NationStates Jolt Archive

Has anyone ever stared up at the night sky and wonder if there is life out there? Has anyone ever wondered what are UFO's? Why would an alien race travel millions if not billions of light year just to see us? Hmmm.

I don't like contemplating the unknown. Besides, no aliens would ever visit us given our being so primitive.

Anyone mentions the Prime Directive will have an unfortunate accident!

i have wondered taht but i have come to the conclution taht if they wanted to make contact with us they eather have a death wish or are really lonly

I wonder if they really do kidnap people and do probes on them. I dunno though, some of the probes sound like some weird homo-erotic fanasty.

I think you should wonder why they wouldn't want to visit us. What is there to do out in space but travel?

I don't like contemplating the unknown. Besides, no aliens would ever visit us given our being so primitive.

Are we, though?

According to an astronomer/researcher my fiancee interviewed, the vast majority of "UFO sightings" are easily explained away, with the most common explanations being Venus, airplanes, satellites, etc.
The airplanes one was neat... people say, "Well, I saw a light in the sky which suddenly disappeared! Musta been a UFO!"
What it more likely was, was an airplane flying towards you, which changed direction so its lights were no longer shining in your direction.
As he said, "People who 'see' these sorts of things EXPECT to see them, and spend a great deal of time 'looking up there' so of course they're going to see something fishy, even if it's completely explainable."

Are we, though?

Yes, compared to a species capable of travelling faster than light.

I am quite convinced that there is life out there; I do wonder, though, if intelligent life can survive very long. Certainly, it doesn't seem like we will.

I do hope extra-terrestrial intelligence exists, however. Maybe they can give us a hand.

According to an astronomer/researcher my fiancee interviewed, the vast majority of "UFO sightings" are easily explained away, with the most common explanations being Venus, airplanes, satellites, etc.
The airplanes one was neat... people say, "Well, I saw a light in the sky which suddenly disappeared! Musta been a UFO!"
What it more likely was, was an airplane flying towards you, which changed direction so its lights were no longer shining in your direction.
As he said, "People who 'see' these sorts of things EXPECT to see them, and spend a great deal of time 'looking up there' so of course they're going to see something fishy, even if it's completely explainable."

Ahh, but airplanes make noise. How do you explain one that doesn't?

Are we, though?

Compared to any space traveling civilization, absolutely.

Besides, they'd see us fighting amongst ourselves on an ununified planet and would sniff in contempt.

Ahh, but airplanes make noise. How do you explain one that doesn't?

I didn't say the plane was that close, did I? :)
Besides, it's entirely possible that there may have been background noises blocking out faint sounds of a big plane high above.

Yes, compared to a species capable of travelling faster than light.

I am quite convinced that there is life out there; I do wonder, though, if intelligent life can survive very long. Certainly, it doesn't seem like we will.

I do hope extra-terrestrial intelligence exists, however. Maybe they can give us a hand.

Well, if such technology is possible, how far off do you suppose we are? I would guess at most a few hundred years. That's a very short time in terms of the universe. I would hardly call us "primitive" in that respect.

There is undoubtedly life out there. Whether any of it is close enough (or determined enough or clever enough to mould the laws of physics to its own purposes) to visit us is another matter.

Also, there are most definitely UFOs. Everything seen in the sky that is not recognised, or identified (to a given level of satisfaction) is a UFO.

I don't believe that there are 'Flying Sourcers', though, merely experimental, 'black-op' or merely badly recognised aircraft (e.g. the XF5U[1], as just one possible example).

[1] Bad example, I suppose, as that apparently never flew, but use F117-A/B2/SR-71/whatever as the example, and there are 'genuine photos of alien craft' that are quite obviously one of these...

Yes, compared to a species capable of travelling faster than light.

I am quite convinced that there is life out there; I do wonder, though, if intelligent life can survive very long. Certainly, it doesn't seem like we will.

I do hope extra-terrestrial intelligence exists, however. Maybe they can give us a hand.

Or maybe they can take a few promising specimens away from the planet and nuke it, putting humanity out of its misery. :P

Personally, I do believe that there is life out there. There's just FAR too many other planets out there for there not to be other life.
UFO's around Earth... eh. I'll believe it when I see absolute proof.

Albert Enstein says that it is impossible for mankind to reach the speed of light. So would that mean that these aliens are finding wormholes to go through?

There is a group that claims to be five years or less away from the first tests of a new theory that could provide faster than light travel for innanimate objects around twenty or thirty years after tested, if the test are successful. They're being very cautious with it too, its not like the crazies who claim the the government has been testing this stuff in area fifty one for years and they've uncovered the secrets. These guys might actually do it.

All of my Astrologist friends are of the opinion that given the relative age of the universe when contrasted with the relative age of the Earth, any alien intelligence is probably about as advanced as we are, if not much less. The only variable (gievn the currently accepted model of the universe) is global extinction events caused by asteroid strikes and what not. But from my understanding, its fairly likely that any given alien planet has had about the same luck as we have.

Albert Enstein says that it is impossible for mankind to reach the speed of light. So would that mean that these aliens are finding wormholes to go through?

Or traveling through time, or somehow interacting with other dimensions to shorten the distance, or doing something so strange we can't imagine it right now.

That's a very short time in terms of the universe. I would hardly call us "primitive" in that respect.

But they would see us as primitive. A few hundred years, at the rate of scientific achievement they will probably be at, would make a huge difference.

Albert Enstein says that it is impossible for mankind to reach the speed of light. So would that mean that these aliens are finding wormholes to go through?

Who says Einstein is correct? Scientists always say something is impossible when they don't really know the answer.

AGAIN with the deja/treja vu!!!

I've seen two things that could be officially qualified as UFOs. Both times were with witnesses, at least 2 of them credible.
The first one looked a lot like the Lubbock Lights (and the German lights)
The second one was considerably different and more like the image they had at the beginning of Duane Barry from The X-Files.
TG/reply me if anyone's interested.

There is a group that claims to be five years or less away from the first tests of a new theory that could provide faster than light travel for innanimate objects around twenty or thirty years after tested, if the test are successful.

How would they go about doing it?

There is a group that claims to be five years or less away from the first tests of a new theory that could provide faster than light travel for innanimate objects around twenty or thirty years after tested, if the test are successful. They're being very cautious with it too, its not like the crazies who claim the the government has been testing this stuff in area fifty one for years and they've uncovered the secrets. These guys might actually do it.

All of my Astrologist friends are of the opinion that given the relative age of the universe when contrasted with the relative age of the Earth, any alien intelligence is probably about as advanced as we are, if not much less. The only variable (gievn the currently accepted model of the universe) is global extinction events caused by asteroid strikes and what not. But from my understanding, its fairly likely that any given alien planet has had about the same luck as we have.

Take into account how many millions of life-giving planets there could be, and odds are some of them didn't have the same luck we had... some may have had all life wiped out, and some may never have experienced world-wide destruction.
I wonder what dinosaurs would be like if they hadn't been extinct, and had lived on until this very day...? Or any other species living at that time, for that matter.

