NationStates Jolt Archive

Is this situation with iran and the nuclear problem on the brink of another conflict or soaring oils prices, agen!? With some of the most powerful nations in the world ready to impose trade sanctions with iran would this hurt us or more or them? iran exports a hell of alot of oil which we are all using so if we stopped them exporting it then this would push up oil prices due to restricted supply. But there is also the very real threat that Iran would then be prepared to stop cargo ships in the area from transportin oil from countries like kuwait for example destroying global oil supply!!!
Arms race in the middle east if iran make nuclear bomb?
China and Russia hold the key to this?
Or we over reacting?

Is this situation with iran and the nuclear problem on the brink of another conflict or soaring oils prices, agen!? With some of the most powerful nations in the world ready to impose trade sanctions with iran would this hurt us or more or them? iran exports a hell of alot of oil which we are all using so if we stopped them exporting it then this would push up oil prices due to restricted supply. But there is also the very real threat that Iran would then be prepared to stop cargo ships in the area from transportin oil from countries like kuwait for example destroying global oil supply!!!
Arms race in the middle east if iran make nuclear bomb?
China and Russia hold the key to this?
Or we over reacting?

Simply said, total sanctions (which is unlikely) would destroy them far faster then all of the rest of us. A strong majority of their economy depends on oil exports.. no exports = no food, no money to support the military etc. Even if Iran tried to distrupt oil transport through military action, this would only sanction targeted air strikes against them.. and of course we could secure the gulf with a UN force

It'll hurt them more. Middle eastern countries are basically useless and can do nothing for themselves. Total sanctions would reduce them to a twefth century existence fairly quickly, the rest of the world could adapt.

Of course, there won't be total sanctions. China will still trade with them. I don't actually disapprove of that. They may well find that they end up a satrapy, and that the chinese are less inclined to grant them the largesse they currently experience from the west.

Is this situation with iran and the nuclear problem on the brink of another conflict or soaring oils prices, agen!? With some of the most powerful nations in the world ready to impose trade sanctions with iran would this hurt us or more or them? iran exports a hell of alot of oil which we are all using so if we stopped them exporting it then this would push up oil prices due to restricted supply. But there is also the very real threat that Iran would then be prepared to stop cargo ships in the area from transportin oil from countries like kuwait for example...Iran does not need to stop Kuwait Ships.. all they need to do is place their Missiles launchers and anti Air stuff by their Oils Fields and infrastructure.. That would destroy Iran Oil capability. And that would send the Oil Prices to Katrina levels.. but this time the prices will stay high..

China will not allow that to happen.. So that is why I keep saying:

"The road to Tehran goes trough Beijing" 2004-2006©OceanD

...China will still trade with them. I don't actually disapprove of that...and Beijing does not like the Idea of a Trade embargo.. Because that would force china to trade "Under the table" (like you are suggesting) But China hates that idea.

I have no doubt that at this point.. the US diplomats are making the very same proposition to Beijing.. at this point in time Washington needs to save face.

Trade?
if a War starts Iran will make sure thier Oil pipes, Fields, and everything Oil related is destroyed..

Just Why the hell do you think Russia and specially China keep stone walling ??

Because they like the Iranians? :rolleyes:

Russia and China recommended Iran to the UN Security Council. How is that stonewalling?

Saddam did the same thing with Kuwait as far as oil wells go - how long did that last? Not very.

Just Why the hell do you think Russia and specially China keep stone walling ??


1) There interests in the region.
2) The U.S. and the EU are for sanctions, so 'course they have to be against it - its what they do.

Russia and China recommended Iran to the UN Security Council. How is that stonewalling?Watch and see.. I will bump this in a couple of months.. you will see that we are still turning in circles..

Watch and see.. I will bump this in a couple of months.. you will see that we are still turning in circles..
It's only a matter of time.

Besides, the President of Iran announced that the 12th Imam is coming out of occultation in the next 2 years.

Since he and his ministers made a pledge to do whatever it takes to bring him out, we only have less than that amount of time to wait.

Once the nukes are set off by Iran, I'll be laughing at you.

and chine does not like the Idea of a Trade embargo.. Because that would force china to trade "Under the table" (like you are suggesting) But China hates that idea.

I have no doubt that at this point the US diplomats are making the very same proposition to Beijing.. at this point in time Washington needs to save face.

While they may not like the idea of an embargo, they also arn't idiots. The prospect of a Neculear Iran is frigtening even for them. They afterall dont just get oil from Iran but throughout the middle east including Quwait, Saudiarabia etc.. A neculear Iran shifts the power structure away from the Saudi's (realitivly peaceful and stable) which threatens to distabalize the entire region (far more devestating to oil production and prices). Why do you think both Russia and China refered them to the security council ?

Once the nukes are set off by Iran, I'll be laughing at you.or..

Once Iran does not set-off its newly acquired Nukes (like every other Country has done so far).. I will be laughing at You.

Besides, the President of Iran announced that the 12th Imam is coming out of occultation in the next 2 years.


The who's in the what now?

Dude, you'll have to explain that.

...Why do you think both Russia and China refered them to the security council ?because this situation makes them the ultimate Asian Power Brokers.. (remember NK?).. China still holds the cards in his hands..


There is a price for Beijing to lift its veto.. Washington will have to allow Beijing to buy some US Oil corps..

And this is the bottom line for Beijing: Washington will have to share Control of World Oil/energy.

Beijing wants/needs to secure that Oil/energy flow coming.. and the only way to secure that is "control".. Control that is mostly in Washington hands for now..
They need that energy/Oil to keep their economy afloat.

Iran is but just one piece of the World Chess game that is going to be played..

The who's in the what now?

Dude, you'll have to explain that.

It's Imam Mehdi. He was the successor to the Imamate (as opposed to the caliphate of sunnis) whom the caliph tried to kill and he supposedly went into hiding. Shia belief is that he is in occultation and will return to lead the righteous shias to victory and establish a kingdom of heaven (kinda like the Jesus returns thing).

All shias believe that he is in hiding for like 1200 years in this earth. Iranians are big on this thing.

It's Imam Mehdi. He was the successor to the Imamate (as opposed to the caliphate of sunnis) whom the caliph tried to kill and he supposedly went into hiding. Shia belief is that he is in occultation and will return to lead the righteous shias to victory and establish a kingdom of heaven (kinda like the Jesus returns thing).

All shias believe that he is in hiding for like 1200 years in this earth. Iranians are big on this thing.

Now I'm really confused. They beleive that everyone is mortal - more or less - and only allah is god, but this imam lived in hiding for 1200yrs?

That makes no sense.

Edit: Though if they actually provide a 1200 year old, I will renounce my atheism and convert. But he has to be actually 1200 yrs old, not some imam impersonator.

Now I'm really confused. They beleive that everyone is mortal - more or less - and only allah is god, but this imam lived in hiding for 1200yrs?

That makes no sense.

Edit: Though if they actually provide a 1200 year old, I will renounce my atheism and convert. But he has to be actually 1200 yrs old, not some imam impersonator.

Faith has no logic.

Imams are infallible and masoom (sinless). Allah willing, Imams can do anything...and remaining in occultation for 1200 years is a basic tenet of shia faith.

It is kinda interesting to study the martyr cult of shias. Almost all the 12 imams (well officially the 12th is in hiding) were killed (poisoned, stabbed, killed in war etc) by the sunni caliphs. They were the first victims of islamism.

Just rember the MAD motto Mutualy Assured Destruction.