NationStates Jolt Archive

In the last century it has risen....


0.7 degrees :eek: :eek: :rolleyes:

Well thats what BBC radio says anyway... I do believe in global warming, but do you believe that the press and tabloids are mainly trying to scare you and may be manipulating the truth just slightly?

It's a global average.

In the last century it has risen....


0.7 degrees :eek: :eek: :rolleyes:

Well thats what BBC radio says anyway... I do believe in global warming, but do you believe that the press is mainly trying to scare you and may be over exagerating?

Not really, especially when you take into account that a rise in temperature by just 2 degrees globally would be catastrophic.

0.7 degrees worldwide is pretty scary in that context.

Just the slightest bit of average temperature change is all it takes. A couple of degrees warmer on the average worldwide and ice caps melt (this is already happening in very dramatic ways) which causes the salinity of the oceans to decrease, which changes current patterns, which changes weather patterns... and it all becomes cyclical and escalates until there is nothing that can be done to stop it, and this causes another ice age. Yes, it seems counter intuitive, but, in fact, global warming leads to an ice age.

So any increase, no matter how small, is actually significant.

Meh. We're overdue for an ice age anyway (averaged), so our warming will be offset by the ice age, and we'll be fine.

Just the slightest bit of average temperature change is all it takes. A couple of degrees warmer on the average worldwide and ice caps melt (this is already happening in very dramatic ways) which causes the salinity of the oceans to decrease, which changes current patterns, which changes weather patterns... and it all becomes cyclical and escalates until there is nothing that can be done to stop it, and this causes another ice age. Yes, it seems counter intuitive, but, in fact, global warming leads to an ice age.

So any increase, no matter how small, is actually significant.

Yes it is a serious problem, but the ice caps have actually only existed for a very short time, i cant remember exactly but i think it was only a couple of thousand years maybe less maybe more.

Meh. We're overdue for an ice age anyway (averaged), so our warming will be offset by the ice age, and we'll be fine.
some scientist say that there should be an ice age at the moment...instead of rapid cooling we have rapid warming. Alarming? Of course not! Palm trees to Finland! Yay! 111!!!!

Becasue by the time the real catastrophic effects of global warming begin to take place, we will all be dead. It would take hundreds of thousands of years for a major climate change to take place. Screw the grandkids, let them worry about it...:sniper:

Becasue by the time the real catastrophic effects of global warming begin to take place, we will all be dead. It would take hundreds of thousands of years for a major climate change to take place. Screw the grandkids, let them worry about it...:sniper:
Houndreds of thousands of years?
You're so clueless it's almost unbelievable.

Meh, global warming exists, but human greenhouse gas emissions play a very small role in it. The Earth always goes through these cycles depending on the distance from the Sun, which changes slightly every year. We've had ice ages before there were cars and factories, you know.

Global warming -is- a threat. Just wanted to get that out there.

That being said: we probably can't do anything about it at this time. We've screwed the O-Zone layer beyond repair (as far as I can tell), and once we get warm enough, the ice age is probably not far behind.

Hopefully humans are exterminated completely so the earth can start over.

global warming is tbh a lot of scare mongering, the earth regulalry has short sprees and hot sprees, before the industrial revolution the ice caps show we had had a few hundred years of unusual coldness, this rise of omg 0.7 degrees is absolutely nothign to worry about it proves buggar all and although we do need to become greener there is no evidence that we are in trouble

Becasue by the time the real catastrophic effects of global warming begin to take place, we will all be dead. It would take hundreds of thousands of years for a major climate change to take place. Screw the grandkids, let them worry about it...:sniper:

Actually catastrophic effects may happen ,towards the end of this century.

Global warming -is- a threat. Just wanted to get that out there.

That being said: we probably can't do anything about it at this time. We've screwed the O-Zone layer beyond repair (as far as I can tell), and once we get warm enough, the ice age is probably not far behind.

Hopefully humans are exterminated completely so the earth can start over.

This has made me think of something intresting, IF global warming DOES happen, do you think humans will be able to survive it? Can they do it with great difficulty and suffering or with relative ease?

global warming is tbh a lot of scare mongering, the earth regulalry has short sprees and hot sprees, before the industrial revolution the ice caps show we had had a few hundred years of unusual coldness, this rise of omg 0.7 degrees is absolutely nothign to worry about it proves buggar all and although we do need to become greener there is no evidence that we are in trouble

Aside from the O-Zone layer itself falling apart.