I am supremely confident that there is other intelligent life in our universe; however I do not believe in UFOs, or at the very least the traditional idea of humanoid aliens coming to Earth in flying saucers and similar things (otherwise I'm uncertain and leaning towards disbelief). What always surprises me when people talk about extraterrestrial life are all of the assumptions that are made ignoring the fact that life on another planet would evolve from life adapted to an enviornment completely different from ours and would likely follow completely different paths. I think the idea of humanoid aliens can be ruled out. Since their brains would have evolved in ways completely different from ours there is no reason to assume that they'd follow technological paths anything like ours; different human cultures didn't even follow the same paths.

Compared to any space traveling civilization, absolutely.

Besides, they'd see us fighting amongst ourselves on an ununified planet and would sniff in contempt.

What makes you assume that their planet would be unified? What makes you assume that they'd have a civilization that would even be comprehensible by our standards (or ours by theirs)? What makes you assume that they are capable of feeling contempt?

There's also human nature to think about. Also, we're sitting pretty comfortable with our sun still having a couple hundred million years left, if there was an alien race facing the possibilty of a star about to go super nova in a couple hundred years, I'm sure that would be incentive to get away fast.

Edit: Here's an idea. Maybe the aliens have evolved to need something like helium to breath (Do they even breath?)? If you were an alien race, and you saw a planet like Earth with so much oxygen in the air, would you want to get close? We're drilling at rocks on Mars and they could be the local warlord for all we know.

What makes you assume that their planet would be unified? What makes you assume that they'd have a civilization that would even be comprehensible by our standards (or ours by theirs)? What makes you assume that they are capable of feeling contempt?

That their planet would be unified is an assumption to be made given their advancement and the vast resources that would be neccessary to construct interstellar ships.

Aliens would certainly think differently from us but they'd have to have emotions. Unless you're thinking of an AI civilization?

so whos to say there wansnt life their? just like it was here?

That their planet would be unified is an assumption to be made given their advancement and the vast resources that would be neccessary to construct interstellar ships.

Aliens would certainly think differently from us but they'd have to have emotions. Unless you're thinking of an AI civilization?

There are schools of thought that believe AI is OUR next step in evolution. That humanity isn't destined to go on much longer, and our creations will be what carry the flame of human ingenuity across the stars.
So it's possible there are other AI civilizations out there. That would be interesting.

There is a group that claims to be five years or less away from the first tests of a new theory that could provide faster than light travel for innanimate objects around twenty or thirty years after tested, if the test are successful. They're being very cautious with it too, its not like the crazies who claim the the government has been testing this stuff in area fifty one for years and they've uncovered the secrets. These guys might actually do it.

All of my Astrologist friends are of the opinion that given the relative age of the universe when contrasted with the relative age of the Earth, any alien intelligence is probably about as advanced as we are, if not much less. The only variable (gievn the currently accepted model of the universe) is global extinction events caused by asteroid strikes and what not. But from my understanding, its fairly likely that any given alien planet has had about the same luck as we have.

There are more factors than that. Let's say that AlienRace(A) is on adverage = in intelligence to humanity. Then let's place them on a planet w/out uranium or plutonium: no nukes ergo war w/ no nuclear holocaust. Now lets put them in a socio-econimic situation where they experience intermitant WWII style global warfare that stops only long enough for rebuilding. Because war breeds advancement they could have advaced much faster in a much shorter timeframe than humanity.
On the flip side, perhaps their planet gave life to larger and more effective preditors than the Earth and their species bearly hung on against extinction for millenia thus severly pushing back the date of the formation of their civilization due to the extreme difficulty of survival.

All of my Astrologist friends are of the opinion that given the relative age of the universe when contrasted with the relative age of the Earth, any alien intelligence is probably about as advanced as we are, if not much less. The only variable (gievn the currently accepted model of the universe) is global extinction events caused by asteroid strikes and what not. But from my understanding, its fairly likely that any given alien planet has had about the same luck as we have.

It is not as if evolution is progressive; we are random branch that happened to be extremely intelligent and concious (I believe that conciousness arose to facilitate communication). There is no reason to believe that intelligence didn't develop much sooner on another planet (and no reason to believe the reverse either). Technological advancement is a seperate issue since it is determined by the intelligence of the aliens in relation to us (if their intelligence can even be measure by the same means as ours), their lifespan (it would affect the rate of progression of technology but in no predictable fashion), their culture and ideology (a factor that cannot be overestimated), their physical abilities and enviornment (determines how large of an incentive they would have to develop technology).

That their planet would be unified is an assumption to be made given their advancement and the vast resources that would be neccessary to construct interstellar ships.

Aliens would certainly think differently from us but they'd have to have emotions. Unless you're thinking of an AI civilization?

An AI civilization opens another set of questions that I don't want to have to deal with. But it is not necessarily true that they would have emotions; vertebrates evolved the ability to have emotions on Earth since it aids with memory (you connect certain things with pleasure others with pain at the basic level, with humans it is obviously far more complicated), it is possible that life on another planet could have evolved a different means to aid memory; and even if they have emotions it is extremely unlikely that they'd have the same ones as humans, especially something that seems to be as incidental as contempt.

An AI civilization opens another set of questions that I don't want to have to deal with. But it is not necessarily true that they would have emotions; vertebrates evolved the ability to have emotions on Earth since it aids with memory (you connect certain things with pleasure others with pain at the basic level, with humans it is obviously far more complicated), it is possible that life on another planet could have evolved a different means to aid memory; and even if they have emotions it is extremely unlikely that they'd have the same ones as humans, especially something that seems to be as incidental as contempt.

Interestingly, there are basic emotions which are recognizable from birth, across all cultures of humanity, without training. That isn't to say that aliens would share such emotions, but it's just an interesting little bit of food for thought.

I think that there is other life out there, and they've proven their intelligence by NOT showing up here. ;)

All kidding aside, yeah, there is a good chance that there is life out there. There isn't so good a chance that we'll ever meet it though. The distances are far too great without someway os sidestepping and a species advanced enough to do that would probably not be too interested in us.

To assume they would be anything like us is... well, wrong. There's no standard that we can see. Look at the wide range of life on this planet alone, much of which we refuse to denote intelligence or emotions to. I think any alien life forms would probably look at us as we look at dolphins or other animals, smart, but not reasoning.

Or, the flip side, we may look at the aliens the same way.

It'd be nice if we lived in a galaxy like Star Wars or Star Trek, but...

Interestingly, there are basic emotions which are recognizable from birth, across all cultures of humanity, without training. That isn't to say that aliens would share such emotions, but it's just an interesting little bit of food for thought.
Same species though. Try identifying emotions in a cat, and do so in a way to really identify them and not project what you think they're feeling.

An AI civilization opens another set of questions that I don't want to have to deal with. But it is not necessarily true that they would have emotions; vertebrates evolved the ability to have emotions on Earth since it aids with memory (you connect certain things with pleasure others with pain at the basic level, with humans it is obviously far more complicated), it is possible that life on another planet could have evolved a different means to aid memory; and even if they have emotions it is extremely unlikely that they'd have the same ones as humans, especially something that seems to be as incidental as contempt.

Well how about distaste, or seeing us as an irrelevance? On a cold-thinking level they could see humans as beneath their notice so maybe they would just wipe us out seeing what a danger we pose (just looking at our history should show them that).

Well how about distaste, or seeing us as an irrelevance? On a cold-thinking level they could see humans as beneath their notice so maybe they would just wipe us out seeing what a danger we pose (just looking at our history should show them that).
If they were capable of travel between the stars, we would hardly be a danger to them. Nor do we wipe out ants after seeing them battle for the nest.

