NationStates Jolt Archive

Your views on the outcome ?

Is this a hypothesis or some fact? (I don't watch the news much lately)

Verge of war?

Last I heard there was a collision between 2 military aircraft.

What makes you think they're on the verge of war?

Ever heard of a little island called Cyprus? And we know one of the planes shouldn't have been in the airspace of the other cuntry, and it was a military plane too...

Greece would lose, I presume. Turkey is too powerful. This is assuming ceteris paribus. That is not so though. Greece is a member of the EU, and holds the key to Turkey's entry. It has the support of other EU countries who loathe Turkey and would look for any excuse to foil its entry (e.g. Germany, Austria) and its old ally, Russia. Turkey would become a political pariah and cast deeper into the dark ages than it already is. Ergo, the incentive for such a war is non-existent.

Greece can't lose from it, really. They stand to gain Cyprus. So they have every motive to use this as a casus belli.

Well its always the same the trukish government wich has the backing of the United States always trys to pull rank over greece but when shit hits the fan then the United States steps in and warns turkey to chill out of loose what ever defence contracts it has with the U.S.

Back in the 80's when turkey showed its teeth to greece and more less said that if they block a ship wich was doing underwater reaserch wich in actuall fact it was looking for oil withing the greek territorial waters they would attack greece. Well since greece and turkey are NATO allies and since either NATO or United States wanted to get their hands dirty with the possibility of war greece just turned around and told the NATO and the U.S., since you cant controll your dogs and no-one respects the NATO treay well take our money and geopolitical area and agree to move with the Wasaw pact....suprise suprise the U.S. and NATO bit the turkish ass off and stated to em to chill and shut the F..ck up.

*snip
Plus, many European nations would love to sink their fangs into Turkey (Austria, Russia, Germany et al). This wouldn't go well for Turkey, and it would definitely lose its EU membership candidacy (as if that is gonna happen anyway).

Plus, many European nations would love to sink their fangs into Turkey (Austria, Russia, Germany et al). This wouldn't go well for Turkey, and it would definitely lose its EU membership candidacy (as if that is gonna happen anyway).

Thats something the U.S. are in a dilema, knowing that the turkish are unable to have a stabel democracy and that there introduction into eu will cause major problems whith the U.S. as far as military spending is concerned. But either way Germany Austria Russia and France do have and old score to settle with turkey as they have repeatedly downgraded the role of those country's in major descision making events.

Thats something the U.S. are in a dilema, knowing that the turkish are unable to have a stabel democracy and that there introduction into eu will cause major problems whith the U.S. as far as military spending is concerned. But either way Germany Austria Russia and France do have and old score to settle with turkey as they have repeatedly downgraded the role of those country's in major descision making events.
The thing is Turkey's current government is not committed to a secular government; Erdogan wants Islam to creep back into Turkish politics. Paradoxically (or not, given Turkish history) the Military is the one who wants him to back down. It is going to get bad if he gets his way. Many in the EU are indeed bitter over Turkey though, as is Russia, so Turkey has to tread carefully. Plus, like you said, the US has to balance its objectives. A friendly EU is far more important than Turkey.

Obviously enought the eu market is far greater and much more stable compared to the turkish rejime

I'm not sure Turkey will ever enter the EU, unless it most sincerely commits to reform...and even then, it has too many enemies within (without) the EU. The EU may prioritise Russia over Turkey, which would be logical.

The outcome of this hypothetical situation? Peace.

...after the nation that's labeled as the attacker loses.
Isn't NATO fun? ;)

Greece would obviously win, because if it ever was in any real danger, the EU would step in to save it.

And Turkey wouldn't last too long against the combined forced of the UK, France and Germany (Russia might tag along too if it could). And if all else failed there, the USA would begrudingly send some troops to fight Turkey (if it could find some spare ones).

So, Turkey has lost before its started.

*starts chanting* Tur-Key! Tur-Key! Tur-Key!... etc

Its just pilots keeping their skills sharp, in turkiye we don't see Greece as a match or a problem unless they try to burn our flag or call us stupid names :p

I hope they will find the missing greek pilot, he is a human after all and I would feel sorry for loss of a highly trained professional in times of peace. They are our NATO allies, It will just take them time to understand that and stop using making their people fear us to gain more votes.