Not really, especially when you take into account that a rise in temperature by just 2 degrees globally would be catastrophic.

0.7 degrees worldwide is pretty scary in that context.


If you read the article on BBC website, From the data generated by a screensaver/calculator thingy (like the SETI screensaver) Earth's average temp will go up anywhere from 2C to 11C in 100 years.

So media headlines scream "Temps will go up 11c in 100 yrs" and every one will go 'humm yeah the government must do something about it so long as it does'nt affect me' while driving to work in their SUV after booking their second holiday to Australia in 6 months and leaving the thermostat on the heating at 27C.

But its rather like the headlines "Global warming will cause sea levels to rise 7 metres"
and then fail to add on "in the next 1000 yrs" oh and "Sea levels have gone up .5 metres in the past 150 years"

I'm waiting for the Thermo-haline circulation to shut down.. mm no more blazing hot summers and year round snow yumm:cool:

Global warming is real, is being caused by us and will threaten us in our lifetimes.

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/vostok/graphics/tempplot5.gif

This graph goes from 450,000 years ago to present right to left. Notice the left side breaks the pattern of warming and cooling trends. The planet is warming now and it shouldn't be according to the past pattern.

On this graph, time runs from right to left and 0 represents the current Antarctic temperature. The maximum of 3.2 degrees Celsius was achieved about 130,000 years ago. A rule of thumb is that the temperature variation at high latitudes is about twice the global average, so the maximum corresponds to about 1.6 degrees of global warming. That is, if anything, at the low end of predictions for this century. It is not far off what even most skeptics think we're experiencing.

When the world reaches that point, it will presumably start to look something like it did 130,000 years ago. Back then, Greenland was truly green and sea level was six meters higher than it is today. The case for a recurrence has been articulated by Hansen (among others) in a variety of articles, including one in our March 2004 issue. Last month, a batch of Science papers reiterated earlier suggestions that we already are seeing the early stages of this melting; see my colleague Dave Biello's news story and the discussion at RealClimate. Such melting is not usually included in models, which predict only a gradual sea-level rise due to thermal expansion.
More scary:
One of the largest, fastest episodes of climate change in the geologic record is the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, or PETM, 55 million years ago. Within about 30,000 years, the globe warmed by 5 to 10 degrees Celsius, causing a huge disruption of plant and animal life. The warming coincided with a sharp change in the isotopic composition of carbon in the ocean and atmosphere, suggesting that it was driven by a sudden release of greenhouse gases. A leading candidate is methane stored in marine sediments, which may have been destabilized by an existing warming trend or by a more abrupt event such as a volcanic eruption. The total release of carbon was comparable to what humanity would achieve if it burned all the world's fossil fuels. The gaseous pulse flipped Earth's climate into a new state that lasted for 70,000 or so years before long-term negative feedback mechanisms reasserted themselves.
Even more scary:
Some scientists are even seeing parallels between present trends and the granddaddy of geologic catastrophes, the Permian-Triassic mass extinction 251 million years ago -- the worst extinction in Earth history, when 70 percent of land species and 90 percent of marine ones died out. Researchers debate the causes, but opinion now leans in favor of massive volcanic eruptions in Siberia, which vented CO2 and other gases. The resulting greenhouse warming unleashed other noxious consequences, including the release from the deep oceans not only of methane but also, as Lee Kump of Pennsylvania State University and his colleagues argued last year, of hydrogen sulfide. These gases amplified the greenhouse, pushing up temperatures by 10 to 30 degrees.

