NationStates Jolt Archive

*snip*

I had last been in Basra in March 2004 when the "battle for hearts and minds" was at its height. Patrols in armoured Land Rovers were welcomed with waves from children and soldiers walked through market places fully armed, but wearing their soft berets. Now they cannot go to the toilet on their bases without carrying their helmet and flak jacket.

*snip*

The marshes are home to farmers and fishermen. They also harbour militias and are the unofficial route for arms to be smuggled in from Iran.

*snip*

I went on patrol with the RAF in a helicopter, flying low over Basra city and then out over the isolated hamlets of the marshes. An airman manned a gun control on the side and one hung out the back. They still smile and wave at the people below, but no-one waves back now.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4980686.stm
Pretty devastating stuff. Is anyone really making a difference if things have become worse? Is the 3-year transition from cautious public enthusiasm to grim acceptance of a perceived-hostile occupation something to hold up as a success?

Pretty devastating stuff. Is anyone really making a difference if things have become worse? Is the 3-year transition from cautious public enthusiasm to grim acceptance of a perceived-hostile occupation something to hold up as a success?

But..but..but... I thought they were to have learned and gained all their experience from their success in Northern Ireland.....

But..but..but... I thought they were to have learned and gained all their experience from their success in Northern Ireland.....
The bits I snipped out of the article showed that they have - garrison rotations are performed by airlift, not convoy.

But logistics aside, the PR campaign seemed screwed as there isn't much of a political dimension to their presence. The extremists are gaining in popularity, as opposed to the Northern Ireland experience.

But..but..but... I thought they were to have learned and gained all their experience from their success in Northern Ireland.....
Ha. Ha.
The fact is you could be Jesus Christ Himself and still get the same reaction. Given the total bungling of much of the reconstruction of Iraq, utilities, schools hospitals etc. the soldiers and their continuing presence are always going to be seen as part of, if not the cause of, the reduced standard of living by the average Iraqi on the street. Even if they went round doing nothing but kissing babies and helping old grannies across the street that would still be the case. And I don't think fixing the problem now would do any good as the opportunity's been missed. If the rebuilding contractors had done their jobs and not embezzeled all the money, the contrast between Saddam's regime and the new Iraq would have been marked and opposition to the coalition forces would have been reduced.

Ha. Ha.
The fact is you could be Jesus Christ Himself and still get the same reaction.
To be fair, I imagine somebody in Iraq going about claiming to be the son of Allah might get an even worser reaction.

To be fair, I imagine somebody in Iraq going about claiming to be the son of Allah might get an even worser reaction.
Well they do believe that Jesus was a prophet. I mean if the Muslims have it right then Jesus wouldn't be claiming to be the son of God because he wasn't. :)

But..but..but... I thought they were to have learned and gained all their experience from their success in Northern Ireland.....
They have, they know have more people hating them, more people dying (though someone'll probably prove me wrong with evil statistics) and more problems, all developed over a much smaller time period. Isn't military progress wonderful.

If the rebuilding contractors had done their jobs and not embezzeled all the money, the contrast between Saddam's regime and the new Iraq would have been marked and opposition to the coalition forces would have been reduced.
That's a key issue which did occur to me a year ago when the first serious investigations into fraud over there started to bear fruit. The reconstruction companies never went into Iraq sharing the same goals as the political planners and the military. The planners wanted to rebuild Iraq. The military rank and file quickly reduced its goals to staying alive. The companies went in to make money.

Shareholders don't care whether their interests come into conflict with someone's geopolitical game. They want a return on their investment. So it never mattered whether the companies could achieve what they had been contracted to do. Primary contractors get paid by project milestone. It doesn't matter if the security situation "deteriorates" and they have "no choice but to pull out", they still get paid for digging a hole and pouring a foundation, and if that pulls the balance sheet into the black after relocation expenses, then they're happy and fuck the political project when the guys who got a concrete plinth instead of a hospital dig up their guns and start oiling.

That's a key issue which did occur to me a year ago when the first serious investigations into fraud over there started to bear fruit. The reconstruction companies never went into Iraq sharing the same goals as the political planners and the military. The planners wanted to rebuild Iraq. The military rank and file quickly reduced its goals to staying alive. The companies went in to make money.

That's an interesting way of putting it. And it only takes one of the three parties to not be singing from the same hymn sheet and you've got problems.
If the planners don't have a plan, you're stuffed before you even get going. If the contractors do do their jobs but the soldiers decide to shoot anyone who goes anywhere near them or looks suspicious, then it all falls to pieces.
And if the soldiers make an effort to help the reconstruction, hearts and minds, soft hats and mingling, it can be scuppered by the rebuilding efforts not proceeding.

Yes, that's it in a nutshell. It's like trying to light a campfire - fuel, heat, oxygen. Don't have enough of one, the whole lot is a failure.