NationStates Jolt Archive

Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's leader, has made Pakistan into a nuclear power. He has not, however, crushed the radical islamist elements in his country. They have made attempts on his life, and comprise a large, well motivated, and well armed group in his country striving for ever greater power.

If Musharraf is ever removed from power it seems likely to me that the Bin Laden sympathizers in his nation will take over and will inherit his nuclear arsenal. With it they will inevitably target the US, India, and Israel. Possibly European nations as well.

So has Musharraf made a nuclear war inevitable?

There'sa big difference between having an atomic bomb and getting it exactly where you want it to blow up. India, maybe. Isreal? Unikely. America? I don't really think it's a credible threat.

Unless it's smuggled into the country in a crate of Wal-mart goods. :p

There'sa big difference between having an atomic bomb and getting it exactly where you want it to blow up. India, maybe. Isreal? Unikely. America? I don't really think it's a credible threat.

Unless it's smuggled into the country in a crate of Wal-mart goods. :p
CIA under Tennent, I believe, issued a report stating that the most likely way the US would be attacked with nuclear weapons would be by cargo ship, cargo plane or train. That means that we're more likely to be hit by a terrorist nuke than by a nuke launched by another nation. Pakistan's nukes falling into Al Quaeda's hands would guarantee this.

There'sa big difference between having an atomic bomb and getting it exactly where you want it to blow up. India, maybe. Isreal? Unikely. America? I don't really think it's a credible threat.

Unless it's smuggled into the country in a crate of Wal-mart goods. :p

So nuclear war doesnt matter so long as its only browns that die? Brilliant.

I would gues that india and pakistan will probably nuke the Kashmir region.. but that is about it they both have very few warheads, and is probably acting as the biggest deterrant for all out war in the region, It would be the same as stating that because the Soviet Union had nuclear weapons that nuclear war was inevitable..

and despite the over exagerated yield claims by both Pakistan and India, I doubt either would do anything as they have a few too many Chinamen in the wings.

Biggest Nuclear threat in my opinion would be those incredibly tolerant people neighbouring the Arab states,

So nuclear war doesnt matter so long as its only browns that die? Brilliant.

Not true. Nuclear war doesn't matter as long as it's people far away that die, the radiation can't reach me and there's no chance of reprisals. Color is irrelevant. :p

If Musharraf is ever removed from power it seems likely to me that the Bin Laden sympathizers in his nation will take over and will inherit his nuclear arsenal.



This is of course assuming that the US won't swoop in and institute the leadership of their choice. Under the guise of a democratic election, of course.

This is of course assuming that the US won't swoop in and institute the leadership of their choice. Under the guise of a democratic election, of course.

Duh! Pakistan has no oil, they'll send us Brits to do it :p

This is of course assuming that the US won't swoop in and institute the leadership of their choice. Under the guise of a democratic election, of course.
Yeah, that would be much better for the whole world, but if we don't then I don't think we'll be able to avoid nuclear war.

There'sa big difference between having an atomic bomb and getting it exactly where you want it to blow up. India, maybe. Isreal? Unikely. America? I don't really think it's a credible threat.

Unless it's smuggled into the country in a crate of Wal-mart goods. :p

I doubt they'd want to nuke India, at such close range the radiation (not to mention India's nukes) would really screw up their country.

As for Israel, IIRC Jerusalem is a holy city for Muslims so they won't want to destroy it. Also, they want to get Israel back, not turn it into a desert of fused glass.

I guess they could smuggle one into America but if a radical Islamic theocracy took power then you can bet your life that every Pakistani inport is going to be closely monitered by the CIA and the FBI.

All in all, I don't think it's too likely.

I hope against hope that there will never be a nuclear war.
There is no possible gain for either India or Pakistan to attack each other in this way, surely. A nuclear attack on either would cripple the attacker too...
As for Israel, the US, or the UK (you forgot us... remember we're the "Little Satan to the US' "Great Satan" according to the Guardian Council of Iran) we would just fire back and destroy whatever is standing in Pakistan. Still... it's possible... Islamic Extremists, like all extremists, don't care about the consequences their actions would have on their own people. That's why they are so dangerous ...

My scenario would involve radical islamists in the Al Quaeda mold taking over Pakistan. Do you think those types actually care if there is a nuclear counterattack from the US, India or Israel? They're suicide terrorists. They're active accross national borders. If Pakistan is destroyed by a counterattack their cells in other nations would just use it as propaganda. "Look at the bloodthirsty, murderous west slaughtering the faithfull in Pakistan!"

