Ice Hockey Players
08-02-2006, 04:07
OK, so there seems to be a great number of World War III threads, but most of them seem to be geared toward what current nation in their current status is likely to begin World War III. The Israel-Iran conflict is certainly a possibility, as is China-Japan, India-Pakistan, or North Korea-anyone with functioning brain cells. However, the last World War didn't turn out as as people might have thought it would play out after World War I, especially since most Allied nations didn't really wanted to fight.
Naturally, with the World War II parallels, I came upon three nations to be this speculation's Germany, Italy, and Japan, and the three nations actually sort of fit the mold. For Nation One, they fit the mold of a powerful, strong nation with a history of decisive victories and a few frustrating defeats; they also feel as though the world isn't giving them a fair shake. The leadership is democratically elected but is more than willing to take liberties with the process, including, perhaps, doing away with the democratic process. This nation is our Nazi Germany.
Nation Two is a nationalistic land that has, historically, fared less than spectacularly in warfare but has, nonetheless, brought about great leadership upon whose ideals and history the pro-war movement will rely. Nation Two has had its disagreements with Nation One, but under new leadership, they are willing to forget about such squabbles if Nation One is able to get them the living space they desire. This nation is our Fascist Italy.
Nation Three? A bit more of a stretch, but there are parallels. After years of turmoil, a new regime turned Nation Three into a secretive society. Previously changing ideals, even a possible opening up of society, is thwarted by a strict dictatorship that doesn't allow its citizens to leave. Due to forces beyond its control, it is forced to open its borders and trade with the West, but in large part, reform doesn't come easily. Many are resistant and even resentful toward the West, and an ambitious leader vows to smite Westerners - with the exception of Nation One and Nation Two. This nation is our Imperialist Japan.
By now, it's obvious who these nations are, I am sure.
Nation One is the United States of America, led by the Bush administration. Many will argue that his rise to power was under less-than-clean circumstances, he's made no bones about tapping phones, and they wanted war with Iraq at all costs. Surely they wouldn't be able to get away with staying in power beyond 2008 without some external circumstances, but if there are no external circumstances, the Bush administration could easily make some. One possibility is that a hurricane destroys Washington D.C. in late 2008, and the federal government decides that setting up a temporary government in another city is more important than electing a new government. Except in affected areas, local elections proceed as normal, but with no federal elections, turnout is at an all-time low. Some state leaders threaten secession, but that's seen as infeasible and, for some, it's political suicide. Eventually, all 50 states go along with it, and federal elections are brought about in 2009 to placate citizens - but there is no place to vote for a President, and no third-party candidates are on the ballot. At the same time, threats of terrorist activity, or perceived terrorist activity, are pervasive in some major cities, and it all comes out against Muslims and members of liberal third parties. Given time, the Constitution is either amended for Bush's purposes or dissolved altogether, the federal government goes along with thhe administration's agenda, and even state governments don't have a prayer against the will of the rest of the country. Under intense pressure, even the most liberal states in the U.S. go against their previously liberal ideals to please the Bush administration. By 2015, homosexuality is criminalized, the death penalty is in full force, wire-tapping is commonplace and accepted, abortion is illegal, and the work week is long and hard with working conditions not a priority. Bush even finds a way to deal with pesky gun-owners - a pseudo-conscription scheme in which those who are skilled with guns are offered money, education, and a better life to become soldiers...whether or not the government intends to honor these promises is another story.
OK, now for Nation Two. This one is also pretty obvious...I refer, of course, to France under Jean-Marie Le Pen. It starts in 2006 with a nationalist mood. Jacques Chirac finishes third in the Presidential voting - Le Pen is second and a socialist is first. Thanks to some more rioting in France, there is anger at immigrants, and the immigrant-hating, racist Le Pen is elected, along with other National Front members. Immigrants, naturally, don't take too kindly to this news, and rioting continues. Le Pen's solution involves cracking down on immigration to the point where France's broders are closed and any immigrants within France are deemed criminals and sentenced to hard labor. Working French citizens watch as their 35-hour work week is lengthened, their lengthy vacations disappear, and by 2015, they work as hard as Americans in similar conditions. By this point, all parties except the National Front are outlawed, Le Pen only has to get re-elected in 2010, and the French military is no longer a punch line. After invading Algeria, they are seen as an angry force that takes what they want and runs with it. No one tries to stop them ilitarily, mainly because they don't want to, but the French also argue the Doctrine of Pre-Emption, since Algeria elected a fundamentalist government again and France saw this as a threat to their anti-immigrant policies.
