NationStates Jolt Archive

Note - Someone hit me if this was already posted >_<.

Who will lead North Korea next?

By Sarah Buckley
BBC News

North Korea celebrates the 64th birthday of its secretive leader Kim Jong-il on Thursday, with marches, exhibitions and a national holiday.

Some had expected the successor to be announced last year
But for the outside world, anxious about North Korea's nuclear ambitions and economic malaise, Mr Kim's birthdays are a time to think about his succession.

This year is particularly pertinent. Kim Jong-il's father, at 63, had already made it clear his son was the successor and had started manoeuvring him into power.

Now the younger Mr Kim has turned 64, yet there have been no pointers as to the next leader, fuelling speculation he is unsure who to pick, or faces a power struggle behind the scenes.

"I think there's a feeling that there's no obvious successor. It wasn't as clear as it was under Kim Il-sung," said North Korea watcher Paul French.

Everybody is very respectful towards him. They treat him like a prophet

Achsanul Habib


Meeting the 'Dear Leader'
Press eulogies mark birthday

Three of Mr Kim's sons could be in the running.

If Mr Kim continues the tradition of passing power to the eldest son, Kim Jong-nam, in his mid 30s, would succeed.

However, analysts did believe - and some still do - that Kim Jong-nam ruined his chances in 2001, when Japanese officials caught him trying to sneak into Japan using a false passport, an incident which caused severe diplomatic embarrassment to Pyongyang.

But there is some evidence that the eldest son may have been forgiven. Diplomatic sources have told South Korean media that Mr Kim took Kim Jong-nam on a high-profile trip to China last month.

"Some think Kim Jong-nam is back in the frame. At the end of the day, these things get very Confucian and he's the eldest," said Mr French.


Kim Jong-il took on the mantle of his late father, Kim Il-sung

There has always been interest in two other sons, however, because they were born to a different woman, said to be Kim Jong-il's favourite consort.

The eldest of these is 24-year-old Kim Jong-chul. Little is known about this man, other than that he studied at an international school in Switzerland and is reported to be a fan of US baseball.

According to a Japanese sushi chef who worked for Kim Jong-il for 13 years, the 'Dear Leader' dismissed this son, saying: "He's useless. He's like a girl".

But according to South Korean media reports, his portraits and a slogan saying "Let's build an operation system for comrade Kim Jong-chul" have been hung in Korean Workers' Party (WPK) buildings.

KIM'S FAMILY
Kim has several children
His eldest son disgraced himself in Japan
But some believe he is back in favour. Others think a younger boy, Kim Jong-chul, is designated successor


N Korea's secretive first family

He is believed to work in the propaganda department of the WPK, as Kim Jong-il did before he became leader, but is not known to hold any state position.

By contrast, by the age Kim Jong-il is now, his father Kim Il-sung had already appointed him secretary of party organisation and he was being referred to as "the party centre".

Military option

Because there is no clear successor, analysts are increasingly speculating that a future leader will come from outside the Kim family - possibly from the army.

There is a "large groundswell [of opinion within the army] that the dynasty shouldn't go to the next Kim", said Mr French.

"If it goes to another Kim, he will have to continue the legacy of Kim Jong-il - therefore no economic reform and no progress on the nuclear weapons issue."

Mr French said that China, North Korea's closest ally, was pressing for change on these two fronts, and that Beijing traditionally has close ties with the North Korean military dating back to the 1950-53 Korean War.

Veteran North Korea watcher, Aidan Foster-Carter, mused that the current focus in the official media of the country's "songun" or "military first" philosophy suggested a military man could be next.


Eldest son Kim Jong-nam may be back in favour

He said that the succession issue should be getting more attention than it is from observers.

"I do think this issue is incredibly important and it is kind of late - by the time Kim Il-sung was Kim Jong-il's age, we had this under way."

"If he had a heart attack tomorrow, what would happen? It's really risky and I don't think there is a plan in place."

Kim Il-sung lived until he was 82, suggesting Kim Jong-il may have several more years of leadership yet, but Mr French pointed out that the portly Hennessey connoisseur is not in robust a health as his father was at this age.

Jim Hoare, a former UK diplomat in North Korea, said that it did not really matter who took over next.

"I'm always amused by the concern for North Korean constitutional niceties," he said, pointing out that Kim Jong-il's dead father is still designated 'eternal leader'.