Interestingly, there are basic emotions which are recognizable from birth, across all cultures of humanity, without training. That isn't to say that aliens would share such emotions, but it's just an interesting little bit of food for thought.

Of course the same emotions are experienced since birth in every culture; we all have brains "wired" the same way and thus the same emotions. But this is irrelevent in regard to beings with different brains.

Just one thing to drop into the mix, though... Von Neumann machines...

If they were capable of travel between the stars, we would hardly be a danger to them. Nor do we wipe out ants after seeing them battle for the nest.

Hey if they had a certain kind of logic they would be able to see that humans (if we don't destroy ourselves first) have great potential since we ARE so intelligent. Unfortunately we are also easy to anger and to war so in a cold way if they wanted to stop a threat before it developed...

Or do they have brains at all? It's more than likely, that if any type of advanced civilisation existed 'out there' at all, that they would have evolved [would they have evolved?] in a way that wouldn't be recognisable or describ-able by our standards and way of thinking.

Can't remember the details, but there are instances of 'bacteria-like' organisms being found on meteorites fallen to Earth. [Assuming no contamination of course] This is the kind of 'life' that I think is more likely to be found out there.

Or do they have brains at all? It's more than likely, that if any type of advanced civilisation existed 'out there' at all, that they would have evolved [would they have evolved?] in a way that wouldn't be recognisable or describ-able by our standards and way of thinking.

Can't remember the details, but there are instances of 'bacteria-like' organisms being found on meteorites fallen to Earth. [Assuming no contamination of course] This is the kind of 'life' that I think is more likely to be found out there.

They certainly would have evolved. I agree that it is likely that any sort of civilization that they'd have would be unrecognizable to us. In regards to the "bacteria" on asteroids; that type of life would definitely be far more common throughout the universe than intelligent life but obviously does not preclude the existence of intelligent life.

But they would see us as primitive. A few hundred years, at the rate of scientific achievement they will probably be at, would make a huge difference.

Maybe. Or maybe, if extraterrestrial life exists, races that reach an atomic-era level of development are nearly unheard of.

If the universe is endless, as some theories go, then there's an endless number of intelligent species out there. Even if it has an end, it's still pretty huge and it's possible there's even intelligent life in our own galaxy(Besides our own). But we will never see it. I doubt there will ever be interaction between two alien species, since the odds are so fantastically small. It's a sad thought. All this lonely life never being able to see other life, always forced to wonder...

Some things to think about:
Everyone seems to assume (myself as well to some extent) that the intelligent life would live on the surface of a planet like we do; but wouldn't it be at least as plausible for them to be aquatic? Or perhaps subterrainean?

And why machinery and metals? Why not bio-technology or something less understanable by us?

Or (this is somewhat far-fetched and in any case would never possibly concern us) life that naturally existed in deep space and drifted from planet to planet (or just drifted) without space ships?

...what are you all talking about. By sheer mathmatical probability we most likely would not be able to use any type of technology an alien species might invent. Imagine beings that live in temperatures below anything on earth that "breathe" methane. They reproduce with eachother by shooting a jagged spore into the body of another of their species which steals some genetic material and then explodes, killing the creature, and bursting forth a hundred more creatures. All their technology is based off highly charged radioactive substances since they live in world that is naturally highly radioactive. The controls of these devices are manipulated through a special magnetic wave that the creatures can radiate with an extreme level of accuracy.

They would not be much good to us except as a curiosity. Perhaps they live in relative darkness and have no light sensors and instead function on energy and magnetism and thus cannot communicate. The probability of them being even remotely like us is very minute.

Hey if they had a certain kind of logic they would be able to see that humans (if we don't destroy ourselves first) have great potential since we ARE so intelligent. Unfortunately we are also easy to anger and to war so in a cold way if they wanted to stop a threat before it developed...
That assumes that they would use logic the way we do, which isn't always the case between different nationalities, let alone species. It also assumes that they view intelligence the same way we do to note that we are intelligent (which I'm still not too sure of). We know, for example, that chimpanze's, our closest relatives, are tool using, along with a number of birds, but we do not reconize that they are intelligent. Dolphins and whales seem to be extreamly intelligent, perhaps even communicating (though we cannot tell for sure), but we do not reconize them as advanced intelligence.

I suspect that, like humanity itself, any aliens would probably be rather blind to the notion that anything not like itself could be fully intelligent.

Some things to think about:
Everyone seems to assume (myself as well to some extent) that the intelligent life would live on the surface of a planet like we do; but wouldn't it be at least as plausible for them to be aquatic? Or perhaps subterrainean?

And why machinery and metals? Why not bio-technology or something less understanable by us?

Or (this is somewhat far-fetched and in any case would never possibly concern us) life that naturally existed in deep space and drifted from planet to planet (or just drifted) without space ships?

Anything would be possible. Of course everytime I try to think of different possibilities I keep thinking of Star Wars. Either it has accurate possibilities or its full of crap and has ruined my imagination. I'd like to think it's the former of course. ;)

I woudl suspect that, like humanity itself, any aliens would probably be rather blind to the notion that anything not like itself could be fully intelligent.

Humans though have the basics of civilization easy to see, culture, theology, science, government. I don't know what standards any alien civilization would use but they would be able to tell that we were the intelligent dominant lifeform on this planet.

They would not be much good to us except as a curiosity. Perhaps they live in relative darkness and have no light sensors and instead function on energy and magnetism and thus cannot communicate. The probability of them being even remotely like us is very minute.
Hell, they might not even be carbon based. Silicon can form complex chains like carbon so it is possible that life may have come into being that is closer to Earth's rocks than Earth's animals.

Humans though have the basics of civilization easy to see, culture, theology, science, government. I don't know what standards any alien civilization would use but they would be able to tell that we were the intelligent dominant lifeform on this planet.
Really? Look at termites, they have ranking systems and build things. There's lots of animals that have a goverment of sorts (Alphas and the like). Science is tool making and there's a number of animals that use them as well. Theology is harder, for one we would need to understand each other's language to communicate that, or else how do we tell them?

I mean, I can look at a pack of wolves and observe the same motions that humans do, even (possibly) theology with howling at the moon. If I knew nothing of life on Earth, would I really see it as intelligence or would I assume that the dominate species has some really funky natural habits, but are not intelligent the way we are. I mean, they haven't even discovered slood yet. ;)

I mean, they haven't even discovered slod yet. ;)ITYM "slood"....


(Sorry, I'm a rabid fan...)

Really? Look at termites, they have ranking systems and build things. There's lots of animals that have a goverment of sorts (Alphas and the like). Science is tool making and there's a number of animals that use them as well. Theology is harder, for one we would need to understand each other's language to communicate that, or else how do we tell them?

I mean, I can look at a pack of wolves and observe the same motions that humans do, even (possibly) theology with howling at the moon. If I knew nothing of life on Earth, would I really see it as intelligence or would I assume that the dominate species has some really funky natural habits, but are not intelligent the way we are. I mean, they haven't even discovered slod yet. ;)

The only technology that I can think of that seems like almost entirely indicative of our intelligence (almost because there would still likely be some life out there that wouldn't be able to realize it for intelligence) is nuclear weapons. It would be pretty hard to misinterpret the ability to turn cities into craters for anything other than high technology.

