NationStates Jolt Archive

COMMENTARY: The US and China are currently discussing putting in place a "hot line" similar to the one between the US and Russia. Based on this article, now would be a nice time. :rolleyes:


Commercial photos show Chinese nuke buildup (http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20060216-020211-7960r.htm)


By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
February 16, 2006

Commercial satellite photos made public recently provide a new look at China's nuclear forces and bases -- images that include the first view of a secret underwater submarine tunnel.
A Pentagon official said the photograph of the tunnel entrance reveals for the first time a key element of China's hidden military buildup. Similar but more detailed intelligence photos of the entrance are highly classified within the U.S. government, the official said.
"The Chinese have a whole network of secret facilities that the U.S. government understands but cannot make public," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "This is the first public revelation of China's secret buildup."
The photographs, taken from 2000 to 2004, show China's Xia-class ballistic missile submarine docked at the Jianggezhuang base, located on the Yellow Sea in Shandong province.
Nuclear warheads for the submarine's 12 JL-1 missiles are thought to be stored inside an underwater tunnel that was photographed about 450 meters to the northwest of the submarine. The high-resolution satellite photo shows a waterway leading to a ground-covered facility.
Other photographs show additional underground military facilities, including the Feidong air base in Anhui province with a runway built into a nearby hill.
The photographs were obtained by the nonprofit groups Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and Federation of American Scientists. The photos first appeared Friday in the winter edition of the quarterly newsletter Imaging Notes.
The photographs are sharp enough to identify objects on the ground about 3 feet in size. Such digital images were once the exclusive domain of U.S. technical intelligence agencies, but in recent years, commercial companies have deployed equally capable space-based cameras.
Disclosure of the underground bases supports analyses of Pentagon and intelligence officials who say China is engaged in a secret military buildup that threatens U.S. interests, while stating publicly that its forces pose no threat.
Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said during a trip to China in October that Beijing was sending "mixed signals" by building up forces in secret and without explaining their purpose.
Adm. Gary Roughead, commander of the Navy's Pacific Fleet, said he did not consider China "a threat." But he also said in a speech Tuesday that China's purpose behind its rapid military buildup is not fully known. "That's a little unclear," he said, noting that "increased transparency" is needed from China.
The photographs included several shots of Chinese H-6 strategic bombers and related aerial refueling tankers at Dangyang airfield in Hubei province. Also, 70 nuclear-capable Qian-5 aircraft were photographed parked at an airfield in Jianqiao, Zhejiang province, on the East China Sea coast.

[ This article is two pages long. To read the rest of the article, go here (http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20060216-020211-7960r_page2.htm). ]

Disclosure of the underground bases supports analyses of Pentagon and intelligence officials who say China is engaged in a secret military buildup that threatens U.S. interests, while stating publicly that its forces pose no threat.


What US interests? :confused:

Taiwan?

How would Taiwan really be in the best interests of the US?

You're saying that China is going to nuke the US? That sounds rather implausible. Could it not be that they're just paranoid, and want maximum possible defense?

I think it's that China desperately wants to be seen as an equal with the West. For centuries China was under the boot of the various Western powers and has only recently began to recover. China is currently a middle power, but very much wants to be in the "big boys" club, and having a sizeable nuclear arsenal and a military capable of force projection is part of that.

Give me a break. How many nukes does the US have? How many nukes does Russia have? And the UK, and France? Uh-huh. And what are the Chinese going to do with their nukes? Strut around all oiled up, showing them off? :rolleyes:

Dude, no-one cares. They're part of the establishment now. They've walked through the door, got the job, and have their own office. Move on, it's over.

It's hard for the US to sit on its giant pile of nuclear weapons and point at others about thiers.

I think it's that China desperately wants to be seen as an equal with the West. For centuries China was under the boot of the various Western powers and has only recently began to recover. China is currently a middle power, but very much wants to be in the "big boys" club, and having a sizeable nuclear arsenal and a military capable of force projection is part of that.

Yup, I think that China is angling for superpower status.

What US interests? :confused:

Taiwan?

How would Taiwan really be in the best interests of the US?

Someone's gotta make all those shitty vending machine toys.

actually theres an official american policy to prevent europe from seperating from the U.S. influence and to prevent china becoming a major rival.

Haha, Chinese Hegemony.

Actually I was talking to the GF about this last night, and we both agreed that while there are some downsides to living under the chinese thumb, there are some positives too. For a start they don't seem to care for 'activists', 'populists', or people like Charles Schumer.

So it's not all bad.

China's got a shitty government, regardless. Incredibly corrupt, inhumane, and irresponsible. They can't keep their own people under control (in the context of having to pass legislation on how many kids you're supposed to have).

What an odd statement to make. Europe isn't under American influence. The British and the Eastern European countries have historical reasons for supporting American policies, but countries like France, Germany, Finland and others pretty much do their own thing.

who cares if theyre " misleading" anyone. what do you think the United States has been doing for the last 50 years?



and also i cant wait for the day when china conquers the world. death to the capitalist american and everything he stands for.

Yet when Iraq might have had nukes, it's grounds for an invasion.

:rolleyes:

Got to love the United States and their double standards.

Yet when Iraq might have had nukes, it's grounds for an invasion.

:rolleyes:

Got to love the United States and their double standards.

Yeah, we suck. I thought that was a given.

China's economic ties with the West are all it needs to "blackmail" it into silence. Various censorships reguarding free-speech required by the government are causing ever furthur unrest, along with its full throttle economic policies. China is in no position to threathen the status quo, as of now.

Methink's we've got nothing to fear until China cleans up its own problems.

China's got a shitty government, regardless. Incredibly corrupt, inhumane, and irresponsible. They can't keep their own people under control (in the context of having to pass legislation on how many kids you're supposed to have).

Is it really that bad? I mean, it's a little poor on civil rights, but its not like governments anywhere else are shining beacons of incorruptibility. (Well scandinavia maybe).

