NationStates Jolt Archive

There haven't been any terror alerts lately, not that I've seen. The alert status has been at elevated for almost a year now, and the news at terroralert.com (http://www.terror-alert.com/)was last updated in July 2005.

But this is an election year, and the Republicans are getting pounded right now, so you know what that means--as November approaches, the alert status will start bouncing like a four year old on a sugar trip.

So here's the pool--choose the date you believe the first terror alert of the new election season will pop up. The person who gets it correct or closest to it can put it in his or her signature or something, and will receive the title of "Omnipotent Terror Prognosticator of Nationstates." If there are multiple people choosing the same date, the winner will be the first person who picked the date. This contest is open to people of all political persuasions and nationalities. Void where prohibited. :D


Edit: the following dates have been chosen already. I'll update periodically.
June 19--Daistallia 2104
June 27--Kanabia
June 29--Anarchic Christians
June 30--Khadgar

July 1--Callisdrun
July 3--Squirrel Brothers
July 4--Vetalia
July 14--Il Ruffino
July 27--Not Bad

August 2--Quaon
August 9--Kyronea
August 10--Sarkhaan
August 11--Gymoor Prime
August 17--Thriceaddict
August 22--Fartsniffage
August 25--Dexlysia
August 28--RLI Returned
August 30--Righteous Munchee-Love

September 1--Ifreann
September 2--The Nazz
September 7--Zilam
September 8--Cannot Think of a Name
September 9--Kinda Sensible People
September 10---Free shepmagans
September 11--Deep Kimchi
September 14--Kleptonis
September 17--Gruenberg
September 25--Delator

October 1--Ashmoria
October 7--Good Lifes
October 10--Define meaning
October 12--Demented Hamsters
October 15--Ivanovo
October 17--Taredas
October 22--Peisandros
October 23--CanuckHeaven
October 31--Upward Thrust

November 1--Sel Appa
November 3--M3rcenaries
November 11--Dobbsworld
November 24--Boonytopia

July 27th

I'm going to choose September 2, only because it's my daughter's birthday. I imagine it'll come significantly before then.

Thought they gave up that tactic when people started pointing out that every time Bush's poll numbers took a dive Tom Ridge was on TV screaming about terrorists.


Though I wouldn't put it past them. June 30th.

June 29.

My exams end that day :p

Thought they gave up that tactic when people started pointing out that every time Bush's poll numbers took a dive Tom Ridge was on TV screaming about terrorists.


Though I wouldn't put it past them. June 30th.
They may have made his numbers dive, but they undoubtedly had an effect on election day, so I have little doubt they'll try it again. I can only hope that this time there will be a backlash effect.

The elections are in november, right?
If so then, somewhere in August. I'll go with the.... 17th. Unless that's on a weekend, then the closest weekday.

June 29.

My exams end that day :p
And what a way to celebrate! :D

Isnt it ironic how the people you are criticizing are the ones the masses feel safer with?
Your own argument is demonstrating that if the big bad manipulative Reupublicans hint at some sort of attack, it will strengthen their own party standing.

Are you stating that people actually feel safer with them in office if they believe there is a threat and will vote based on this security?

The masses are stupid. By definition atleast half are below average intelligence, and they vote, repeatedly.

The masses are stupid. By definition atleast half are below average intelligence, and they vote, repeatedly.


I guess that answers that, huh?

And I'm sure you consider yourself average or above, right?

Isnt it ironic how the people you are criticizing are the ones the masses feel safer with?
Your own argument is demonstrating that if the big bad manipulative Reupublicans hint at some sort of attack, it will strengthen their own party standing.

Are you stating that people actually feel safer with them in office if they believe there is a threat and will vote based on this security?
Actually, what I'm saying is that the Republican party has manipulated--dishonestly--the terror alert level to play on the fears of the voting public, and to some extent it works, because many voters (too many, sadly) don't spend enough time following the news and questioning the statements of their politicians to know that they're full of shit. There's no question that playing the fear card is politically effective, and that a segent of the voting population buys into it. How large a segment? I'm not sure, but it's probably big enough to act as a swing bloc.

