NationStates Jolt Archive


US Presidential Election-Worst Case Scenario

Sel Appa
10-04-2006, 02:46
It is 4 November 2008 and after a long day of voting across the country the results are in. The electoral tally is 271-268...making the Republican candidate the winner(this isn't the worst part ;)). Despite this clear victory, hundreds of thousands of demonstrators take to the streets and protest the results of the election, saying it was unfair. There was no voter fraud, disenfranchisement or any of that. So why are these people in the streets?

PErhaps it is because only 29% of the country voted for the Republican candidate. 71% voted for the Democrat. Despite this landslide victory in the popular vote, the Democrat is not president. Why is this? This is all thanks to the Electoral College. Welcome to a new Electoral College Debate! Discuss.

PS: I did take a lot of exaggerations like only 51% of the top states(see below) voted Republican and everyone else voted Democrat...all the non-top states voted 100% Democrat.



How I calculated this:
First I got a list of the the electoral votes for each state. Then, I took the highest states and made them Republican and the others Democrats on a map-calculator thing. Only the states needed to get just over 270. Afterwards, I figured out the "eligible voter population" of each of the Republican states using census data. The data is actually somewhat incorrect because I counted all censused people over 18, rather than eligible voters. Then, I calculated 51% of each Republican state and added them together. Finally, I divided this number by the total "eligible voter population" of the US and got a tad over 29%.

Sources:
Wikipedia (http://www.wikipedia.org), US Census (http://www.census.gov), and Electoral College Calculator (http://www.opinionjournal.com/ecc/calculator.htm).

God Bless the USA...;) (Hypothetically accepting God's existence)*

*Not really
Free Farmers
10-04-2006, 02:50
Ha, that's your worst case scenerio? Have you no imagination? :p

Seriously though, it is obvious that things like that can happen. I didn't know it was such a great amount, but it was clear that something outragous like that has the ability to occur.
The Black Forrest
10-04-2006, 02:50
Jeb Bush
DrunkenDove
10-04-2006, 02:52
Jeb Bush

Jeb Bush vs. Hilliary Clinton.

*shudders*
Sel Appa
10-04-2006, 02:52
Ha, that's your worst case scenerio? Have you no imagination? :p

Seriously though, it is obvious that things like that can happen. I didn't know it was such a great amount, but it was clear that something outragous like that has the ability to occur.
I needed an attention-getting title without giving away what will happen.
AllCoolNamesAreTaken
10-04-2006, 02:54
Jeb Bush vs. Hilliary Clinton.

*shudders*

If that happens, call me a Canadian immigrant.
Free Farmers
10-04-2006, 02:56
I needed an attention-getting title without giving away what will happen.
How about:
"Electoral College: Proof that it is fucked up"
;)
Sel Appa
10-04-2006, 03:00
How about:
"Electoral College: Proof that it is fucked up"
;)
That would have been good, but it gives away the whole ending basically.
Tweedlesburg
10-04-2006, 03:03
Real worst-case scenario: Its 2008. There is no election. Bush has seized power.
Ladamesansmerci
10-04-2006, 03:07
If that happens, call me a Canadian immigrant.
YAY! You Americans all need to move to Canada! We've got beer that doesn't taste like piss and water. :p
Free Farmers
10-04-2006, 03:08
YAY! You Americans all need to move to Canada! We've got beer that doesn't taste like piss and water. :p
Trust me, you DO NOT want more Americans in your country. Look at what they've done here!
Ladamesansmerci
10-04-2006, 03:11
Trust me, you DO NOT want more Americans in your country. Look at what they've done here!

No, NS Liberal Americans can move here. I just don't want the country clogged with American hicks.
Dinaverg
10-04-2006, 03:13
No, NS Liberal Americans can move here. I just don't want the country clogged with American hicks.

Err, that might'nt be a good statment for you to make...I'm an NS Liberal American. Want me any closer to you? ;)
Free Farmers
10-04-2006, 03:18
That's true. We are the better ones. But some of us have turned to the dark side. *cough* Hillary Clinton *cough* Joe Liberman *cough* [insert other democrats who have the audacity to want to ban video games] *cough* You'll need a good filter even with the dems these days. :(
Rotovia-
10-04-2006, 03:30
When Australians don't vote, we get a $2,000 fine. When Americans don't vote, you get Bush.
Dobbsworld
10-04-2006, 03:50
If it's all the same to you, I'd prefer it if you Americans not emigrate en masse to Canada in search of greener pastures. Keep your end up; fight your political wars to their logical conclusion. But keep it contained, keep it an internal process.

