NationStates Jolt Archive

As you all know, the United States is the worlds sole super-power. However, many nations (namely China, India, and the E.U., which isn't technically a nation but is still pretty powerful) are growing exponentially, and of all those nations China is the one that is most likely that we are going to have some sort of conflict with. Over what? Taiwan, probably. Or maybe if they support N. Korea if it invades S. Korea. But it is my firm belief that some time in the next 50 years (maybe even alot sooner), the United States and China will have fought a military conflict. In my opinion, it is inevitable. However, you people might not think that way.

Anyhoo, if you think the U.S. and China will eventually go to war, say why. If you don't think they will, say why.

*poll coming*

China and America will not go to war. The economy between them both is fairly strong and intertwined. It's not worth it.

On the other end, China will possibly end up just buying Taiwan or put in some political puppet somehow. But the subject on North Korea is doubtful. If North Korea invades South Korea, there is a doubt that China will helpthem a second time.

Full-scale wars between major powers are very unlikely these days, they are expensive. Since both China and the US rely on each other for a reasonable proportion of trade, I dont think either side will risk a "proper" war.

Although I would not say that a small skirmish that can be denied officialy by both sides (that is, the governments can deny that it was deliberate) i entirely out of the question. Because the more a nation has, it seems the more it needs to prove something.

Not within the next twenty years though, Chinese military is still a bit too far behind technologically to fight small-scale things.

Of course something could happen with China attacking, say, Taiwan and several countries jumping in on each side and unless there are soem half sane politicians in power at the time, that could go hugely wrong.

It's hard to say what will happen over the next 50 years because it's difficult to see where the changes that China is going through will leave it. There is a strong underground movement for free speech - in a nation with so many people, will the central government be able to maintain complete control? Also, the nation is huge, and many areas in the west of the country, far away from the coastal, major cities, are barely under government control at all. Will China even survive as a single nation?

If the Chinese Government adapts well to the challenges of the future, and, to be honest, the initial signs (acceptance of the capitalist market, for example) seems to show that they are adapting, then the most likely scenario in fifty years is one where China becomes the sole superpower. America will remain powerful, yes, perhaps even more powerful than it is today, but China will surpass even this power and dwarf the Americans. How can such an almightily huge economic power with strong military ambitions do anything else?

We should hope that the Chinese Government falls, because if it doesn't the world could easily be dominated by a tiny, tiny elite in charge of a nation of total poverty.

There is a problem with China and that is a large amount of its wealth is from the West and its consumers and if China does become a democracy as it has stated it wants to, then labour costs will rise meaning over the next 50 years a lot of the multinational companies that have set up shop in China may move to another country where its labour costs a low,which might hurt Chinas economy and lose a large portion of its wealth.

Eventually, I think it will happen, but I don't think it will in the next 50 years.

Trade ties and the technology gap between the two nations will keep us from doing anything so provocative that it starts a war.

However, China's resource needs are growing and that will eventually conflict with the US interests.

It can, though, be avoided if the US can modify it's energy infrastructure and continues (if not accelerates) its technological advances.

The only reason I can see for a war that may come up is this point with Iran supplying China with oil.
If the US goes in there with guns blazing, I'm a little curious as to what China's response will be.
If I had to predict, I'd say a minor skirmish, or maybe just a diplomatic incident... but I don't think China will just completely sit back and let it happen.

It won't happen for awhile. At least it won't happen until the next olympics pass.

In either case. I think china will collapse and switch off to democracy. China will probably split into 3 or 4 countries, and the coast will still play an important role in economics. You could probably say that China's east coast will be similar to japan.

I don't think there will be an actual war, only a Cold War at best. Now that Russia isn't their "enemy" anymore, they need a substitution, and they could use China there to continue their Cold War.

Also, most probably China will collapse very soon (just like Russia) and split into 3-4 countries of their own and becoming democracy. Most important of them would probably be the one on the east with Shanghai as its capital.

bumparoo.

Also, I've noticed you guys talking about China splitting into multiple countries. I don't really think that will happen; at most, Sinkiang and Tibet will leave.

As you all know, the United States is the worlds sole super-power. However, many nations (namely China, India, and the E.U., which isn't technically a nation but is still pretty powerful) are growing exponentially, and of all those nations China is the one that is most likely that we are going to have some sort of conflict with. Over what? Taiwan, probably. Or maybe if they support N. Korea if it invades S. Korea. But it is my firm belief that some time in the next 50 years (maybe even alot sooner), the United States and China will have fought a military conflict. In my opinion, it is inevitable. However, you people might not think that way.

Anyhoo, if you think the U.S. and China will eventually go to war, say why. If you don't think they will, say why.

*poll coming*


A war yes, but a trade-war that the US is allready loosing without noticing

Only thing I think would spark off a war is Taiwan or if they caught us spying on them.

bumparoo.

