NationStates Jolt Archive

Iran Ends Voluntary Cooperation on Nukes
TEHRAN, Sun Feb 5, 2006

Iran ended all voluntary cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency Sunday, saying it would start uranium enrichment and bar surprise inspections of its facilities after being reported to the Security Council over fears it is seeking an atomic bomb.

However, the Islamic republic left the door open for further negotiations over its nuclear program and, in an apparent softening of its position, said it was willing to discuss Moscow's proposal to shift large-scale enrichment operations to Russian territory in an effort to allay suspicions.
...
The announcement means Iran has resumed uranium enrichment and no longer will allow snap IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities, a voluntary measure it allowed in recent years in a goodwill gesture to build trust under a protocol to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060205/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_nuclear

Internationally speaking, Iran just "dropped the soap" in front of the world. I can't wait for the sequel to Shock and Awe.

Ok ok... I know - it's not often I stray into political threads like this... but I got to ask. How could the USA invade Iran? From what I've seen, it's not got the capability.

Firstly, it's outstretched as it is. It simply doesn't have the manpower to invade another country.

Secondly, and more importantly, Iran is a country that has elections - Possibly not the fairest, but I've not investigated it, I can't say. Simply put, you cannot "establish democracy" in a democratic country, as they will simply put the same people, or close analogues, back in office. Not to mention the insurgency, which this time would have a popular base to launch off of, would be several times more deadly than the Iraqi one.

If the USA was foolish enough to invade, it could not win in any practical sense.

Ok ok... I know - it's not often I stray into political threads like this... but I got to ask. How could the USA invade Iran? From what I've seen, it's not got the capability.

Firstly, it's outstretched as it is. It simply doesn't have the manpower to invade another country.

Secondly, and more importantly, Iran is a country that has elections - Possibly not the fairest, but I've not investigated it, I can't say. Simply put, you cannot "establish democracy" in a democratic country, as they will simply put the same people, or close analogues, back in office. Not to mention the insurgency, which this time would have a popular base to launch off of, would be several times more deadly than the Iraqi one.

If the USA was foolish enough to invade, it could not win in any practical sense.


Oh, invade no. But bomb and destroy the entire governmental and industrial infrastructure - put out the lights, the water, the bridges and roads, the airports, and destroy every obviously military target and obvious nuclear weapons plant - that's easily done in a few weeks with conventional US weapons with no US casualties.

Or, we have a Trident submarine pull within range of Iran and turn the place into a smoking ruin in 20 minutes - dead from one end to the other.

The US has the capability to invade and hold Iran. It would take a massive call-up of reserve forces, and possibly a draft.

We would never have need to invade, however. Iran is a fairly Westernized country for that part fo the world, especially the citizenry. The best course of action would be to open up embargoes, wait a few years until the people of the country get used to McDonald's and plasma TVs, then let them vote in a more liberal government.

They are at least a year or two away from developing nuclear weapons, and even with them, they are capable only of either giving them to someone else, or of putting them on a Russian anti-shipping missile and hitting as far away as Israel. This is the real issue. Israel, and not without reason, simply WILL NOT ALLOW Iran to gain nuclear weapons. They are a small country surrounded by enemies, and have been at more or less an armed standoff with them since they were founded. Even under the worst odds, Israel WILL do their very best to destroy Iran's nuclear arsenal before it comes to fruition. This means, IIRC, overflying either enemy airspace, Saudi airspace, or Iraq. They will be detected in advance if they overfly enemy airspace, the Saudi's arent' exactly friendly themselves, and wouldn't allow it, and the US doesn't want to get involved yet. If Israel goes ahead anyhow, I hope they will get support from US forces. At the very least, their F-15s will have to either land or aerial refuel in Iraq for the return trip. With refueling, All of Iran is in reach of Israel's conventional forces.

If the US does anything, its will be a small-scale attack, followed by diplomatic posturing. We have no will to take and hold all that land. We have no stomach for the casualties we would take. A few Durandals(rocket assisted ground-penetrating bombs) on their installations is all we'll do. IF there is a large-scale attack on American soil, expect tactical nuclear weapons to be used instead of conventional bombs.

To date, America is the only nation on Earth to use nuclear weapons in anger. I believe many in the Arab world believe we would do it again, because we have done it before. We aren't the only ones. France has officially stated that if there is a large-scale attack, it would be met with nuclear weapons.

Anyhow, I suppose I shoudl get off the toilet and get ready for work, so g'day everyone, I'll try to get back online tonight and educate you all some more :)

Well, what to do? Honestly, full out attacking Iran would be counterproductive at this point, and sanctions would probably just make the situation worse simply because they wouldn't be effective enough to stop Iran's enrichment program (not to mention it would radicalize a lot of people who lose their jobs due to economic collapse).