Besides, American small-l 'liberals' are more innately conservative than Canadian small-c 'conservatives', anyway.

Have fun kicking it over, Yanks! Just don't fuck it up.
The Black Forrest
10-04-2006, 04:22
When Australians don't vote, we get a $2,000 fine. When Americans don't vote, you get Bush.
You get what if you don't vote???? Damn. I had to get married for that!
The Black Forrest
10-04-2006, 04:23
If it's all the same to you, I'd prefer it if you Americans not emigrate en masse to Canada in search of greener pastures. Keep your end up; fight your political wars to their logical conclusion. But keep it contained, keep it an internal process.

Besides, American small-l 'liberals' are more innately conservative than Canadian small-c 'conservatives', anyway.

Have fun kicking it over, Yanks! Just don't fuck it up.

Just for that I will make sure I buy the property right next to you!
Sel Appa
10-04-2006, 04:58
When Australians don't vote, we get a $2,000 fine. When Americans don't vote, you get Bush.
Damn...in Belgium it's $85 I think.
AllCoolNamesAreTaken
10-04-2006, 05:06
When Australians don't vote, we get a $2,000 fine. When Americans don't vote, you get Bush.

Trust me, if every American voted, it would be just as bad. We would just have 30 million votes for Homer Simpson. I like the NS issue on this one- "compulsary voting? You can't force people to be free! Mandatory voting is like having the death penalty for attempted suicide!" In the U.S.'s two party/"first past the post" system, requiring everyone to vote would just be a waste of paper. There would just be a lot of votes for regional/ single issue candidates with no chance of winning.
Eutrusca
10-04-2006, 05:09
Sel Appa ... welcome to the Republic. :)
Lunatic Goofballs
10-04-2006, 05:43
Worst-case Scenario: President Dan Quayle. Vice-President Dick Cheney.

*curls into fetal position and whimpers*
AllCoolNamesAreTaken
10-04-2006, 05:45
Worst-case Scenario: President Dan Quayle. Vice-President Dick Cheney.
*curls into fetal position and whimpers*

Worser-case Scenario: President LG. Vice-President Fiddlebottoms.

*runs through street naked screaming*
Sel Appa
10-04-2006, 05:52
Sel Appa ... welcome to the Republic. :)
Ummm...ok.

Trust me, if every American voted, it would be just as bad. We would just have 30 million votes for Homer Simpson....In the U.S.'s two party/"first past the post" system, requiring everyone to vote would just be a waste of paper. There would just be a lot of votes for regional/ single issue candidates with no chance of winning.
Not true...Do Austrailians vote overwhelmingly for Steve Irwin? GORGEOUS!
Good Lifes
10-04-2006, 05:53
How about one that could really happen----Condi vs. Hillary :(
Lacadaemon
10-04-2006, 05:57
I heard a rumor that if the 2006 elections don't go well, all future elections will be cancelled until "the war on terror" (or was it drugs? but I digress) will be cancelled until we can exercise our vote responsibly.
The Alma Mater
10-04-2006, 06:19
Hugo Chavez (after getting special dispensation for "services to the country") vs Fred Phelps.
Myotisinia
10-04-2006, 06:40
Al Sharpton for president, with Cynthia McKinney as his running mate. *shudders*
Lunatic Goofballs
10-04-2006, 06:43
Worser-case Scenario: President LG. Vice-President Fiddlebottoms.

*runs through street naked screaming*

That's pretty much the theme for my term in office. :)
Posi
10-04-2006, 06:45
Worser-case Scenario: President LG. Vice-President Fiddlebottoms.

*runs through street naked screaming*
Call me an American Immigrant.

Mandatory voting is like having the death penalty for attempted suicide!"
There are actually places with laws like that.
H N Fiddlebottoms VIII
10-04-2006, 06:55
That's pretty much the theme for my term in office. :)
Indeed? Then I shall have to insist that we hire Katherine Isabelle as special consule on Canada.
Why? Well she has . . . er, that is to say she is . . . um, she's Canadian. Yeah, that's the only reasoning behind my insistence. No ulterior motives at all.
Dude111
10-04-2006, 06:58
It is 4 November 2008 and after a long day of voting across the country the results are in. The electoral tally is 271-268...making the Republican candidate the winner(this isn't the worst part ;)). Despite this clear victory, hundreds of thousands of demonstrators take to the streets and protest the results of the election, saying it was unfair. There was no voter fraud, disenfranchisement or any of that. So why are these people in the streets?