OK, off to Nation Three. They sound an awful lot like Russia...that's because they are. Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, tries to revise history to argue anything from the idea that the USSR's defeat in the Cold War was due to Glasnost and Perestroika to the ridiculous notion that the Russians actually WON the Cold War. The press has long since been censored, and the Russians have a Muslim group to use as a scapegoat - the Chechens. By this point, Putin feels he doesn't have to impress anyone and flat-out starts rounding up Chechens and throwing them into gulags. Also, Putin starts picking on the Ukraine again, mainly since it needs the resources, and he decides to send in the mobilized Russian milotary to invade the Ukraine when they refused to cooperate with them. Unlike in previous ward, however, the Russians get more up-to-date than some of their neighbors in warfare, since, as the aggressors, they kind of have to. Given time, Putin suspends elections, of course, and starts up a modern version of Pravda as a government press tool. By 2015, the Russians have broken Chechnya, overrun the Ukraine, and are threatening the Middle East just as much as the Americans and French are.
Offhand, the targets of the Axis Powers (named for lack of a better name) is the Middle Eastern and Islamic nations. Russia is after all of its former republics and then some, though they don't seek another invasion of Afghanistan a la 1980. A nuclear Iran might factor in here, as would a nuclear Pakistan, which makes India a wild card. China would enter the war on the side of the Muslim nations if they felt their security threatened, especially by Russia. Japan would likely remain neutral, even if the U.S. tried to prod them into militarizing. In a situation like this, I could even see Israel remaining neutral, as they wouldn't dream of aligning with the Muslim nations but would hardly think much of a dictatorial and overambitious USA; also, the Muslim alliance would have bigger fish to fry than Israel, and in a war for their survival, they would have to behave somewhat rationally.
The biggest question mark is the European Union. They would be without France at this point, so France and Russia would be their main focal point. If the EU mobilized, they could knock France into next week, and with China's assistance, they could probably handle Russia, but assuming they rebuild the defeated nations with something similar to the Marshall Plan, they still have an angry USA to deal with. So it's 2020 and Europe is in shambles while the USA is terrorizing the Muslim world. China wants no part of it, and meanwhile, North Korea has taken to even more desperate measures to try to get attention. By now, they have tested hydrogen bombs, and Kim Jong-chul, son of Kim Jong Il, who died in 2019 of cancer, is looking to make North Korea a power player in the world. He follows in his father's footsteps, and some would say he's batshit crazy. Neither the USA nor the EU wants to deal with North Korea and basically give them what they want. Naturally, Kim learns that the world is happy to appease North Korea, which is taking steps in turning their ongoing conflict with South Korea into another hot war.
OK, for those of you who have stayed with me this far, I have this for you:
If the USA, France, and Russia form a strategic alliance, who stands against them and what provokes them? What of Japan, India, and the possibility of Israel remaining neutral? What will North Korea do to turn attention to them and gain concessions? Can anyone stop a fierce, imperialist USA? What about a defeated and newly internationalist France and Russia? Who uses nukes first? Last? Does the world end? Does anyone even fire a nuke, or do we see a newer, possibly deadlier weapon?
Speculate. Go on, speculate. No sources are necessary; the only source I used was Kim Jong Il's biographical information.
Naturally, with the World War II parallels, I came upon three nations to be this speculation's Germany, Italy, and Japan, and the three nations actually sort of fit the mold. For Nation One, they fit the mold of a powerful, strong nation with a history of decisive victories and a few frustrating defeats; they also feel as though the world isn't giving them a fair shake. The leadership is democratically elected but is more than willing to take liberties with the process, including, perhaps, doing away with the democratic process. This nation is our Nazi Germany.
Nation Two is a nationalistic land that has, historically, fared less than spectacularly in warfare but has, nonetheless, brought about great leadership upon whose ideals and history the pro-war movement will rely. Nation Two has had its disagreements with Nation One, but under new leadership, they are willing to forget about such squabbles if Nation One is able to get them the living space they desire. This nation is our Fascist Italy.
Nation Three? A bit more of a stretch, but there are parallels. After years of turmoil, a new regime turned Nation Three into a secretive society. Previously changing ideals, even a possible opening up of society, is thwarted by a strict dictatorship that doesn't allow its citizens to leave. Due to forces beyond its control, it is forced to open its borders and trade with the West, but in large part, reform doesn't come easily. Many are resistant and even resentful toward the West, and an ambitious leader vows to smite Westerners - with the exception of Nation One and Nation Two. This nation is our Imperialist Japan.
By now, it's obvious who these nations are, I am sure.
Nation One is the United States of America, led by the Bush administration. Many will argue that his rise to power was under less-than-clean circumstances, he's made no bones about tapping phones, and they wanted war with Iraq at all costs. Surely they wouldn't be able to get away with staying in power beyond 2008 without some external circumstances, but if there are no external circumstances, the Bush administration could easily make some. One possibility is that a hurricane destroys Washington D.C. in late 2008, and the federal government decides that setting up a temporary government in another city is more important than electing a new government. Except in affected areas, local elections proceed as normal, but with no federal elections, turnout is at an all-time low. Some state leaders threaten secession, but that's seen as infeasible and, for some, it's political suicide. Eventually, all 50 states go along with it, and federal elections are brought about in 2009 to placate citizens - but there is no place to vote for a President, and no third-party candidates are on the ballot. At the same time, threats of terrorist activity, or perceived terrorist activity, are pervasive in some major cities, and it all comes out against Muslims and members of liberal third parties. Given time, the Constitution is either amended for Bush's purposes or dissolved altogether, the federal government goes along with thhe administration's agenda, and even state governments don't have a prayer against the will of the rest of the country. Under intense pressure, even the most liberal states in the U.S. go against their previously liberal ideals to please the Bush administration. By 2015, homosexuality is criminalized, the death penalty is in full force, wire-tapping is commonplace and accepted, abortion is illegal, and the work week is long and hard with working conditions not a priority. Bush even finds a way to deal with pesky gun-owners - a pseudo-conscription scheme in which those who are skilled with guns are offered money, education, and a better life to become soldiers...whether or not the government intends to honor these promises is another story.
