NationStates Jolt Archive

U.S. economy to crumble in 2007?

This is a tiny little slide show (http://www.cluborlov.com/ClubOrlov/ConfSlides/index.html), comparing the fall of the soviet union, cause and effects, to what the author sees as the inevitable fall of the usa.

Here is an article (http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/060105_soviet_lessons.shtml) by the same, in which he compares the nations themselves, and actually making quite interesting points, such as this:
A decade and a half ago the world went from bipolar to unipolar, because one of the poles fell apart: The S.U. is no more. The other pole – symmetrically named the U.S. – has not fallen apart – yet, but there are ominous rumblings on the horizon. The collapse of the United States seems about as unlikely now as the collapse of the Soviet Union seemed in 1985. The experience of the first collapse may be instructive to those who wish to survive the second.

Reasonable people would never argue that that the two poles were exactly symmetrical; along with significant similarities, there were equally significant differences, both of which are valuable in predicting how the second half of the clay-footed superpower giant that once bestrode the planet will fare once it too falls apart.

I have wanted to write this article for almost a decade now. Until recently, however, few people would have taken it seriously. After all, who could have doubted that the world economic powerhouse that is the United States, having recently won the Cold War and the Gulf War, would continue, triumphantly, into the bright future of superhighways, supersonic jets, and interplanetary colonies?

But more recently the number of doubters has started to climb steadily. The U.S. is desperately dependent on the availability of cheap, plentiful oil and natural gas, and addicted to economic growth. Once oil and gas become expensive (as they already have) and in ever-shorter supply (a matter of one or two years at most), economic growth will stop, and the U.S. economy will collapse. To the layperson, this could be true. I therefor call upon the learned Generalites to point out some of the falsehoods.

*bonk*

*bonk*
*wonders if this is getting embarrassing, promises not to do it again*

So like there isn't enough oil left in Texas stripper wells to power the U.S. millitary if they had to? So like if everybody is short of oil who's gonna like compete against the U.S.? Will the Japanese rule with world with their economical sub-compact aircraft carriers?

If you said to me the U.S. was rapidly losing ground to other powers due to short-sighted stupidity I might believe it, (I mean just look at the budget deficit) but expensive oil will cause the U.S. economy to collapse but not other economies? This guy needs to think harder.

I woulndt call it slander, just stupid communist propaganda.

So like there isn't enough oil left in Texas stripper wells to power the U.S. millitary if they had to? So like if everybody is short of oil who's gonna like compete against the U.S.? Will the Japanese rule with world with their economical sub-compact aircraft carriers?

If you said to me the U.S. was rapidly losing ground to other powers due to short-sighted stupidity I might believe it, (I mean just look at the budget deficit) but expensive oil will cause the U.S. economy to collapse but not other economies? This guy needs to think harder.
I think he is saying that the U.S. is extra vulnerable, partially because of said short-sighted stupidity.

I think that once the oil lobby no longer exists because the oil companies have all collapsed, we'll be switching to biodiesel pretty damn fast. :)

Of course, it'll take a few years to switch all our engines to biofuel-compatible ones, but that's what the strategic reserve is for.

Do I think the US (or anyone else) will collapse? No, but I think economic growth will stop while we make the transition to biofuel.

If anything, Brazil might gain the upper hand on us, they're already using sugar cane fuel.

By my logic America will survive peak oil because of the following:

1. Americans drive a lot.

2. Americans drive to gyms to exercise.

3. No oil - Americans have to walk and cycle and become healthier.

4. Savings on gym memberships and health care prevent economy from collasping.

5. Former gym workers join gangs of kidnappers that turn fat people into biodiesel.

6. Lack of fat people forces gym workers to get honest jobs.

By my logic America will survive peak oil because of the following:

1. Americans drive a lot.

2. Americans drive to gyms to exercise.

3. No oil - Americans have to walk and cycle and become healthier.

4. Savings on gym memberships and health care prevent economy from collasping.

5. Former gym workers join gangs of kidnappers that turn fat people into biodiesel.

6. Lack of fat people forces gym workers to get honest jobs.
Impeccable logic sir!:D

Impeccable logic sir!:D
Indeed. Flawless.

and in ever-shorter supply (a matter of one or two years at most), economic growth will stop, and the U.S. economy will collapse.

Estimates say about one half of all the oil that has ever existed, has been pulled out of the ground, after about 100 years or so of commercial drilling.
Considering we are drilling more and more each day, it will not take another century to run out.
More like fifty years or so.

Thats saying that oil is indeed a fossil fuel, and there is indeed a finite supply.
Theres a bit of evidence to the contrary, but lets move on.

In America, gas is at an all time high becuase some refineries that were destroyed during Katrina, are not yet operational, and the remaining ones we do have, are pumping at max capacity.
This means we are producing less gasoline.
Thus, the price climbs...the more demand you have..the more money you can get for your product.

But..eventually these pumping stations will we brought back online.
Oh yes...and Iraq. Chock full of the stuff Iraq is...kinda waiting to see if the place will errupt into a civil war to place any bets on higher oil production.

However, its not the availability that causes a serious problem, its the cost to remove the oil from where it lays.
If the middle east goes bust on us, we still have south america and Canada.

However, in two years, we arent going to see any implosion of our markets.
A gradual increase at the pumps...but nothing radically severe.

They isn't just on about oil. He also mentions the political system. He also cites and increasingly ineffcient economy.

Though he does seem quite into fearmongering.

He also mentions perestroika. Most of this suggestions to cope economic collapse will actually contribute to economic collapse. He recomends pulling capital out of the economy, and generally participating in the economy as little as possible.