NationStates Jolt Archive


Hurricanes, Cyclones and the burning question.

PsychoticDan
23-03-2006, 20:10
Is global warming responsible for the increase in intensity and frequency of cyclonic storms? New statistical research says yes. Please read before you start talking about "natural cycles."

From Scientific American:
Since the 1970s, ocean surface temperatures around the globe have been on the rise--from one half to one degree Fahrenheit, depending on the region. Last summer, two studies linked this temperature rise to stronger and more frequent hurricanes. Skeptics called other factors into account, such as natural variability, but a new statistical analysis shows that only this sea surface temperature increase explains this trend.
Climate researcher Judith Curry and her colleagues at the Georgia Institute of Technology looked at the hurricane records for storms between 1970 and 2004 in all of the world's ocean basins, yielding a total sample of 210 seasons over the six regions. They subjected the records to a mathematical test derived from information theory--so-called mutual information, which measures the amount of information two variables share, so that if they do not overlap at all this measure would be zero.

The researchers then looked at sea surface temperature, specific humidity, wind shear and wind variation over longitude to see what, if anything, these variables shared with the increasing number of strong storms the world over. According to the analysis appearing online today in Science, this trend only depends on sea surface temperature. "If you examine the intensification of a single storm, or even the statistics on intensification for a particular season, factors like wind shear can play an important role," Curry says. "However, there is no global trend in wind shear or the other factors over the 35-year period."

The link between rising ocean temperatures and overall climate change remains murky because of the overlap between natural cycles and any global warming. "But if you buy the argument that global warming is causing the increase in sea surface temperatures--and everybody seems to be buying this--then it's a pretty small leap to say global warming is causing this increase ," Curry says. Her team will now focus on clarifying the mechanisms at work in the North Atlantic by separating out the 75-year natural cycle and climate change. "The last peak was in 1950, the next is in 2025," she adds. "We're only halfway up [the cycle] and we're already 50 percent worse [in terms of storms]. To me, that's a compelling issue that needs to be confronted." --[i]David Biello
Whereyouthinkyougoing
23-03-2006, 20:14
Honestly, I wasn't even aware that this was up for discussion.
Fass
23-03-2006, 20:17
Honestly, I wasn't even aware that this was up for discussion.

Yeah, I said the same thing about abortion and torture.
Whereyouthinkyougoing
23-03-2006, 20:19
Yeah, I said the same thing about abortion and torture.
Now, that's just naïve. :p
Fass
23-03-2006, 20:21
Now, that's just naïve. :p

Silly me, up in my 21st century ivory tower.
PsychoticDan
23-03-2006, 20:26
I hear people all the time saying that the increase in hurricane power and frequency is due to the natural wax and wane cycle of hurricanes. They use this existing cycle to explain away the obvious increase we've seen and refute its connection to global warming. This statistical analysis took that cycle into account and cancelled it out.
Whereyouthinkyougoing
23-03-2006, 20:35
I hear people all the time saying that the increase in hurricane power and frequency is due to the natural wax and wane cycle of hurricanes. They use this existing cycle to explain away the obvious increase we've seen and refute its connection to global warming. This statistical analysis took that cycle into account and cancelled it out.
Okay, now I see where you're coming from. Though I have to say that I don't think I've ever heard anyone say something about a "natural wax and wane cycle" of hurricanes. Once more I'm glad I don't live in the US. ;)

I just get incredibly frustrated with people on the topic of global warming. And while (thanks mainly to NS, as well as Mr. Bush) I've gotten used to the fact that some people refuse to see it as anything but a completely natural phenomenon, I don't even want to start to consider that now they are saying that the increasing number and severity of weather events like hurricanes doesn't have anything to do with global warming (seeing how the physics involved are on the table, and how you don't even have to admit that global warming is primarily caused by man made pollution to see that).

Seriously, people.
Undelia
23-03-2006, 20:45
If hurricanes are increasing in number and intensity, which I’m sure they are, there’s nothing we can do about it at this point. It’s too late, might as well enjoy life to the fullest before all the oil runs out.
PsychoticDan
23-03-2006, 20:45
Okay, now I see where you're coming from. Though I have to say that I don't think I've ever heard anyone say something about a "natural wax and wane cycle" of hurricanes. Once more I'm glad I don't live in the US. ;)

I just get incredibly frustrated with people on the topic of global warming. And while (thanks mainly to NS, as well as Mr. Bush) I've gotten used to the fact that some people refuse to see it as anything but a completely natural phenomenon, I don't even want to start to consider that now they are saying that the increasing number and severity of weather events like hurricanes doesn't have anything to do with global warming (seeing how the physics involved are on the table, and how you don't even have to admit that global warming is primarily caused by man made pollution to see that).

Seriously, people.
The cycle is real: http://zfacts.com/metaPage/lib/NOAA-2005-11-Hurricane-Story-184.pdf
Kerubia
23-03-2006, 20:50
Global Warming. Pah. I don't know what to believe in regards to that. I've had one geology professor tell me it's fact, and another that it's a myth, all in the same freakin' university, and on the same day. And both had a peer group they said that would back them up.

I should've checked those groups out, now that I look back.
Whereyouthinkyougoing
23-03-2006, 20:51
The cycle is real: http://zfacts.com/metaPage/lib/NOAA-2005-11-Hurricane-Story-184.pdf
Oops. Talk about knee jerk reaction. Sorry.
Curious Inquiry
23-03-2006, 20:53
edit: sorry, thought this thread was about Sweet 16 :eek:
Novoga
23-03-2006, 22:33
Of course it could all just be a natural cycle.
PsychoticDan
23-03-2006, 22:34
Of course it could all just be a natural cycle.
It'll take you less than three minutes to read it.
Novoga
23-03-2006, 22:36
It'll take you less than three minutes to read it.

It is the same old argument. They, for some strange reason, seem to think that studying records from 30-50 years ago can prove Global Warming. 30-50 years in the 4 Billion year history of Earth is nothing.
Lunatic Goofballs
23-03-2006, 22:40
A little over 100 years of reliable weather data, and they've discovered a 75-year cycle. Yeah. That's just ducky. :)
PsychoticDan
23-03-2006, 22:43
It is the same old argument. They, for some strange reason, seem to think that studying records from 30-50 years ago can prove Global Warming. 30-50 years in the 4 Billion year history of Earth is nothing.
As modern human being we only need to be concerned with that because what we are worried about is changing the climate that sustains us now. It is the study of climet over the last few million years that has led us to believe that increases in CO2 result in higher temperatures. What we are worried about is that humans have been around during a relatively stable climate state. Now, we are increasing the level of CO2 and we have seen what happens when taht happens and we don't want it to happen to us. We have studied the climate over the time periods you talk about. 4 and 1/2 billion years ago the climate was such that there was no oxygen, no oceans and no life. What does that have to do with the way the planet is now?