea oil fields, where production has been falling steadily since peaking in 1999 at 52 percent of total recoverable reserves. North Sea oil production is now about one-fourth below its peak. The HL formula would have foreseen this, but the 10 major oil companies working the North Sea oil fields did not. Using the best engineers and technology available, they predicted just before what we now know was the peak in 1999 that North Sea production would peak around 2010. They were badly mistaken, but many of these same companies are now saying that world peak oil production is decades away.

The HL model says Saudi Arabia is 58% depleted and the world is 48% depleted. This is close to where Texas and the Lower 48 peaked and started irreversible declines in production. Based on the HL method and historical models, I believe that Saudi Arabia and the world are now on the verge of irreversible declines in conventional oil production.

Two legendary Texas billionaires, Boone Pickens and Richard Rainwater, who share a remarkable ability to profitably predict future trends--have looked at exactly the same regional and world data plots that I have looked at, and they have reached exactly the same conclusion that I have: that the world has used about half of its conventional crude oil reserves. Both Mr. Pickens and Mr. Rainwater have tried to warn us about the challenges that we will face as a result of declining conventional oil production.

What about unconventional sources of oil? The unconventional reserves are very large but can only be produced slowly because of high capital and energy costs per barrel of production. In recent years, new tar sands production has balanced declines in conventional Canadian oil production, with no net increase for exports.

There will be massive efforts with unconventional oil, such as Canadian tar sands and the tar and very heavy oil deposits in Venezuela. However, I predict that unconventional sources of oil will only slow--and not reverse--the decline in total world oil production because of the time and energy needed to expand production of these "oils."It's not just how much you have, it's how fast you can produce it. What if I were to give you a bank account with $2 billion in it? That'd be great, ha? How about if I were to give that to you and then tell you you can spend it on whatever you want and it's all your money but the catch is your spending limit is $10 per day?

Yeah. As I posted in the other thread...
It's not just how much you have, it's how fast you can produce it. What if I were to give you a bank account with $2 billion in it? That'd be great, ha? How about if I were to give that to you and then tell you you can spend it on whatever you want and it's all your money but the catch is your spending limit is $10 per day?

Yes. Which is why I think that only the US and Canada (and anyone who can afford the fuel) will be in on it.

The rest of the world will be sucking eggs.

Meh, I say we should go out with a bang. A Nuclear free for all! :D

Yes. Which is why I think that only the US and Canada (and anyone who can afford the fuel) will be in on it.

The rest of the world will be sucking eggs.
That's not the way it works. First, the US and Canada don't produce enough for our own consumption. Second, if you want to remain a free market, capitalist country than you can't tell independent producers who they can and can't buy or sell oil from. World oil prices fungible.

When you consider it realistically the doomsayers are nuts. Imagine what would happen if from tomorrow your country had to make do with half the oil it normally uses. Sure that would suck, but anarchy wouldn't reign and nobody would have to die. Prices would go up, speed limits would be lowered, perhaps car pooling would be enforced. Gas guzzelers would be scrapped, hybrid cars would be bought. Perhaps rationing would be introduced. Peak oil is going to be a lot less sudden than having your oil supply cut in half. Current high prices are forcing people to adapt already. Sure peak oil makes for problems, but it's not going to be the end of the world.

Hey! There's no poll option for me. I need something like:

"It doesn't make things easy, but we'll manage."

When you consider it realistically the doomsayers are nuts. Imagine what would happen if from tomorrow your country had to make do with half the oil it normally uses. Sure that would suck, but anarchy wouldn't reign and nobody would have to die. Prices would go up, speed limits would be lowered, perhaps car pooling would be enforced. Gas guzzelers would be scrapped, hybrid cars would be bought. Perhaps rationing would be introduced. Peak oil is going to be a lot less sudden than having your oil supply cut in half. Current high prices are forcing people to adapt already. Sure peak oil makes for problems, but it's not going to be the end of the world.

Hey! There's no poll option for me. I need something like:

"It doesn't make things easy, but we'll manage."
I think when you read most Peak Oil warnings you don't find people saying, "Peak Oil will make monsters explode from our heads." The point is that it will cause extreme economic hardship, not that it will hasten the arrival of the last epidemic of Ebola.

Id like a car where I can just shit in my gas tank.

Id like a car where I can just shit in my gas tank.

You could shit in the gas tank of your current car...