Also, I've noticed you guys talking about China splitting into multiple countries. I don't really think that will happen; at most, Sinkiang and Tibet will leave.

East Turkestan is like 80% Han Chinese now. I doubt they'd leave.

Give that it's likely to lead to a nuclear exchange and the death of every living creature on earth, I'd hope not. Still, Bush has another couple of years with his finger on the trigger, so who knows?

Only thing I think would spark off a war is Taiwan or if they caught us spying on them.

They already did that, remember? Spy plane crasharoo on Hainan? They held them for like a month.

Why China? In case you haven't noticed, Chinas stuck in a bearucracy choked state, and Avian Bird Flu won't help much either. America, isn't much better. Its already under siege about the war in Iraq, so imagine how the press would respond if America attacked a country which DIDN'T have terrorists.

East Turkestan is like 80% Han Chinese now. I doubt they'd leave.

Actually, the top three ethnicities are Uyghur (45.21%), Han (40.58%), and Kazakh (6.74%), with remaining 7.47 being alot of other groups.

But East Turkestan does have alot of Han chinese. However, the Muslims in Sinkiang can use a time-old tactic; Jihad.

Actually, the top three ethnicities are Uyghur (45.21%), Han (40.58%), and Kazakh (6.74%), with remaining 7.47 being alot of other groups.

But East Turkestan does have alot of Han chinese. However, the Muslims in Sinkiang can use a time-old tactic; Jihad.
We're talking about China here: the merest sniff of Jihad would be an excuse to wipe out every muslim in the country.

No, they've got too much to gain from peace...I mean, it would be impossible for them to seriously occupy the US, and the US would be unable to do the same to China...is it really worth sacrificing trillions of dollars in economic gains for a few islands and maybe Japan?

China's going to develop closer ties over the next few decades rather than turn in to a new USSR...if anything, things are only going to warm up between the nations because our economies complement each other so well.

We're talking about China here: the merest sniff of Jihad would be an excuse to wipe out every muslim in the country.

I'm talking about in the situation that China becomes democratic and collapses (a la Soviet Union).

However, in modern day China, you're probably right.

I'm talking about in the situation that China becomes democratic and collapses (a la Soviet Union).

However, in modern day China, you're probably right.
When that situation arises, we can discuss it, but I'm assuming that if Bush picks a fight with China in the next couple of years, it'll still be under the same management.
I'm not sure that a loosening of the state in China is immediately going to lead to a complete collapse either, but that's another debate.

Actually, the top three ethnicities are Uyghur (45.21%), Han (40.58%), and Kazakh (6.74%), with remaining 7.47 being alot of other groups.

But East Turkestan does have alot of Han chinese. However, the Muslims in Sinkiang can use a time-old tactic; Jihad.

Hmm. I must be thinking of Inner Mongolia. My mistake.

Hmm. I must be thinking of Inner Mongolia. My mistake.

Well, Inner Mongolia does have 80% Han, so you're prolly right.

However, don't worry; within 20 years, Sinkiang will be 80% Han Chinese too, unfortunatly...

BOMB THE BASTARDS!!! CLEAN THE WORLD OF THE YELLOW CANCER!!! KILL THEM ALL!!!!!!!:mp5: :mp5: :mp5: :mp5: :mp5: :mp5:

I seriously doubt US will go to war against China, i can't still forget the nuclear crisis they had with NK a couple of years ago, i still remember the americans asking NK stop building wmd's NK said "no" and that they were more than willing to wipe themselves out, along with america of course, the US just went to sit down like a dog and said nothing more about it.

China has nothing to lose. And everything to win

I think the US and China may end up fighting a long series of proxy wars like the US and USSR did only these wars will be much more violent and destructive. I think it may culminate in a toe to toe that could push us to the brink of extinction. If this happens it will be over oil.

I also think the US and China may become so economically intertwined that a war will become out of the question. I hope for the latter, but I lean towards the former.

International Opinion is too great not to care about. If the U.S starts the War, the World will most likely take China's side, if China starts the War, the World will most likely take the U.S's side.

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It'll be a Cold War.

I CAN'T WAIT!!!!

I think the US and China may end up fighting a long series of proxy wars like the US and USSR did only these wars will be much more violent and destructive. I think it may culminate in a toe to toe that could push us to the brink of extinction. If this happens it will be over oil.

I also think the US and China may become so economically intertwined that a war will become out of the question. I hope for the latter, but I lean towards the former.
Your country is gearing up to buy oil from the Chinese at present: if they tell Bush to shit pommegranates he'll have his surgeon open his stomach so that he can pass them out of his bowel whole.

Well, Inner Mongolia does have 80% Han, so you're prolly right.

However, don't worry; within 20 years, Sinkiang will be 80% Han Chinese too, unfortunatly...

Well Sinkiang has a history of Chinese rule, so I can swallow that a little bit more than, say, Tibet or Inner Mongolia.