NationStates Jolt Archive


Will Israel bomb Iran's nuclear weapons facilities this year?

Daistallia 2104
22-01-2006, 08:49
Israel has been getting ready for a military option against Iran's "supposed" nuclear weapons research facilities for a while now - purchasing US "bunker busters" and so forth.

Yesterday Israel's defense minister said "Israel will not be able to accept an Iranian nuclear capability and it must have the capability to defend itself, with all that that implies, and this we are preparing." He also said that diplomacy needs to run it's course first. link (http://apnews.myway.com//article/20060122/D8F9I9A00.html) However, it increasingly appears the main opponents are running out of diplomatic options.

My question is this: Do you think Israel will bomb Iran's nuclear weapons facilities this year?

Note: The question is not should but will. There have been more than enough run throughs of the various opinions on that question. Anyone bringing up the question of should, or attempting to discuss it here instead of on one of the aforementioned threads, shall be taunted by all and sundry for having poor reading comprehension skills!
Bretton
22-01-2006, 08:54
I have heard that the Iranians are procuring more modern antiaircraft technology from Russia, notably the powerhouse S-300 missile system, which is regarded as one of the most deadly threats to today's aircraft.

Regardless of which, I think they'd go for it if the opportunity presents itself. I doubt the Iranians will make it as easy as Osiraq, though...
The Nazz
22-01-2006, 08:55
Tough call. I personally have no idea, but it will be interesting to see if Thomas Friedman's theory about the flattening of the world economically stemming nation versus nation conflict has any juice.
DMG
22-01-2006, 08:55
I say no it wont. Too much pressure on it by the US and other western nations.
Southaustin
22-01-2006, 09:05
Israel won't, they have enough problems. The US will.
Electric grid, nuclear program related sites, communications infrastructure, military command and control centers.
"Shock and Awe" without the invasion. Operation Desert Fox without the "Wag the Dog" aspect.
Daistallia 2104
22-01-2006, 09:06
I don't know about that DMG. The US seems pretty tight with Israel on this one. The whole thing has the apperance of the US either helping Israel do something that the current administration believes is in it's best interest or pushing them to do it. There's the widely reported sale of bunker busters for example.
The Nazz
22-01-2006, 09:08
Israel won't, they have enough problems. The US will.
Electric grid, nuclear program related sites, communications infrastructure, military command and control centers.
"Shock and Awe" without the invasion. Operation Desert Fox without the "Wag the Dog" aspect.And how does China react against the US when China suffers energy difficulties because their chief foreign oil supplier has been bombed to hell and back? If there's any nation on earth with the power to fuck the US, it's China, especially economically.
Stone Bridges
22-01-2006, 09:10
If I was President, and Israel bombed Iran. I would tell them they are on their own now. No backing for Israel.
Kroisistan
22-01-2006, 09:11
They might indeed. I doubt America will do it as they really don't need a third war(course there's always the satisfaction of completeing the tic-tac-toe game they're playing with the middle east...). But Israel has been known to do crazy military shit before.

I certainly hope they won't though - see my shiny new sig for the why.
Stone Bridges
22-01-2006, 09:12
If they do, it'll be the start of WW III.
Liverbreath
22-01-2006, 09:15
Seems to me it should be the countries selling them the materials and technology that should put an end to it if Iran fails to live up to the conditions agreeded upon. If they fail to do so, then they should be isolated and considered a satellite government alligned with Iran.
Southaustin
22-01-2006, 09:17
Nazz:
I don't know for cetain but I read somewhere that the oil producing areas are primarily inhabited by Iranian Arabs and they are grumpy. Maybe some sort of help could be arranged so China will huff and puff but not blow the house down.
Daistallia 2104
22-01-2006, 09:23
Israel won't, they have enough problems. The US will.
Electric grid, nuclear program related sites, communications infrastructure, military command and control centers.
"Shock and Awe" without the invasion. Operation Desert Fox without the "Wag the Dog" aspect.

I have to agree with the Nazz and Kroisistan on this one - the US is spread close to the breaking point as it is, and wouldn't risk it unless there was more solid evidence (like an actual test - after all we haven't hit DPRK yet, and they have a more solid claim.)

But this does bring up the biggest question mark in my mind - does Israel have the assests to take out all of the Iranian sites? Or would they just settle for the major ones? Or possibly engage in a costly protracted airwar, which could easily spiral out of control.
Daistallia 2104
22-01-2006, 09:28
Seems to me it should be the countries selling them the materials and technology that should put an end to it if Iran fails to live up to the conditions agreeded upon. If they fail to do so, then they should be isolated and considered a satellite government alligned with Iran.

As per my OP, I now call on you to be taunted by all and sundry for having poor reading comprehension skills because you are attempting to discuss the should question and not the will question. :p
Genaia3
22-01-2006, 09:33
Whilst the Israeli defence minister did make those comments, he and other Israeli officials have repeatedly stated that any military action would be part of an international effort and have ruled out a unilateral strike. Anyway I think the Iranian situation is a long way from necessitating such a move.
Genaia3
22-01-2006, 09:34
If I was President, and Israel bombed Iran. I would tell them they are on their own now. No backing for Israel.

