NationStates Jolt Archive

COMMENTARY: Perhaps there's a bright side on all this - it's just an extra bit of incentive to develop alternative energy sources. At least we can hope. Sigh.


Skyrocketing oil costs feared in nuke standoff


By John Zarocostas
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
January 24, 2006

GENEVA -- The price of crude oil could reach $131 a barrel if Iran stopped production amid the standoff over Tehran's decision to resume uranium enrichment, a global market study predicts.

Oil prices topped $69 a barrel yesterday on supply fears over the nuclear standoff.

Iran supplies about 4 million barrels a day, or 5 percent of the world's oil supply, said William F. Browder, chief executive officer of Moscow-based Hermitage Capital Management.

The former Wall Street investment banker said the market-scenario study -- based on an analysis that factored in seven supply shocks in the past 35 years -- had an 81 percent accuracy in predicting the price.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Iran relies heavily on oil exports for foreign-exchange revenue and government budget. Oil exports account for 80 percent to 90 percent of export revenue and 40 percent to 50 percent of the nation's budget.

The agency estimates that Iranian oil export revenues last year increased by 45 percent to $46.6 billion and are projected to edge to $50.1 billion this year.

However, oil market analysts and international security specialists tracking the escalation in the crisis between Iran and Western powers downplayed the prospects of the United Nations slapping sanctions on the country or of Iran opting to cut off oil exports in retaliation anytime soon.

An official with the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which includes the United States, stressed that its member countries are holding "well above" the average amount of 90 days' supply of oil import demand.

The agency released stocks after Hurricane Katrina temporarily crippled U.S. oil refinery production capacity and supply flow.

The analysts said that the tensions in Iran and in other volatile geopolitical spots such as Venezuela, Iraq and Nigeria already are factored in the market and that the price is unlikely to hit new highs but would oscillate by about $10.

Some Western security analysts see the buildup in tensions as "more a war of words" and expect it to stay at that level until the meeting of the governing board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the global nuclear watchdog, in Vienna, Austria, on Feb. 2.

Yesterday, in a setback for efforts by the U.S. and the European Union, the IAEA chief ruled out advancing a wide-ranging report on the issue in time for the Feb. 2 meeting.

It's OBVIOUSLY Bush's fault! I say fry him! ;)

On a serious note though, I don't think Iran is dumb enough to do it, considering they'll go broke if they don't sell oil. Then how will they build Nukes?

It's OBVIOUSLY Bush's fault! I say fry him! ;)

On a serious note though, I don't think Iran is dumb enough to do it, considering they'll go broke if they don't sell oil. Then how will they build Nukes?
Lately they seem to thing they're invincible. Their President has been making all sorts of wild statements: relocate the entire nation of Israel, Israel has no right to exist, the Holocaust never happened, rejecting veiled Israeli warnings with a wave of his hand, basically telling the UN to go frack itself, on and on.

I think that they may already have the atomic bomb. Either that, or they've formed a secret alliance of some sort with either Russia or China. Something is prompting this brash display of bravado.

*looks at stock in solar technology companies.*

Mwahahahahaha!!!!

I guess it's about the same price in the US as it is in Canada...


STOP BITCHING! It's still half as expensive as it is over the Atlantic. Suck it up...

(no wait.... don't suck it up)

It's OBVIOUSLY Bush's fault! I say fry him! ;)

On a serious note though, I don't think Iran is dumb enough to do it, considering they'll go broke if they don't sell oil. Then how will they build Nukes?
They'll still sell oil to China regardless of any sanctions.

well even is gas prices soar everything is pretty close in savannah to it won't hurt me too much. ok maybe a little, no beach time for me.

More good oil news!

Kuwait's oil reserves are only half of what the Kuwaiti regime previously stated according to OPEC.


http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nL20548125&imageid=&cap=

MAD worked for the US and USSR, who's to say it wouldn't work for Iran and Israel? There's more chance of nukes being used when only one side has them, and right now only one side has them. Never mind that it's the side we insist on fellating with our tax dollars, it still represents a situation where one side couldn't retaliate if the other went nuclear. And I don't trust Israel not to go nuclear.

