NationStates Jolt Archive


"Bird flu" invades Africa! US is next??

Eutrusca
09-02-2006, 17:45
COMMENTARY: Well, the metaphorical shit is about to hit the allegorical fan now. The first cases of bird flu have been detected in Africa. What started in Vietnam has moved Eastward at a relatively rapid pace. God help us all if ( when?? ) the virus mutates enough to enable it to be passed from human to human!


Nigeria Has Africa's First Case of Bird Flu (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/09/international/africa/09flu.html?th&emc=th)


By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL
Published: February 9, 2006
The bird flu virus has been confirmed for the first time in Africa, a continent that is ill prepared to contain its spread, international health authorities said yesterday.

The Nigerian health authorities reported an outbreak of the (A)H5N1 virus to the World Organization for Animal Health in Paris, which tracks the spread of veterinary diseases.

The outbreak began Jan. 10, and more than 40,000 chickens have died at an egg farm in Kaduna State, in northern Nigeria, according to the report. A United Nations laboratory in Padua, Italy, confirmed late Tuesday that the cause was (A)H5N1.

While international health officials had long prepared for the possibility that migratory birds might carry bird flu to Africa, confirmation that it had actually arrived nonetheless set off new concern.

The outbreak "proves that no country is risk-free and that we are facing a serious international crisis," said Samuel Jutzi, director of the Animal Production and Health Division at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome.

It is not yet clear if the outbreak in Kaduna has already spread or if any humans have been infected.

Bird flu is normally controlled by quick detection of the virus, quarantine and extensive culling of birds in the affected area — strategies that are extremely difficult to carry out in poor countries that have limited laboratory capabilities and where farmers are reluctant to kill birds that are their only source of protein or income.

"If the situation in Nigeria gets out of control," Mr. Jutzi said, "it will have a devastating impact on the poultry population in the region, it will seriously damage the livelihoods of millions of people and it will increase the exposure of humans to the virus."

Nigeria has about 140 million fowls, and because the outbreak was not reported or confirmed quickly, the virus had plentiful opportunities to spread unchecked.

The Animal Production and Health Division has been tracking rumors of bird deaths in Nigeria for several weeks, said Juan Lubroth, a senior veterinarian at the organization, and is investigating similar rumors in other African nations, including Mali, Egypt, Malawi and Libya.

He noted that many such rumors would not prove true, because "any time a bird hits a window, we may hear about it."

But he said that "it should not take 20 days between rumors and investigations, and taking samples" to send to international labs. "I would like — and we need — a much quicker response," he said. The Nigerian samples were sent to the United Nations laboratory in Italy just last week.

United Nations officials said countries throughout Africa should be on high alert. Mr. Jutzi said, "It is vital that all instances of multiple bird death are reported to authorities and investigated promptly."

F.A.O. and the World Organization for Animal Health are sending veterinarians to Nigeria to assess the situation and have already dispatched two local experts to Kaduna State to advise the local authorities.

Worldwide, about 160 people have become infected with bird flu, almost all of whom had extremely close contact with sick birds. About half have died.

While the (A)H5N1 virus does not spread from human to human, scientists are worried that it might acquire that ability through normal genetic reshuffling, setting off a human pandemic. The likelihood that such reshuffling will occur increases with each uncontrolled bird outbreak and each farmer who becomes infected.

Genetic rearrangement is most likely to occur in a human body when a person is simultaneously infected with the bird virus and a human flu virus that can swap genes.

Nigeria is a member of the recently formed West African Network on Avian Influenza, sponsored by the United Nations. For years, it has also taken part in a United Nations project on reporting crossborder diseases, so if anything, officials there "are more sensitized" to the issue of bird flu than their counterparts in other nations, and the response might be slower elsewhere, Mr. Lubroth said.

Even so, United Nations officials noted, Nigeria would need considerable aid in combating the outbreak.

"The animal health infrastructure in the country is facing a big challenge and will require outside assistance," said Joseph Domenech, head of veterinary services at F.A.O.

Though Nigerian health officials said they had taken steps to contain the disease and to search for other outbreaks, farmers in Kaduna State said yesterday that bird markets remained open and poultry was still moving around the affected area.