I doubt they'd need it.
Delator
22-01-2006, 09:35
Israel won't do anything just yet...they'll wait and see how things play out in the Security Council

Russia and China finally seem to be coming around to the idea that something actually needs to be done to resolve this situation. But until that actually amounts to something in the SC, Israel has to play the waiting game, or risk intitiating a conflict that will quickly escalate.
Liverbreath
22-01-2006, 09:35
As per my OP, I now call on you to be taunted by all and sundry for having poor reading comprehension skills because you are attempting to discuss the should question and not the will question. :p

You may not as if you will see by your edit time and my post time your conditions were not included until after I had read the OP, the follow up, and considered my absolutely correct response! ;)
BackwoodsSquatches
22-01-2006, 09:40
Unlikely.

Such a move, given the hotbed of tension that the middle east is in, it may indeed be interpereted as a strike against Islam itself.
As such, every nation with axes to grind against Isreal, could very well spark off a military conflict.
Isreal has no real friends in the Middle East, and would enevitably have to rely on the US, for support.As the US is up to its asshole in Iraq, this isnt a wise move, and Isreal knows it.

In fact, given the ever growing lack of support the war in Iraq is gaining, America may just be reluctant to proceed with another invasion and occupation, at the moment.
If so, Isreal needs to be prepared to have few allies.

Isreal cannot also claim the moral high ground, exactly, either.
The treatment of Palestinians, and building of walls, doesnt endear them to other nations. They may want to think about these actions, in case other more powerful nations become reluctant to assist the kind of undertaking a holy war would bring.
Sarasama
22-01-2006, 09:45
:mp5: Yes Israel will bomb that Nuke facility, and yes they will do it while the Bush Administration is still (thank God) in The White House.
And no, our Military is not spread out too thin to back Israel up.
Are Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan seriously try all out War against Israel again? Hell no.
But the aforementioned Nations do support the Terrorists. SO the LAST thing the Nation of Israel needs in their back yard is an Enemy Nation with Nukes.

Smurf China as far as I am concerned. In Fact, we Alaskans Do have our own concerns because, while everyone's attention is drawn to the Middle East, there are Korea, China and yes even Russia plotting to "take back" Alaska.
But that is for another Topic.

And these are, after all, just the opinions of a Serene Czarina of her own Nation State

HSC MaryAlice of Sarasama
Sarasama
22-01-2006, 09:51
P.S. There will be no need for boots on the ground invasion or occupation of Iran.
Simply bomb the Nuke facility to rubble and fly home.
Which, I know (because I am psychic and a student of Hebrew History) that Israel will do. This year.
"Never Again"

HSC MaryAlice of Sarasama
BackwoodsSquatches
22-01-2006, 09:53
P.S. There will be no need for boots on the ground invasion or occupation of Iran.
Simply bomb the Nuke facility to rubble and fly home.
Which, I know (because I am psychic and a student of Hebrew History) that Israel will do. This year.
"Never Again"

HSC MaryAlice of Sarasama


Pyschic, huh?

Im farting on you in effigy.
Kroisistan
22-01-2006, 09:54
:mp5: Yes Israel will bomb that Nuke facility, and yes they will do it while the Bush Administration is still (thank God) in The White House.
And no, our Military is not spread out too thin to back Israel up.
Are Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan seriously try all out War against Israel again? Hell no.
But the aforementioned Nations do support the Terrorists. SO the LAST thing the Nation of Israel needs in their back yard is an Enemy Nation with Nukes.

Smurf China as far as I am concerned. In Fact, we Alaskans Do have our own concerns because, while everyone's attention is drawn to the Middle East, there are Korea, China and yes even Russia plotting to "take back" Alaska.
But that is for another Topic.

And these are, after all, just the opinions of a Serene Czarina of her own Nation State

HSC MaryAlice of Sarasama

P.S. There will be no need for boots on the ground invasion or occupation of Iran.
Simply bomb the Nuke facility to rubble and fly home.
Which, I know (because I am psychic and a student of Hebrew History) that Israel will do. This year.
"Never Again"

HSC MaryAlice of Sarasama


And this is why we tell people not to post when they're high.:p
Daistallia 2104
22-01-2006, 09:56
You may not as if you will see by your edit time and my post time your conditions were not included until after I had read the OP, the follow up, and considered my absolutely correct response! ;)

Nope. You clearly read it before I edited it, so you know the edit was to add the post, not the condition. You can console yourself by helping to do the same to Stone Bridges for his (?) "If I were the president..." post
Sarasama
23-01-2006, 06:15
Pyschic, huh?

Im farting on you in effigy.


:gundge: You are not. NEVER try to lie to a Psychic!

HSC MaryAlice :p
Sarasama
23-01-2006, 06:18
And this is why we tell people not to post when they're high.:p

:p So, man, like, uh, why are you posting?
Our Serene Republic is famous for it's chips and dips. If you are as hungry as you are high, may I offer you an extra large portion? :D

HSC MaryAlice of Sarasama