PErhaps it is because only 29% of the country voted for the Republican candidate. 71% voted for the Democrat. Despite this landslide victory in the popular vote, the Democrat is not president. Why is this? This is all thanks to the Electoral College. Welcome to a new Electoral College Debate! Discuss.

PS: I did take a lot of exaggerations like only 51% of the top states(see below) voted Republican and everyone else voted Democrat...all the non-top states voted 100% Democrat.



How I calculated this:
First I got a list of the the electoral votes for each state. Then, I took the highest states and made them Republican and the others Democrats on a map-calculator thing. Only the states needed to get just over 270. Afterwards, I figured out the "eligible voter population" of each of the Republican states using census data. The data is actually somewhat incorrect because I counted all censused people over 18, rather than eligible voters. Then, I calculated 51% of each Republican state and added them together. Finally, I divided this number by the total "eligible voter population" of the US and got a tad over 29%.

Sources:
Wikipedia (http://www.wikipedia.org), US Census (http://www.census.gov), and Electoral College Calculator (http://www.opinionjournal.com/ecc/calculator.htm).
God Bless the USA...;) (Hypothetically accepting God's existence)*

*Not really
um...does anyone here like the smell of gas?
Posi
10-04-2006, 07:02
Indeed? Then I shall have to insist that we hire Katherine Isabelle as special consule on Canada.
Why? Well she has . . . er, that is to say she is . . . um, she's Canadian. Yeah, that's the only reasoning behind my insistence. No ulterior motives at all.
You know she is not really a werewolf, it was just a character she was playing.
H N Fiddlebottoms VIII
10-04-2006, 07:13
You know she is not really a werewolf, it was just a character she was playing.
Nawh, really? Next thing you're going to claim is that she didn't actually die at the end, either. Sheer lunacy.
Posi
10-04-2006, 07:16
Nawh, really? Next thing you're going to claim is that she didn't actually die at the end, either. Sheer lunacy.
Wrong you are Ken. I'll claim that I got bored, begged my sister to change the channel then blasted System of a Down on my iPod.
The UN abassadorship
10-04-2006, 07:20
Real worst-case scenario: Its 2008. There is no election. Bush has seized power.
um, I think you mean BEST-case scenario. Four more years! four more years!
H N Fiddlebottoms VIII
10-04-2006, 07:27
Wrong you are Ken. I'll claim that I got bored, begged my sister to change the channel then blasted System of a Down on my iPod.
That movie played a very important role in my early teenage development, during that awkward phase where I was too proud to admit to oggling but wasn't not about to stop doing it, either (ah, the justifications of youth), and I would thank you to treat my nostalgia with more respect.
Or at least wait until I'm sober-er before you start pissing on my parade.
H N Fiddlebottoms VIII
10-04-2006, 07:29
um...does anyone here like the smell of gas?
Planning to burn down the Reichstag, eh, Van der Lubbe?
Posi
10-04-2006, 07:37
That movie played a very important role in my early teenage development, during that awkward phase where I was too proud to admit to oggling but wasn't not about to stop doing it, either (ah, the justifications of youth), and I would thank you to treat my nostalgia with more respect.
Or at least wait until I'm sober-er before you start pissing on my parade.
I didn't see it until about a month ago. Excuding the part were the two girls had the urge to pass on werewolfism (which, by the way, was an STD!), the movies kinda sucked. Besides, porn should have fixed your oggling urges. Don't really know why you wouldn't put it to use; those whores need those jobs.

Drinking on a schoolnight? Well, I can't make a sceen without looking like a hypocrip.
H N Fiddlebottoms VIII
10-04-2006, 07:54
I didn't see it until about a month ago. Excuding the part were the two girls had the urge to pass on werewolfism (which, by the way, was an STD!), the movies kinda sucked. Besides, porn should have fixed your oggling urges. Don't really know why you wouldn't put it to use; those whores need those jobs.
I was on the last months of my "innocence"/Middle School phase, I wasn't about to admit to liking porn. So, I just happened to like a certain few horror movies that just happened to contain a few certain actresses.
But they were so totally not porn, and I wasn't watching them that way at all.
No, really. See, there's this wolf that shows up in the last 25 minutes, and that makes it legit.
Drinking on a schoolnight? Well, I can't make a sceen without looking like a hypocrip.
Two things:
1: I'm hardly drunk at all. Just a little bit.
2: Its 2.54 AM: School morning.
Posi
10-04-2006, 08:04
I was on the last months of my "innocence"/Middle School phase, I wasn't about to admit to liking porn. So, I just happened to like a certain few horror movies that just happened to contain a few certain actresses.
But they were so totally not porn, and I wasn't watching them that way at all.
No, really. See, there's this wolf that shows up in the last 25 minutes, and that makes it legit.
Wuss. As soon as I got a computer in Grade 7, I was illegally objectifying women.