Such apocalypses are thankfully rare, so researchers think they involve multiple insults acting in concert. But paleontologist Peter Ward of the University of Washington worries that humanity might be able recreate some of the conditions if it pushed CO2 levels above 1000 ppm. He wrote in Discover magazine in August 1998:
The Permian extinction is now shaping up as an entirely new type of mass extinction. It had nothing to do with extraterrestrial causes, yet it happened far faster than typical extinctions triggered by internal changes to Earth's climate and chemistry. And if our hypothesis is correct, it raises some very disturbing implications about our current situation. We humans are producing carbon dioxide at a prodigious rate, and many climatologists believe that we are already raising temperatures and altering weather patterns. Are we walking down the same path that killed off so much life 250 million years ago--not from carbon dioxide liberated from the oceans but from carbon dioxide liberated by our cars and industry?
Conclusion:
Now, what should we make of all this? You don't have to go so far as to predict another Permian-Triassic extinction to realize that humanity is playing trapeze without a safety net. To me, the main lesson of worst-case scenarios is that uncertainty cuts both ways. Skeptics often invoke uncertainty as a reason to defer action because global warming may not be as bad as the headline predictions. But uncertainty equally well means that the outcome could be even worse. Our response should be neither complacency nor panic, but risk-management -- exactly what we do when we buy insurance or strap on seat belts. As David Wasdell of the Meridian Programme said at a workshop I went to last weekend, the scenarios are alarming but not alarmist.

Article: http://blog.sciam.com/index.php?title=could_global_warming_be_worse_than_you_t&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1

Aside from the O-Zone layer itself falling apart.


althought true the ozone layer and global warming are two completely different topics, neither one is related they are in no correlation or proportion, the two are unrelated i will repeat again.. unrelated

but yeah we do need to sort out the o zone layer

some scientist say that there should be an ice age at the moment...instead of rapid cooling we have rapid warming. Alarming? Of course not! Palm trees to Finland! Yay! 111!!!!
I'm not sure it's right now. Last ice age was about 20000 years ago(?). I think the cooling/warming thing happens over longer than that, so if we miss an ice age now (and if there's been a 0.7 degree increase over the last century, then we aren't missing one), we'll just hit a really big freeze in about 20 millennia time. More likely is that there'll be a mild ice age within the next 1000 years.

I heard today that if we continue our current rate of carbon emissions, we'll reach 430 ppm in the atmosphere by 2030, and most world ecosystems will go into positive feedback. I understand the first half of that, but what the hell is positive feedback, and how bad is it?

Oh hell I don't like the heat.

althought true the ozone layer and global warming are two completely different topics, neither one is related they are in no correlation or proportion, the two are unrelated i will repeat again.. unrelated

but yeah we do need to sort out the o zone layer
We did. It was one of the great achievments of teh environmental movement. The ozone layer is still decaying because the chemicals we pumped into it are still there, but it is decreasing and we no longer use those chemicals fro most processes and when we do our recovery methods are very good. Most climatologists do not believe the ozone layer is still in danger and should start recovering in a couple decades.

Oh hell I don't like the heat.

Lol typical scottish :p

I'm not sure it's right now. Last ice age was about 20000 years ago(?). I think the cooling/warming thing happens over longer than that, so if we miss an ice age now (and if there's been a 0.7 degree increase over the last century, then we aren't missing one), we'll just hit a really big freeze in about 20 millennia time. More likely is that there'll be a mild ice age within the next 1000 years.I posted a graph. Just scroll up.

I heard today that if we continue our current rate of carbon emissions, we'll reach 430 ppm in the atmosphere by 2030, and most world ecosystems will go into positive feedback. I understand the first half of that, but what the hell is positive feedback, and how bad is it?
If you pump enough carbon into teh air it will heat the Earth. If the Earth heats it can melt the permafrost. If the permafrost melts it can release allof its methane. If it releases it's methane the Earth will warm more, more permafrost will melt, more methan will be released warming the Earth more... Look at my post with the graph and it talks about two times that that happened.

People should stop worrying. There is no way in Hell humans are going to wipe out all life on the planet. We'll have exterminated ourselves long before the last cockroach keels over and dies.

People should stop worrying. There is no way in Hell humans are going to wipe out all life on the planet. We'll have exterminated ourselves long before the last cockroach keels over and dies.
Seriously. If you're worried about cockroaches you don't need to. :mad: People worry way too much about cockroaches. Just the other day I read this really alrming headline on CNN:

Global Warming Threatens To Wipe Out Cockroaches

I posted a graph. Just scroll up.


If you pump enough carbon into teh air it will heat the Earth. If the Earth heats it can melt the permafrost. If the permafrost melts it can release allof its methane. If it releases it's methane the Earth will warm more, more permafrost will melt, more methan will be released warming the Earth more... Look at my post with the graph and it talks about two times that that happened.
Heh, ok, thanks. Normally I don't bother reading long posts unless I'm actively taking part in the debate.