Edit: So, are you going to pick a date?

July 4th. The terror alert will be raised to high and then dropped shortly thereafter because of the symbolic nature of the date.

I seriously wonder what would be required for the terror alert to fall to "guarded"
from "elevated". If you ask me, the risk of terror seems a little more general than significant.

august 10

July 4th. The terror alert will be raised to high and then dropped shortly thereafter because of the symbolic nature of the date.

I seriously wonder what would be required for the terror alert to fall to "guarded"
from "elevated". If you ask me, the risk of terror seems a little more general than significant.
A new president? :D

August 28.

I guess that answers that, huh?

And I'm sure you consider yourself average or above, right?

Last IQ test showed signifigantly above. Though some days are better than others.


I picked June 30th because that's the Friday before July 4th (which lands on a Tuesday). I consider the third to be too short of notice for a decent terror alert. They'll wanna get us all worked up over the weekend I'm sure.

Actually, what I'm saying is that the Republican party has manipulated--dishonestly--the terror alert level to play on the fears of the voting public, and to some extent it works, because many voters (too many, sadly) don't spend enough time following the news and questioning the statements of their politicians to know that they're full of shit. There's no question that playing the fear card is politically effective, and that a segent of the voting population buys into it. How large a segment? I'm not sure, but it's probably big enough to act as a swing bloc.

Edit: So, are you going to pick a date?


Ok- But that means that people are motivated to vote on way or another-If that motivation happens to be insecurity & fear, you're saying a majority of those motivated will vote Republican ?

I know you dont want to admit it, but in my opinion,thats what you're saying.

Why doesnt it motivate people to vote for Democrats ?


I'm not picking a date as I dont agree. Plus there's nothing to gain for me.

Ok- But that means that people are motivated to vote on way or another-If that motivation happens to be insecurity & fear, you're saying a majority of those motivated will vote Republican ?

I know you dont want to admit it, but in my opinion,thats what you're saying.

Why doesnt it motivate people to vote for Democrats ?


I'm not picking a date as I dont agree. Plus there's nothing to gain for me.
It hasn't worked recently for Democrats because they're still tarred with the Vietnam anti-war crowd brush--no question about that--although there have been no shortage of Democrats who joined in on the "I'm tough on terror too--watch me vote for an unrelated war" bandwagon. They fell into the old trap between giving voters a choice between a fake Republican and a real one, and voters went for the real one. What I'm hoping, and what I think will happen this time, is that voters will look at the situation and say "those Republicans were talking tough, but all we got in exchange was a stupid war. Maybe I'll give the other guys a shot for a while." And playing with the terror alert will backfire--call it an extension of the boy who cried wolf.

Last IQ test showed signifigantly above. Though some days are better than others.




Is this one of those days, or no?

Ok- But that means that people are motivated to vote on way or another-If that motivation happens to be insecurity & fear, you're saying a majority of those motivated will vote Republican ?

I know you dont want to admit it, but in my opinion,thats what you're saying.

Why doesnt it motivate people to vote for Democrats ?


I'm not picking a date as I dont agree. Plus there's nothing to gain for me.Its more that the Republicans will bet on changing the terror alert will help them. Whether it worked that way or not would be interesting to see.

I actually think there will be a real attack in the US before the election.

I actually think there will be a real attack in the US before the election.
If you want to guess a date for that instead, I'll accept it as an entry.

If you want to guess a date for that instead, I'll accept it as an entry.
Monday, September 11, 2006.

Monday, September 11, 2006.
I imagine there will certainly be an alert around then, if nothing else, as there will likely be one around that date for the next twenty years or so.

I imagine there will certainly be an alert around then, if nothing else, as there will likely be one around that date for the next twenty years or so.
I've never figured that out...they always chose notable dates to elevate the warning, but 9/11 itself was a very random date

Its more that the Republicans will bet on changing the terror alert will help them. Whether it worked that way or not would be interesting to see.


Of course this is speculation either way and we will never TRULY know one way or the other.
This could be convincingly argued one way, then the other. I really dont bleive either.

