NationStates Jolt Archive

http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A440265&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf

Pretty frank report.

No link pal

No link pal
Its there and it works for me. :confused:

Link works fine for me.

Cheers. I'll submit it to ASPO for reference. :)

And people say peak oil is a myth perpetuated by dirty hippies...

And people say peak oil is a myth perpetuated by dirty hippies...
Well, the Pentagon published a report a year ago, saying climate change had serious international peace and security implications. The Bush administration winced at that one. How dare civil servants reach conclusions which challenge the prevailing ideology?

Cheers. I'll submit it to ASPO for reference. :)
The have it. It's posted on their website.

From the report:
The days of inexpensive, convenient, abundant energy sources are quickly drawing to a close. Domestic natural gas production peaked in 1973. The proved domestic reserve lifetime for natural gas at current consumption rates is about 8.4 yrs. The proved world reserve lifetime for natural gas is about 40 years, but will follow a traditional rise to a peak and then a rapid decline. Domestic oil production peaked in 1970 and continues to decline. Proved domestic reserve lifetime for oil is about 3.4 yrs. World oil production is at or near its peak and current world demand exceeds the supply. Saudi Arabia is considered the bellwether nation for oil production and has not increased production since April 2003. After peak production, supply no longer meets demand, prices and competition increase. World proved reserve lifetime for oil is about 41 years, most of this at a declining availability. Our current throw-away nuclear cycle will consume the world reserve of low-cost uranium in about 20 years. Unless we dramatically change our consumption practices, the Earth’s finite resources of petroleum and natural gas will become depleted in this century. Coal supplies may last into the next century depending on technology and consumption trends as it starts to replace oil and natural gas.

The have it. It's posted on their website.
Ah well. Saves me writing an e-mail.:p

From the report:
Quote:
The days of inexpensive, convenient, abundant energy sources are quickly drawing to a close. Domestic natural gas production peaked in 1973. The proved domestic reserve lifetime for natural gas at current consumption rates is about 8.4 yrs. The proved world reserve lifetime for natural gas is about 40 years, but will follow a traditional rise to a peak and then a rapid decline. Domestic oil production peaked in 1970 and continues to decline. Proved domestic reserve lifetime for oil is about 3.4 yrs. World oil production is at or near its peak and current world demand exceeds the supply. Saudi Arabia is considered the bellwether nation for oil production and has not increased production since April 2003. After peak production, supply no longer meets demand, prices and competition increase. World proved reserve lifetime for oil is about 41 years, most of this at a declining availability. Our current throw-away nuclear cycle will consume the world reserve of low-cost uranium in about 20 years. Unless we dramatically change our consumption practices, the Earth’s finite resources of petroleum and natural gas will become depleted in this century. Coal supplies may last into the next century depending on technology and consumption trends as it starts to replace oil and natural gas.[quote]



So were going back to horse and carts......yay.

So, invest in coal?

There is no such thing as peak oil, pay no attention to the man behind the curtains.

It's good news that this issue is increasingly entering people's awareness. Sadly, people with a clue are in the minority.

So, invest in coal?
Don't invest. There's no point having money in the energy sector when the banking system implodes.

Don't invest. There's no point having money in the energy sector when the banking system implodes.

So, stockpile coal?

It's good news that this issue is increasingly entering people's awareness. Sadly, people with a clue are in the minority.
I don't know. Apart from the National Geographic over a year ago there hasn't been much talk about it in the mainstream media, and it's not like this was discovered just then.

So, stockpile coal?
Learn some farming and animal husbandry. And making coal from wood.

So, invest in coal?
In the short to medium term, energy services stocks. I've done great with them. Floserve (fls) is up 73% in a years. Also, Ethanol. I don't think its a viable technology, but thats of secondary importance to market psychology. Whats important in the near and mid term is that people think it will work so the stock will go up. So you buy it and try to sell it right before it becomes clear that we cannot maintain our agricultural yields, which is, of course, a primary requisite to Ethanol production, without oil. PEIX is a good pure-play ethanol stock. Other than tha, yes. Coal and coal services companies. Peabody is the Mobil of coal.

Don't invest. There's no point having money in the energy sector when the banking system implodes.
But I look at it like this. If we are able to maintain our society through a bunch of "wailing and gnashing of teeth" as Micheal Rupert says it, then these investments can save your ass. If we are not then the money you invested woudl have been worthless anyway. The most important thing you can do, however, is to GET OUT OF DEBT!!!!! As inflation and runaway interest rates take hold you'll be very happy if you have no or little debt.

I don't know. Apart from the National Geographic over a year ago there hasn't been much talk about it in the mainstream media, and it's not like this was discovered just then.
Actually, there's been a lot of attention in print including the NY Times, Bloomberg, Atlantic Monthly and a bunch of other places. Not on TV, though. We need it to be on TV. CNN has a documentary on the subject.

The program is part of CNN’s award-winning documentary series "CNN Presents." It is scheduled to air on CNN on Saturday, March 18, at 8 p.m., with a rebroadcast that night at 11 p.m., and Sunday, March 19, at 8 and 11 p.m.

In the short to medium term, energy services stocks. I've done great with them. Floserve (fls) is up 73% in a years. Also, Ethanol. I don't think its a viable technology, but thats of secondary importance to market psychology. Whats important in the near and mid term is that people think it will work so the stock will go up. So you buy it and try to sell it right before it becomes clear that we cannot maintain our agricultural yields, which is, of course, a primary requisite to Ethanol production, without oil. PEIX is a good pure-play ethanol stock. Other than tha, yes. Coal and coal services companies. Peabody is the Mobil of coal.
Ethanol has more than agricultural yields as a problem. It takes something like 1.3 gallons of fossil fuel to produce 1 gallon of ethanol at present. Game over. And I say that while living in the ethanol promotion capital of the world: North Dakota. Billboards everywhere! If it isn't a pro-life billboard, it's pro-ethanol...or an ad for a casino.