We should probably wait a little while and see what Iran's response to the Russian offer of enrichment is. If that is successful, the problem is pretty much solved. However, if they refuse and continue with enrichment and the barring of IAEA inspectors from their sites, military strikes (like Israel did in the 1980's) may be necessary to stop the program.

Oh, invade no. But bomb and destroy the entire governmental and industrial infrastructure - put out the lights, the water, the bridges and roads, the airports, and destroy every obviously military target and obvious nuclear weapons plant - that's easily done in a few weeks with conventional US weapons with no US casualties.

Or, we have a Trident submarine pull within range of Iran and turn the place into a smoking ruin in 20 minutes - dead from one end to the other.


Yes, unfortunately your second option ends the world. That's the thing about nukes. Fallout doesn't stay still, and carpet nuking a country will leave a lot. Not to mention that the US having the gall to use nuclear weapons against a nation that presents no threat... Erm, just no.

Not to mention that the first option simply permanently alienates and causes you generations of problems in the middle east. Both of your "solutions" would be highly destructive and simply present more of a problem to the USA in the long run.

Unless you wish to confirm some peoples stereotypes of the USA as a malignant superpower that doesn't care a whit for anyone out of its borders?

Yes, unfortunately your second option ends the world. That's the thing about nukes. Fallout doesn't stay still, and carpet nuking a country will leave a lot. Not to mention that the US having the gall to use nuclear weapons against a nation that presents no threat... Erm, just no.

Not to mention that the first option simply permanently alienates and causes you generations of problems in the middle east. Both of your "solutions" would be highly destructive and simply present more of a problem to the USA in the long run.

Unless you wish to confirm some peoples stereotypes of the USA as a malignant superpower that doesn't care a whit for anyone out of its borders?


Under my solution, I'd wait until Iran threatens anyone with nukes, or uses them.

Under my solution, I'd wait until Iran threatens anyone with nukes, or uses them.

I don't think they would...one of the biggest concerns would be their inability to properly secure the HEU once they produced it. Even if they had no intention whatsoever of selling it to terrorists or using the nuclear material in weapons, there would still be the risk of it being stolen or misappropriated due to poor security.

I don't think they would...one of the biggest concerns would be their inability to properly secure the HEU once they produced it. Even if they had no intention whatsoever of selling it to terrorists or using the nuclear material in weapons, there would still be the risk of it being stolen or misappropriated due to poor security.

Hmm...

Aside from overlooking the Iranian President's comments on "wiping" Israel off the map...

The man in charge of hoodwinking the Western powers about Iran's now 18-year-old secret nuclear program believes the apocalypse will happen in his own lifetime. He'll be 50 in October.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Shi'ite creed has convinced him lesser mortals can not only influence but hasten the awaited return of the 12th Imam, known as the Mahdi. Iran's dominant "Twelver" sect holds this will be Muhammad ibn Hasan, the righteous descendant of the Prophet Muhammad. He is said to have gone into "occlusion" in the 9th century, at age 5. His return will be preceded by cosmic chaos, war, bloodshed and pestilence. After this cataclysmic confrontation between the forces of good and evil, the Mahdi will lead the world to an era of universal peace.
"The ultimate promise of all Divine religions," says Ahmadinejad, "will be fulfilled with the emergence of a perfect human being [the 12th Imam], who is heir to all prophets. He will lead the world to justice and absolute peace. Oh mighty Lord, I pray to you to hasten the emergence of your last repository, the promised one." He reckons the return of the Imam, AWOL for 11 centuries, is only two years away.
Mr. Ahmadinejad is close to the messianic Hojjatieh Society, which is governed by the conviction the 12th Imam's return will be hastened by "the creation of chaos on Earth."
When he became Iran's sixth president since the 1979 revolution last summer, Mr. Ahmadinejad decided to donate $20 million to the Jamkaran mosque, a popular pilgrimage site where the faithful can drop their missives to the "Hidden Imam" in a holy well. Tehran's working-class faithful are convinced the new president and his Cabinet signed a "compact" pledging themselves to precipitate the return of the Mahdi -- and dropped it down Jamkaran's well with the Mahdi's zip code.

Oh, invade no. But bomb and destroy the entire governmental and industrial infrastructure - put out the lights, the water, the bridges and roads, the airports, and destroy every obviously military target and obvious nuclear weapons plant - that's easily done in a few weeks with conventional US weapons with no US casualties.