I just hope that luck and vigilance stays on our side. The threat will always be there. Too many people have made it a full time life's mission to look for ideal opporotunities to hurt or humilate us.

buildin a pool to jump in? The guys who chose 9-11 should just jump into a pool and drown themselves. Its a retarded date.

Of course this is speculation either way and we will never TRULY know one way or the other.
This could be convincingly argued one way, then the other. I really dont bleive either.

I just hope that luck and vigilance stays on our side. The threat will always be there. Too many people have made it a full time life's mission to look for ideal opporotunities to hurt or humilate us.
well, if they do pull it, then we'll know...

but I think it would inevitably help them...the people who are still for this admin are pretty solidly there, and playing with the terror warning won't make them move. Some of the people against them are just over the line into not liking them, so it could be enough to shake some of them loose.

but who knows?

I actually think there will be a real attack in the US before the election.


I hope not.


Will it count if a real attack is thwarted before the elections?

I'd much rather see dedicated professionals track down some scum bags and eliminate them and all their friends.

Is this one of those days, or no?

Answer uncertain, try again later.

buildin a pool to jump in? The guys who chose 9-11 should just jump into a pool and drown themselves. Its a retarded date.
who knew a date could have significantly below average mental capacity?

huh...learn something new every day.

World Cup final day.

well, if they do pull it, then we'll know...

but I think it would inevitably help them...the people who are still for this admin are pretty solidly there, and playing with the terror warning won't make them move. Some of the people against them are just over the line into not liking them, so it could be enough to shake some of them loose.

but who knows?


"Who knows" is right. I'll just keep doing my own thing and doing it well, an eye and an ear out in case something is happening. I'm as ready as I can reasonably be.

As far as the next election? I'll pay attention to what the candidates have to say and without believing much of what any promise, will vote with whatever makes sense to me.

What more can you do? Just dont follow the people who tell you they are smart.

who knew a date could have significantly below average mental capacity?

huh...learn something new every day.


*L* I just learned that too

You know, Bin Laden made a big speech right before the last major election, which helped Bush enormously.

It made anyone who voted for Kerry look like someone who wanted to have a truce with Bin Laden.

I imagine this time it will be a full fledged attack. Bin Laden hasn't done a real attack in the US in a while, and that will make him seem real again.

Bin Laden doesn't care who gets elected - all he cares is that we're scared of him and take him seriously.

World Cup final day.
I'll need a date for that. ;)

You know, Bin Laden made a big speech right before the last major election, which helped Bush enormously.

It made anyone who voted for Kerry look like someone who wanted to have a truce with Bin Laden.

I imagine this time it will be a full fledged attack. Bin Laden hasn't done a real attack in the US in a while, and that will make him seem real again.

Bin Laden doesn't care who gets elected - all he cares is that we're scared of him and take him seriously.


I think bin laden would like someone in office who waits to see how the polls on certain issues turn out before making decisions.

I think bin laden would like someone in office who waits to see how the polls on certain issues turn out before making decisions.
You mean, like Bush? (http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2001/0204.green.html)

Let's not play this game--polling is an inextricable part of modern politics, no matter what your political leanings.

27th of June.

you guys are so cynical. suggesting that the entire political season will be tarnished by fake terror alerts.

october 1st

it will have to be about a terror threat in the midwest somewhere since they just slashed the homeland security budget for the more likely targets.

its so hard to predict real terror attacks since alqaeda has been reduced to mostly suggesting rather than organizing. homegrown groups, like the guys in canada, can do anything at any time. probably on some 11th of something.

if alqaeda has an attack inside the US it will be in the first 9 months of '09.

and in case you have forgotten.....

OCTOBER 1ST

August 25th. Close enough to 9/11 to stir up some emotions, but far enough away to allow the voters to stew in them for a while.

90% of Americans don't deserve the right to vote and could not pour piss out of a boot if the directions were printed on the sole.

International Talk Like A Pirate Day - 17th September.

July 1st.

Hmm... I'll say the Republicans will put it off until the Democrats start to gain favor in the polls... So... 15 October.

I'm having 22nd August as it's my birthday.

Anyone else in?