MAD worked for the US and USSR, who's to say it wouldn't work for Iran and Israel? There's more chance of nukes being used when only one side has them, and right now only one side has them. Never mind that it's the side we insist on fellating with our tax dollars, it still represents a situation where one side couldn't retaliate if the other went nuclear. And I don't trust Israel not to go nuclear.
Here's why it won't work. Neither the USA nor the USSR believed as an article of faith that dying in the process of killing one's enemies was a guarantee of reaching paradise. Iran's brand of Islam does believe that. You can't have MAD when one side doesn't really mind being destroyed.

Luckily for the US, we do not get our oil from Iran.

Luckily for the US, we do not get our oil from Iran.
That doesn't matter. Other nations do get oil from Iran. If prevented from buying Iranian oil they won't just shut down their roads and industries, they'll buy oil from other suppliers in direct competition with us. The laws of supply and demand will kick in and raise our oil prices.

I watched a program on ABC (Australia) suggesting we have hit maximum oil production. It was part of the science show Catalyst so it would appear to be reputable. The next few decades are going to see some major change.

As for Iran they can't afford to cut oil supplies, it will remove the only reason the US and the EU have for not smacking its bitch ass up.

China will buy anything from anyone so Iran will still be able to sell some oil.

I don't see a collaberation happening between Russia and Iran happening, the Russian government seems to like radical Islam as much as ex soviet states shifting to the west, only in this case the west condones Russia bombing the fuck out of them.

I shudder in advance for the fuel I will be buying. It hurts just refilling a 2 litre 4 cyldinder, on the other hand I will laugh at all the knobs who have SUVs, before slashing their tyres for using all the fuel.

On a very cynical note I say we ignore the Arab and Persians and go take all their oil. They haven't been doing anythign useful with the revenue anyway unless you consider weapon building programs or massive palaces for royalty useful.

Lately they seem to thing they're invincible. Their President has been making all sorts of wild statements: relocate the entire nation of Israel, Israel has no right to exist, the Holocaust never happened, rejecting veiled Israeli warnings with a wave of his hand, basically telling the UN to go frack itself, on and on.

I think that they may already have the atomic bomb. Either that, or they've formed a secret alliance of some sort with either Russia or China. Something is prompting this brash display of bravado.

So? Bush made all sort of proposterous statements, he basically told the UN to go frack itself (mmm wasn't the UN useless?), and he actually bombed a country on those preposterous assumptions of his.

Even if they have an atomic bomb NOW, which I doubt, they still need - taraaa - a deploy mechanism. How many years would it take for them to miniaturize a nuke to be able to put it in one of their rockets?

And for your information, they don't need a secret alliance. Iran signed a deal to sell oil for China in front of everybody. Not in hell are the Chinese allow their oil pit get bombed.

And for your information, they don't need a secret alliance. Iran signed a deal to sell oil for China in front of everybody. Not in hell are the Chinese allow their oil pit get bombed.

What could China do besides flood the world ecconomy with US currency, which would undermine its own ecconomy or impose a self destroying embago on the US?

Besides the devastating effect of angry communist rhetoric of course.
Curse those Imperial pig dogs and their bugousie ways!

Of course China would probably pay off Eurasia and build a pipeline through the "stans" to get the "pwecious oil which wightly bewongs in the glouris peoples wepublic"

That doesn't matter. Other nations do get oil from Iran. If prevented from buying Iranian oil they won't just shut down their roads and industries, they'll buy oil from other suppliers in direct competition with us. The laws of supply and demand will kick in and raise our oil prices.

Yep Yep. Your right. Or on the flip side, it could also get those nations off their butts and actually do something to help themselves for once.

What could China do besides flood the world ecconomy with US currency, which would undermine its own ecconomy or impose a self destroying embago on the US?


If seen the interesting argument that this hype of Iran's threat is mostly due to them starting to sell their oil in exchange of Euros.