"There is no absolute need to settle the succession [now] because the system's not going to change."

Article - http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4715438.stm

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Personally, I doubt the North Korean regime will fall considering that all of Kim Sung-il's descendants are all "brain-washed" in P'yongyang University to make them think that the North Korean regime must be how it is now for the rest of its life.

I also think that the only way North Korea's regime will end will be by a Second Korean War Breakout.

What are your opinions?

I also think that the only way North Korea's regime will end will be by a Second Korean War Breakout.

What are your opinions?I say the Koreas will reunite..

The new Korea shall keep Good relations with China and Japan.. end the lease for the US army bases.. may keep the Nukes.. and will try to keep good relations with the US.

I say the Koreas will reunite..

The new Korea shall keep Good relations with China and Japan.. end the lease for the US army bases.. may keep the Nukes.. and will try to keep good relations with the US.

Do you want them to reunite under communism or democracy? Peaceful or war? Should members of the North Korean regime be put on trial for crimes against humanity after they runite?

South Korea wants to unite, but their current policy is to improve the north first (in ways that could be used as a bargining chip, so nothing permanent). I read somewhere that if the Koreas united today the economy would collapse. Comparitively weaker, poorer and less developed then East Germany at the collapse of the Berlin wall was was compared to West Germany, but with a larger percent of the Korean population, North Korea cannot join the south in its current state.

South Korea wants to unite, but their current policy is to improve the north first (in ways that could be used as a bargining chip, so nothing permanent). I read somewhere that if the Koreas united today the economy would collapse. Comparitively weaker, poorer and less developed then East Germany at the collapse of the Berlin wall was was compared to West Germany, but with a larger percent of the Korean population, North Korea cannot join the south in its current state.

Actually, the North has less than 50% of the population of South Korea.

Actually, the North has less than 50% of the population of South Korea.
Although they would probably still criple the South, because the difference is probably going to be even greater than it was between the BRD and the DDR.

Although they would probably still criple the South, because the difference is probably going to be even greater than it was between the BRD and the DDR.

Yeah, i'm not disputing that.

East Germany had less population compared to the West, a quarter to a third IRRC. North Koreea has about half. Also, North Korea has something like one percent the economy of the South.

East Germany and West Germany don't contrast to North Korea and South Korea.

The two nations are far more bitter, although a lot more was at risk with the two Germanys.

The North Koreans have gone through much worst yet a percentage support their leader because most of them are in the Military and are actually treated better than what TV shows. They would stay faithful.

It would have to bring on a war in my mind, one that China would get involved if we get involved and do what MacArthur did - Push the North Koreans too close to the Chinese border. I think if a war breaks out, that we shouldn't back the South Koreans totally. Let them fight their own Civil War to bring peace and justice to the North, but still aid them. We have, over the course of 60 years, given South Koreans the supplies and tactics and training for this war ( Yes 60, we started helping all of Korea a lot right after WWII but North Korea sempt to be slipping so we really didn't do a lot for them ).

Basically, South and North will collide innevitably. It won't be the Berlin Wall, it will be the 38th Parallel Massacre. ( Can't spell that word ). Obviously Jong-Il won't find a succesor, seeing as he is having troubles with his three sons. He will end up picking the eldest, whom may see his younger brothers as a problem and may have the Military silence them. That or the two younger ones will seak asylum in Japan, S. Korea, or even America or China. The South Koreans will also put this to their advantage along with US and British spies by making the Kim family paranoid about one another. This would most definatly cause inner family fueds, and they will end up like some mid-1400s French Royal Family. It will leave the North vulnerable for anything and a hopeful and low ammount of blood reunion will take place but via Force.

Now one thing that could happen is a Military leader deposing Jong-Il, starting a war with the South in fear that they WILL strike with American forces, and rush the Nuclear programme to hold the World hostage, knowing that they could infact cause a Nuclear War.

But this is all just a Hypothesis and how I think things will happen with Korea, I left out several things like international things in the Mid-East and such. Well, hope you all like my 2-cents.

East Germany had less population compared to the West, a quarter to a third IRRC. North Koreea has about half. Also, North Korea has something like one percent the economy of the South.

North Korea - 22,912,177

South Korea - 48,422,644

Still a lot though.