And at least the chinese government doesn't waste your time with all the pointless posturing and electioneering and special interest group politics that everywhere else does.

I think the one child policy bespeaks a greater responsibility than practically every other nation on earth. We can't even build a few lously nuclear reactors, mostly because our government is corrupt and irresponsible.

who cares if theyre " misleading" anyone. what do you think the United States has been doing for the last 50 years?



and also i cant wait for the day when china conquers the world. death to the capitalist american and everything he stands for.

Yeah cause killing people is the solution to problems, we ALL know that.

What US interests? :confused:

Taiwan?
No. Self-preservation.

You're saying that China is going to nuke the US? That sounds rather implausible. Could it not be that they're just paranoid, and want maximum possible defense?
It's possible, yes.

Yeah cause killing people is the solution to problems, we ALL know that.

That's how the United States fights terrorism and spreads democracy. Killing people.

I think it's that China desperately wants to be seen as an equal with the West. For centuries China was under the boot of the various Western powers and has only recently began to recover. China is currently a middle power, but very much wants to be in the "big boys" club, and having a sizeable nuclear arsenal and a military capable of force projection is part of that.
I tend to agree with you on this.

Give me a break. How many nukes does the US have? How many nukes does Russia have? And the UK, and France? Uh-huh. And what are the Chinese going to do with their nukes? Strut around all oiled up, showing them off? :rolleyes:

Dude, no-one cares. They're part of the establishment now. They've walked through the door, got the job, and have their own office. Move on, it's over.
I was quoting the article, not taking a political position. :rolleyes:

That's how the United States fights terrorism and spreads democracy. Killing people.

Never said that was right, did I?

But I was more pointing to the fact that he was proposing killing of a couple of hundred of millions...

It's hard for the US to sit on its giant pile of nuclear weapons and point at others about thiers.
Did you read the article? It's the fact of keeping their military build-up secret which is cause for concern, not the fact of their having nuclear weapons.

actually theres an official american policy to prevent europe from seperating from the U.S. influence and to prevent china becoming a major rival.
Your proof?

If you look at Chinese history you can see why they would want to be able to defend themselves from the West.

I don't think they'll be trying to threaten the United States to try to dominate the international system. China has historically been a very inward looking country. I think what they want is to be an equal of the United States, which is something the US govt doesn't want.

No. Self-preservation.

...you honestly think.... China is going to launch a tactical nuclear strike on the United States....

who cares if theyre " misleading" anyone. what do you think the United States has been doing for the last 50 years?

and also i cant wait for the day when china conquers the world. death to the capitalist american and everything he stands for.
Have you considered retaining the services of a competent mental health professional?

Yet when Iraq might have had nukes, it's grounds for an invasion.

Got to love the United States and their double standards.
Ah, Gauthier! Back to your old practices of "America-bashing" I see. One would have hoped you might have actually learned something these past few months, but such is obviously not the case. I lay awake nights worrying about you. Tsk!

This article is obviously an example of the left-wing liberal bias in the Mainstream Media.

Why does the Washington Times hate America so???!!!??

...oh wait...

What US interests? :confused:

Taiwan?

How would Taiwan really be in the best interests of the US?
Oil. By force, if necessary.

It's possible, yes.

No, they won't use nukes. They are rational and self interested. The leadership in china knows that the US combined nuclear forces are more than enough to turn their entire country into black glass. And they have no way of disabling them with a first strike, because they are submarine launched.

Is chinese hegemony coming? Probably, but I don't imagine that they'll be all that interested in how the US conducts it's business outside of their own sphere of interest. There is no upside to it. Philosophically the chinese are not out to make the rest of the world chinese. They certianly didn't before when they had the chance.

If anything, they'll be more concerned with India during the next century anyway, as that is their local rival. Those two countries have to duke it out before they can think about dominating the West anyway. Which frankly, will save the US the bother.

Anyway, the first best step to maintaining a lead of china is not worrying about whether or not they can nuke the US (which they've been able to do for years), but gaining complete energy self-sufficiency. That would make the US's global position immeasurably more secure. There is no evidence of that happening however, so I for one, welcome our new chinese overlords.

...you honestly think.... China is going to launch a tactical nuclear strike on the United States....
No. Please avoid placing unwanted words in my mouth.

There is nothing wrong, nor threatening, about China having nuclear weapons. :)

No. Please avoid placing unwanted words in my mouth.

Ok then. Explain what you did mean by :

No. Self-preservation.


When asked about what US interests would be affected by a Chinese build up.

Please, do explain because I don't know what else could be infered from your words.

No, they won't use nukes. They are rational and self interested. The leadership in china knows that the US combined nuclear forces are more than enough to turn their entire country into black glass. And they have no way of disabling them with a first strike, because they are submarine launched.

Is chinese hegemony coming? Probably, but I don't imagine that they'll be all that interested in how the US conducts it's business outside of their own sphere of interest. There is no upside to it. Philosophically the chinese are not out to make the rest of the world chinese. They certianly didn't before when they had the chance.

If anything, they'll be more concerned with India during the next century anyway, as that is their local rival. Those two countries have to duke it out before they can think about dominating the West anyway. Which frankly, will save the US the bother.

Anyway, the first best step to maintaining a lead of china is not worrying about whether or not they can nuke the US (which they've been able to do for years), but gaining complete energy self-sufficiency. That would make the US's global position immeasurably more secure. There is no evidence of that happening however, so I for one, welcome our new chinese overlords.
Interesting analysis, but the last paragraph underestimates the abilities of the US for self-renewal. I suspect that the current interest in alternative fuels, the experimentation with hybrids, etc., is the beginning of another engineering revolution. At least I hope it is!