Ethanol has more than agricultural yields as a problem. It takes something like 1.3 gallons of fossil fuel to produce 1 gallon of ethanol at present. Game over. And I say that while living in the ethanol promotion capital of the world: North Dakota. Billboards everywhere! If it isn't a pro-life billboard, it's pro-ethanol...or an ad for a casino.
That's why I pointed out wether we will be able to maintian yields without oil. That's the crux of the problem. If we can keep the yields up without all those oil based chemicals and all the oil intensive farming equipement then ethanol is a viable suuplement to oil. I doubt it, though.

Actually, there's been a lot of attention in print including the NY Times, Bloomberg, Atlantic Monthly and a bunch of other places. Not on TV, though. We need it to be on TV. CNN has a documentary on the subject.
Oh, that's good. Awareness should start growing quickly then.

Oh, that's good. Awareness should start growing quickly then.
Yeah, unfortunately I'm not sure if its that we are becoming aware that we are driving towards a cliff or that we have driven over one.

Just look at the positive side: oil running out will end the dependency on Arabs. Feeding the conflicts in the region with oil money will end.

Just look at the positive side: oil running out will end the dependency on Arabs. Feeding the conflicts in the region with oil money will end.
More likely we will see a large scale conflict between the West and Asia to secure the remaining oil reserves in the Middle East and Central Asia.

God damnit. :mad: Where are all the Algae/biodiesel people? :mad:

God damnit. :mad: Where are all the Algae/biodiesel people? :mad:
Dunno' I'm more a nuclear-solar-undersea methane-geothermal-hydrogen people.

I don't know. Apart from the National Geographic over a year ago there hasn't been much talk about it in the mainstream media, and it's not like this was discovered just then.
And this, too: Rep. Bartlett on C-Span Tuesday March 14
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett, C-Span
Washington, DC - Congressman Roscoe Bartlett will mark the first anniversary of his first Peak Special Order speech with his 16th Special Order speech on that topic. The estimated start time will be between 7:30 pm Eastern and 8:30 pm Eastern. C-SPAN will broadcast it LIVE on cable and the Internet. Streaming video on C-SPAN can be accessed on the Internet at www.cspan.org/watch/ . The C-SPAN toll-free number for copies of floor speeches is 1-877-662-7726.

Dunno' I'm more a nuclear-solar-undersea methane-geothermal-hydrogen people.

Don't forget tidal driven turbines! :p

It's good news that this issue is increasingly entering people's awareness. Sadly, people with a clue are in the minority.
Agreed. Even more sadly, many of those without a clue are in office! :(

I am more of an "I know what my company is capable of building over the next 20 years" kind of guy. :rolleyes:

Well, the Pentagon published a report a year ago, saying climate change had serious international peace and security implications. The Bush administration winced at that one. How dare civil servants reach conclusions which challenge the prevailing ideology?


*Hums the Inquisition --err, Tory-- theme song*

I am more of an "I know what my company is capable of building over the next 20 years" kind of guy. :rolleyes:
That's an intriguing statement? Can you elaborate? :)

That's an intriguing statement? Can you elaborate? :)
I work for a multinational energy infrastructure construction conglomerate.

Yes, really. While studying for my engineering degree, I found energy policy so interesting, I chose the industry for my career.

I laugh at some of the suggestions people make sometimes. :rolleyes:

I work for a multinational energy infrastructure construction conglomerate.

Yes, really. While studying for my engineering degree, I found energy policy so interesting, I chose the industry for my career.

I laugh at some of the suggestions people make sometimes. :rolleyes:
I'm actually headed back to school to get a BS in geology and then an MS in Petrology.

What we need is hamsters running around on wheels to generate electricity. And use their poop to power our cars. Energy problems solved.

But I look at it like this. If we are able to maintain our society through a bunch of "wailing and gnashing of teeth" as Micheal Rupert says it, then these investments can save your ass. If we are not then the money you invested woudl have been worthless anyway. The most important thing you can do, however, is to GET OUT OF DEBT!!!!! As inflation and runaway interest rates take hold you'll be very happy if you have no or little debt.

I'm not at Uni yet, how am I meant to get somewhere to live without taking out a loan?

I'm not at Uni yet, how am I meant to get somewhere to live without taking out a loan?
Rent. The oil crisis will make most property values fall, anyway.

Rent. The oil crisis will make most property values fall, anyway.

What kind of time scale are we looking at here? When will things start to happen on a large scale?

What kind of time scale are we looking at here? When will things start to happen on a large scale?
Don't know for sure, but if you watch the oil market it looks soon. By soon I mean before 2010. Some say the peak is here or has happened.

Don't know for sure, but if you watch the oil market it looks soon. By soon I mean before 2010. Some say the peak is here or has happened.

Thanks.

I'm not at Uni yet, how am I meant to get somewhere to live without taking out a loan?
It's no problem. After peak oil hits and interests rates go up, just wait a minute and money will be worthless. So, when your creditors come telling you "You owe us 2 Gigazillion dollars" you can just say "I have 2 rotten apples" and they'll go "Ok, we'll take those"

Thanks.
No problem. If you really want to know more about it, click the Saudi saying in my signature.