Or, we have a Trident submarine pull within range of Iran and turn the place into a smoking ruin in 20 minutes - dead from one end to the other.
Oh, I see. And there I was thinking America was any better. Wiping Israel off the map, wiping Iran off the map, same project, different skin colour. :rolleyes:

Good to see you share your true opinions at last. :)

I think Iran has made the right choice here what its saying is "go ahead find something to invade us for" since the U.N will have no chance to make any kind of sanction with the support of Russia and China combined with every nation saying “nuclear power is illegal?” I also doubt Israel will be too ready to pick a fight since as soon as they go it alone they will be in for a bloody conflict with numerous sanctions followed by there allies deserting them.

If any sanction would occur Iran will live comfortably for years with there vast stockpiles of resources and huge connections after all its not like Iran hasn’t stood alone before

If war would occur then it would end up as the most bloody conflict in years Iran is not to be under-estimated they have already fought a war completely alone for nearly 8 years (the longest conventional warfare of the 20th century and cost 1 million casualties and $US 1.19 Trillion) and the revolutionary zeal of Iran would spark once again if Iran become cornered

Furthermore Iran has never had too good a ride with the U.N Iraq has used chemical weapons with almost no U.N response and U.N nations have never been too friendly with Iran so the trust isn't there

I'm not looking forward to this, and I think we all understand where this will go. Iran will get sufficiently close to developing an atomic weapon that the Israelis will resort to their most basic instincts and go for it. I'd imagine that most likely surgical conventional strikes are what they'd use.

Although I wouldn't rule out the possibility that they'd launch nuclear strikes against the most heavily defended positions. Perhaps decapitation strikes would occur against Tehran, but I wouldn't be entirely certain.

God, I don't like the road down which this leads.

http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b283/jtkwon/funnynuke.jpg

Internationally speaking, Iran just "dropped the soap" in front of the world. I can't wait for the sequel to Shock and Awe.

Well, I can.
I don´t like terrorism. State sponsored or not.

Internationally speaking, Iran just "dropped the soap" in front of the world. I can't wait for the sequel to Shock and Awe.

You need help

This is going to get messy.

Very much so. Either Israel will slam them hard with conventional weapons before Iran gest Nuclear weapons, In which case Iran respond in kind. After all, they already have missiles that can do that.

Or Israel arse up and make the attack a few days too late and Iran shoots back with the shiny new mushroom makers.

Or America does the same. Now, the US is out of range of Iranian missiles (for the moment, but it would not suprise me if they are working on getting some ICBM's to go with their warheads) And Iran takes out several southern European places witrh conventional weapons upon which everyone invades Iran and it all goes even further to shit than it already is.


I can't see a good way forward here.

Has anyone considered the idea that Iran may well be genuinely enriching uranium for energy purposes?

Has anyone considered the idea that Iran may well be genuinely enriching uranium for energy purposes?

No. Consider the development of the Shahab-3 missile, which has a range suitable to hit Israel, and has no other practical use other than to carry a nuclear warhead - any conventional warhead would be far too small and far too inaccurate - and the warhead is far too small for a chemical warhead.

The Iranian President's statements that he wants to "wipe Israel off the map". Or his statements that he wants to help bring about the return of the 12th Imam by inciting chaos.

Ok, you're probably someone like Chamberlain, who thought that it would be a good idea to negotiate with Hitler...

US have nuclear power. Russia have nuclear power. France have nuclear power. so why the hell can't Iran have it?
US used it once oh, twice at one time... (once they use, it's probable they will abuse)
did US have any punuisment for that? did UN take away nuclear bombs?
absolutely no!!!

Considering that North Korea has nuclear weapons, and essentially extorts "humanitarian aid" from the United States to refrain from using them against S. Korea or Japan, I don't blame Iran for trying to aquire Nuclear Weapons. If Iraq actually HAD WMD's, the US wouldn't have even considered invading.

Think about the history of Iran here for a second; they had a democratically elected leader who wanted to nationalize the oil industry, who was subsequently sacked by a western backed leader. This leader was subsequently overthrown by Islamic Revolution. This in turn prompted backing by the west for an Iraqi invasion of Iran. (And if you don't believe that, ask yourself why Saddam's trial isn't being held at the Hague, under public scrutiny.)

Therefore, while the US is stretched thin, Iran realizes that NOW is the chance they need to aquire a Nuclear Deterrant.

Incidentally, American invasion or attack against Iran would be foolhardy, because there would be very little support in the US for a draft, and any sort of attack would jeapordize the lives of American soldiers staged in Iraq. Also, with the price of oil increasingly getting worse, Iran holds a big economic stick to wield.

Of course, I don't think anyone is giving the Bush administration any points for intelligence.