Philosophically the chinese are not out to make the rest of the world chinese. They certianly didn't before when they had the chance.
That doesn't mean they wont, though. ;)

There is nothing wrong, nor threatening, about China having nuclear weapons. :)
I agree. As the article points out, it's not the fact of China's nuclear weapons that has generated concern. It's the military build-up in secret.

Yet when Iraq might have had nukes, it's grounds for an invasion.

:rolleyes:

Got to love the United States and their double standards.

There aren't enough bullets for an invasion of china.

Did you read the article? It's the fact of keeping their military build-up secret which is cause for concern, not the fact of their having nuclear weapons.

I'm guessing this is just generic Chinese paranoia and secrecy rather than anything sinister. When that Chinese submarine was broken down on the sea bed they were extremely reluctant to allow western rescue vessels into the area because they were afraid of spying.

I think China will become more democratic soon anyway, their attempts to censor the internet are failing in the face of so many users finding loopholes so they can read about democracy or look at pornography. The rapid growth of Christianity in China will probably help to weaken the secular government as well.

I don't see any sort of Chinese hegemony coming. If anything I see a multipolar system where economic strength counts for a lot more than military strength. Also, as globalization continues it'll be much, much harder for larger powers to do anything hostile to each other without wrecking themselves economically in the process.

Ok then. Explain what you did mean.

When asked about what US interests would be affected by a Chinese build up.

Please, do explain because I don't know what else could be infered from your words.
It's the unknown quantity of a secret military build-up that is cause for concern. America has been a bit paranoid about secret military activities ever since the Cold War.

Ah, Gauthier! Back to your old practices of "America-bashing" I see. One would have hoped you might have actually learned something these past few months, but such is obviously not the case. I lay awake nights worrying about you. Tsk!

Those are funny words coming from someone who thinks Ngo Dinh Diem, Gus Pinochet and the Shah were all outstanding men committed to democratic principles.

:p

I'm guessing this is just generic Chinese paranoia and secrecy rather than anything sinister. When that Chinese submarine was broken down on the sea bed they were extremely reluctant to allow western rescue vessels into the area because they were afraid of spying.

I think China will become more democratic soon anyway ...
I hope you are correct. :)

Those are funny words coming from someone who thinks Ngo Dinh Diem, Gus Pinochet and the Shah were all outstanding men committed to democratic principles.

:p
Gauthier, you so ... wierd. I don't recall ever mentioning any of those "gentlemen" in any post on here. Where on earth do you GET such thoughts?

It's the unknown quantity of a secret military build-up that is cause for concern. America has been a bit paranoid about secret military activities ever since the Cold War.

Yes, but that concern would be over "They going to attack us!" (a la USSR vs US) or "They're going to attack one of our allies!".

I still fail to see why the US's self preservation would be compromised by China building up its military, secretly or not. :confused:

Interesting analysis, but the last paragraph underestimates the abilities of the US for self-renewal. I suspect that the current interest in alternative fuels, the experimentation with hybrids, etc., is the beginning of another engineering revolution. At least I hope it is!

I have no doubt that the US has the capability to achieve energy independence within a surprisingly short time if it wanted. It has a huge pool of capital and talent to draw upon, rivaled - but not surpassed - only by western europe. We could start tommorow if we wanted.

I question whether or not the will is there however, and whether or not it will be put off until too late.

I am old enough to remember that this debate has been going on since the 70s, and really nothing has come of it. Sadly, hunting accidents are more important that things like energy independence.

Is it really that bad? I mean, it's a little poor on civil rights, but its not like governments anywhere else are shining beacons of incorruptibility. (Well scandinavia maybe).

And at least the chinese government doesn't waste your time with all the pointless posturing and electioneering and special interest group politics that everywhere else does.

I think the one child policy bespeaks a greater responsibility than practically every other nation on earth. We can't even build a few lously nuclear reactors, mostly because our government is corrupt and irresponsible.

http://www.infowars.com/articles/ps/china_total_dehumanization.htm

http://www.infowars.com/articles/ps/china_total_dehumanization_images.htm

That's mostly what I base my opinion off of. If someone can defend or debate that, then I might change it.

Yes, but that concern would be over "They going to attack us!" (a la USSR vs US) or "They're going to attack one of our allies!".

I still fail to see why the US's self preservation would be compromised by China building up its military, secretly or not. :confused:
Not knowing what an extremely powerful oligarchy intends is usually considered unacceptable as a means of self-preservation. It's the uncertainty as to WHY they are building up in secret.

I have no doubt that the US has the capability to achieve energy independence within a surprisingly short time if it wanted. It has a huge pool of capital and talent to draw upon, rivaled - but not surpassed - only by western europe. We could start tommorow if we wanted.

I question whether or not the will is there however, and whether or not it will be put off until too late.

I am old enough to remember that this debate has been going on since the 70s, and really nothing has come of it. Sadly, hunting accidents are more important that things like energy independence.
Thank you, gentlemen and ladies of the press! Sigh.

All we really need to do is avoid keeping the price of oil products artifically low. The market will take care of the rest.

China knows that world oil supplies are tight and are probably going to continue to get tighter. They are building a military because they think a showdown with the west over the last remaining oil reserves in the Middle East and Central Asia may be on the way. Though China and the west are probably rational enough not to go nuke over it, there's a real possibility of regional skirmishes as we try to secure our respective supplies. That's exactly what this is about. Peak Oil.

Not knowing what an extremely powerful oligarchy intends is usually considered unacceptable as a means of self-preservation. It's the uncertainty as to WHY they are building up in secret.

Fair enough I suppose.

I would have thought the very obvious and public knowledge of the United States' own nuclear arsenal would have allayed your fears- but meh.

...you honestly think.... China is going to launch a tactical nuclear strike on the United States....

Well, they recently announced a nuke doctrine which says that "we will use nukes if our forces are attacked even conventionally in their area of influence".

Since they see Taiwan as part of China, they are all set doctrinally to use nukes on forces that come to the aid of Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion.