There is no possibilty of war because in turkiye public wants just more economic reforms, less crime and a stop to terror etc. Politicians have nothing to gain from it, army has nothing to gain from it etc.
We have both way tourism, my buddies were over to the Iron Maiden concert over there and their greek pals were to Manowar concert over here and all is fine. Over the Cyprus there wouldnt have been a problem in 70's if Rums just didnt decided to claim whole island for themselves by systematically killing all turkish population. Thanks to Orthodox church for that.
U.S. back then used Cyprus to blocade weapon sells to turkiye and selling black market weapons themselves over the risk of war. Smart action :cool:

*snip*
Exactly. Turkey has no incentives to declare a war right now. Not only would it endager its EU membership, get crushed by European powers and the US, but it would also throw away all the change it has achieved.

Well, I agree with you guys - there's less than no chance of war right now... at least, unless things change radically... well, if they do, then Iran'll probably go in with Turkey, and they've got nukes, and then... well, I'd advise selling short on any firms that own hotels in the region...

Well, I agree with you guys - there's less than no chance of war right now... at least, unless things change radically... well, if they do, then Iran'll probably go in with Turkey, and they've got nukes, and then... well, I'd advise selling short on any firms that own hotels in the region...
Too delicate a power of balance to upset. The US, Russia and the EU? That would be suicide. Russia is economically benefitting from Iran, but were it to side with its traditional enemy, Turkey, Russia would drop all sympathies.

Greece would obviously win, because if it ever was in any real danger, the EU would step in to save it.

And Turkey wouldn't last too long against the combined forced of the UK, France and Germany (Russia might tag along too if it could). And if all else failed there, the USA would begrudingly send some troops to fight Turkey (if it could find some spare ones).

So, Turkey has lost before its started.
Whoa thats big. There is no possibility of war but you vastly underestimate the power of turkish army. Apperently you dont know the the closed door scenarios and simulations run in pentagon. They simulated an U.S. invasion of Turkiye, which failed and ended in U.S. great loss of power and fleets over entire middle east. And dont think that EU would prove better, Russia would side with us as US will and that will greatly influence englands stance.
But I wont talk more about it, because it will simply turn over a piss race. We are no invaders and our public does not approve such things, even if we take pride over our capabilities. We didnt accepted to invade Irak with America, even when politicans proved weak our people said no. And will say no again to any war for any amount of money or gain. What we need is to improve what we have in hand and we will be rich by our own labor and land.

The only way for us to engage any country is to be attacked first.

Whoa thats big. There is no possibility of war but you vastly underestimate the power of turkish army. Apperently you dont know the the closed door scenarios and simulations run in pentagon. They simulated an U.S. invasion of Turkiye, which failed and ended in U.S. great loss of power and fleets over entire middle east. And dont think that EU would prove better, Russia would side with us as US will and that will greatly influence englands stance.
Do tell, why would Russia side with you? :p If you honestly believe that Turkey can withstand the combined might of the EU, Russia and the US (the US has no economic interest to side with you over the EU), you are deluded.

Your views on the outcome ?

The outcome?

Greasy turkey. :)

The outcome?

Greasy turkey. :)
Good one. :p

Do tell, why would Russia side with you? :p If you honestly believe that Turkey can withstand the combined might of the EU, Russia and the US (the US has no economic interest to side with you over the EU), you are deluded.
I said it would turn over to piss race so I deny you that pleasure. I wont change your mind, its better for anyone to underestimate us anyway.

I said it would turn over to piss race so I deny you that pleasure. I wont change your mind, its better for anyone to underestimate us anyway.
I don't underestimate Turkey, I am just unconvinced that it would come out victorious under any such circumstances. The relation between its government and army is already strained, so I would see anything good coming out of it.

Whoa thats big. There is no possibility of war but you vastly underestimate the power of turkish army. Apperently you dont know the the closed door scenarios and simulations run in pentagon. They simulated an U.S. invasion of Turkiye, which failed and ended in U.S. great loss of power and fleets over entire middle east. And dont think that EU would prove better, Russia would side with us as US will and that will greatly influence englands stance.

Yeah, that is big, thats generally the whole point of NATO. :P

But, you must admitt that stating Turkery could take over the ALL of the West is slightly unrealistic (but I appaul your patritism, almost as loyal as an Irish Prodestant).

Anyway, I doubt the idea of the West would be to conquer Turkey, just push them out of Greece and maybe Cyprus if they are naughty.
After that, Turkey would never be allowed in the EU and chucked out of NATO.