ITYM "slood"....


(Sorry, I'm a rabid fan...)
Oh dear, thanks for pointing that out. It's fixed. :)

Really? Look at termites, they have ranking systems and build things. There's lots of animals that have a goverment of sorts (Alphas and the like). Science is tool making and there's a number of animals that use them as well. Theology is harder, for one we would need to understand each other's language to communicate that, or else how do we tell them?

Are we trying to nitpick here? Confuse humans with termites in intelligence? I suppose other lifeforms have our technology? Taking a stick to dig out insects isn't the same as power plants and automobiles. I would think (I hope) that any off world civs would not get confused.

The only technology that I can think of that seems like almost entirely indicative of our intelligence (almost because there would still likely be some life out there that wouldn't be able to realize it for intelligence) is nuclear weapons. It would be pretty hard to misinterpret the ability to turn cities into craters for anything other than high technology.
Maybe. Depends on how they would view that. I mean, in wars between chimp tribes, one will totally erradicate the other.

Again, so much depends on how they would view our actions.

And on the flip side, we'll be in the same boat.

I'm reminded of a Douglas Adams quote regarding dolphins, how humans thought they were the dominate species because dolphins did nothing but swim all day, eat fish, and were happy. The dolphins thought they were the dominate species for the same reasons. ;)

intelligent life - yea.
ufo's (as in lgm's and cow abductions) - boo.

The universe is a pretty big place. Our solar system has only been around for about 1/2 of the time that the universe existed. In that time, intelligent life has developed. Our sun is one of a few hundred billion in our galaxy, which is one of ~80 billion in the universe. Mathematically, it seems inconceivable that there would only be one planet that developes intelligent life. I believe wholeheartedly that there are intelligent ET's out there, but the massive distances between stars makes interstellar travel exponentially less likely.

I'm suprised nobody mentioned the Drake equation yet.

http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious/Topics/SETI/drake_equation.html

Maybe. Depends on how they would view that. I mean, in wars between chimp tribes, one will totally erradicate the other.

Again, so much depends on how they would view our actions.

And on the flip side, we'll be in the same boat.

I'm reminded of a Douglas Adams quote regarding dolphins, how humans thought they were the dominate species because dolphins did nothing but swim all day, eat fish, and were happy. The dolphins thought they were the dominate species for the same reasons. ;)

Chimps totally eradicate each other, but they don't do so by dropping an item that leads to the leveling of miles of rainforest; that alone is what measures our power and indicates our technology.

Are we trying to nitpick here? Confuse humans with termites in intelligence? I suppose other lifeforms have our technology? Taking a stick to dig out insects isn't the same as power plants and automobiles. I would think (I hope) that any off world civs would not get confused.
The point being is that you're approching this as a human who is familar with life on this planet. You know this is civilization because you're a part of it. I'm trying to point out that because of this, you are making assumptions that an alien race would view mankind's achivements the same way we do. You cannot make that assumption however.

We see the differences between use and termites because we're we. But can you see the differences between a termite and say, an ant? Unless you studied them and learned about them, how would you know?

Noam Chompsky (sp?) once noted that if aliens ever came, they may mistake all human language as being one language, if they counted it a language at all. He noted that dogs have far more variation than we humans do, and yet we all think they speak the same "language".

If you look at it that way, the idea that aliens would be able to disconsern our intelligence at a glance and welcome us, or destroy us, is very, very small. They may not reconize we HAVE intelligence until they study us. And we may not reconize the same.

Has anyone ever stared up at the night sky and wonder if there is life out there? Has anyone ever wondered what are UFO's? Why would an alien race travel millions if not billions of light year just to see us? Hmmm.
Yep. The laws of nature say there must be life out there.
I've seen a UFO once.

Maybe we are like that indian island.

Chimps totally eradicate each other, but they don't do so by dropping an item that leads to the leveling of miles of rainforest; that alone is what measures our power and indicates our technology.
Maybe, WE think it's impressive, but there is no counting that aliens might. They might assume this is a natural function.

I'm suprised nobody mentioned the Drake equation yet.

http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious/Topics/SETI/drake_equation.html

Because every number attached to a variable except in relation to N* and fp is entirely arbitrary.

According to an astronomer/researcher my fiancee interviewed, the vast majority of "UFO sightings" are easily explained away, with the most common explanations being Venus, airplanes, satellites, etc.
The airplanes one was neat... people say, "Well, I saw a light in the sky which suddenly disappeared! Musta been a UFO!"
What it more likely was, was an airplane flying towards you, which changed direction so its lights were no longer shining in your direction.
As he said, "People who 'see' these sorts of things EXPECT to see them, and spend a great deal of time 'looking up there' so of course they're going to see something fishy, even if it's completely explainable."
Another explanation is that they are demons pretending to be UFO's. Prayer scares them off.

Compared to any space traveling civilization, absolutely.

Besides, they'd see us fighting amongst ourselves on an ununified planet and would sniff in contempt.
Any technologically capable civilisation must develop on a politically divided planet. You don't get much techno progress unless you have competition.

Maybe, WE think it's impressive, but there is no counting that aliens might. They might assume this is a natural function.

As I said initially, there is likely some alien species out there that might overlook, but I'd wager that most of them would recognize that as indicative of intelligence.

http://hubblesite.org/newscenter/newsdesk/archive/releases/2004/07/image/a+warn

After looking at the following image ... it would be bold to think we were the only form of life anywhere ever.

As I said initially, there is likely some alien species out there that might overlook, but I'd wager that most of them would recognize that as indicative of intelligence.

I read somewhere once in a book that any alien species we're likely to meet will be similar to bacteria; How would we deal with that, if we found "otherworldly" prokaryotic species?

As I said initially, there is likely some alien species out there that might overlook, but I'd wager that most of them would recognize that as indicative of intelligence.
Perhaps, but that is making an assumption that I cannot be comfortable with, given the range of planets out there.

Sadly, I think we're stuck debating what might be till we meet, if we ever do, an alien species.

I'll believe it when I see absolute proof.
Then it is knowing, not believing.



Just nitpicking...

The point being is that you're approching this as a human who is familar with life on this planet. You know this is civilization because you're a part of it. I'm trying to point out that because of this, you are making assumptions that an alien race would view mankind's achivements the same way we do. You cannot make that assumption however.

The way I see it is that even if the aliens see things so differently then we do I think that are cities made from materials that are obviously manufactured and our space hardware. If they were friendly or even if not they would be able to pick up on our electronic chatter, radio transmitions. This kind of technology could still be confused as being made by a species without intellect?

I read somewhere once in a book that any alien species we're likely to meet will be similar to bacteria; How would we deal with that, if we found "otherworldly" prokaryotic species?

How would we deal with it? Would even need to? Their needs and biology might not be compatiable enough with our biology to be able to live in us or hurt us; but if they can we might be able devise a cure of some sort. If not probably the best bet would be to kill everyone who was infected, destroy their bodies, and kill everyone who was nearby to make sure nothing spreads. Otherwise we'd probably die I assume.

The point being is that you're approching this as a human who is familar with life on this planet. You know this is civilization because you're a part of it. I'm trying to point out that because of this, you are making assumptions that an alien race would view mankind's achivements the same way we do. You cannot make that assumption however.