No first use (NFU) is becoming a thing of the past. US is not NFU now. They even have a pre-emptive option for using nukes. China too. Pakistan was never NFU. Even France said they retain the option of using nukes on terrorists. Israel has their so-called Samson option. Only Russia, UK and India are left. I am not really sure about Russia and UK because I have not updated on their nuke doctrines. If I am wrong, pl correct.

China knows that world oil supplies are tight and are probably going to continue to get tighter. They are building a military because they think a showdown with the west over the last remaining oil reserves in the Middle East and Central Asia may be on the way. Though China and the west are probably rational enough not to go nuke over it, there's a real possibility of regional skirmishes as we try to secure our respective supplies. That's exactly what this is about. Peak Oil.
Hmm. Intriguing.

I hope you are correct. :)

History has shown that it is near impossible for autocracy/dictatorship to last in a developed country. One of the needs of a modernised economy is an educated workforce and an educated workforce is both smart enough to recognise oppression and intelligent enough to work against the government. The growth of Christianity is an indication of people's disaffection for the government: they've lost faith in the state and so they look for something else to believe in. A large proportion of Chinese citizens demanding religous freedom will come soon and will be the first step towards more freedoms and eventually democracy.

Just don't quote me on this when China invades Taiwan...

Gauthier, you so ... wierd. I don't recall ever mentioning any of those "gentlemen" in any post on here. Where on earth do you GET such thoughts?

Because they were all propped up to power by the United States in its own interest. And obviously anyone who questions United States policy is an America-Bashing Traitor in your own beliefs.

Let's face it; the United States will not invade a country that has actual nukes. Do you think Your War Hero George W. Bush would have sent the troops into Baghdad if Saddam really did have nuclear weapons that could have been used on the troops or sent to the United States?

Besides, Chinese Nukes are moot point for you to bitch and weep about since China has an economic deathgrip on the Financial Testicles of America, what little hasn't been outsourced anyways. Those nukes are more status symbols and deterrents than actual threats. Hell, they want Taiwan intact too badly to send the nukes there.

What this is, plain a simple is American paranoia. The "good Ol' US" has got more Nukes that Western Europe combined, the biggest standing army (closely followed by China, I might add) and the most powerful economy, and as soon as another nation starts to rival that the flag waving American jumps in and causes a whole lotta trouble, which is inevitably where this will lead, and as PsychoticDan said, the catalyst will be the oil, it's why Iraq was invaded, and it'll be why the West will go to war with China.

-snip-
Taiwan? Yeah probably.

US?..... They're Communist. Not morons.

I don't see any sort of Chinese hegemony coming.

Chinese are already hegemonistic.

Invasion and occupation of Tibet. Invasion and occupation of Aksai Chin of Kashmir. Territorial claims on the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. Claims on Taiwan.

They have to prove that they are non-hegemonistic to be trusted with their military upgradations. There is certainly enough history to mistrust their ambitions.

Hmm. Intriguing.
Think about it. There are three things China is doing fast.

1. Building an economy. GDP growth of a blistering 10%.
2. Building a blue water navy.
3. Securing oil supplies all over the Middle East, Africa and even Canada. Hell, last year they tried to buy Unocal. They have been talking to people in South America and even Mexico as well.

Did you read the article? It's the fact of keeping their military build-up secret which is cause for concern, not the fact of their having nuclear weapons.
We make such a big deal ourselves about not revealling everything about our military and some of the things it does, it doesn't suprise me that other countries would also like to keep some cards close to their chest. It's still a glass house situation.

For some reason, and this is a non-sequitor, I had the image of the US as Tony from Scarface, "First you get the Nukes, then you get the power, then you get the women..." which is the image we convey everytime we get jumpy about other peoples nukes...We've endorsed nuclear weapons as a seat at the table several times over.

Chinese are already hegemonistic.

Invasion and occupation of Tibet. Invasion and occupation of Aksai Chin of Kashmir. Territorial claims on the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. Claims on Taiwan.

They have to prove that they are non-hegemonistic to be trusted with their military upgradations. There is certainly enough history to mistrust their ambitions.

You're right, I should have said "I don't see any sort of global Chinese hegemony coming."

It's the unknown quantity of a secret military build-up that is cause for concern. America has been a bit paranoid about secret military activities ever since the Cold War.
Which is why the US discloses every single military development and area of research.

Every country develops areas of their military in secret. It's a little something called "national security." And everybody is trying to find out what the others are doing, on the same grounds.

That China keeps some of their military secret should come as no surprise. What comes as a bit of a surprise is that civilian technology is getting good enough to uncover them. Soon no government will be able to keep many secrets.

That's not necessarily a bad thing, if you ask me.

Well, they recently announced a nuke doctrine which says that "we will use nukes if our forces are attacked even conventionally in their area of influence".

Since they see Taiwan as part of China, they are all set doctrinally to use nukes on forces that come to the aid of Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion.

No first use (NFU) is becoming a thing of the past. US is not NFU now. They even have a pre-emptive option for using nukes. China too. Pakistan was never NFU. Even France said they retain the option of using nukes on terrorists. Israel has their so-called Samson option. Only Russia, UK and India are left. I am not really sure about Russia and UK because I have not updated on their nuke doctrines. If I am wrong, pl correct.

The UK isn't a no first use nation. It accepts first use in certian circumstances, for example protecting 'vital interests' or invasion of its territories.

In 2004, China revealed the first of a new class of submarines. The development of the Yuan-class submarines was kept secret through the use of an underground factory in south-central China, the officials said.
Since 2002, Beijing has deployed 14 submarines. And it is working on a new ballistic-missile submarine, known as the Jin class, and two new Shang-class attack submarines.so the chicoms are heavily constructing subs.

Q; what helps against subs?
A: new, better SONAR!

Q: what do the animalrightswackos want us to stop testing and develloping, because some fat mammals may be inconvenienced by it?
A: new, better SONAR!