But, this is completely hypothectical, as Turkey has no cause for war.

snip snip...
But, you must admitt that stating Turkery could take over the ALL of the West is slightly unrealistic (but I appaul your patritism, almost as loyal as an Irish Prodestant). snip snip

Well thank you :D I dont mean to take over or anything its strange to see where things come to. After all we are a Nato member and one of the early ones when there were only few members of it. Turkish military always took part in all Nato exercises and actions.
As the cold war is over and nearly everyone is in NATO I wonder who can have a war without its interference?


By the way let me tell you why I take pride in being patriotic and being turk. Whenever our military goes to somewhere over a NAto mission etc. people like them. In afghanistan people love turkish soldiers. Send same place another army and they will kill soldiers but when you send turkish soldiers people hug them.
The reason: we dont employ psychopatic and drugged killers as soldiers but our main body of soldiers are composed of me you and the ordinary guy. Given a rifle and a patriotic speech. And they are peaceful, unlikely to kill or intimidate for fun. Under some good leaders they dont give ground, as a force of 5000 stopped 100.000s of chinese soldiers for a looong long time in Korea protecting south Korean citizens and covering Us assess as they withdrew.
I watched an old Turk soldier cry, who defended a bridge all by himself against overwhelming enemy forces and saved civillians behind the bridge. He was crying because one of the children he saved was now a grown up man, an officer in the Korean army. They hug they cried and I cried too, soldiering is an honor and an emotional thing in our culture. ITs not killing, its living.
By the way we like Irısh, we like Scottish, we like Koreans, we like Japanese, and its a love shared both side.
Whenever you start to think bad about Turkiye I invite you to come and see it by you eyes, have a little holiday. You will like us too, we are the opposite of french lol :D (I will one day become the propaganda minister !)

*snip*
As much as I respect the military, you romanticise it a bit too much. That said, I think your military is at least more commendable than your government under Erdogan.

Well thank you :D I dont mean to take over or anything its strange to see where things come to. After all we are a Nato member and one of the early ones when there were only few members of it. Turkish military always took part in all Nato exercises and actions.
As the cold war is over and nearly everyone is in NATO I wonder who can have a war without its interference?

<snip>


Please tell me you dont like EU....

As much as I respect the military, you romanticise it a bit too much. That said, I think your military is at least more commendable than your government under Erdogan.
Erdogan has to go down, grrr he and his guys should lose their politic untouchabilities and judged for their crimes. He stands against everything I believe right.He is an enemy of the state in my eyes, a faschist and potential threat to stability of Republic and democracy.
For not choosing one straight leader since 1950 I hate my people. They are democratic enough to vote for a woman to be prime minister (back in 90s we had a chick as prime minister who as far as I believe was an american agent) but they are dumb enough to continiously vote for corrupt politicians who use them.
We have to do many politic reforms against corruption.

Please tell me you dont like EU....
I dont get it why? Its good for me either way we are in or out of EU. I just want us to know our place and draw our direction into future. Stability and growth are what I care about. Liking or not liking are irrevelant to the needs of the country. I would ally with even my worst enemy if its to my profit and EU is certainly not my enemy unless it makes itself so.
Incase you havent noticed we are not battering gates of Vienna anymore :D Its age of trade not age of war.

...does turkey have an information minister? :D

...does turkey have an information minister? :D
We have a culture minister that keeps falling asleep :D does that count?

Meh, like there will be war. Both foreign ministers have expressed their regrets and said that this wouldn't affect relationships.

The Greek pilot, sadly, was killed.

I don't know what this is about, but anywho, greece has the backing of the EU, and Turkey would NEVER dream of attacking an EU member...well besides Cyprus..becuase of the whole possible membership thing.

Your views on the outcome ?
No they aren't. It will be a frozen day in hell before Greece and Turkey go to war. Greece couldn't take the loss. Turkey would be permanently shut out of the EU it desperately wants to get into.

I don't know what this is about, but anywho, greece has the backing of the EU, and Turkey would NEVER dream of attacking an EU member...well besides Cyprus..becuase of the whole possible membership thing.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/5008178.stm

I hate to ruin this speculation but the NATO charter quite clearly forbids two members to go to war with each other, and both governments concerned agreed within moments that this incident should just be swept under the carpet and that it should not get in the way of improving the ties between these two countries (that have been ruled by the same state more often than not and whose cultural ties are much much deeply than the largely friendly rivalry that exists between them).