"The government should have quarantined the affected farms to prevent further spread," said Awalu Haruna, secretary of the Poultry Farmers Association of Kano, the state capital, The Associated Press reported. "But as I speak, this has not been done. There is still movement of humans and birds in and out of these farms."
Drunk commies deleted
09-02-2006, 17:47
Well considering African nation's great track record in containing and eradicating infectious disease I'm sure that there's nothing to worry about. I'm sure that it won't spread to poultry in most every African nation and have millions of additional chances to mutate into a human virus.
Deep Kimchi
09-02-2006, 17:48
Only a matter of time.

Birds migrate everywhere.
Gargantua City State
09-02-2006, 17:56
Are there birds that migrate from Africa/Europe to the Americas? I've never heard of it...
Anyway, as it hasn't mutated yet, and has already had millions of chances to do so, I'm becomming less worried about a major pandemic. Once again, the media has taken a "potential" threat and made it sound imminent.
I'm not going to sweat over it and spend the rest of my life worrying about it.
Just reminds me of the doomsayers who proclaim the end of the world is right around the corner, and have been saying so for ages.
East Canuck
09-02-2006, 17:59
"Bird flu" invades Africa! US is next??
I would venture that Brazil would be hit before the US. Even France would be hit before the US if it comes from Africa.

But then, boats have been known to carry diseases before...
Lunatic Goofballs
09-02-2006, 18:02
Are there birds that migrate from Africa/Europe to the Americas? I've never heard of it...
Anyway, as it hasn't mutated yet, and has already had millions of chances to do so, I'm becomming less worried about a major pandemic. Once again, the media has taken a "potential" threat and made it sound imminent.
I'm not going to sweat over it and spend the rest of my life worrying about it.
Just reminds me of the doomsayers who proclaim the end of the world is right around the corner, and have been saying so for ages.

You are right and wrong.

The odds of Bird Flu mutating into a version that can pass from human to human and maintain it's lethality is very small. There are vaccines in the works.

However, the last major Flu 'pandemic'(if you can call it that) killed 200 million people in six months. By the time it worries you, it might be too late. *nod*
Psychotic Mongooses
09-02-2006, 18:04
Man, to be in New Zealand right now....

I bet them germs can't even find NZ on a map....
Gargantua City State
09-02-2006, 18:05
You are right and wrong.

The odds of Bird Flu mutating into a version that can pass from human to human and maintain it's lethality is very small. There are vaccines in the works.

However, the last major Flu 'pandemic'(if you can call it that) killed 200 million people in six months. By the time it worries you, it might be too late. *nod*

Granted, pandemics are extremely lethal.
But if I spent my time worrying about every possible new threat to my well being, I wouldn't be spending much time enjoying life, would I? ;) If it happens, it happens.
Lunatic Goofballs
09-02-2006, 18:06
Man, to be in New Zealand right now....

I bet them germs can't even find NZ on a map....

New Zealand is on maps?!?

:confused:
Eutrusca
09-02-2006, 18:07
Well considering African nation's great track record in containing and eradicating infectious disease I'm sure that there's nothing to worry about. I'm sure that it won't spread to poultry in most every African nation and have millions of additional chances to mutate into a human virus.
That's irony, yes? Please tell me you're being ironic.
Lunatic Goofballs
09-02-2006, 18:08
Granted, pandemics are extremely lethal.
But if I spent my time worrying about every possible new threat to my well being, I wouldn't be spending much time enjoying life, would I? ;) If it happens, it happens.

Do what I do; Stay dirty. Undercook your meat. Don't wash your hands. Eat food off the floor. It's good for you. Keeps your immune system nice and strong.

If you need a crash course, go to a farm and roll around in manure for a while. There's nothing healthier. :)
Psychotic Mongooses
09-02-2006, 18:09
New Zealand is on maps?!?

:confused:

Yeah, you know... down there near... hold on...

*opens map*

...Rand McNally. :)
Deep Kimchi
09-02-2006, 18:10
Do what I do; Stay dirty. Undercook your meat. Don't wash your hands. Eat food off the floor. It's good for you. Keeps your immune system nice and strong.

If you need a crash course, go to a farm and roll around in manure for a while. There's nothing healthier. :)

You forgot "eat sushi" and "have sex without protection".
Drunk commies deleted
09-02-2006, 18:10
New Zealand is on maps?!?

:confused:
Nevermind that. There's a NEW Zealand?
Lunatic Goofballs
09-02-2006, 18:11
You forgot "eat sushi" and "have sex without protection".

Now that's just reckless. :p
Gargantua City State
09-02-2006, 18:13
Man, to be in New Zealand right now....

I bet them germs can't even find NZ on a map....