Q: who will be the death of us all, if we let them get what they want?
A: animalrightswackos!Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said during a trip to China in October that Beijing was sending "mixed signals" by building up forces in secret and without explaining their purpose.now that isnt true, china has been very clear about what they plan: they want to attack and occupy taiwan.Give me a break. How many nukes does the US have? How many nukes does Russia have? And the UK, and France? Uh-huh. And what are the Chinese going to do with their nukes? Strut around all oiled up, showing them off? :rolleyes:the chicoms would not start with a nuclear attack against US territory, but if they decide to invade taiwan and the US sends carriergroups to stop them, then they would use the nukes against the carriergroups.

THEY WANT REVENGE!!!! (jk)

Seriously, china must be seen as a threat to the west, not only in the economical point of view, but also from the military point of view. If the western powers continue to turn a blind-eye to china's military rebuild, and most specially to its nuclear arsenal, then we're going to make some difficult choices, choices that can costs millions of lifes, both civilian and military.

Something has to be done before we regret not making it earlier, believe it or not China wants not only to play in the big leagues, also it wants to be the champion of the big leagues.

If we could stop thinking in oil and money, and really start thinking in our people we can prevent this predators, that spread as fast as cancer, then we'll be removed....

*snip*

now that isnt true, china has been very clear about what they plan: they want to attack and occupy taiwan.the chicoms would not start with a nuclear attack against US territory, but if they decide to invade taiwan and the US sends carriergroups to stop them, then they would use the nukes against the carriergroups.

Kind of a waste, unless their nukes are the equivalent of those that you'd find in Starcraft.

What hasn't been mention here is that China and Japan are enemies and Japan's best ally is the US. Japan has no domestic oil supplies and, in fact, their only domestic energy supply comes from a very large natural gas deposit in the Sea of Japan. Japan and China have been fighting over it now for years and now China is just ignoring them and sending drilling fleets out to the deposit escorted by war ships. Also, it's not just that they claim to have a right to Taiwan, it's also that the US is bound by treaty to defend Taiwan in the even they are invaded by China. This is a big, tangled web and it all goes back to energy. In order to maintain a 10% GDP growth rate China must have oil and gas. There is no way to grow your economy at that kind of pace without increasing your energy consumption and China is already a net importer of everything except coal.

This is all about energy. For the next several decades everything is going to be about energy.

what they plan: they want to attack and occupy taiwan.
Actually, the major political party in Taiwan wishes to join back up with China "when the time is right". Seeking reunification is on the agenda of both sides. You're stuck in the past man, read the news!

More on the Japan/natural gas angle:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2005/09/11/MNGDGELU7M1.DTL

What hasn't been mention here is that China and Japan are enemies and Japan's best ally is the US. Japan has no domestic oil supplies and, in fact, their only domestic energy supply comes from a very large natural gas deposit in the Sea of Japan. Japan and China have been fighting over it now for years and now China is just ignoring them and sending drilling fleets out to the deposit escorted by war ships. Also, it's not just that they claim to have a right to Taiwan, it's also that the US is bound by treaty to defend Taiwan in the even they are invaded by China. This is a big, tangled web and it all goes back to energy. In order to maintain a 10% GDP growth rate China must have oil and gas. There is no way to grow your economy at that kind of pace without increasing your energy consumption and China is already a net importer of everything except coal.

This is all about energy. For the next several decades everything is going to be about energy.

Seems to me it's all about China being powerhungry bastards that just want to grow and grow and don't care what they have to do to do it.

Seems to me it's all about China being powerhungry bastards that just want to grow and grow and don't care what they have to do to do it.
Kinda like Japan in the lead up to WWII. History repeats itself. Surprise, surprise.

Think about it. There are three things China is doing fast.

1. Building an economy. GDP growth of a blistering 10%.
2. Building a blue water navy.
3. Securing oil supplies all over the Middle East, Africa and even Canada. Hell, last year they tried to buy Unocal. They have been talking to people in South America and even Mexico as well.
1) America has already built one.
2) America has already built one.
3) America already has those (25% world total)

What's the problem? Can't handle the fact that someone else has made it too?

the chicoms would not start with a nuclear attack against US territory, but if they decide to invade taiwan and the US sends carriergroups to stop them, then they would use the nukes against the carriergroups.
They care about money more than territory. Taiwan would be a money sink. What's the point of risking everything for a pathetic little island, when you could wait just as long and buy up property all over the globe? Give them some credit for their intelligence. They have learned from the mistakes of others.

Fair enough I suppose.

I would have thought the very obvious and public knowledge of the United States' own nuclear arsenal would have allayed your fears- but meh.
My fears? You mean mine, personally? Heh!

hmm power hungry , hmm that sounds like hmm

oh whats it called

oh yeah THE WEST

china is coming china will be better than the west stopping worrying about it and accept it theres nothing wrong with communism or the chinese they are perfectly rationable people.


you all seem to forget china is goin through its industrial revolution and as far as i am concerned it is doin it about 100 times better than we did without doubt



and as for all this stuff about hegenism or whatever the word was i cant remeber and about stealing land from tibet and india is this not exactly what the usa did to the indians ( native american indians) and mexicans

1) America has already built one.
2) America has already built one.
3) America already has those (25% world total)

What's the problem? Can't handle the fact that someone else has made it too?
Can you do me a favor and reread my post and point out where I made any value judgement about what they were doing? I simply stated some facts. I didn't say I blame them for anything. I really don't have any problem with China, I just realize that our relationship is at a tipping point and that tipping point is made of oil. Actually, the US and China do have one thing in common that can help both of them bridge the coming energy crunch if they cooperate. The US has the largest supply of high quality coal in the world and the country with the next biggest supply is China. I think coal is the fuel of the immediate future and its American companies, Like Flowserve and haliburton, that have already won contracts in China for research into clean coal technologies.