That graph and the first quoted bit of the article is a little misleading, as it doesn't say in the quote that the graph shows temperature variation from the current temperature of -55.0 degrees Celsius. It's just a little thing, but it could cause confusion.

People should stop worrying. There is no way in Hell humans are going to wipe out all life on the planet. We'll have exterminated ourselves long before the last cockroach keels over and dies.

Not ALL life will be wiped out. Certain types of fish, amphibians, reptiles... maybe some mammals... they'll survive by adaptation.

Bugs will always be around.

It's a little known fact that while Earth goes through natural cycles of cooling and warming it has been warmer than usual for the last few thousand years. About 11000 years ago Earth was at a point where it was closest to the sun on summer solstice in the Northern hemisphere - where most of the land mass is that absorbs more of the solar radiation.

Since then it should have become colder again and a new ice age should have begun, but humans kept the concentrations of CO2 and NH4 (methane) near constant (they usually fell) when they developed agriculture. So humanity already had a great effect on the climate before industrialisation, which raised greenhouse gas concentrations even higher.

Nature will survive all of this, but it may change when the average temperatures rise to a level where it hasn't been the last tens of thousands of years, in which there was a change between ice ages and short warm phases in between.

A lot of us will probably be around when the first resources become scarce, and we can only hope that mankind will be wise enough not to start a world war over those resources...

Sevenglasses']It's a little known fact that while Earth goes through natural cycles of cooling and warming it has been warmer than usual for the last few thousand years. About 11000 years ago Earth was at a point where it was closest to the sun on summer solstice in the Northern hemisphere - where most of the land mass is that absorbs more of the solar radiation.

Since then it should have become colder again and a new ice age should have begun, but humans kept the concentrations of CO2 and NH4 (methane) near constant (they usually fell) when they developed agriculture. So humanity already had a great effect on the climate before industrialisation, which raised greenhouse gas concentrations even higher.

Nature will survive all of this, but it may change when the average temperatures rise to a level where it hasn't been the last tens of thousands of years, in which there was a change between ice ages and short warm phases in between.

A lot of us will probably be around when the first resources become scarce, and we can only hope that mankind will be wise enough not to start a world war over those resources...

Psh, nature will always be fine. It'll recycle itself and find a way around whatever eventually.

Global warming, earthquakes, hurricanes, and other natural disasters are a direct consequence of the decline in numbers of pirates since the 19th Century.

As a devote follower of Flying Spaghetti Monsterism (yes I am a Pastafarian), Pirates are a major component of Flying Spaghetti Monsterism dogma. Pirates are "absolute divine beings" in Pastafarianism.

For more on this religion go to www.venganza.org

Global Warming Threatens To Wipe Out Cockroaches
Hurrah for global warming!

I hate cockroaches. *Shudders at thought of them.*

Becasue by the time the real catastrophic effects of global warming begin to take place, we will all be dead. It would take hundreds of thousands of years for a major climate change to take place. Screw the grandkids, let them worry about it...:sniper:
Yeah. You know nothing about the subject, do you? It could happen in 20 years at the rate we're going.

Meh, global warming exists, but human greenhouse gas emissions play a very small role in it. The Earth always goes through these cycles depending on the distance from the Sun, which changes slightly every year. We've had ice ages before there were cars and factories, you know.

They have satellites that measure the radiation the Earth gets from the Sun. According to the data, the Sun should not be creating this change in temperature. Next!

Yes it is a serious problem, but the ice caps have actually only existed for a very short time, i cant remember exactly but i think it was only a couple of thousand years maybe less maybe more.

Yes, but there weren't millions (billions?) of humans living near the coastline the last time there were no icecaps. Plus heat makes water expand, so warmer temperatures cause the ocean to rise even if there was no melting of landlocked icecaps.

Okay, so lemme get this straight. NOT ONLY do we have Peak Oil and all that jazz slowing down and possibly destroying most of society, we then have global climate change gobsmacking what remains of humanity? Sheesh. I'm starting to wonder if I shouldn't have been born fifty years ago...

Yes it is a serious problem, but the ice caps have actually only existed for a very short time, i cant remember exactly but i think it was only a couple of thousand years maybe less maybe more.
Not at all. The last real Ice Age ended about 20,000 years ago. Since then the ice caps have been at similar levels to the way they are today. Before that, they stretched down to Britain.