I think you're overstating the problem of the Islamist extremist networks in Pakistan. One of the reason they're so violent and militant is because they DON'T have general popular support - I have serious doubts they could really gain control, save by Trojan-Horsing another, more moderate-appearing political party (which, I should note, is exactly what happened in the last free elections there - he policies the government put in place bore little or no relationship to the policies they'd been elected on).

Provided nutcases on either side (yes, there most certainly are Hindu extremists in India) don't push the button, both sides having Nukes could easily be more of a stabilising influence. It would be the same as the MAD doctrine in the Cold War - neither side will push it because they know, not suspect but know, that ultimately they will lose.

If you can't win and can't draw, the only logical choice is to not play the game.

You mean they'd got to all the trouble of building a nuke and immediately give it away to a pack of incompetents?

It's more likely that they'd hit the US themselves, rather than trust a third party. I mean, it would get the same reaction.

So the nuke would be smuggled in by special forces types rather than terrorists. Or brought in a diplomatic bag, peace-maker style.

You mean they'd got to all the trouble of building a nuke and immediately give it away to a pack of incompetents?

It's more likely that they'd hit the US themselves, rather than trust a third party. I mean, it would get the same reaction.

So the nuke would be smuggled in by special forces types rather than terrorists. Or brought in a diplomatic bag, peace-maker style.

It's kind of hard to fit a thousand pound nuke in a diplomatic bag.

:p

Actually, I think Oppenheimer made nuclear war inevitable.

A thousand pounds? Try ten times that. We are talking first generation nukes here, after all.

A thousand pounds? Try ten times that. We are talking first generation nukes here, after all.

I just pulled that figure out of my ass. I'm not a nuke sexpert.

A thousand pounds? Try ten times that. We are talking first generation nukes here, after all.

Diplomatic crate?

It's kind of hard to fit a thousand pound nuke in a diplomatic bag.

:p
And if they weighed a thousand pounds you'd be right.

Even if they did it would be possible to put one in a shipping container or on a cargo plane.

Diplomatic crate?

Diplomatic container ship container.

I just pulled that figure out of my ass. I'm not a nuke sexpert.
I don't think the guy who said ten thousand pounds is either. Basically all you've got is 15 to 20 KG of fissile material, some conventional explosives, let's be generous and say 200 KG worth, and a precise detonation system along with batteries that blows the conventional explosive up in just the right way to compress the core properly. Let's say with batteries that would weigh 50 KG. That's less than 1000 pounds. Way short of 10,000

Table of Pakistani Nuclear Forces, 2002
Notes



missiles
Type/Designation range (KM) Payload (KG) Comment

Ghauri I (hatf-5) 1,300-1,500 500-700 Basically N.Korean No Dong missile
Ghauri II (hatf-6) 2,000-2,300 750-1000 test fired April 14, 1999

http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datab21.asp

Neither of those missiles could lift a 10,000 pound (4,545 KG) warhead.

Actually, the US's first nukes (Manhattan Project products) weighed a fragload MORE than 10 000 pounds. I'm assuming that the Pakistani physicists used fairly modern techniques and materials.

What you're forgetting about is A) making a precision detonating device isn't by any means all that easy and B) shielding. Today, the US, France, Great Britain and Russia could all undoubtedly build "briefcase bombs" with the same yield (or more) than Fat Man or Little Boy, but I doubt anyone else could.

Actually, the US's first nukes (Manhattan Project products) weighed a fragload MORE than 10 000 pounds. I'm assuming that the Pakistani physicists used fairly modern techniques and materials.

What you're forgetting about is A) making a precision detonating device isn't by any means all that easy and B) shielding. Today, the US, France, Great Britain and Russia could all undoubtedly build "briefcase bombs" with the same yield (or more) than Fat Man or Little Boy, but I doubt anyone else could.
A shipping container could carry several Pakistani nuclear warheads. One detonating in NY harbor could cause quite alot of damage and loss of life.

Certainly. But it would need a shipping container.

Drunk commies deleted

Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's leader, has made Pakistan into a nuclear power.

Nah man. Zia Ul Huq made Pakistan into a nuclear power....while the US chose to be blind to this pursuit. The assurance was that the nukes would only be targetting India and you know the whole "its OK if those damned commie sympathasing brown people die" thing..

The US could not have supplied arms and money to Pakistan for the jihad war in Afghanistan until the president could assure the congress that Pakistan was not pursuing nukes. Reagan knew they were pursuing and lied to the congress to get the Afghan war on and poke at the Soviets.