It could go either way. We are both going to experience an energy crisis the likes of which we have never seen. We can fight over what's left or we can help each other through it. I hope the flip side of our relationship, the side where we both have huge vested interests in each other's economy, is teh sde that decides our mutual fates. :)

It could go either way. We are both going to experience an energy crisis the likes of which we have never seen. We can fight over what's left or we can help each other through it. I hope the flip side of our relationship, the side where we both have huge vested interests in each other's economy, is teh sde that decides our mutual fates. :)
That being the case, I retract my closing comment. :)

I have become accustomed to people posting some China stats and going off on a racially-inspired case about how they're the new Nazi Germany. :rolleyes:

hmm power hungry , hmm that sounds like hmm

oh whats it called

oh yeah THE WEST

china is coming china will be better than the west stopping worrying about it and accept it theres nothing wrong with communism or the chinese they are perfectly rationable people.


you all seem to forget china is goin through its industrial revolution and as far as i am concerned it is doin it about 100 times better than we did without doubt

hmm, so-called communists, hmm they spread faster than cancer, hmm that sounds like:

THEY YELLOW CANCER (aka CHINA)

they are an extremely dangerous threat, look at the asians (well some) they don't care about dying, they're willing to work for only a rice ration, they come to the west fleeing from their awfull goverment.

Yeah they may be having a gret growing rate, however that doesn't justify what they are...

Actually, the US and China do have one thing in common that can help both of them bridge the coming energy crunch if they cooperate. The US has the largest supply of high quality coal in the world and the country with the next biggest supply is China. I think coal is the fuel of the immediate future and its American companies, Like Flowserve and haliburton, that have already won contracts in China for research into clean coal technologies.
Is clean coal tech really all that clean? I though China had given up building coal, and has started going for nuclear power. India has. France has. Finland's thinking about it again. Nuclear power is the way. The coal in the states pollutes more than nuclear power, and produces less energy, becuase it is rich in uranium. Immidiate future, yes, but that'd just prolong weaning us off of fossil fuels.

Kind of a waste, unless their nukes are the equivalent of those that you'd find in Starcraft.a carriergroup is not a waste at all, on the contrary it is maybe the best target for a nuke one can think of.They care about money more than territory. Taiwan would be a money sink. What's the point of risking everything for a pathetic little island, when you could wait just as long and buy up property all over the globe? Give them some credit for their intelligence. They have learned from the mistakes of others.taiwan is a symbol for them: a rogue colony, it also acts as a catalyst for instability in their system as it provides a positive example for an alternative to the chinese people, add the fact, that taiwan has relatively free media, that the mainland chinese can understand. taking out that rebel island is high proirity.
if they had learned from mistakes of others, why dont they withdraw from tibet?

kuehenberg ( i would quote but dunno how)

this is exactly what europeans were like in the industrial revolution, china is going through its industrial revolution

the europeans would have left their country and awful governement but there was no better it was the best its just because there is better than industrial revolution that chinese leave

i will ignore the yellow cancer comment even though it is begining to step towards the wrong side of the rascism line in my opinion ( maybe not yours)

I heard a story once, about Nixon's trip to China.

So Nixon meets with Chairman Mao, and, although there is all the expected diplomatic courtesy, Nixon is Nixon and cannot help frequently referring to America's many strengths and virtues.

After a particularly long stretch of America-fluffing, Nixon pauses and says to Mao, "Well, what do you think of that?"

Mao replies, simply, "In 3000 years, China will be here."

kuehenberg ( i would quote but dunno how)

this is exactly what europeans were like in the industrial revolution, china is going through its industrial revolution

the europeans would have left their country and awful governement but there was no better it was the best its just because there is better than industrial revolution that chinese leave

i will ignore the yellow cancer comment even though it is begining to step towards the wrong side of the rascism line in my opinion ( maybe not yours)

Sorry if my yellow cancer line offended you, i have nothing against chinese (not all) but to every country i've travelled i have seen large numbers of chinese living in it, some people don't care, others do and much, they think that will trigger a second version of the holocaust, only this time with chinese, their numbers are to great, according to a report, every second a new chinese is born... some french don't want to go to their beaches because they're full of chinese...those numbers are really alarming WE MUST HAVE BALANCE

Mao replies, simply, "In 3000 years, China will be here."
America could very well be "here" as well. What can happen in 3000 years? A lot.

so the chicoms are heavily constructing subs.

Q; what helps against subs?
A: new, better SONAR!

Q: what do the animalrightswackos want us to stop testing and develloping, because some fat mammals may be inconvenienced by it?
A: new, better SONAR!

Q: who will be the death of us all, if we let them get what they want?
A: animalrightswackos!sad.

china is halting its growth they are trying to stop this they have a one child policy and for the french thing that is proper rascism

dont worry i wasnt offended too much by the yellow cancer thing im not chinese

if they had learned from mistakes of others, why dont they withdraw from tibet?
Same reason the UK won't withdraw from Northern Ireland. Because they won, and have integrated the territory.

America could very well be "here" as well. What can happen in 3000 years? A lot.

Make that a hell of a lot.


I'm actually pretty surprised. The first time these China topics came around, there was China/America bashing bursting at the seams of the thread. Cooler heads have prevailed! Sort of.

About the whole mass numbers of Chinese people everywhere...thing. I hear that within a decade or two, India will have more people anyway. Though I wonder, would there still be more Chinese people worldwide?

I once read "Mein Kampf" I trust i don't have to name the author, he said:

" A chinese may speak german, and may be born in germany, but still he's a chinese, a foreigner can learn any language but still they're foreign to the country they live if it isn't its own"

Ah, Gauthier! Back to your old practices of "America-bashing" I see. One would have hoped you might have actually learned something these past few months, but such is obviously not the case. I lay awake nights worrying about you. Tsk!