I think you can assume however that any aliens we come into contact with would be from a high technology civilization though, so they would share some comonalities with us: Engineering, physical science, and the rest. And the laws of physics don't change.

It would also be virtually inevitable that they would have knowledge of history, as how else could they pass down and develop the science needed to aquire their technology.

With those two things, I find it extremely unlikely that they wouldn't be able to compare us to their own past and recognize us as at least a 'proto' civilization. (Much as we could recognize proto-humanity in homo-ergaster, even though it lacked - from our standpoint - certain key features of humanity, i.e. language aquisition.). Even if our physiology was radically different.

The way I see it is that even if the aliens see things so differently then we do I think that are cities made from materials that are obviously manufactured and our space hardware. If they were friendly or even if not they would be able to pick up on our electronic chatter, radio transmitions. This kind of technology could still be confused as being made by a species without intellect?

Satelites would probably be good indication of our intelligence. But the materials we made our cities out of are not obviously manufactured. We mine resources from the Earth and recombine them into other materials to build structures, that's not particularly different from termites. For electronic chatter and radio transmissions, it cannot be assumed that they have any technology like that themselves so they might not even pick up on it; on the other hand, they might naturally communicate through electric transmissions (wouldn't be that different from electric eels) or radio transmissions which could lead them to some interesting conclusions.

I'm reminded of a Douglas Adams quote regarding dolphins, how humans thought they were the dominate species because dolphins did nothing but swim all day, eat fish, and were happy. The dolphins thought they were the dominate species for the same reasons. ;)
But we can go fishing dolphins... We can wipe their whole species out. I hope we'll never do - but it is up to us, humans, and they have no influence on that. Thus we rule, they submit.

I think you can assume however that any aliens we come into contact with would be from a high technology civilization though, so they would share some comonalities with us: Engineering, physical science, and the rest. And the laws of physics don't change.

It would also be virtually inevitable that they would have knowledge of history, as how else could they pass down and develop the science needed to aquire their technology.

With those two things, I find it extremely unlikely that they wouldn't be able to compare us to their own past and recognize us as at least a 'proto' civilization. (Much as we could recognize proto-humanity in homo-ergaster, even though it lacked - from our standpoint - certain key features of humanity, i.e. language aquisition.). Even if our physiology was radically different.

They would certainly have knowledge of their history and of the laws of physics (though they would likely conceptualize it in ways completely different from us); but otherwise their technology and development could (and likely would) be completely different from ours. Proto-civilization suggests that ours would be similar to theirs in the past; but we have no reason to assume that. We can recognize the proto-humanity of homo-ergaster because of their physica similarities to us; these would be beings nothing like us.

Satelites would probably be good indication of our intelligence. But the materials we made our cities out of are not obviously manufactured. We mine resources from the Earth and recombine them into other materials to build structures, that's not particularly different from termites. For electronic chatter and radio transmissions, it cannot be assumed that they have any technology like that themselves so they might not even pick up on it; on the other hand, they might naturally communicate through electric transmissions (wouldn't be that different from electric eels) or radio transmissions which could lead them to some interesting conclusions.

I suppose these are possibilities but there is still no possible way that anyone would not be able to tell that we are intelligent. Hell, space infanstructure, good sign. All those twinkling lights you see? Electricity! Perhaps they will also be able to tell from the pollution in the atmosphere that we have industry. Perhaps even these can be explained away in some outlandish scenario but again, human: dominant lifeform on planet.

I suppose these are possibilities but there is still no possible way that anyone would not be able to tell that we are intelligent. Hell, space infanstructure, good sign. All those twinkling lights you see? Electricity! Perhaps they will also be able to tell from the pollution in the atmosphere that we have industry. Perhaps even these can be explained away in some outlandish scenario but again, human: dominant lifeform on planet.

Space technology is definitely a good sign. Otherwise not really; there were dominant lifeforms on Earth long before the advent of intelligence. There would be no way an alien race would be able to tell what chemicals in our atmosphere are natural and which are from pollution (especially since they are generally the same chemicals anyways); twinkling lights, there's life with phosphorescent properties.

In my mind, with the infinite amount of planets, I have no doubt that there are some sort of aliens.

But not superior to us.

If they managed intergalatic travel, there evolution must of decided that they were making tools instead of growing fur ever since they were existing. This would them extreamly physically weak. ever that, or they will follow the usual path, and evole in physical ways more than mental.

Oh, and UFOs are a load of rubbish. It's unlikely that we could guess the exact type of ship they would be using.

And they probably wouldn't have anything in common with us. I'd doubt that they wouldn't even be bipedial.

Sorry little grey/green men, you lot are sacked.

Don't get me started on psychic powers...

Space technology is definitely a good sign. Otherwise not really; there were dominant lifeforms on Earth long before the advent of intelligence. There would be no way an alien race would be able to tell what chemicals in our atmosphere are natural and which are from pollution (especially since they are generally the same chemicals anyways); twinkling lights, there's life with phosphorescent properties.

You don't think they would at least be able to recognize the signs of their own development? Even if their history was profoundly different if they use mechanical technology they would have to see that we are slowly learning ourselves.

This whole debate is simply assuming that they never come in for a closer look right? Fly over any metropolis and I'd have a hard time believing that there would be any mistake as to what level humanity is intellectually.

They would certainly have knowledge of their history and of the laws of physics (though they would likely conceptualize it in ways completely different from us); but otherwise their technology and development could (and likely would) be completely different from ours. Proto-civilization suggests that ours would be similar to theirs in the past; but we have no reason to assume that. We can recognize the proto-humanity of homo-ergaster because of their physica similarities to us; these would be beings nothing like us.

My point about ergaster is though, that we group it on the proto-human side, not particularly because of its physical characteristics, but because of the archeological evidence. Otherwise it could be just another homonid.

And if, indeed, we found a non-hominid species that exhibited the same behaviours. I am almost certian it would be classed as 'pre' or 'near' sentient, regardless of physiology. (Those are pack-hunting, specialized tool use, complex social ordering, burial rituals). It's probably why we feel so uncomfortable about keeping great apes and elephants in zoos.

And I would imagine that they would see - as a space faring society - similarities to their own past in terms of engineering projects, even if the exact solutions were not the same. Things like artificial satallites, and space probes, controlled nuclear fusion would all be recognizable to them, even if not very advanced. To imagine that they did not share at least some of these features with us, indicates that pretty much our entire science to this point is fundamentally flawed - i.e. we have missed something basic and obvious. Given that, we are probably not really civilized anyway, so it's no big deal.

What makes you assume that they are capable of feeling contempt?
(Not being too argumentative, just so you know)
I had a thought when seeing this ... contempt may be a natural response to failings in social order in a socially-minded species, to cadence. Not specifically to human intelligence as creatures commonly thought to be less intelligent also endorse that trait. To be fair, if you take a sample of the current U.S. populace you'll find a lot of qualifying arguments.
It is likely to be argued that a civilization is going to require a significant amount of cooperation to acquire interplanetary travel, so you can see where i'm going with this.

Yep. The laws of nature say there must be life out there.
I've seen a UFO once.
...anecdote?

Don't get me started on psychic powers...
Uhm, feel free to either rant or, more appropriately, start your own thread about it!

I still do not believe that it is highly likely that an alien race could just wander by the earth and ID us as intelligent. After study, yes, but at first glance?