Oh, and Cyprus is by no means a military hot potato, there is very little chance of war escalating. I personally think that the Greek Cypriots should swallow their pride and accept the Republic of North Cyprus.

Also remember that Turko-US relations were strained when turkey refused a multi-billion dollar offer to let US soldiers stage attacks on Iraq from its territory.

Whenever you start to think bad about Turkiye I invite you to come and see it by you eyes, have a little holiday. You will like us too, we are the opposite of french lol :D (I will one day become the propaganda minister !)

Lol, yeah I know for a fact Turkiye is a pretty cool place. Weren't they one of the first countries to give women sufferage or something? Nevermind.

But, IF they were to go to war, I doubt there actually would be an outcome now that I think about it. The Big Countries would come and make them stop. And if that didnt work... Ireland would stop it. See Ireland would invite the World over for a Pint at McDoyle's Pub, and everyone would stop fighting.
Forever.
:D
If only wars could be settled with a pint and maybe some crisps....

Also remember that Turko-US relations were strained when turkey refused a multi-billion dollar offer to let US soldiers stage attacks on Iraq from its territory.
Yep. It's not as if Turkey has got the world on its side anymore.

I don't see any reason to believe the US (or large European countries like the UK, France or Germany) would support Greece over Turkey in a hypothetical conflict.

Turkey's strategic importance far outweighs Greece's for a start.

In any case I think the Greece/Turkey rivalry is far less of an issue then it used to be. Both countries seem to have become more self confident and democratic and less nationalistic then the past. They also both have more (and less stable) neighbours to deal with than before: Greece in the Balkans and Turkey in the Caucasus. Compared to the other countries they border they actually have a lot in common.

Has everyone forgotten that there is already a UN peace-keeping force (largely British) on Cyprus to prevent flash points getting out of hand on the island, both sides would have a lot to lose from such a conflcit and nothing worthwhile to gain - it won't happen.

Exactly. Turkey has no incentives to declare a war right now. Not only would it endager its EU membership, get crushed by European powers and the US, but it would also throw away all the change it has achieved.

The US would stay out of it. Turkey and Greece are both in a thing called NATO! NATO will not step in and help either side.

Come on people, who are you kidding? The EU stand up militarily against Turkey? What a joke. There's no effective EU military command, the only countries in the EU capable of taking on such a mission are the UK and France and the UK is already over committed and the French spend their time and energy making white flags to wave at whatever country decides to invade them. :rolleyes: The Turks have half a million men in their army alone - an army equipped by the Americans.

Anyway, the Greeks and Turks are always razzing each other over those little islands in thee Aegean. Its nothing more than the usual state of affairs and the incident with the planes will probably be forgotten a few weeks down the line (unless one of the two countries ego's gets out of control).

Personally I can't understand why Turkey would even consider joining such a corrupt, bloated, inefficient and out of touch organisation as the EU...

The US would stay out of it. Turkey and Greece are both in a thing called NATO! NATO will not step in and help either side.
Russia and and definitely the EU would though.

Russia and and definitely the EU would though.

You have a minor problem. Most of Western Europe is in NATO.

Come on people, who are you kidding? The EU stand up militarily against Turkey? What a joke. There's no effective EU military command, the only countries in the EU capable of taking on such a mission are the UK and France and the UK is already over committed and the French spend their time and energy making white flags to wave at whatever country decides to invade them. :rolleyes: The Turks have half a million men in their army alone - an army equipped by the Americans.
The UK could still mobilise as necessary. Also, the EU has 24 other nations. Wouldn't be that easy. Plus, Russia might step in- it's a traditional ally of Greece and antagonist of Turkey.

Anyway, the Greeks and Turks are always razzing each other over those little islands in thee Aegean. Its nothing more than the usual state of affairs and the incident with the planes will probably be forgotten a few weeks down the line (unless one of the two countries ego's gets out of control).
Agreed.

Personally I can't understand why Turkey would even consider joining such a corrupt, bloated, inefficient and out of touch organisation as the EU...
If you or your compatriots feel that why, by all means leave the EU.

You have a minor problem. Most of Western Europe is in NATO.
The EU would step in anyway, if one of its members were endagered, I would think.

The EU would step in anyway, if one of its members were endagered, I would think.

I don't believe they will. Greece and Turkey hate eachother anyway and always have. NATO didn't get involved the last time they fought and I don't believe they'll get involved this time around either.

Of course war between these two forces will not happen anyway.

