NationStates Jolt Archive

Are ya'll here in fear of the supposedly imminent epidemic, or do you think its one of those things that the media blows out of proportion so that people will be in fear? (I think the theory is that they try to creat fear because it makes people consume more)

It does seem to be a serious issue...but honestly, at least at the moment, i am not very afraid. probably because i am young and healthy and upper middle class...seems like something that wont effect me too much... then again i could be very wrong

Are ya'll here in fear of the supposedly imminent epidemic, or do you think its one of those things that the media blows out of proportion so that people will be in fear? (I think the theory is that they try to creat fear because it makes people consume more)

I think it's definitely something to watch carefully, but not to panic over or completely blow off. You can never really be too careful when it comes to things like threats of epidemic. If it happens, and you're ready for it, that's good. If it doesn't happen, but you were still ready, that's still great! Most people really don't want an epidemic. If it happens and you aren't ready, you're somewhat screwed.

I suspect that at least some of it is the media scare-mongering. SARS and BSE came to very little (in this part of the world anyway) but the British media went on and on about them in the same way they're going on about bird flu.

However, I do think there's certainly a risk and governments should make provisions. Much better to be safe than sorry when it comes to things like this.

H5N1 is similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu. Humans are not ready for any bird-derived nasty-high-morality-rate flu at any time.

The Bird Flu

No, it didn't. Look, it's still there on the branch, see?

Are ya'll here in fear of the supposedly imminent epidemic, or do you think its one of those things that the media blows out of proportion so that people will be in fear? (I think the theory is that they try to creat fear because it makes people consume more)

YET another thing vegetarians don't have to care about. or even think about. or know about. i just don't care. :p

I think it's going to hit the developing world hard, but will be much lighter on the developed world, simply because the level of health technology today is far greater than it was in 1918. Also, the developed world hasn't had its quality of life or food supply severely damaged by a major war (like WWI).

I think (obviously) Asia's going to get hit worst in the Third World, followed by South American nations and then Africa least worst.

H5N1 is similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu. Humans are not ready for any bird-derived nasty-high-morality-rate flu at any time.
bah 1918 was H1N1. anything after that is nothing.

Vegetarianistica']YET another thing vegetarians don't have to care about. or even think about. or know about. i just don't care. :p

What the heck are you on about? Being a vegetarian does not suddenly make you immune to a virus.

bah 1918 was H1N1. anything after that is nothing.

I don't know. You caught H5N1 lately?

What the heck are you on about? Being a vegetarian does not suddenly make you immune to a virus.

perhaps not, but not having it around me and not consuming it surely helps. if not, all the more reason to reside within the borders of Vegetarianistica until it all blows over. :)

The "Bird Flu" is nonsense. And it is most certainly not going to be a pandemic. Less than 70 people world-wide have died from what APPEARS to be a form of bird flu. 70 people! It is not a major problem.

More people die every year from the simple flu in the U.S. alone, than the bird flu has ever killed in total.

IMHO

The "Bird Flu" is nonsense. And it is most certainly not going to be a pandemic. Less than 70 people world-wide have died from what APPEARS to be a form of bird flu. 70 people! It is not a major problem.

More people die every year from the simple flu in the U.S. alone, than the bird flu has ever killed in total.

IMHO

Although this is something that you should not really worry about since it has not become infectious, you cannot say that the pandemic possibility is nonsense. If you look at the current figures, there are 152 confirmed cases and 83 deaths. And I say CONFIRMED not "APPEARS". That is a mortality rate that is greather than 50%, if this became a pandemic, there goes a big chunk of the population. Sure more people die of the flu every year but what is the percentage? I'm pretty sure the figure for the regular flu is WELL BELOW 50%. That is the main reason why people are worried if the Avian Flu becomes a pandemic.

I'm not scared...well with the current people in power, I am, but I'm not that scared.

The "Bird Flu" is nonsense. And it is most certainly not going to be a pandemic. Less than 70 people world-wide have died from what APPEARS to be a form of bird flu. 70 people! It is not a major problem.