You know, Bin Laden made a big speech right before the last major election, which helped Bush enormously.

It made anyone who voted for Kerry look like someone who wanted to have a truce with Bin Laden.

I imagine this time it will be a full fledged attack. Bin Laden hasn't done a real attack in the US in a while, and that will make him seem real again.

Bin Laden doesn't care who gets elected - all he cares is that we're scared of him and take him seriously.
I wonder who would be hurt by bin laden showing his face again...democrats or republicans?

Last time, it helped republicans for the exact reason that you said...but this time, its two years later, and we still haven't gotten even a step closer to him. Maybe it would work against republicans...

but, as I said earlier, "who knows"

August 2nd

November 1

July 3

Okay, I've updated the opening post to include a list of the dates that are taken and who has them. If you're not in yet, grab a date before they're all gone. ;)

September 1st.

September 7th. Just a few days before the 5th anniversary of 9-11-01

July 14th

August 11th

July 14th


Hey, thats the day I became a christian 5 years ago:)

Hey, thats the day I became a christian 5 years ago:)
Hmm

*evil giggle*

Wait...It's going to come tomorrow!!!! 6/6/06...Islamics are the anti-christ!!!!

Actually, I'll go with October 10th. They don't want to do it in the summer, because of the tourist industry.

September 7th. Just a few days before the 5th anniversary of 9-11-01
Oooh, good one.

I'm going to "Price is Right" you and go with the 8th, right before the weekend so it can be on the Sunday talk shows without as much examination, going into the 11th full tilt fear.

Hmm

*evil giggle*


:eek:

Oooh, good one.

I'm going to "Price is Right" you and go with the 8th, right before the weekend so it can be on the Sunday talk shows without as much examination, going into the 11th full tilt fear.


Oh....damn you! I hate the Price is Right. I swear Mr Barker is a zombie.

Oh....damn you! I hate the Price is Right. I swear Mr Barker is a zombie.
He certainly looks undead.

September 9th. That way people have time to panic in time for Sept. 11, so the administration can get a really good photo-shoot at Ground Zero.

October 31

Front page updated again.

October 12th.

August 9th.

I'll tkae november 3rd.

He certainly looks undead.
He was the proto-type they built before building Dick Clarke.

He was the proto-type they built before building Dick Clarke.
Speaking of ancient tv stars, did you see that Wink Martindale got a star on the walk of fame?

Actually, what I'm saying is that the Republican party has manipulated--dishonestly--the terror alert level to play on the fears of the voting public, and to some extent it works, because many voters (too many, sadly) don't spend enough time following the news and questioning the statements of their politicians to know that they're full of shit. There's no question that playing the fear card is politically effective, and that a segent of the voting population buys into it. How large a segment? I'm not sure, but it's probably big enough to act as a swing bloc.

Edit: So, are you going to pick a date?
I agree with your comment and I think that the Bin Laden tape (http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/10/29/bin.laden.transcript/)just before the last election put Georgy Boy over the top. Lets face facts that Bin Laden would prefer George We Will Smokem Bush in office than some more determined Democrat. Bin Laden has bin quite safe ever since the US decided to abandon Afghanistan for Iraq.

Another Al-Queda tape on or about October 23 just might save a few Republicants seats.

I agree with your comment and I think that the Bin Laden tape (http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/10/29/bin.laden.transcript/)just before the last election put Georgy Boy over the top. Lets face facts that Bin Laden would prefer George We Will Smokem Bush in office than some more determined Democrat. Bin Laden has bin quite safe ever since the US decided to abandon Afghanistan for Iraq.

Another Al-Queda tape on or about October 23 just might save a few Republicants seats.
And besides, it's a prime number - one that is also an enigma (http://www.afgen.com/numbr23b.html). Apparently.

Speaking of ancient tv stars, did you see that Wink Martindale got a star on the walk of fame?
I would have assumed that he already had one, but that would be just a demonstration of how unfamiliar I am with the Walk of Fame and who gets on it...because now that I think about it I don't know why he already would have...