I don't believe they will. Greece and Turkey hate eachother anyway and always have. NATO didn't get involved the last time they fought and I don't believe they'll get involved this time around either.
It could go either way.

Of course war between these two forces will not happen anyway.
Exactly. Too much for Turkey to lose to risk such a war.

The UK could still mobilise as necessary. Also, the EU has 24 other nations. Wouldn't be that easy. Plus, Russia might step in- it's a traditional ally of Greece and antagonist of Turkey.

The UK hasn't got the spare forces to offer anything other than a token contribution to either sides armed forces.

Russia would be hard pressed to justify any form of interference as any action against either side could be construed as an attack against a NATO ally and therefore bring the rest of NATO in. The EU has no military structure as the majority of its members are committed to NATO over and above the EU. Anyway, Greece is hardly the most useful/worthwhile members of the EU.


If you or your compatriots feel that why, by all means leave the EU.

I'd be delighted to. I don't think we'll ever be given the choice unfortunately.

The UK hasn't got the spare forces to offer anything other than a token contribution to either sides armed forces.

Russia would be hard pressed to justify any form of interference as any action against either side could be construed as an attack against a NATO ally and therefore bring the rest of NATO in. The EU has no military structure as the majority of its members are committed to NATO over and above the EU. Anyway, Greece is hardly the most useful/worthwhile members of the EU.
I still think Russia would intervene. Although perhaps you have a point about the EU, it is too paralysed and inefficient right now to muster military responses to anything other than severe attacks on its members.

I'd be delighted to. I don't think we'll ever be given the choice unfortunately.
Should your nation suffer economic disaster though, you have only yourselves to blame.

Meh, like there will be war. Both foreign ministers have expressed their regrets and said that this wouldn't affect relationships.

The Greek pilot, sadly, was killed.
True, true...

The US would stay out of it. Turkey and Greece are both in a thing called NATO! NATO will not step in and help either side.
I believe you are mistaken. NATO - including the US - would probably step in and help the country that is being attacked, if said country invoked Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.


The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .

I believe you are mistaken. NATO - including the US - would probably step in and help the country that is being attacked, if said country invoked Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

And if they are both in NATO?

And if they are both in NATO?
Wouldn't matter. The organisation would come to the aid of the attacked member, even if the attacker is another member state.

Remember, acts of agression is not allowed. Self-defence is permissible.

Wouldn't matter. The organisation would come to the aid of the attacked member, even if the attacker is another member state.

Remember, acts of agression is not allowed. Self-defence is permissible.

Now here's an interesting question. What is considered self defense? Using Force to defend your people seems like self defense to me even if you attack someone pre-emptively.

Now here's an interesting question. What is considered self defense? Using Force to defend your people seems like self defense to me even if you attack someone pre-emptively.
There's your answer.

There's your answer.

Even if it is in self defense?

Even if it is in self defense?
They would have to prove that it was in self-defence, and give sufficient argument in that direction. Were they to aver it, then the true aggressor would be punished accordingly. I don't see how they would though, on either side.

Now here's an interesting question. What is considered self defense? Using Force to defend your people seems like self defense to me even if you attack someone pre-emptively.
Pre-emptive attacks are tricky situations indeed. But in order to be able to carry out a pre-emptive strike an armed attack on your country must be very close at hand - probably even imminent (For example forces rallying on the other side of your border, like just before Israel bombed Egypt, Syria and Jordan befor the start of the six-day war).

Exactly where the line is drawn for self defence is difficult to say. There is not a wide margin for offensive self-defence, however, and a pre-emptive war would be an example of going too far.
(The defensive action has to be proportional and appropriate)

A collapse of the Turkish government might be good for the US, actually. It would solve the Kurdish problem in Iraq.

Well, firstly I don't think there could possibly be anything even resembling a war.

Secondly, the EU has no interest in sinking any teeth into anything. May I remind you that Turkey is a member of NATO.

No they aren't. It will be a frozen day in hell before Greece and Turkey go to war. Greece couldn't take the loss. Turkey would be permanently shut out of the EU it desperately wants to get into.


I hate to say that according to last years budget spending on military aresenal the turkish side minimised its spending not according to any financial report but from the direct orders form the eu russia and amist all of that america found it wise to withhold its arms sale to turkey. Understand one thing war is a billion dollar business but the U.S. has more to gain from an economy like the E.U. rather than the economy of turkey...its all dollars and cents or should i say Euro and cents