Two things:
1: I'm hardly drunk at all. Just a little bit.
2: Its 2.54 AM: School morning.
1.That's what they all say.
2.That mmakes it all the cooler.:).
H N Fiddlebottoms VIII
10-04-2006, 08:20
Wuss. As soon as I got a computer in Grade 7, I was illegally objectifying women.
Computer porn (like getting drunk on a forum at 3 AM) was for geeks and losers. Watching B-Grade horror was what the cool kids did.
My past's very funny,
My future's very grim.
They meet in the land of milk and honey:
Hale present, an age of vigor and vim.

Ok, so that probably won't sound nearly as clever tommorow, but I'm quite proud of having written it right now. And that is what counts.
Evil Cantadia
10-04-2006, 09:01
How about one that could really happen----Condi vs. Hillary :(

I never thought I would be so repulsed by a ballot that would guarantee the first woman President.
Rotovia-
10-04-2006, 10:23
Trust me, if every American voted, it would be just as bad. We would just have 30 million votes for Homer Simpson. I like the NS issue on this one- "compulsary voting? You can't force people to be free! Mandatory voting is like having the death penalty for attempted suicide!" In the U.S.'s two party/"first past the post" system, requiring everyone to vote would just be a waste of paper. There would just be a lot of votes for regional/ single issue candidates with no chance of winning.
Hey, I'm no compulsory-voting supporter. I know people who think the "That Republican Guy" is our Prime Minister, or who vote for "whatever's on the top of the ballot... less work that way".

But, the problem is so many people with actual opinions don't seem to vote in America.
Skinny87
10-04-2006, 10:43
Is anyone going to discuss your electoral system? I've been studying it for my history module, US History Since 1880, and it doesn't seem that fair. Why do y'all even have it? Why not just do away with it and just have voting?
Lydania
10-04-2006, 11:05
There's proportional representation, and first-past-the-post. Those two are the most notable voting schemes that I've seen.

FPTP means that you don't need the popular vote, you just have to have one more vote than the next guy.

Proportional representation means that every vote matters. If the entirety of the US votes 75% Democrat, 75% of the people elected will be Democrat.

Would work in the US with their dual-party system, but not here, in Canada. We have close to seven parties that I can think of, although the only ones of note are the Greens, the NDP, the Liberals and the Conservatives.

The Communists and the Christian Heritage Party are, thankfully, extremely small.
Good Lifes
10-04-2006, 16:08
Is anyone going to discuss your electoral system? I've been studying it for my history module, US History Since 1880, and it doesn't seem that fair. Why do y'all even have it? Why not just do away with it and just have voting?
The writers of the Constitution had no faith in true democracy. They did everything they could think of to protect the minority from the majority while giving the majority opinion power. They also were trying to combine independent nations, each wanted their power protected. What the "Electoral College" does is protect the small states from the large by loading the vote in favor of the small states. The example used in this thread would have been even greater if the calculation had been done by giving the winner the small states and the loser the big states. Wyoming gets a vote for every 169,765 people, California gets a vote for every 656,948 people. Originally, the "electoral college" was also insulated from the people. Those that were in the college can even today vote against those that elected them if they feel the voters made a mistake. This has been mitigated somewhat by the development of political parties, something the founders didn't anticipate.

There are a few states, (Nebraska I know) that divide their votes according to the percent of the popular vote.
Demented Hamsters
10-04-2006, 16:32
Man, I thought this was going to be a "Who's the worst person in power" scenario.
Mine would have been Cheney is pres. Drunk on power and psychotic from too many baboon heart/liver/lung/kidney transplants, first thing he does when sworned in is shoot a 78yr old in the face.
That would have been bad enough, but thing is: He's not got a gun.
With horror, the American public realises they've elected a half-man, half-ape for real this time.
4 years of Cheney doing that creepy grimace of his, followed by howling, hollering and throwing faeces at visiting dignitaries.
Astura
10-04-2006, 19:20
Don't forget the "black beauties." Can't have a satanic president who isn't hopped up on Nitroglycerine to forestall turning completely into an ape from one too many transplants:p
Waterkeep
10-04-2006, 20:38
What the "Electoral College" does is protect the small states from the large by loading the vote in favor of the small states.
You have a much less cynical view of the founding fathers than I do.
I see it as protecting the large land-owners from the renters.
Waterkeep
10-04-2006, 20:39
Would work in the US with their dual-party system, but not here, in Canada. We have close to seven parties that I can think of, although the only ones of note are the Greens, the NDP, the Liberals and the Conservatives.