Ad hominem attacks are so convenient.

Play the ball and not the man.

Is clean coal tech really all that clean?
It certainly can be clean depending on how you sequester the CO2, but in terms of trace pollutants like Mercury, probably not. Even if you can remove them from the exhaust, you still have to deal with the solid waste, but that's no different than nuclear.


I though China had given up building coal, and has started going for nuclear power. India has. France has. Finland's thinking about it again.No, they have not. Flowserve, a company I own stock in so I'm very aware of what they're doing, was just awarded a huge contract by the Sinopec to produce pipelines and valves and such for large scale coal to liquids research and production. Someone over there must be working on it and I know we're working on it here, too. The problem with nuclear is it isn't good at making liquid fuels.


Nuclear power is the way. The coal in the states pollutes more than nuclear power, and produces less energy, becuase it is rich in uranium. Immidiate future, yes, but that'd just prolong weaning us off of fossil fuels.The other problem with nuclear is that you can't just throw them up. They take a long time to build, at least if you want to be safe, and are very expensive. Coal liquifaction is a mature technology. It's been going on in Australia for a long time and, in fact, is how Germany fueled much of their military during WWII when the allies cut off their oil.

I once read "Mein Kampf" I trust i don't have to name the author, he said:

" A chinese may speak german, and may be born in germany, but still he's a chinese, a foreigner can learn any language but still they're foreign to the country they live if it isn't its own"
Yes, and he was always so right about that kind of thing :rolleyes:

"The Chinese have a whole network of secret facilities that the U.S. government understands but cannot make public," said the official, :confused: So what?

The US Gov has/had multiple Secret Facilities, Secret WMD research, Secret Buildups, Secret Torture "suspects", Secret everything..

Again, I say: It's a given that the west (America) is just as fucked up if not more than what China's trying to become, but that doesn't make it okay for someone else to do it. If anything, China and America and pretty much everyone need to be downsized while things revert back to what they were, economically, a thousand years ago.

Maybe second time around, we'll get it right.

I hear that within a decade or two, India will have more people anyway. Though I wonder, would there still be more Chinese people worldwide?

Indian population is projected to overtake China's within two decades.

Worldwide, there are a good number of Indian diaspora too, especially in SE Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Caribbeans, Fiji, UK etc.

I think China's intentions are pretty clear. And I think in the next decade China is going to be a huge player in global economics, its starting to be right now. I also believe China will become more democratic as its economy grows. Its simple economic growth=more political freedom. Look how much it has changed since the days of total communism, to now with a sort of odd communist system with a few democratic bits throw in.

the article is talking about nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines. SSBNs. a boomer.

china's land-based and mobile intermediate range missiles are suitable for striking carrier groups supporting taiwan.

a boomer only really has one application - global projection. it's a mobile weapons platform. where do you think some of them will be parked? the same place the USSR use to park them... off the eastern and western US seaboards. what are their targets? continential US. cities, heavy industry, military concentration points.

the article is talking about nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines. SSBNs. a boomer.

china's land-based and mobile intermediate range missiles are suitable for striking carrier groups supporting taiwan.

a boomer only really has one application - global projection. it's a mobile weapons platform. where do you think some of them will be parked? the same place the USSR use to park them... off the eastern and western US seaboards. what are their targets? continential US. cities, heavy industry, military concentration points.The US can strike(nuke) anywhere in China..

China wants to have that too.(what did you expect?)

the article is talking about nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines. SSBNs. a boomer.

china's land-based and mobile intermediate range missiles are suitable for striking carrier groups supporting taiwan.

a boomer only really has one application - global projection. it's a mobile weapons platform. where do you think some of them will be parked? the same place the USSR use to park them... off the eastern and western US seaboards. what are their targets? continential US. cities, heavy industry, military concentration points.
True, but I think they're rational enough to only have them as a deterent. I think they see the potential for conflict with the west and they need to have a balancing threat. I think (hope) that if some conflict over energy does materialize that the balance of nuclear power will keep it conventional and minimal.

us cannot launch anywere nuclear weapons are pointless except stopping alien invasion if a country launches a nuke it will have the whole world and its mother bearing down upon in

usa technically can launch anywhere but it would be suicide

unless against aliens in which we would all thank them

The US can strike(nuke) anywhere in China..

of course.

China wants to have that too.(what did you expect?)

yes, that was my point.

Chinese are already hegemonistic.

Invasion and occupation of Tibet. Invasion and occupation of Aksai Chin of Kashmir. Territorial claims on the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. Claims on Taiwan.

They have to prove that they are non-hegemonistic to be trusted with their military upgradations. There is certainly enough history to mistrust their ambitions.

Sure, you could be right. In the East Asian region, China indeed is a hegemony. You can even tell by the name of China written in Chinese: 中國 The Middle Kingdom.

The Tibet you talked about... I wouldn't know much about the historic fact but I can tell for sure that even back in the last dynasty, it has been included in our territory map already, even the Outer Mongolia (nowadays Mongolia).

It would sound weird for me to say this since I'm from Taiwan, but it is a fact that Taiwan has been China's territory since about Ming dynasty until it was taken by Japanese and followed by 55 year of colonization. Some people back in Taiwan hold negative emotions against China, who seemed to have abandoned us, but the truth is that before the colony period, Taiwan was the most advanced province (frist to have railway, telegram, electricity, etc) under the Ching government's rule (not Chin, the first dynasty). You just cannot deny the strong tie between Taiwan and China because after all, we are the same people. For those who have no idea the why the issue of "one China"... Let me tell you Taiwan's official country name: Republic of China. Got it?

They care about money more than territory. Taiwan would be a money sink. What's the point of risking everything for a pathetic little island, when you could wait just as long and buy up property all over the globe? Give them some credit for their intelligence. They have learned from the mistakes of others.

