NationStates Jolt Archive

With most of the votes counted, former Republican Representative Brian Bilbray has won the seat formerly held by Duke Cunningham. He campaigned on border control, while his Democratic candidate, Francine Busby, campaigned against the Republican "Culture of Corruption". He won, she lost. Most voters didn't associate Cunninghams crimes with the Republican party. My view is that this was the best of all worlds. A ding-bat Democrat was defeated, the incumbent was not re-elected, and the winner has made promises to secure the border before moving on to more elaborate measures to legitimize illegal residents of the United States.

The question goes out to our NS General pundits, "What does this loss for the Democrats mean for the general elections in 2006?". Are we still looking at a San Francisco Socialist as Speaker of the House, or will the incompetent Dennis Hastert remain behind the wheel?

Doesn't mean much at all--Busby increased her vote total from the last time she ran, and she wasn't running against Cunningham. Bilbray, for all his many faults, hadn't been accused of corruption, and he really played the immigration card hard in the last two or three days. Plus, add in that he outspent Busby 2 to 1 in a very heavily Republican district--60-40 I believe--and he barely pulled in half the vote.

It's always dangerous to read too much into special elections--in 2004, the Dems went two for two in special elections heading into the November elections and we all know how that turned out. I'm still hopeful for November.

It was a solidly Republican district, so the fact that a Democrat was even a serious contender bodes well for the Dems. Unfortunately the gerymandering in this country has made it difficult for the balance of power to change. Dems may get control of the house, barely. More states should redistrict according to New Jersey's model. Democrats and Republicans bargain together to determine how districts are drawn, and if they reach an impasse a third person, usually an academic like Princeton University politics professor Larry Bartels in 2001, is brought in to help decide.

I can only judge it by the importance the Democrats placed on it.

until the dingbat made a stupid comment on allowing immigrants to vote...she was actually in a race .

It was a solidly Republican district, so the fact that a Democrat was even a serious contender bodes well for the Dems. Unfortunately the gerymandering in this country has made it difficult for the balance of power to change. Dems may get control of the house, barely. More states should redistrict according to New Jersey's model. Democrats and Republicans bargain together to determine how districts are drawn, and if they reach an impasse a third person, usually an academic like Princeton University politics professor Larry Bartels in 2001, is brought in to help decide.
We do that in Georgia -- sort of. The legislature votes on a redistricting plan and then the other side sues. In fact, I think redistricting plans have to go through a U.S. Attorney before they can be enacted, but I'm not sure. We do have some very creative gerrymandering, in spite of all that. The ten feet on either side of a highway connecting one population center to another have always been the ones that I like best.


Back to the issue at hand. There were some interesting sidebars in the Busby-Bilbray election. I recall reading that she, Busby, had campaigned for third party candidates that were likely to draw votes from Bilbray. I didn't follow that closely because it seemed like a sour grapes argument. But I suspect that the Republican party is going to lose a few seats because there are so many of them that are just not representing the conservatives that sent them to Washington.

Doesn't mean much at all--Busby increased her vote total from the last time she ran, and she wasn't running against Cunningham. Bilbray, for all his many faults, hadn't been accused of corruption, and he really played the immigration card hard in the last two or three days. Plus, add in that he outspent Busby 2 to 1 in a very heavily Republican district--60-40 I believe--and he barely pulled in half the vote.

It's always dangerous to read too much into special elections--in 2004, the Dems went two for two in special elections heading into the November elections and we all know how that turned out. I'm still hopeful for November.


I'm sure that if the Democrat had won, you would be singing a different tune.

Wow, another "Dummycr@ts r l00zers l0l" thread. So what? The fact that a Democrat kept a good pace in a Republican stronghold says something, plus Red State voters tend to have a one-track mind on single issues. The 2004 Election crowd was scared of fags getting married. This crowd was scared of dirty brown-skinned gardeners, nannies and orange hawkers trying to find work in the U.S.