Well...like every shortsighted moves made for the sake of expediency..this one backfired too.

here's a hilarious take in this

http://media.putfile.com/photochor

If Musharraf is ever removed from power it seems likely to me that the Bin Laden sympathizers in his nation will take over and will inherit his nuclear arsenal. With it they will inevitably target the US, India, and Israel. Possibly European nations as well.

So has Musharraf made a nuclear war inevitable?

Nah. I am sure that Musharraf successor has already been chosen and the Pakistani nukes are already under American lock and key. There are even allegations that there is American presence in nuke sites.

If Mushy gets assassinated/coup by wannabes/revolution by beards ...the nukes would be taken care of. So don't worry.

Rice said in so many words to Kerry on some debate "We have plans in place to take care of such a situation".

Lunatic Goofballs
India, maybe. Isreal? Unikely. America? I don't really think it's a credible threat.

Well, to be blunt, you don't really think much.

In 2001 - a Pakistani was caught trying to cross from Jordan into Israel with something that was variously described as "a dirty bomb" or "a backpack nuke".

During an American search they found nuke designs in an AQ safehouse. Two Pakistani scientists made lot of visits to AFG and met OBL a lot of times, presumably not to discuss the weather. They have not been questioned still.

AQKhan is a card carrying proud member of LeT which is under the umbrella organization of UJC headed by AQ. He has also not been questioned yet.

Daniel Pearl was killed when he got close to a trail leading to some of this stuff. His killer, Omar Sheikh has also not been questioned yet.

I am sad to see that the lessons of 9/11 have not been learned yet.

When these terrorists hijacked IC-814 (an Indian plane) from Nepal to Kandahar and had Masood Azhar (the head of JeM) and Omar Sheikh (the one mentioned above) released in exchange for hosteges, no one took notice. The thinking was like.."oh those brown people in some far away land... I don't really think they are a credible threat"....

Well, guess what, Omar Sheikh was the guy who wired $100K to Mohd Atta and I bet he is a co-conspirator in 9/11.

You don't think that he is not a credible threat anymore right?

When the f*** will y'all realise that we are in this together?:rolleyes:

Drunk commies deleted


Nah man. Zia Ul Huq made Pakistan into a nuclear power....while the US chose to be blind to this pursuit. The assurance was that the nukes would only be targetting India and you know the whole "its OK if those damned commie sympathasing brown people die" thing..

The US could not have supplied arms and money to Pakistan for the jihad war in Afghanistan until the president could assure the congress that Pakistan was not pursuing nukes. Reagan knew they were pursuing and lied to the congress to get the Afghan war on and poke at the Soviets.

Well...like every shortsighted moves made for the sake of expediency..this one backfired too.

here's a hilarious take in this

http://media.putfile.com/photochor



Nah. I am sure that Musharraf successor has already been chosen and the Pakistani nukes are already under American lock and key. There are even allegations that there is American presence in nuke sites.

If Mushy gets assassinated/coup by wannabes/revolution by beards ...the nukes would be taken care of. So don't worry.

Rice said in so many words to Kerry on some debate "We have plans in place to take care of such a situation".

Lunatic Goofballs


Well, to be blunt, you don't really think much.

In 2001 - a Pakistani was caught trying to cross from Jordan into Israel with something that was variously described as "a dirty bomb" or "a backpack nuke".

During an American search they found nuke designs in an AQ safehouse. Two Pakistani scientists made lot of visits to AFG and met OBL a lot of times, presumably not to discuss the weather. They have not been questioned still.

AQKhan is a card carrying proud member of LeT which is under the umbrella organization of UJC headed by AQ. He has also not been questioned yet.

Daniel Pearl was killed when he got close to a trail leading to some of this stuff. His killer, Omar Sheikh has also not been questioned yet.

I am sad to see that the lessons of 9/11 have not been learned yet.

When these terrorists hijacked IC-814 (an Indian plane) from Nepal to Kandahar and had Masood Azhar (the head of JeM) and Omar Sheikh (the one mentioned above), no one took notice. The thinking was like.."oh those brown people in some far away land... I don't really think they are a credible threat"....

Well, guess what, Omar Sheikh was the guy who wired $100K to Mohd Atta and I bet he is a co-conspirator in 9/11.

You don't think that he is not a credible threat anymore right?

When the f*** will y'all realise that we are in this together?:rolleyes:
Thanks for the info. I really should have double checked who was in charge of Pakistan when they went nuclear. Also thanks for setting my mind a little more at ease.

Yeah, we are all in this together. Some of us get it.