NationStates Jolt Archive

Looking at Iraq today, the hope that it will be a unified democratic state is just a fantasy now. The way I see it is that the best case scenario is that the country will be divided into three seperate states; one for the Sunni's, one for the Kurds, and one for the Shi'ites, in a worst case scenario, the country will descend into an all out civil war. What do you think?

Thumbs up for Segregation.

You mean civil war HASN'T broke out there? :eek:

It won't matter when Iran nuke Israel and we plunge into WW III.

It won't matter when Iran nuke Israel and we plunge into WW III.

We've had a few more than two world wars... But whatever, the points still there. Going further than that, it won't matter when the nuclear aftermath involves planet-wide sterility.

It won't matter when Iran nuke Israel and we plunge into WW III.
I daresay even the Iranian President isn't that stupid.

:mp5:

In the postwar 1940's, people saw West Germany as a devastated place degenerating in to economic collapse, political chaos, and civil war that was gripped by a determined insurgency and a populace that was in many places indifferent or hostile to the occupation forces. By the 1950's, West Germany was on the road to an economic miracle that would last for decades and its Nazi insurgency was collapsing, and that led to the creation of one of the world's largest economies and highest standards of living.

This probably will not play out in Iraq to the same degree or at the same speed, but it is important to remember that success takes time and commitment; it was not possible to rebuild Germany in three years, and it will not be possible to rebuild Iraq in such a short time either especially considering that Iraq has suffered economic stagnation and decay for over 12 years prior to the invasion in 2003.

Give it a decade and then look at the way things are developing. It's too early to tell whether Iraq will succeed or fail to build a unified, peaceful nation with a healthy economy or a war zone wracked by civil war, tyranny, and economic depression.

I daresay even the Iranian President isn't that stupid.

Lets hope that Iran and China don't form a pact. I sure dubya would be stupid enough to nuke Iran and start WWIII. It's gonna be US/Europe/Russia vs Iran/Iraq/China.

No, a united Iraq is still a possibility...........its not that they are incapable of compromise (which is shown by the huge comprises the Kurds, the Sunnis, and the Shiites made to from the government), its the terrorist groups. It is difficult to compromise with someone that days earlier shot you family in the street....when Iraq is made safe (which......well....is why a United Iraq is going to be difficult to form) will people easily be able to compromise and be a part of the democratic process. Much of Iraq wants conditions there to change and they realize that breaking out in Civil War is not the answer....yet as terrorist groups ignite conflict (while striving to blame the conflict on Shiites in general, or Kurds in general, or Sunnis in general) , it is hard for the average citizen to not want to pick up a gun and defend his family from the perceived threat (or if the family is dead...then its for revenge) which is the people of another Muslim belief. The road is likely to be very difficult...and on the track that we are taking now...nearly impossible, but to say that there is no other outcomes than 3 separate countries (which would probably be unrealistic....the 3 Muslim beliefs to not split evenly into 3 different areas and people would be very opposed to leaving where they live) or civil war (which the first option would have to lead to Civil War).

Originally Posted by Wilgrove:
It won't matter when Iran nuke Israel and we plunge into WW III.

Um.....2 things......one despite that the Iranian people in general and much of the Arab world in general would see this as a good idea, the leaders of those countries are not that stupid. The people leading Iran are actively surpressing its people in order for their government to stay in power.....even the leaders there know that once they fire the nuke and obliterate Israel, the rest of the world is going to fall on to their asses and remove them from power....most likely executing them too (but not after a very long trial). In fact, it would bring new life to all of the U.S.'s efforts in the Middle East (which Iran wants desperately to fail) and the nuke would most likely kill a lot of fellow Arabs in Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Jordon, Saudi Arabia and more....which they also don't wanna do. Yes, I highly doubt that they will use it, but they will not wait to use it as a political weapon to get what they want. Oh and 2, WWIII? Even more unlikely......if you count WWIII as the everyone in the world beating Iran in a week....then....well...idk. Even the Arab countries would turn on Iran, considering that most of them would of been radiated by the Nuke!