*looks at stock in solar technology companies.*

Mwahahahahaha!!!!
Hehehe! Good move! :D

well even is gas prices soar everything is pretty close in savannah to it won't hurt me too much. ok maybe a little, no beach time for me.
Guess I'll have to drag my mountain bike back out. Sure don't want anymore broken legs though. :eek:

MAD worked for the US and USSR, who's to say it wouldn't work for Iran and Israel? There's more chance of nukes being used when only one side has them, and right now only one side has them. Never mind that it's the side we insist on fellating with our tax dollars, it still represents a situation where one side couldn't retaliate if the other went nuclear. And I don't trust Israel not to go nuclear.
Uh ... how about because leaders ( and most of the people! ) in the Middle East aren't totally rational? Ya THINK? :headbang:

Uh ... how about because leaders ( and most of the people! ) in the Middle East aren't totally rational? Ya THINK? :headbang:

Looking over the history of the Cold War..... that statement applies there too you know!

People aren't always rational.

Doesn't matter where they're from!

What could China do besides flood the world ecconomy with US currency, which would undermine its own ecconomy or impose a self destroying embago on the US?

Besides the devastating effect of angry communist rhetoric of course.
Curse those Imperial pig dogs and their bugousie ways!

Of course China would probably pay off Eurasia and build a pipeline through the "stans" to get the "pwecious oil which wightly bewongs in the glouris peoples wepublic"
Hehehe! Good point about China's economy being tied to the West.

Looking over the history of the Cold War..... that statement applies there too you know!

People aren't always rational.

Doesn't matter where they're from!
True, true. However, some peoples iz more irrational than other peoples, to twist a phrase from Animal Farm. :)

If Iran doesn't sell oil to Europe, it'll turn to China. Easy enough, no need for discussion about that. And remember, oil is priced in US dollars, which means all oil, not just stuff coming out of Iran. So it will hurt the USA too, mind.

If Iran doesn't sell oil to Europe, it'll turn to China. Easy enough, no need for discussion about that. And remember, oil is priced in US dollars, which means all oil, not just stuff coming out of Iran. So it will hurt the USA too, mind.

For the second time in this thread.. in March of this year, Iran will start to sell oil in Euros. This will subtly commence to diminuish the almost imperial strenght the US has over the world through the dollar. Forget the Chinese, those are tied in a MAD, militarily and economically. But the Iranians can move in a way in which they can, without causing a huge collapse, start to undermine the strenght of the Dollar. This is not acceptable.

Last guy that tried this was Saddam. Iranians are next. Or perhaps not.

Uh ... how about because leaders ( and most of the people! ) in the Middle East aren't totally rational? Ya THINK? :headbang:

Whereas Americans, or any other country for that matter are the epitomy of being rational. E.g, Gun Control.

If Iran does that, China will be pissed. You know why? Because it makes all of their vast dollar reserves useless for buying oil. China has made some big ass oil investments in Iran, and both just love doing business with each other. I hardly see this happening.

And pray tell, do you think Europe will allow a dollar being traded for only € 0,50? I don't think so. If Iran does, it'll piss off a lot more countries over the world than just the USA and China.

*starts pricing solar shingles again*

The Americans also keep an aircraft carrier right off the Straits of Tiran, which is very persuasive.

http://www.changingworldtech.com/

http://www.mindfully.org/Energy/2004/Changing-World-Technologies4apr04.htm

*starts pricing solar shingles again*

I would suggest hydrogen fuel cell technology, not solar technology. In other words, Honda.

Whereas Americans, or any other country for that matter are the epitomy of being rational. E.g, Gun Control.
Oh I totally agree! Gun control IS irrational! :D

http://www.changingworldtech.com/

http://www.mindfully.org/Energy/2004/Changing-World-Technologies4apr04.htm
Huh? Seems to be just that one page with no other information or links! :(

If Iran does that, China will be pissed. You know why? Because it makes all of their vast dollar reserves useless for buying oil. China has made some big ass oil investments in Iran, and both just love doing business with each other. I hardly see this happening.

On the contrary, China will love to see that happen. Has someone correctly put it, the US has China grabbed by the balls in a most interesting way: There isnt a way China can screw the US without screwing itself in the process

BUT

If the dollar slowly, steadily and sustainabily starts losing strenght, they will be forced to buy Euros, or in other words, they will diverse their currency holdings, thus becoming far more independent of the US dollar.
And this isn't you will "hardly see happening". IT WILL HAPPEN.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GH26Dj01.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroeuro


And pray tell, do you think Europe will allow a dollar being traded for only € 0,50? I don't think so. If Iran does, it'll piss off a lot more countries over the world than just the USA and China.