The US has many more than two parties as well.

As for proportional representation, it'll work anywhere. It just means that those elected have to work cooperatively with people with other points of view, rather than being able to force their own down everybody's throat.

I think of that as a good thing.
Sel Appa
10-04-2006, 20:52
The US has many more than two parties as well.

As for proportional representation, it'll work anywhere. It just means that those elected have to work cooperatively with people with other points of view, rather than being able to force their own down everybody's throat.

I think of that as a good thing.
We need proportional representation so some third parties can get into Congress. Maybe then this country will improve a bit.

Is anyone going to discuss your electoral system? I've been studying it for my history module, US History Since 1880, and it doesn't seem that fair. Why do y'all even have it? Why not just do away with it and just have voting?
It's been tried maybe 500 times, but for some reason, they just won't get rid of it. We need a dictator to completely revamp the US.
Dinaverg
10-04-2006, 23:41
Indeed? Then I shall have to insist that we hire Katherine Isabelle as special consule on Canada.
Why? Well she has . . . er, that is to say she is . . . um, she's Canadian. Yeah, that's the only reasoning behind my insistence. No ulterior motives at all.

Canadian is always good reasoning. :)
Good Lifes
11-04-2006, 01:18
You have a much less cynical view of the founding fathers than I do.
I see it as protecting the large land-owners from the renters.
If I remember right, only land owners could vote anyway.
Free Farmers
11-04-2006, 02:03
It's been tried maybe 500 times, but for some reason, they just won't get rid of it. We need a dictator to completely revamp the US.
Excuse me, WHAT?!
The United States needs a dictator, eh?
I see a future for you in the Republican party, assuming you also like forcing Christianity down everyone's throat too.
The Jovian Moons
11-04-2006, 02:29
The worst case is Hillary Clintion vs Bill Frist. I would leave to Canada, UK or Germany. (or anywhere else) I can't stand either one of them.

edit
Ooooohhhh I'm supposed to read the first post then make my own post to see if I'm talking about teh same thing.... teh should replace the in teh dictionary
Maineiacs
11-04-2006, 03:07
Scenario for tied electoral vote in 2008 (not saying this is likely, just a "what if"):

Harry Reid (D-NV) for the Dems
Insert random GOP candidate here (some Southerner, perhaps)

All states stay as in 2004 except-- Reid carries his home state plus NM (.1% for Gore in 2000, .8% for Bush in 2004) and Iowa (.3% for Gore, .7% for Bush)

Final tally: 269-269


http://www.opinionjournal.com/ecc/calculator.htm
Katurkalurkmurkastan
11-04-2006, 03:19
2008, a third republican victory.
2012, Barak Obama, first black president?
Maineiacs
11-04-2006, 03:28
2008, a third republican victory.
2012, Barak Obama, first black president?


If you're right about 2008, the only thing I'll be worrying about in 2012 is who to vote for Prime Minister.
Ethane Prime
11-04-2006, 03:55
The people of a country should be allowed to represent themselves. Electoral Colleges are such bull****.
Sel Appa
11-04-2006, 04:57
Scenario for tied electoral vote in 2008 (not saying this is likely, just a "what if"):

Harry Reid (D-NV) for the Dems
Insert random GOP candidate here (some Southerner, perhaps)

All states stay as in 2004 except-- Reid carries his home state plus NM (.1% for Gore in 2000, .8% for Bush in 2004) and Iowa (.3% for Gore, .7% for Bush)

Final tally: 269-269


http://www.opinionjournal.com/ecc/calculator.htm
I could see that happening...It'd be a low chance, but possible.

Excuse me, WHAT?!
The United States needs a dictator, eh?
I see a future for you in the Republican party, assuming you also like forcing Christianity down everyone's throat too.
I dislike Republicans...and Christianity. If I were dictator, you'd see things turn around for the best...with a Communist twist though, but I would issue a fair Constitution I am subject to. Democracy isn't the best system, but it sees the least amount of problems if corrupted.