But let's play pretend that an alien could see us and understand, what would they want with us in the first place?
And the first one to type 'Mars Needs Women' gets bomped.
The closest star is Proxima Centari, it's a shade over 4 light-years away. Now, I have not heard of any planets being discovered there, but let's say there is one and it harbors life.

Still, even at light speed, the journey would take over 4 years. Any sort of interstellar travel would require some sort of sidestep technology to make it worthwhile. But, let's say they also are bound by physics and cannot go faster than light. It still would take infinite amounts of energy to get to c in the first place. The technology needed would be so far above us, it would be akin to dropping a nuclear carrier back when stones were high-tech.

And they would need a way to get a ship to Sol and back again. That's 9 years round trip. The ability of the ship's life support is staggering; artificial gravity, the ability to replenish air, the ability to grow and maintain food, waste disposal. A sub can stay underwater for a long time, but not 9 years. Again, the technology would far surpass anything we have.

Alright, since that's a bit much... let's say wormholes, get us to Sol quicker. Assuming they exist, what's the odds of one pointed from where they are to where we are? Could they somehow generate wormholes then? The ability to do that would be incredible. Tear at the very fabric of space/time? Scientists cannot even begin to dream of doing that.

You get to the point where the technological achievements of these aliens would invoke Clarke's law (any technology sufficiently advanced enough becomes indistinguishable from magic).

It would be the case of something like the USS Enterprise (the carrier, not the starship) somehow being dropped with all stores and full ship's complement into the stone age. What would her crew have to say to them, COULD they say anything to them that the primitives would understand? Could they even talk?

The crew of Enterprise may understand that the hairy apes are indeed intelligent, after a fashion, but nothing approaching their own.

We have a long ways to go yet if such advanced species thrive in the galaxy.

If they managed intergalatic travel, there evolution must of decided that they were making tools instead of growing fur ever since they were existing. This would them extreamly physically weak. ever that, or they will follow the usual path, and evole in physical ways more than mental.The universe was quite old by the time our system came around... Even considering that several nebulae-to-nova cycles would have been required to have created the mix of elements capable of creating a world such as ours, it's not inconceivable that a planatary system could have had half a billion years or more head start on us. And who knows if we're within a million, a thousand, even a hundred years of finding (and completing) the interestellar (or intergalactic) travel required to visit neighbours who are still yet further behind our owwn stage of development, so 'they' could already have been and gone... long before any decent progress towards civilisation (even humanity, even mammality, perhaps even multi-cellularism) had occured on Earth.

(And, yes, maybe they did leave black monoliths in the African savanna, in the moon's regolith and in orbit around one or other of the two largest gas-giants to initiate and then monitor our progress... ;))

But here and now? Best bet for that is if they set up transponders in the local neighbourhood (within a few tens of light-years) that picked up our radio waves, classified it as intelligently-created and signalled (by the much-more efficient trans-lightspeed communication methods) to themselves back home so that they'd send their FTL ships to have a look at us. And I'm not going to put money on that... ;)

...anecdote?
???

You don't think they would at least be able to recognize the signs of their own development? Even if their history was profoundly different if they use mechanical technology they would have to see that we are slowly learning ourselves.

This whole debate is simply assuming that they never come in for a closer look right? Fly over any metropolis and I'd have a hard time believing that there would be any mistake as to what level humanity is intellectually.

If they simply flew over a metropolis they could still have doubts; but if they took the time to study us they would realize we are intelligent, with one possible exception: we don't really consider the australopithicus or homo habilis intelligent (in relation to us that is) since we have surpassed their intelligence to such a great extent, if the alien species in question was one who far surpassed our conception of intelligence the fact that we aren't any where near as intelligent as them and not heading in the same direction as them might cause them to classify us as merely clever and cunning as opposed to their equivalent of "rational."

???
...example...?
What happened?

My point about ergaster is though, that we group it on the proto-human side, not particularly because of its physical characteristics, but because of the archeological evidence. Otherwise it could be just another homonid.

And if, indeed, we found a non-hominid species that exhibited the same behaviours. I am almost certian it would be classed as 'pre' or 'near' sentient, regardless of physiology. (Those are pack-hunting, specialized tool use, complex social ordering, burial rituals). It's probably why we feel so uncomfortable about keeping great apes and elephants in zoos.

And I would imagine that they would see - as a space faring society - similarities to their own past in terms of engineering projects, even if the exact solutions were not the same. Things like artificial satallites, and space probes, controlled nuclear fusion would all be recognizable to them, even if not very advanced. To imagine that they did not share at least some of these features with us, indicates that pretty much our entire science to this point is fundamentally flawed - i.e. we have missed something basic and obvious. Given that, we are probably not really civilized anyway, so it's no big deal.

The similarities in behavior between a human and gorilla (we branched away from each other only something like ten million years ago) would likely be far greater than the similarities between humans and an alien race (a completely different evolutionary "tree"); many of the examples you gave can not be projected with any certainty onto an alien race. Pack-hunting (the aliens could be herbivores, eat plankton, or derive sustenance in a way completely different that lead to different early modes of socialization), specialized tool use (yes this would be an indicator), complex social ordering (a trait shared by many unintelligent lifeforms and not necessarily shared by an alien race), burial rituals (this can in no way be an indicator, I find it somewhat doubtful any other species would do something so pointless). For science, our understanding of "objective" reality is not truly objective but rather is filtered in through perceptual lens into a form that our minds are able to make sense of; the perceptual lens and the form of knowledge that an alien race would be able to process would likely be much different. So science isn't flawed, but its form is the result of the corner we look at the universe from; the universe would look differently from a different corner and the resulting sciences would be different. But our tools likely would share basic similarities with those of at least most alien species.

[bump]

Hate to do it, but aliens are fun to talk about.

The way I view it, there's definitely intelligent life out there. The problem is, if it's advanced enough to travel fast enough to visit Earth without taking hundreds of thousands of years, they aren't really going to be interested in what we have. Most likely, they visit briefly, disguised as natives, gather their information, and leave...either that, or seed it with probes that eventually return to their home systems.

It's undoubtedly 100% peaceful, scientific, and cursory...probably an entry-level assignment for some alien undergrad.

However, I think that pretty much all accounts of UFOs and alien abductions are pretty much either BS, hallucinations, or mistaken military aircraft. The reason is simple: If a civilization were advanced enough to travel to us, they would not only have no need to abduct people, but if they were hostile they wouldn't fuck around with it...they'd just unload, conquer, exploit, and move on.

For every hung over hillbilly that wakes up disoriented in an Alabama motel room with a bleeding rectum and faint memories of being "probed" ,...I have but one bit of advice for them: Stop buying drinks for strange men in bars!! :eek:

Aliens, huh?

UFOs -- not all are easily explainable. I've been to Roswell, seen the museum, and I am convinced something was covered up. I'm not sure what, but there is far more going on that most people know. Whether it was aliens or a new brand of space-applicable makeup remains to be seen.

As to whether they exist, part of me wants there to be more intelligent life. But, being a monkey person by nature, I am afraid of what I don't understand. Perhaps there is life out there, but as Heinlein asks in one of his few predictions, what about life as we don't know it? It is conceivable that there are intelligent, human-like (in mindset) aliens, but what about stuff that is completely foreign to our imaginations, vast as they are?