*Oops, forgot this too. Iran is not going to nuke Israel, because that would mean they would have to nuke Jeruelsalem, which, if you didn't know has a lot of Muslim places of great religious value (as well as Christian and Jewish....and well probably everything else lol).

Ok....thats all!

Originally posted by Vetalia:
In the postwar 1940's, people saw West Germany as a devastated place degenerating in to economic collapse, political chaos, and civil war that was gripped by a determined insurgency and a populace that was in many places indifferent or hostile to the occupation forces. By the 1950's, West Germany was on the road to an economic miracle that would last for decades and its Nazi insurgency was collapsing, and that led to the creation of one of the world's largest economies and highest standards of living.

This probably will not play out in Iraq to the same degree or at the same speed, but it is important to remember that success takes time and commitment; it was not possible to rebuild Germany in three years, and it will not be possible to rebuild Iraq in such a short time either especially considering that Iraq has suffered economic stagnation and decay for over 12 years prior to the invasion in 2003.

Give it a decade and then look at the way things are developing. It's too early to tell whether Iraq will succeed or fail to build a unified, peaceful nation with a healthy economy or a war zone wracked by civil war, tyranny, and economic depression.

Yes, i do agree with Vetalia....it is a bit too early to tell, but yes, there are many obstacles to overcome in Iraq, a bit more than Germany. On the track that we are on now.....I'm not seeing it....but then again...all I watch is the news which tells me everyother day that sectarian civil war is on the brink of breaking out and another 40 people of died from terrorists. Yes, I feel that with good handling of the situation from many countries that a unified Iraq is completely probable.

Originally Posted by Allemonde Quote:
Lets hope that Iran and China don't form a pact. I sure dubya would be stupid enough to nuke Iran and start WWIII. It's gonna be US/Europe/Russia vs Iran/Iraq/China.

Um.....there are about a billion things wrong with that statement....again WWIII not happening. Iran and Iraq represent no threat....they are beaten by the world in 2 weeks or less. The rest of my reasons for Iraq are above and well, Iran too. On China? Give me a break? China is joining the intergrating into the global market and an accelerated rate. If China leads forces against the rest of the world....for one they would lose (not from lack of people...but more from being out produced and out teched). Two, it would cripple their booming economy which is currently getting alot of its support from the rest of the world. China is currently on the fast drive to building the most fearsome economy in the world. They aren't going to ruin that just because of Iran and Iraq (even though they do desperately need their oil, but they would probably get it faster teaming on Iran and Iraq and taking it back forcefully). Really...come on...

Looking at Iraq today, the hope that it will be a unified democratic state is just a fantasy now. The way I see it is that the best case scenario is that the country will be divided into three seperate states; one for the Sunni's, one for the Kurds, and one for the Shi'ites, in a worst case scenario, the country will descend into an all out civil war. What do you think?

Well, I thought we were there to steal their oil but the price at the pump seems to tell different. I thought for sure the US was going to see to this. I mean, I want cheaper gas for my truck so I can drive around wasting it while chomping on a greasy burger.

As far as Iraq goes, I think its too early to tell. Revisit this in another month or so when the newly seated government gets to pass some policies.

Once we take all their oil, we'll bury our Nuk-lier waste there. After all, we're Americans. That's how we roll...:)

Looking at Iraq today, the hope that it will be a unified democratic state is just a fantasy now. The way I see it is that the best case scenario is that the country will be divided into three seperate states; one for the Sunni's, one for the Kurds, and one for the Shi'ites, in a worst case scenario, the country will descend into an all out civil war. What do you think?


We'll finish the job. Leave it up to the military to do that, not politicians.

Brave men win wars, spineless politicians lose them.

However, 3 different nations for the 3 different ethnic groups does have appeal...

We'll finish the job. Leave it up to the military to do that, not politicians.