OK, now for Nation Two. This one is also pretty obvious...I refer, of course, to France under Jean-Marie Le Pen. It starts in 2006 with a nationalist mood. Jacques Chirac finishes third in the Presidential voting - Le Pen is second and a socialist is first. Thanks to some more rioting in France, there is anger at immigrants, and the immigrant-hating, racist Le Pen is elected, along with other National Front members. Immigrants, naturally, don't take too kindly to this news, and rioting continues. Le Pen's solution involves cracking down on immigration to the point where France's broders are closed and any immigrants within France are deemed criminals and sentenced to hard labor. Working French citizens watch as their 35-hour work week is lengthened, their lengthy vacations disappear, and by 2015, they work as hard as Americans in similar conditions. By this point, all parties except the National Front are outlawed, Le Pen only has to get re-elected in 2010, and the French military is no longer a punch line. After invading Algeria, they are seen as an angry force that takes what they want and runs with it. No one tries to stop them ilitarily, mainly because they don't want to, but the French also argue the Doctrine of Pre-Emption, since Algeria elected a fundamentalist government again and France saw this as a threat to their anti-immigrant policies.
OK, off to Nation Three. They sound an awful lot like Russia...that's because they are. Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, tries to revise history to argue anything from the idea that the USSR's defeat in the Cold War was due to Glasnost and Perestroika to the ridiculous notion that the Russians actually WON the Cold War. The press has long since been censored, and the Russians have a Muslim group to use as a scapegoat - the Chechens. By this point, Putin feels he doesn't have to impress anyone and flat-out starts rounding up Chechens and throwing them into gulags. Also, Putin starts picking on the Ukraine again, mainly since it needs the resources, and he decides to send in the mobilized Russian milotary to invade the Ukraine when they refused to cooperate with them. Unlike in previous ward, however, the Russians get more up-to-date than some of their neighbors in warfare, since, as the aggressors, they kind of have to. Given time, Putin suspends elections, of course, and starts up a modern version of Pravda as a government press tool. By 2015, the Russians have broken Chechnya, overrun the Ukraine, and are threatening the Middle East just as much as the Americans and French are.
Offhand, the targets of the Axis Powers (named for lack of a better name) is the Middle Eastern and Islamic nations. Russia is after all of its former republics and then some, though they don't seek another invasion of Afghanistan a la 1980. A nuclear Iran might factor in here, as would a nuclear Pakistan, which makes India a wild card. China would enter the war on the side of the Muslim nations if they felt their security threatened, especially by Russia. Japan would likely remain neutral, even if the U.S. tried to prod them into militarizing. In a situation like this, I could even see Israel remaining neutral, as they wouldn't dream of aligning with the Muslim nations but would hardly think much of a dictatorial and overambitious USA; also, the Muslim alliance would have bigger fish to fry than Israel, and in a war for their survival, they would have to behave somewhat rationally.
The biggest question mark is the European Union. They would be without France at this point, so France and Russia would be their main focal point. If the EU mobilized, they could knock France into next week, and with China's assistance, they could probably handle Russia, but assuming they rebuild the defeated nations with something similar to the Marshall Plan, they still have an angry USA to deal with. So it's 2020 and Europe is in shambles while the USA is terrorizing the Muslim world. China wants no part of it, and meanwhile, North Korea has taken to even more desperate measures to try to get attention. By now, they have tested hydrogen bombs, and Kim Jong-chul, son of Kim Jong Il, who died in 2019 of cancer, is looking to make North Korea a power player in the world. He follows in his father's footsteps, and some would say he's batshit crazy. Neither the USA nor the EU wants to deal with North Korea and basically give them what they want. Naturally, Kim learns that the world is happy to appease North Korea, which is taking steps in turning their ongoing conflict with South Korea into another hot war.
OK, for those of you who have stayed with me this far, I have this for you:
If the USA, France, and Russia form a strategic alliance, who stands against them and what provokes them? What of Japan, India, and the possibility of Israel remaining neutral? What will North Korea do to turn attention to them and gain concessions? Can anyone stop a fierce, imperialist USA? What about a defeated and newly internationalist France and Russia? Who uses nukes first? Last? Does the world end? Does anyone even fire a nuke, or do we see a newer, possibly deadlier weapon?
Speculate. Go on, speculate. No sources are necessary; the only source I used was Kim Jong Il's biographical information.