I forget who mentioned it, but I guess it does come down to belief: we don't know enough about life to say whether or not life-as-we-don't-know-it could exist. (Wouldn't it be life-as-we-know-it, then?)

Come to think of it, despite all the scientific progress of the 20th century, what we know about science in general is very limited; we do not understand everything. For all we know, the so-called Laws of Physics might change in 100 years, and we could learn that the speed of light is a suggestion more than a constant. History has shown that to be possible, many times.

We think we understand a lot, but what we don't understand (and what we might be wrong about) is immense.

Is it possible for intelligent life to have visited Earth? I've thought about this before, and it requires a bit of a thought exercise. The question of when it evolved does come to play: suppose a planet very similar to Earth developed intelligent human-like life. The only difference for this: the whole process started 10,000 years before it did on Earth. 10,000 years is not that much in the span of the universe, and as far as I can tell, the universe was very similar to the way it is now (smaller, perhaps).

Given these conditions, it is possible for human-like life to develop with a 10 millenia head start. I don't know what humanity will be like after another 10,000 years, but it is possible to have an intelligent human-like race with ridiculously advanced technology. The question then becomes: what technologies could a human-like race develop in 10 millenia, starting from now?

I won't go into life-as-we-don't-know-it. I don't have the creativity to do so now. :)

For every hung over hillbilly that wakes up disoriented in an Alabama motel room with a bleeding rectum and faint memories of being "probed" ,...I have but one bit of advice for them: Stop buying drinks for strange men in bars!! :eek:
Hey! Go ruin someone else's weekend, buddy! I don't tell you how to live and shoot down your prospects/marks!

BACKWOODSSQUATCHES THEORY ON THE PROBABILITY OF TERRESTRIAL VISITATION.

The basis of this theory will discuss the probability of visitation by extraterrestrial beings.
For the purposes of being objective we will be using the number 000.1%

The estimated number of stars in our galaxy is approximately 250,000,000,000. Two hundred and fifty billion stars.
Some of the following conjecture is purposely innacurate, and used as an exagerated low number.

Out of the number of stars in the Milky Way, lets assume that the number of stars capable of even having planets orbiting it,
is 000.1 percent.
This leaves us with 250, 000,000 stars.

Out of that two hundred and fifty million stars,lets assume that the number of stars with planetary systems that have planets
with the capability to sustain life as we know it, is 000.1 %
That gives us 250,000 solar systems with such planets.

Now, lets assume that the number of those solar systems that actually contain life, is 0.001%
That gives us 25,000 solar systems with life, as we know it.

Now lets go further and say that out of that number, the number of solar systems with life, have the capabilty to utilize inter-stellar travel,
is 0.001 percent.
This gives us 2,500 solar systems, with civilizations, advanced enough to traverse light-years.

Now, lets go even further, and say that the number of those systems, that have such capability, have also visited the Earth,
is 000.1%

The answer is 2.5

Numerically possible, if a bit unlikely.


Conclusion: it is entirely likely, and numerically evident that life does indeed exist beyond earth.
In fact, by this weak theory alone, it is conceivable that the universe is teeming with intelligent life.
However, the possibility of Terrestrial visitation while still numerically possible, is a bit unlikely.

BACKWOODSSQUATCHES THEORY ON THE PROBABILITY OF TERRESTRIAL VISITATION.

The basis of this theory will discuss the probability of visitation by extraterrestrial beings.
For the purposes of being objective we will be using the number 000.1%

The estimated number of stars in our galaxy is approximately 250,000,000,000. Two hundred and fifty billion stars.
Some of the following conjecture is purposely innacurate, and used as an exagerated low number.

Out of the number of stars in the Milky Way, lets assume that the number of stars capable of even having planets orbiting it,
is 000.1 percent.
This leaves us with 250, 000,000 stars.

Out of that two hundred and fifty million stars,lets assume that the number of stars with planetary systems that have planets
with the capability to sustain life as we know it, is 000.1 %
That gives us 250,000 solar systems with such planets.

Now, lets assume that the number of those solar systems that actually contain life, is 0.001%
That gives us 25,000 solar systems with life, as we know it.

Now lets go further and say that out of that number, the number of solar systems with life, have the capabilty to utilize inter-stellar travel,
is 0.001 percent.
This gives us 2,500 solar systems, with civilizations, advanced enough to traverse light-years.

Now, lets go even further, and say that the number of those systems, that have such capability, have also visited the Earth,
is 000.1%

The answer is 2.5

Numerically possible, if a bit unlikely.


Conclusion: it is entirely likely, and numerically evident that life does indeed exist beyond earth.
In fact, by this weak theory alone, it is conceivable that the universe is teeming with intelligent life.
However, the possibility of Terrestrial visitation while still numerically possible, is a bit unlikely.


The problem with this theory is that you just plucked all those 000.1% figures out of your nasal passages, rather than some credible source...

I think that out in the vast, hugely massive universe we can't possibly be the only life forms. There's a good chance life is out there, but its likely its just simple one celled creatures or something not of high intelligence. It would be interesting if there was another intelligent life form.
And if there was another planet you knew of that had intelligent life, would you want to go and check it out?

Im sure if we ever advance in technology to travel to other galaxies, we'll be UFO's to any intelligent life forms, if there are any.

Just think of the possibilities if we could travel through space to other galaxies.......

I've seen UFO's (the likes of which no human being has ever even come close to producing as far as current public record goes) a couple of times with others there to witness them with me, and once without (the most far out encounter too dammit!).

http://www.disclosureproject.org/

The Disclosure Project is a nonprofit research project working to fully disclose the facts about UFOs, extraterrestrial intelligence, and classified advanced energy and propulsion systems. We have over 400 government, military, and intelligence community witnesses testifying to their direct, personal, first hand experience with UFOs, ETs, ET technology, and the cover-up that keeps this information secret.

BACKWOODSSQUATCHES THEORY ON THE PROBABILITY OF TERRESTRIAL VISITATION.

The basis of this theory will discuss the probability of visitation by extraterrestrial beings.
For the purposes of being objective we will be using the number 000.1%

The estimated number of stars in our galaxy is approximately 250,000,000,000. Two hundred and fifty billion stars.
Some of the following conjecture is purposely innacurate, and used as an exagerated low number.

Out of the number of stars in the Milky Way, lets assume that the number of stars capable of even having planets orbiting it,
is 000.1 percent.
This leaves us with 250, 000,000 stars.

Out of that two hundred and fifty million stars,lets assume that the number of stars with planetary systems that have planets
with the capability to sustain life as we know it, is 000.1 %
That gives us 250,000 solar systems with such planets.

Now, lets assume that the number of those solar systems that actually contain life, is 0.001%
That gives us 25,000 solar systems with life, as we know it.

Now lets go further and say that out of that number, the number of solar systems with life, have the capabilty to utilize inter-stellar travel,
is 0.001 percent.
This gives us 2,500 solar systems, with civilizations, advanced enough to traverse light-years.

Now, lets go even further, and say that the number of those systems, that have such capability, have also visited the Earth,
is 000.1%

The answer is 2.5

Numerically possible, if a bit unlikely.


Conclusion: it is entirely likely, and numerically evident that life does indeed exist beyond earth.
In fact, by this weak theory alone, it is conceivable that the universe is teeming with intelligent life.
However, the possibility of Terrestrial visitation while still numerically possible, is a bit unlikely.

