NationStates Jolt Archive

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aWESsJvt6CFE&refer=asia

Here we go. I hope this doesn't turn out to be anything, but I have a bad feeling about this...

Seven Indonesian Bird Flu Cases Linked to Patients (Update1)

May 23 (Bloomberg) -- All seven people infected with bird flu in a cluster of Indonesian cases can be linked to other patients, according to disease trackers investigating possible human-to-human transmission of the H5N1 virus.

A team of international experts has been unable to find animals that might have infected the people, the World Health Organization said in a statement today. In one case, a 10-year- old boy who caught the virus from his aunt may have passed it to his father, the first time officials have seen evidence of a three-person chain of infection, an agency spokeswoman said. Six of the seven people have died.

Almost all of the 218 cases of H5N1 infections confirmed by the WHO since late 2003 can be traced to direct contact with sick or dead birds. Strong evidence of human-to-human transmission may prompt the global health agency to convene a panel of experts and consider raising the pandemic alert level, said Maria Cheng, an agency spokeswoman.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aWESsJvt6CFE&refer=asia

Here we go. I hope this doesn't turn out to be anything, but I have a bad feeling about this...

As Bush said "That's when it's dangerous: when it goes bird-human-human." Guess I'll stay out of Indonesia for a while.

oh snap get the gas maskes boys here comes the apocolapse took ya long enough Ive been waiting for a mass extiniction of the human race for a while might as well get it over with

We can only hope that it takes out a couple billion.

Might be the best thing that could happen.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aWESsJvt6CFE&refer=asia

Here we go. I hope this doesn't turn out to be anything, but I have a bad feeling about this...


One way or another, it looks like we're going to have to deal with it.

I hope we are ready.

we dident get to the stars so now A whole bunch of people are going to die its the worlds way of saying "either get the fuck off of the planet or ill fucking kill you" can you say world war 3 ?:sniper: :sniper: :mp5: :mp5: :gundge: :mp5: :gundge: :mp5: :mp5: :sniper:

Woohoo!

we dident get to the stars so now A whole bunch of people are going to die its the worlds way of saying "either get the fuck off of the planet or ill fucking kill you" can you say world war 3 ?:sniper: :sniper: :mp5: :mp5: :gundge: :mp5: :gundge: :mp5: :mp5: :sniper:
Your post looks liek spam.

We can only hope that it takes out a couple billion.
Depending upon its virulency, and thereby it's rate of contagion versus rate of mortality, and also depending upon where it emerges first (as a pure human to human strain), death tolls could easily reach the 8 digit mark. The Spanish Flu killed close to 100 million people, and the heaviest hit areas were not nearly as densely populated as South East Asia. If the human strain that emerges does so before large scale vaccination is possible, and if it's virulency is high but stays dormant long enough to cause mass contagion before mortality, you could easily see comparable figures from SE Asia alone. Of course, depending upon when it emerges, other areas of the world could be either hard hit, or not hit at all (depending of course upon how quickly contaminated areas are put into quarantine). Either way, if the human strain emerges any time soon (within the next 2-5 years for instance) I don't think we'll be ready, and I think the deathtoll could be stupendous, with simply devastating effects on the global marketplace (manpower loss in SE Asia equates to a major loss in net production worldwide). Of course, it would also provide an opportunity for American manufacturing to reassert itself, but that would depend upon a multitude of factors.

meh, I'll survive it if it goes pandemic
I concentrate on my health

I think the fast food eaters and non-exercisers should be worried though

oh snap get the gas maskes boys here comes the apocolapse took ya long enough Ive been waiting for a mass extiniction of the human race for a while might as well get it over with

Agh! *twitch* that ran through my head as a fast and unbroken sentence.

meh, I'll survive it if it goes pandemic
I concentrate on my health

I think the fast food eaters and non-exercisers should be worried though


Im sure even the best of health type of people will still get sick. You gotta remember most of the people in asia aren't obese burger eaters like most americans or whoever.

I doubt it'll be a major issue. Despite the good it would ultimately do for our genome and our planet we'll likely prevent billions from dying.

meh, I'll survive it if it goes pandemic
I concentrate on my health

I think the fast food eaters and non-exercisers should be worried though
Your diet would do nothing to help you. If a human strain emerges, it'll be virulent enough to effect you irregardless of your overall health level. Think plague, it's really the same deal (healthwise). You could be a star athlete and be hit as easily as average Joe on the street.

