NationStates Jolt Archive

What if the Rusians won the Russo-Japan War?

Just wondering..

They'd have probably lost it again soon enough. The inhabitants rising up or somesuch. Ultimately all the factors militated against them.

Even if they did manage to hold it, it was Bloody Sunday that was the true spark for the 1905 Revolution, and that was a labour, rather than an anti-war, march.

If Russians won the Russo-Japanese war we probably wouldn't have had the Manchurian war, which is a good thing, so the Chinese wouldn't constantly bash on Japanese politics (UN issue)

They wouldn't have sent a massive fleet half-way round the world to get smashed to pieces.

The 1905 revolution may have never happened, and maybe not even the later one in 1917.

And there are funny stories from that War, like the Russian admiral trying to run away from the older ships the Tsar forced him to take, even though they were next to useless and just a liability.

Think there's a book on this? There's ones for a bunch of other "What if A won..." scenarios...

Think there's a book on this? There's ones for a bunch of other "What if A won..." scenarios...

Counterfactuals? I don't know about a book, but they get published in the uber-history circles.

They'd have probably lost it again soon enough. The inhabitants rising up or somesuch. Ultimately all the factors militated against them.

Even if they did manage to hold it, it was Bloody Sunday that was the true spark for the 1905 Revolution, and that was a labour, rather than an anti-war, march.
It's possible that the 1905 Revolution would have occurred anyway, and the Japanese would have used the political turmoil in Russia to retaliate. This could have caused the fall of the new government, giving absolute power back to the Tsar, ultimately strengthening his position and reducing the level of revolutionary activity in Russia. So the Bolshevik revolution may not have occurred, or would have been easily suppressed, or would have happened much later.

Counterfactuals? I don't know about a book, but they get published in the uber-history circles.

There are a few books, but the ones I have seen the most are simply called "What if..." and "More what if..." I have and have read both of them. Very interesting, if a bit far fetched in some cases. Great fun in fact some of them.

Though in the set up of each conterfactual they have to give quite a bit of actual history to set the scence.

If they had won the war, Russia would have needed a fair few troops back in the capital asap, making the new territory quite weak. I don't think winning the war would have stopped the 1905 revolution. That said, if the war had required more troops for one final push, it isn't beyond possibility that the Czar would have left himself vulnerable to the revolution by having too few troops in garrison to protect him as he sent them to the east. He could have been over thrown by the time the troops returned from the east along the congested trans siberian railway.

The massive loss of life and diversion of money would still have been there, possibly to a greater extent, which would have lead to the same turmoil. Nicholas did not run the government well at all and the revolution was inevitable.