More people die every year from the simple flu in the U.S. alone, than the bird flu has ever killed in total.

IMHO

It's not your average normal flu.

From http://www.doh.gov.ph/bird_flu.htm

8. What are the signs and symptoms of bird flu in humans?

Bird flu is very similar to other influenza viruses. Initial symptoms are :

Fever
Muscle weakness and/or pain
Sore throat and cough
Sore eyes (conjunctivitis) is seen in some patients
Causes of death and complications are:
Severe viral pneumonia
Respiratory distress syndrome
Multi- organ failure

I think it's something we need to prepare for with all seriousness and have plans and contingencies in place.

I think we also need to stop panicking and get some of our facts straight. For the Bird Flu to become a pandemic, these things must occur:

1. A person must contract it from a bird (difficult but it does happen)
2. That aquired virus must mutate to be human to human transmissable (Not impossible, but hardly a likely occurance either)
3. That person must transmit the disease (If one and two are met this is fairly likely, but hardly guaranteed
4. The disease must not be addequately quarentined/cut off (Once again, if the case occurs in a city, it's nearly impossible to contain, but in a rural setting, transmission will be slower and therefore easier to contain).

Altogether, possible, and something to worry about, but also not some "guarenteed within the next 5 years" occurance or anything. Simply put, plan for, prepare for, and try to counteract the avian flu, but also don't spend your time pulling your hair out.

Actually, according to several professors I have talked to at my school, the mutation to Person-Person transmission is just a matter of time. Then, we have our pandemic.

Actually, according to several professors I have talked to at my school, the mutation to Person-Person transmission is just a matter of time. Then, we have our pandemic.

Do you mean that the mutation is "guaranteed" to happen for some reason. If so, could you explain?

Vegetarianistica']perhaps not, but not having it around me and not consuming it surely helps. if not, all the more reason to reside within the borders of Vegetarianistica until it all blows over. :)

Not eating poultry will make next to no difference, cooked poultry is almost completely safe, the thing you'll get it from is the sick pigeon that just flew over your house, leaving a trail of infected bird poo.

Do you mean that the mutation is "guaranteed" to happen for some reason. If so, could you explain?

No one knows how likely it is. Until the precise gene that mutates to cause airborne transmission between humans is discovered, it is impossible to say what the odds are that the virus will mutate.

At any rate, it has happened once before (Spanish Flu) so odds are that the odds aren't too high to ignore it. If that makes sense.

It has to do with mathematical probability; if the probability is one to fifty trillion, then the virus will probably mutate once every fifty trillion replications. Of course, then there's the problem of getting a human to catch that particular one in fifty trillion virus.

A downside, I suppose, would be that until the mutated virus is caught by a human, there would be no selective pressure AGAINST it (although no one really knows for sure, I guess), meaning that it could become widespread in the bird population (among the total birds that have the flu, that is, which the authorities are attempting to reduce) before it jumps species. Ok, NOW I don't really have a clue about what I'm talking about.

I heard somewhere that it's virulence would decrease as it mutated, is that true or just wishful thinking?

It does seem to be a serious issue...but honestly, at least at the moment, i am not very afraid. probably because i am young and healthy and upper middle class...seems like something that wont effect me too much... then again i could be very wrong
You know it's deadlier for young and healthy than for older people.

Actually, according to several professors I have talked to at my school, the mutation to Person-Person transmission is just a matter of time. Then, we have our pandemic.
Usually, when a virus mutates so that it spreads more easily it also becomes less deadly. More common -> milder symptoms

Although this is something that you should not really worry about since it has not become infectious, you cannot say that the pandemic possibility is nonsense. If you look at the current figures, there are 152 confirmed cases and 83 deaths. And I say CONFIRMED not "APPEARS". That is a mortality rate that is greather than 50%, if this became a pandemic, there goes a big chunk of the population. Sure more people die of the flu every year but what is the percentage? I'm pretty sure the figure for the regular flu is WELL BELOW 50%. That is the main reason why people are worried if the Avian Flu becomes a pandemic.
It is 83 death of a 152 confirmed cases. The unknown in this is how many people did contract it and didn't get reported due to only having a mild case.
Those people are the scary ones since they can work as a typhoid mary incase it becomes airborne.