Im sure even the best of health type of people will still get sick. You gotta remember most of the people in asia aren't obese burger eaters like most americans or whoever.

"obese burger eaters like most americans or whoever."

Most moronic line of the day.

Im sure even the best of health type of people will still get sick. You gotta remember most of the people in asia aren't obese burger eaters like most americans or whoever.

Aren't a lot of them poor, malnourished, and with crappy healthcare?

Well people always say i am cold, but its just natures way of population control, and lets face it many african and some asian country have too large a population to support.

More food for the survivors.

Desperate times, desperate measures. Indonesia is fucked already, theres nothing we can do for it. It needs an international blockade, no-one gets in or out. Anyone trying to break through gets sunk, shot down, whatever is appropriate to stop them infecting other people. With luck, it can be contained in Indonesia, but if it reaches the Asian mainland, it'll become a pandemic before you can say "humanity is screwed".

In Soviet Russia, bird gets flu from you!

Okay, so either the strain "evolved" into a new strain with different traits or God created a germ to kill a whole bunch of us.

Okay, so either the strain "evolved" into a new strain with different traits or God created a germ to kill a whole bunch of us.

Maybe it's punishment because the Asians aren't Christian! </patRobertson>

Desperate times, desperate measures. Indonesia is fucked already, theres nothing we can do for it. It needs an international blockade, no-one gets in or out. Anyone trying to break through gets sunk, shot down, whatever is appropriate to stop them infecting other people. With luck, it can be contained in Indonesia, but if it reaches the Asian mainland, it'll become a pandemic before you can say "humanity is screwed".

Haven't you heard of modern jet travel thousands of people will have already left Indonesia by now entirely unware of this. Imagine two people on sepreate planes are infect. the contagion spreads to theri fellow passengers on the flight to a major global hub - whamm that's why it is likely to be much worse than the Spanish flu(if it is highly contagious human to human.)

Im sure even the best of health type of people will still get sick. You gotta remember most of the people in asia aren't obese burger eaters like most americans or whoever.


Maybe I will get sick, but I doubt I have anythign to actually worry about as whenever I catch a cold that everyone else has, it affects me only very slightly anymore, while everyone else whines about how they wish they were dead.

Haven't you heard of modern jet travel thousands of people will have already left Indonesia by now entirely unware of this. Imagine two people on sepreate planes are infect. the contagion spreads to theri fellow passengers on the flight to a major global hub - whamm that's why it is likely to be much worse than the Spanish flu(if it is highly contagious human to human.)
More importantly than flying planes is flying birds. How do you suppose we quarentine them?

Your diet would do nothing to help you. If a human strain emerges, it'll be virulent enough to effect you irregardless of your overall health level. Think plague, it's really the same deal (healthwise). You could be a star athlete and be hit as easily as average Joe on the street.

wishful thinking that the less healthy will be able to pull thru it as easily as as those who make health a priority.

I say, Bring it on! :D

Haven't you heard of modern jet travel thousands of people will have already left Indonesia by now entirely unware of this. Imagine two people on sepreate planes are infect. the contagion spreads to theri fellow passengers on the flight to a major global hub - whamm that's why it is likely to be much worse than the Spanish flu(if it is highly contagious human to human.)

Yes, it probably already has left Indonesia. Even so, stopping travel now may reduce the spread of the virus, or if we're incredibly lucky it may stop it in Indonesia.

And PsychoticDan, I realise that we can't quarantine birds. Even so, the threat here is human-to-human transmission. If a second, independent development of a human-to-human strain develops elsewhere, we deal wiith that when it happens.

wishful thinking that the less healthy will be able to pull thru it as easily as as those who make health a priority.

I say, Bring it on! :D
and it's found that Trans Fats actually kill the bird flu virus... :D

and it's found that Trans Fats actually kill the bird flu virus... :D


d'oh

*sneezes then dies*

wishful thinking that the less healthy will be able to pull thru it as easily as as those who make health a priority.