Brave men win wars, spineless politicians lose them.

However, 3 different nations for the 3 different ethnic groups does have appeal...
While I agree with your 1st point,we do have to finish the job and establish democracy, a three state answer would be disasterous. A spilt would cause wars with the turks fighting kurds, Iranians fighting with Shi'ia against Sunnis in western Iraq and Syria. The whole thing would be a mess. The three groups in Iraq need to stop fucking around, come together, and make Iraq better for tommorrow instead of fighting with each other and causing problems for America and its armed services.

now we see (take with a pinch of salt) that sadamms killing everyone was the only way to stop the country tearing itself apart.

Somalia!!!!

Ayatollah State.

To the everlasting pain of all good Sunni Arabs.

Should I cry?

Looking at Iraq today, the hope that it will be a unified democratic state is just a fantasy now. The way I see it is that the best case scenario is that the country will be divided into three seperate states; one for the Sunni's, one for the Kurds, and one for the Shi'ites, in a worst case scenario, the country will descend into an all out civil war. What do you think?
I think it is a bad idia i am not saying it wont work for the time being but what about the big picture , eventualy the 3 state system will colaps just look at palistine and israil its uter caos but at the way things are going at the moment i think its going to hapen whether we want it or not,

I daresay even the Iranian President isn't that stupid.

The Iranian President needs the permission of Ayatollah Khameini to declare war.

The Iranian President needs the permission of Ayatollah Khameini to declare war.

*raised eyebrow*
What makes you assume president Jihad is more Constitution-conscious than The shrub?

US leaves, Iran finishes the job it tried to do in the last two wars, and a new superpower is born. (at least until the oil runs out)

Odds are--The puppet US led government will find a strongman. That strongman will do what it takes to get the country under control. He will leave the legislature in place so the US can telll it's citizens that it's a "democracy". Of course, when it comes time for leadership change it won't come because it's too dangerous to change leaders "at this time"--which means for the next 40 years. The country will find peace, ala Vietnam. The US will take credit for this peace until the puppet leader starts to think he's actually in charge of Bushnam. Then the US will do whatever is economically needed at the time.

Odds are--The puppet US led government will find a strongman. That strongman will do what it takes to get the country under control. He will leave the legislature in place so the US can telll it's citizens that it's a "democracy". Of course, when it comes time for leadership change it won't come because it's too dangerous to change leaders "at this time"--which means for the next 40 years. The country will find peace, ala Vietnam. The US will take credit for this peace until the puppet leader starts to think he's actually in charge of Bushnam. Then the US will do whatever is economically needed at the time.
Actually thats about right. A strongman is the only thing that can keep a nation with 3 groups that shouldnt be together in the 1st place, together.

I see two distinct possibilities. Either it'll fragment into states based upon religions/ethnic grounds, or after the US finally gets out it'll be invaded by it's neighbors and divided up.


There is no more Iraq.

When Coalition Forces leave Iraq:
Iran (if still Independent) would support Shi'ite factions in a war against the Sunni factions for dominance over what’s left of Iraq.
The Kurds would get greater autonomy and become a greater problem for Turkey due to the number of Kurds living in their territory.
Both Shi'ite and Sunni factions fighting for control of the Oil for revenue for their continued wars.

Lets hope that Iran and China don't form a pact. I sure dubya would be stupid enough to nuke Iran and start WWIII. It's gonna be US/Europe/Russia vs Iran/Iraq/China.Russia is about as likely to help the "West" as China the Iranians (which means: not at all).

When Coalition Forces leave Iraq:
Iran (if still Independent) would support Shi'ite factions in a war against the Sunni factions for dominance over what’s left of Iraq.
The Kurds would get greater autonomy and become a greater problem for Turkey due to the number of Kurds living in their territory.
Both Shi'ite and Sunni factions fighting for control of the Oil for revenue for their continued wars.

Sounds about right
:headbang:

Dont you think Iraq is becoiming more like vietnam by the day?