I heard somewhere that it's virulence would decrease as it mutated, is that true or just wishful thinking?
It boils down to how fast does the virus immunize/kill of it's host. If it is faster then that new hosts present it self it will die out unless it's virulence gets toned down. If the pool of hosts replenishes itself faster then the virus can immunize/kill the hosts a new more virulent strain can survive.
But generally the mutation to become airborne reduces lethality.

One thing. I don't trust the figures provided by the Chinese government for bird flu cases as they tend to hide the real problem behind "lesser" figures.

As far as I can tell, the only way you can catch the thing is to near enough fornicate with a bird that has it, so I'm not all that worried. I also like hiding behind several thousand miles of ocean between me and the rest of the world. Maybe the bird flu wont notice me down here?

As far as I can tell, the only way you can catch the thing is to near enough fornicate with a bird that has it, so I'm not all that worried. I also like hiding behind several thousand miles of ocean between me and the rest of the world. Maybe the bird flu wont notice me down here?

Yes, but the concern is that it will mutate into a form that can be passed from human to human in the same way as regular flu, as we have no immunity to it it could spark a pandemic.

Humans are not ready for any bird-derived nasty-high-morality-rate flu at any time.
It's so high-morality it will only kill people already in death row. :)

Usually, when a virus mutates so that it spreads more easily it also becomes less deadly. More common -> milder symptoms
It's also because for a virus killing the host so fast is mostly an accident, since that also kills the virus before it has any chance to spread. After a while the virus evolves into a form that's less lethal.

Actually, according to several professors I have talked to at my school, the mutation to Person-Person transmission is just a matter of time. Then, we have our pandemic.
If there's continous contact with humans there's a very high probability that it will mutate into a person-person disease. What's being done to keep this from happening is to sistematically kill the flocks of domestic animals who present the virus. Farmers would be compensated, of course, that's what the money agreed to in the last summit is for. By being constrained only to wild animals, the virus mutates away from a human disease.

all i read was the first page but are all u guys like over 20 or somethhing cuz im only 11

all i read was the first page but are all u guys like over 20 or somethhing cuz im only 11

I don't know about the others but I'm 17.

As far as I can tell, the only way you can catch the thing is to near enough fornicate with a bird that has it, so I'm not all that worried. I also like hiding behind several thousand miles of ocean between me and the rest of the world. Maybe the bird flu wont notice me down here?

Won't help. The incubation time of H5N1 is long enough that there is a possibility that carriers of it are already in a large city near you by the time they discover that it has become airborne.

Well, I'm young, have a healthy immune system and eat properly, I'm pretty sure my body can handle it. I don't see any elderly relatives or people with compromised immune systems on a regular basis so I'm not worried about infecting other people either.

The only people who are generally at risk are the elderly, infants and those with compromised immune systems. The one in 1918 wiped out a lot of people because of the war more than anything, stress and malnutrition tend to fuck up the immune system.

The only people who are generally at risk are the elderly, infants and those with compromised immune systems. The one in 1918 wiped out a lot of people because of the war more than anything, stress and malnutrition tend to fuck up the immune system.
Quite the opposite. A strong immune system attacks H5N1 so effectively that it (the immune system) causes severe lung infections, lungs are filled with fluid and scar tissue which can eventually lead to suffocation.

it's the end of the world. i knew it!

Vegetarianistica']it's the end of the world. i knew it!

No, Fiddlebottoms himself has decreed that the world shall not end until giant, radioactive, jewish space-badgers crash into the Earth.

Usually, when a virus mutates so that it spreads more easily it also becomes less deadly. More common -> milder symptoms

Is that fact? I wasnt aware of that. At least a little good news, if correct.

My concerns are many people will have it and not seek treatment soon enough, thinking its a standard virus-spreading it as they go.

Others will have standard viruses and panic, clogging health care people and spreading resources too thin.