I say, Bring it on! :D
I'm pretty healthy. Don't work out, but love riding my bike and walking pretty much everyday. Eat food that I cook mostly. 6'2" 200 pounds.

having said that, how much do you want to bet that the real survival trait here isn't how physically fit you are, but how smart you are. If you're smart enough to prepare and not get it in the first place...

I've survived West Nile, Mad Cow, SARS and the common cold; I highly doubt I'll bite it when a chicken sneezes on me.

I'm pretty healthy. Don't work out, but love riding my bike and walking pretty much everyday. Eat food that I cook mostly. 6'2" 200 pounds.

having said that, how much do you want to bet that the real survival trait here isn't how physically fit you are, but how smart you are. If you're smart enough to prepare and not get it in the first place...


So you are saying that having a stronger immune system won't be a factor in survival of this flu?

This is poor. Very poor. I shall watch with interest, and buy some emergency supplies just in case.

http://www.comedycentral.com/sitewide/media_player/play.jhtml?itemId=68928

Explains it pretty well.

So you are saying that having a stronger immune system won't be a factor in survival of this flu?
being physically fit and having a strong immune system is not the same thing.

Your immune system actually gets stronger when it's exposed to viruses and deseases. How you take care of yourself during an illness strenthens the immune system. not running and jogging.

being physically fit and having a strong immune system is not the same thing.

Your immune system actually gets stronger when it's exposed to viruses and deseases. How you take care of yourself during an illness strenthens the immune system. not running and jogging.


I never said that being physically fit was the only way to be healthy.

I never go to the doctor when I get a cold. I fight it with vitamins and minerals and never use antibiotics or medicines to cover up the symptoms. I get over my colds faster (and MUCh less often) than anyone I know, except for my wife who has the same methods and diet and also gets over her illnesses quickly.

I am exposed to the germs but they just dont affect me as badly if at all.

But trust me, your diet certainly does make a difference in your immune system. You also want to make sure you relieve stress, laugh and think positive as much as possible as that also affects it.

In Soviet Russia, bird gets flu from you!


Best quote of the day.

This is poor. Very poor. I shall watch with interest, and buy some emergency supplies just in case.

I'm already sitting on an 18 month supply of food for my family, along with thousands of rounds of ammunition and several firearms.

A plethora of other survival goodies as well.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aWESsJvt6CFE&refer=asia

Here we go. I hope this doesn't turn out to be anything, but I have a bad feeling about this...

Appreciate the info. It went human to human back in January or February of 2006 though was in the lower part of the respiratory system which is why it was quite difficult to pass from human to human at the time. However it the virus mutated then we would be faced with a big problem. Currently there are two forms of the deadly strain as it has already mutated once, however until this article the most likely way of catching it was from birds and possibly other animals such as cats (see BBC NEWS, CTV News Net for info or ask me I have articles). Hopefully this is just a case of these people having come into contact with a bird or animal or this is another virus though we were warned that if we start seeing clusters of unexplained deaths that it was on the verge of an epidemic possibly.

After reading the article, I further wish to note the following information the article states:


Health officials earlier found strong evidence of direct human-to-human spread of H5N1 in Thailand in 2004. Scientists reported in the Jan. 27, 2005, issue of the New England Journal of Medicine that the H5N1 virus probably spread from an 11-year- old girl in Thailand to her aunt and mother, killing the mother and daughter. People who had more casual contact with the girl didn't become infected.



In the Sumatran cluster, close, direct contact with a severely ill person was also needed for spread, Cheng said. Preliminary findings from the investigation indicate that the woman who died, considered to be the initial case, was coughing frequently while the three others spent the night in the same room. …
``It looks like the same behavior pattern'' of close contact and caretaking during illness with the bird flu virus, Cheng said. …
… ``To date, the investigation has found no evidence of spread within the general community and no evidence that efficient human-to-human transmission has occurred.''


What can be determined from the article is the following:
-those in extreme close contact who were caretaking for the initial victim are the only ones who have so far been found with the virus
-the virus was transmitted human to human
-a previous case of human to human transmission was found in 2004 but was deemed to be only due to extremely close contact with an infected person

Conclusion:
-keep listening to the media to see what else we can find about this case. BBC News and other international sources I usually use have yet to note anything about it yet. I am checking the Sydney Morning Herald as I post this for the record.