What pathetic island?? Watch it...
Though I can't deny that the just-sprouted democracy in Taiwan is facing a big problem that the politicians are so into their power struggles that has already starting to effect our economy... Already to some people, unification is an option they'd totally go for... So, yeah, we the "pathetic" island has had it and might just reunite with China without even forcing! lol Plus a lot of us are tired of buying lousy, expensive, second-hand weapons from US, who has kept trying to convince us of the threat of China, to "defend" ourselves. (Yeah, right... Scared the hell out of me :P)

Back to the topic...

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty signed on July 1, 1968 at New York already stated that five nation are allowed to own nuclear weapons: France, People's Republic of China, Russia, United Kingdom, and United States.

It seems to me that there's nothing to complain about China owning nuclear weapons... at least

True, but I think they're rational enough to only have them as a deterent. I think they see the potential for conflict with the west and they need to have a balancing threat. I think (hope) that if some conflict over energy does materialize that the balance of nuclear power will keep it conventional and minimal.

I'm guessing that if it comes down to a fight for the last dregs of oil in developing countries China and the US (possibly Europe too) will act like Hitler and Stalin when they invaded Poland, dividing up the territory between them.

Of course that isn't really any consolation to the people in those countries but at least it won't be a nuclear holocaust.

The Tibet you talked about... I wouldn't know much about the historic fact but I can tell for sure that even back in the last dynasty, it has been included in our territory map already, even the Outer Mongolia (nowadays Mongolia).

Depends on what time frame you are gonna take as reference.

During Temujin's time China was included in Mongolia's map. So ?

Tibet has had an independant history with independant sovereign kingdoms as early as 7th century. All Tibetans in exile in Dharamshala and elsewhere aspire for independance and the Chinese block all access for foreigners to Tibetans and I would have to assume that it is an aspiration shared by Tibetans in China as well and that counts more to me than erstwhile maps.


It would sound weird for me to say this since I'm from Taiwan, but it is a fact that Taiwan has been China's territory since about Ming dynasty until it was taken by Japanese and followed by 55 year of colonization. Some people back in Taiwan hold negative emotions against China, who seemed to have abandoned us, but the truth is that before the colony period, Taiwan was the most advanced province (frist to have railway, telegram, electricity, etc) under the Ching government's rule (not Chin, the first dynasty). You just cannot deny the strong tie between Taiwan and China because after all, we are the same people. For those who have no idea the why the issue of "one China"... Let me tell you Taiwan's official country name: Republic of China. Got it?

I agree that reunification has some popularity with Taiwanese. But I doubt if most Taiwanese want reunification under the present PRC dispensations. Hell, if most wanted that, they would have done that.

Oh, noes! China has submarines with nukes on them!

Oh, wait. The US has more, they had them for longer, and they keep building them. The only people who are worried are dickheads in Washington who think they are the only ones responsible enough to wield these weapons.

Depends on what time frame you are gonna take as reference.

During Temujin's time China was included in Mongolia's map. So ?

Tibet has had an independant history with independant sovereign kingdoms as early as 7th century. All Tibetans in exile in Dharamshala and elsewhere aspire for independance and the Chinese block all access for foreigners to Tibetans and I would have to assume that it is an aspiration shared by Tibetans in China as well and that counts more to me than erstwhile maps.

I have no comment on that because I'm not familiar with it as I said before... Although, just FYI, even on Taiwan's current constitution, the territory is still the entire China (Tibet and Mongolia included). lol
I guess this is an issue evetually needs to be solved...

b.t.w. So the so called "Yuan dynasty" of Temujin's on China's history should be "Mongolian Empire" era then... I've actually heard some people saying so... lol

I agree that reunification has some popularity with Taiwanese. But I doubt if most Taiwanese want reunification under the present PRC dispensations. Hell, if most wanted that, they would have done that.

Sorry... forgot to say that to these people who want reunification... the bottom line of course is democracy. That is actually the ultimate goal of the opposition party in Taiwan, the Kuomintang (The Nationalists), which was founded by Dr Sun Yat-sun. Earlier last year the chairman visited China to meet the chairman of Chinese Communist party, by that, it kinda symbolically ended the half-century long conflict between these two parties (the situation of Taiwan and China can pretty much be interpreted as the result of it…). Now led by the new chairman Ma Ying-jeou, the KMT party ultimate goal is reunification and their current attitude is to maintain the status-quo. According to Ma’s point of view, the goal is reunification but he is against the Chinese Communist party, meaning democracy should be the content of reunification. Followed by that, during the end of last year, the KMT party became the majority in the Legislative Yuan. Simply because the people started to show disgust with the current administration’s corruption, scandals and decision making, etc (the DPP party). Talking about the independence movement, DPP party has been the main leader, but even the current president Chen Shui-bian, former chairman of DPP, had stated that independence movement is just not possible. So the option for Taiwan is pretty much left with either status-quo or reunification…

So if you ask me... I would say this is just not yet the right time for reunification and we should keep the status-quo as of the time being… (Wait ‘till Chinese Communist party to collapse? lol)

FYI fact: The budget for weapons purchase from US has been blocked by the KMT party at least 40 times in the Legislative Yuan, although recently KMT is willing to agree on submarine purchase because we are literally operating the oldest submarines that are still in service (commissioned in 1987)... the Zwaardvis MK2 class made by Netherlands...

Sorry... forgot to say that to these people who want reunification... the bottom line of course is democracy.

I agree. That's why I said "I doubt if most Taiwanese want reunification under the present PRC dispensation".

I doubt if PRC can go democratic anytime soon. The present power structure is nice for the fatcats of the CPC. Their leadership has proved to be mad enough (picking up fights with the US and the USSR) and brutally remorseless enough (Tianenmen) AND smart enough (economic liberalisation, state capitalism etc). They won't be giving up power and face the uncertainties of a chaotic democracies.

So the Taiwanese are better off being seperate atleast until the Chi-coms give way to democracy.