Just because Americans can't... ;) :P
Anyone see that Rick Mercer special where they renamed countries on the globe, and asked Americans to find them? What did they rename NZ? It might have been Iraq... that's the name that pops into my head, anyway. There were people who were AMAZED and said, "Oh, I didn't know it was X" where X could be 'so far away' or 'an island' or any number of things.
Granted, he's not going to show the Americans who KNOW where Iraq is, because that wouldn't be as humorous. :) But it was darn funny to watch!
Drunk commies deleted
09-02-2006, 18:13
That's irony, yes? Please tell me you're being ironic.
Yeah. We're talking about the continent that screwed up the UN's chances of eradicating polio because some backwoods muslim imams decided that the vaccine was a plot to make Muslims sterile.
Eutrusca
09-02-2006, 18:15
Are there birds that migrate from Africa/Europe to the Americas?
Yes:

"A small percentage of the populations of a few bird species migrate regularly in August and September from breeding grounds in the Old World to wintering grounds along the eastern seaboard of North America. An example of this group is the Eurasian Wigeon (Anas penelope), which breeds across the entire Palearctic region from Iceland to Siberia's Kamchatka Peninsula and winters primarily in the temperate and tropical zones of the Old World ...."

And from Asia as well ( the article discusses West Nile virus, but is also applicable to bird flu ):

"Eurasian Wigeons are not the only species with such a migration pattern. Eurasian populations of several species in which evidence of exposure (e.g., antibodies) to the virus has been detected are rare migrants along the eastern seaboard of North America (Table 1). However, if normal migration were a likely pathway, the virus would likely have become established earlier in this hemisphere, since individual birds of several species known to be susceptible to the virus migrate annually from Eurasia to the United States (Table 1). However, the numbers of migrants are so small that the probability of the cooccurrence of an infectious migrant, ornithophilic vector mosquitoes, and numerous avian amplifying hosts seems low. Furthermore, the most likely form of the virus carried by migrants would be that from West Africa, because that is where most western European-breeding populations of these species winter. The New York City strain of the virus was nearly identical to that found in the Middle East, which is different from the West African strain (13). Despite these considerations, normal migration remains a distinct possibility as the mode of entry for the disease."
Gargantua City State
09-02-2006, 18:16
Yeah. We're talking about the continent that screwed up the UN's chances of eradicating polio because some backwoods muslim imams decided that the vaccine was a plot to make Muslims sterile.

Or how about the widespread destruction of AIDs because Catholic Priests tell them not to use condoms because it's a sin?
Yeah... if it's going to become a pandemic, it just hit the fertile lands.
As if Africa needed ANOTHER disease to ravage its population.
Eutrusca
09-02-2006, 18:17
Yeah. We're talking about the continent that screwed up the UN's chances of eradicating polio because some backwoods muslim imams decided that the vaccine was a plot to make Muslims sterile.
Sigh. Why oh why am I NOT surprised! :(
Gargantua City State
09-02-2006, 18:18
Yes:

Well... that's a little more unnerving.
Well, either it mutates and comes over planes, or it doesn't and comes and cuases us to kill all our birds... either way, I guess it'll get here eventually. The pandemic thing still remains to be seen.
Psychotic Mongooses
09-02-2006, 18:18
Just because Americans can't... ;) :P
Anyone see that Rick Mercer special where they renamed countries on the globe, and asked Americans to find them? What did they rename NZ? It might have been Iraq... that's the name that pops into my head, anyway. There were people who were AMAZED and said, "Oh, I didn't know it was X" where X could be 'so far away' or 'an island' or any number of things.
Granted, he's not going to show the Americans who KNOW where Iraq is, because that wouldn't be as humorous. :) But it was darn funny to watch!

*sigh*
People still think I'm from the US...:(
Jacques Derrida
09-02-2006, 18:20
Yeah. We're talking about the continent that screwed up the UN's chances of eradicating polio because some backwoods muslim imams decided that the vaccine was a plot to make Muslims sterile.

I remember that. Another feather in the cap of islam.

What can you expect from a religion that expects it brightest young men to waste their most productive learning years solely memorizing the koran though. (Especially when they try to keep their women illiterate).

No wonder ignorance is so rife throughout the islamic world.
Silliopolous
09-02-2006, 18:20
Man, to be in New Zealand right now....

I bet them germs can't even find NZ on a map....


No, these are Asian germs. They got a good education.

Now, if it were germs from the American school system.....

:p :D