Those numbers seem reasonable, but you left out one variable - time. in the billions of years the planet has existed, there has only been a sentient species for about a million. and we have only been abla to transmit messages to space for 70. 70 years out of bilions.

Although there is almost certainly alien life out there, we have all gotten caught up in the star trek model, where every species developed at roughly the same time, and has about the same level of technological advancement.

In reality a species could have evolved on another planet, become vastly more advanced than we are now, explored the galaxy, and then eventually become extinct and their planet become uninhabitable millions of years before we ever existed. or millions of years after.

Also who is to say that intelligent life on other planets would behave like us anyway? It is only really white people out of all humans who initially had the tendency to constantly expand and explore and devour every resource. The native americans, africans, aboriginies, infact most native people, all lived in equilibrium with their environment, maintaining relatively stable populations and territories. I dont know why this is. probably to do with the different climates or something. but would aliens necessarily want to explore?

Im going to write an essay about ufo's for uni in a few days so if i come accross anything in my research i will make a more informed post. sorry for going on so long.

but would aliens necessarily want to explore?

Yes. The reason that Native Americans and the like were at equilibrium with their environment was the relatively high proportion of energy sources to humans. Had the Europeans not overrun them, they would have eventually explored out of necessity. The same is probably true of aliens. There is only a finite amount of energy on a planet for any alien species to use. When they run out, they will either regress technologically or colonize another planet with more energy.

Those numbers seem reasonable, but you left out one variable - time. in the billions of years the planet has existed, there has only been a sentient species for about a million. and we have only been abla to transmit messages to space for 70. 70 years out of bilions.

Well, I didnt account for time, becuase in my monsterously simple theory its practically irrelevant.
The way I see it, the theory simply deals in the present, becuase I purposely used a tiny number like 000.1 to give the results that "Lowball" feel.
The point to all my blathering, is that these figures only involve star systems within the Milky Way, alone.
If you then add every solar system in the universe, and add in the probability of life existing EVER...I think the odds would be in the trillions to the positve.

Although there is almost certainly alien life out there, we have all gotten caught up in the star trek model, where every species developed at roughly the same time, and has about the same level of technological advancement.

In reality a species could have evolved on another planet, become vastly more advanced than we are now, explored the galaxy, and then eventually become extinct and their planet become uninhabitable millions of years before we ever existed. or millions of years after.

I for one, have never prescribed to that.
For all we know, we could be the LEAST advanced civilization anywhere.

Also who is to say that intelligent life on other planets would behave like us anyway? It is only really white people out of all humans who initially had the tendency to constantly expand and explore and devour every resource. The native americans, africans, aboriginies, infact most native people, all lived in equilibrium with their environment, maintaining relatively stable populations and territories. I dont know why this is. probably to do with the different climates or something. but would aliens necessarily want to explore?

I would like to believe anything "Intelligent" has the intuitive desire for knowledge.
This must include space exploration.

Im going to write an essay about ufo's for uni in a few days so if i come accross anything in my research i will make a more informed post. sorry for going on so long.

No worries.
Good luck with the essay. If you need any pseudo-intellectual posturing, Im here for ya.

Well the sheer size of the Universe means that life has almost certainly appeared elsewhere, whether that life is intelligent or still at a bacterial stage is another matter.

However, I suspect that most if not all UFO stories are fake.

Here's a little known story: when Soviet Russia was taking over eastern European countries the US sent soldiers to smuggle the crown jewels out of one particular country (I can't remember which) in a truck. To keep the mission a secret the soldiers were told that the truck contained a crashed UFO.

This is why I think that many UFO stories are spread the government to cover up their more mundane but very secretive projects: Roswell and Area 51 are prime examples of this.

IStill, even at light speed, the journey would take over 4 years. Any sort of interstellar travel would require some sort of sidestep technology to make it worthwhile. But, let's say they also are bound by physics and cannot go faster than light. It still would take infinite amounts of energy to get to c in the first place. The technology needed would be so far above us, it would be akin to dropping a nuclear carrier back when stones were high-tech.

And they would need a way to get a ship to Sol and back again. That's 9 years round trip. The ability of the ship's life support is staggering; artificial gravity, the ability to replenish air, the ability to grow and maintain food, waste disposal. A sub can stay underwater for a long time, but not 9 years. Again, the technology would far surpass anything we have.


Yes and no.

For us, the time would be 9 years.

Assuming they're moving at the speed of light, it takes no time for them. The resources needed wouldn't be needed for 9 years; they'd hardly need any resources at all.

Except the energy needed to GET to the speed of light, of course.

The way I see it, the theory simply deals in the present, becuase I purposely used a tiny number like 000.1 to give the results that "Lowball" feel.Quick pedantry note: I didn't say anything before but you originally used "000.1%". That's 1/1000th (and works with your calculations) but would be less confusing to write as "0.1%". The above multiple of "000.1" (a.k.a. 0.1) is 10%. Are you getting mixed up with "0.001"? (Of course you showed your working, so you would have gotten some marks for it in an exam... ;)) Right, pedantry over.


If you then add every solar system in the universe, and add in the probability of life existing EVER...I think the odds would be in the trillions to the positve.Considering the distances involved, you'd probably find that the additive probabilities of extra-galactic civilisations would reduce exponentionally, given the larger distances they'd have to travel (e.g. the forumla predicting, for given values, that the nearest civilisation to us is in the next galaxy, then they have also to traverse the intervening space). Thus while the predicted number of extant civilisations in the galaxy is going to be dwarfed by the number in the local galactic cluster which is in turn going to be absolutely squashed by the number within the whole universe, the probability of a visit from 'this-galaxy-or-the-next' is not going to benefit from a mere multiple of 'this-galaxy-only' due to the incredible distances that 'the-next-galaxy-only' residetns would have to travel...

I haven't done any back-of-the-envelope calculations, but I've a feeling the inverse-square rule should apply (equivalent to the 'area' of the exploratory wave-front) and it might even be as much as an inverse-cube (time of travel, for any given type of travel other than instantaneous, would mean additional opportunity to 'miss' us at an observable point of development), though there is also a factor in the original equation for lengths of time, so that might not be relevant.

For all we know, we could be the LEAST advanced civilization anywhere.I reckon we are, but mainly because we're 'barely' a civlisation' (a few hundred thousand years or so, depending on your definition for the start of a civilisation) and thus (unless civilisations are so thick on the ground that every system has them) it's highly likely that by the measure of any decent multi-million-year civilisation we're just starting, and any 'younger' ones haven't started yet.

(Ignoring speed of light/relativity, of course... It's quite possible that in our future we manage to remotely detect the rise of a civilisation on another star system, whilst they are 'simultaneously' observing our own youth, courtesy of the inherant time-delay of observation.... And we may even be so far apart that while we broadcast to them saying "hello, we're watching you" to the other, our respective signals will only reach their targets after we have both died off/ascended/whatever...)

Has anyone ever stared up at the night sky and wonder if there is life out there? Has anyone ever wondered what are UFO's? Why would an alien race travel millions if not billions of light year just to see us? Hmmm.

Nope.

I've pretty much concluded that Fenrir will eat the sun before any aliens arrive on our sad little dirt ball.