By the way, for the heck of it I did a google on the guy, his website (http://www.winkmartindale.com/mainmenu/index.html) is priceless...especially with the photo of him in the Mars Patrol outfit-
http://www.winkmartindale.com/pix-and-clix/thumbnails/kids.gif

I would have assumed that he already had one, but that would be just a demonstration of how unfamiliar I am with the Walk of Fame and who gets on it...because now that I think about it I don't know why he already would have...

By the way, for the heck of it I did a google on the guy, his website (http://www.winkmartindale.com/mainmenu/index.html) is priceless...especially with the photo of him in the Mars Patrol outfit-
http://www.winkmartindale.com/pix-and-clix/thumbnails/kids.gif
Another odd fact about him--he was apparently best friends with Barry White. Saw it on Behind the Music.

And besides, it's a prime number - one that is also an enigma (http://www.afgen.com/numbr23b.html). Apparently.
Well the US is an enigma to say the least. Nice to know that my date has some kind of relevance. Thanks for the info....twas a good read. :D

Another odd fact about him--he was apparently best friends with Barry White. Saw it on Behind the Music.
You will accept my October 23 prophecy?

Another odd fact about him--he was apparently best friends with Barry White. Saw it on Behind the Music.
I would kill for a recording of thier conversation...about anything...

You will accept my October 23 prophecy?
Yeah--I'll probably wait until tomorrow to update the front page and use it as an excuse to bump the thread again--unless the threat level goes up tomorrow, that is, in which case I'll declare a winner. :D

Yeah--I'll probably wait until tomorrow to update the front page and use it as an excuse to bump the thread again--unless the threat level goes up tomorrow, that is, in which case I'll declare a winner. :D
Okkkkkaaaayyyyy. Thanks. I do think you are right on the money with this though. The Republicans love playing the fear card, however, if Americans are smart, they will realize that global terrorism has increased since the US invaded Iraq.

Can I please have 24/11/06. I have a good feeling about it.

September 10.

I'll say September 25th...

Front page updated again--still plenty of good dates left.;)

Front page updated again--still plenty of good dates left.;)
I've got a good feeling about CH's pick, but put me down for my birthday - September 17th.

...Just wanted to make sure I'm down for 9/17.

Does this count?
http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=11107303&postcount=1

...Just wanted to make sure I'm down for 9/17.
Sorry--someone's already claimed that date. Another one?

Sorry--someone's already claimed that date. Another one?
Sapristi!

Lemme get back to you...

*Damn*

October 7--One month before the election.

I dunno, is 11/11 outside the range? Them terrorists do love attacking symbols, apparently, so maybe they'll target Remembrance Day ceremonies. What with all the super-patriot chest-thumping about the sanctity of the troops of late, it's a natural.

I dunno, is 11/11 outside the range? Them terrorists do love attacking symbols, apparently, so maybe they'll target Remembrance Day ceremonies. What with all the super-patriot chest-thumping about the sanctity of the troops of late, it's a natural.Yer added.

September 14th. It feels right.

Just for a lark, I'll take June 19th. (A cookie for the first person who knows the significance of that date.)

Just for a lark, I'll take June 19th. (A cookie for the first person who knows the significance of that date.)
The date in 1961 that the UK gave up Kuwait?

Juneteenth?

Juneteenth?

A cookie for you. I picked it as I think it'll be earlier than the others chosen, other than that it was just the first date that popped into my head. :D

August, the 30.

Since Demented Hamsters already chose my birthday.. I'll go with October 22nd.

Sept. 11

Sept. 11
Sorry--Deep Kimchi already has that date. The list in the OP is updated, however, so you can find another one if you wish.

I like the looks of October 17 as a "raise the terror alert" day, as it's three weeks before the actual election.

That said, given that there seems to be a major al-Qaeda attack every 15-16 months, I also think that al-Qaeda will try to launch a major terrorist attack this year... on November 11. (Somebody's called that date as "raise the terror alert" day, but nobody's called November 11 as "al-Qaeda, ATTACK!" day.)

Updated. Anyone else? Also, if you've already chosen a date and want to change it, let me know and I'll make changes.

November 2nd

November 1st
Already taken by Sel Appa. Another choice, perhaps?

October 24.