In one word, yes. Why would Europe not want its currency to gain extra global strenght? The returns are alot higher than the prospective loss.

Huh? Seems to be just that one page with no other information or links! :(
Yeah, something seems to be wrong with their site. Check the second link for information on what this company does. Basically turns garbage into oil.

Portu, your post makes so little sense I'm not even going to address it. Sorry.

So? Bush made all sort of proposterous statements, he basically told the UN to go frack itself (mmm wasn't the UN useless?), and he actually bombed a country on those preposterous assumptions of his.

Even if they have an atomic bomb NOW, which I doubt, they still need - taraaa - a deploy mechanism. How many years would it take for them to miniaturize a nuke to be able to put it in one of their rockets?

And for your information, they don't need a secret alliance. Iran signed a deal to sell oil for China in front of everybody. Not in hell are the Chinese allow their oil pit get bombed.

well there WAS Saddam... reason enough.

Iran might have the big one... land war would be bad there, since those people are nuts (many, anyway)...

Off topic; Portu, I congratulate Portugal for electing a conservative leader. Being Spanish, I utterly despise Zapatero as our president, but oh well.

Eutrusca, your post makes so little sense I'm not even going to address it. Sorry.
S'ok. According to some on here, I never make sense. :D

I would suggest hydrogen fuel cell technology, not solar technology. In other words, Honda.

For my house? Nah.

Solar and/or wind. *nod*

Off topic; Portu, I congratulate Portugal for electing a conservative leader. Being Spanish, I utterly despise Zapatero as our president, but oh well.


O.o

Who told you he was a conservative?

Off topic; Portu, I congratulate Portugal for electing a conservative leader. Being Spanish, I utterly despise Zapatero as our president, but oh well.

Even canada elected a conservative leader :D

well there WAS Saddam... reason enough.

Iran might have the big one... land war would be bad there, since those people are nuts (many, anyway)...

A land war would be doubtful anyways; the United States, at this point neither has the support at home, the logistical capabilities, or the personnel capabilities to conduct themselves in not only a ground war, but in a war of occupation. So, no, that's never going to happen. What will happen is a covert war, and it's already happening - I wouldn't doubt that Mossad units are already operating in Iran. And of course, the U.S. administration would their head away, conviniently.

well there WAS Saddam... reason enough.

Iran might have the big one... land war would be bad there, since those people are nuts (many, anyway)...
Well, at the very least their leadership is certifiable.

If I were in change here in the US, I would fund the absolute hell outta the insurgency movement in Iran and try to give them more grief than they can handle!

since those people are nuts (many, anyway)...
Pot...kettle... ;)

S'ok. According to some on here, I never make sense. :DApologies, I meant Portu's inane post :)

A land war would be doubtful anyways; the United States, at this point neither has the support at home, the logistical capabilities, or the personnel capabilities to conduct themselves in not only a ground war, but in a war of occupation. So, no, that's never going to happen. What will happen is a covert war, and it's already happening - I wouldn't doubt that Mossad units are already operating in Iran. And of course, the U.S. administration would their head away, conviniently.
There have been Special Forces and Delta Force personnel boots-on-the-ground in Iran for quite some time now. BTW ... you didn't hear that from me! [ shifty eyes ] <_< >_>

O.o

Who told you he was a conservative?

Sorry, I mean progressive, centerist, as opposed to full blown socialism like PSOE.

Apologies, I meant Portu's inane post :)
LOL! Not a problem. My statement still stands. :D

For my house? Nah.

Solar and/or wind. *nod*

Sorry, I thought you mean in stock.

Portu, your post makes so little sense I'm not even going to address it. Sorry.

It would have been more polite if you had just admited you have no further arguments to debate.

It would have been more polite if you had just admited you have no further arguments to debate.That's one way how you can explain it, but I'll stick with the lack of content and thought of your post(s) in this thread.

That's one way how you can explain it, but I'll stick with the lack of content and thought of your post(s) in this thread.

Oh really? let me see: I posted my opinion, in which I corrected your lack of information, and posted facts, and you call it inane and without content? Then how do you call your own posts? Immense piles of arcane knowledge? lol.