NationStates Jolt Archive

Everyone is buzzing about China's growing power. There is no doubt in my mind that China will be more powerful then than it will be in fifty years. It will certainly be a gigantic economy. But its manufacturing growth is unsustainable without political reforms, which I don't think will come easy. At the very worse, the nation may divide on the issue, as it has many times before.
The US will be very powerful, and the newly bilingual country may have a greater role in Latin America, possible even absorbing some latin republics. But it will not have the unfettered global supremacy it does today not because of any challenger to its power, but because more nations will be powerful enough to control their own regions.
Europe, I suspect, will not federate. Instead, there will be a slavic federation and a Western Europe federation, with an independent Britain weaving between the two. All will have good relations with eachother, but Eastern Europe, with less pension obligations and a more entrepenuerial society, will surpass the West economically, and probably militarily. All will be affected by a population decline, though if Turkey is intergrated into Europe enough, it may help offset this imbalance. Britain will also start to become very powerful again as it concerns itself less with the continent, moving on to bigger world affairs.
Russia will align with China if it goes down its autocratic path, and the oligarchs will make the economy grow. Russia's politics, in fact, will continue to be a contest between them and the nationalists (the communists should have died out by then). Its rapid population problem will not just be bothersome, but potentially lethal, causing Russia to loose its grip on Eastern republics and the Caucasus. It is here that I see the next security threat to the world, and it may end in balkanization.
The Middle East will cease to be a problem. Every nation will have democratized by then, diversified the economy away from oil, and will be at peace with Israel simply because they see no point in fighting them.
The prize for most powerful, however, will have to go to India. India is booming not just because of its size, but also because of its endless brainpower. It is also a stable democracy, and has been reforming to diversify its economy even further. It will have made peace with Pakistan, and will have developed a significant presence in the Middle East, both to protect fossil fuels (India may be the world's biggest consumer then) and guest workers backing their economies. It's closest sattelite state, Bangladesh, will grow in tandem, especially if India needs Bangladesh's water. And remember, India will have a larger population than China, which will be going through one of the worst demographic crises in history.
So, what do you think?

There will be no more oil by 2056 so no one will have any kind of power whatsoever!

Unless we can get either Cold Fusion or some other type of environmentally-friendly power to work, then I think the title of "Most Powerful" will be a Quartet Tie between China, USA, European Union, and India with nations like Great Britian, Canada, Quebec (they will have broken away from Canada by then) and Russia running as Referees.

There will be no more oil by 2056 so no one will have any kind of power whatsoever!

Unless we can get either Cold Fusion or some other type of environmentally-friendly power to work, then I think the title of "Most Powerful" will be a Quartet Tie between China, USA, European Union, and India with nations like Great Britian, Canada, Quebec (they will have broken away from Canada by then) and Russia running as Referees.
If there is less oil by that time, that should heat up competition by other states. But I think that there will be a diversification of energy sources, and oil will be replaced by natural gas as a dominant fuel. Wind will be very big, too.

Since oil is gonna be running out, I would guess it's the nation with the most coal and natural gas. If I remeber corectly, that would be the U.S. of A.

Not to mention the fact that if it came down to a war over oil, we all know who would win that. ;)

By 2056, The Zimbabwean Empire will have the rest of the globe in a chokehold.

I'd have to disagree on India. They've got some gigantic problems, like a steadily decaying infrastructure, a looming power crisis, and a very discriminating and protectionist government that resist foreign investment and give their companies unfair advantages.

If they reform themselves, rebuild their infrastructure and open up to free trade, I think they'll become a major power; they've already got the democracy and there is a well established technology sector comprised of native Indian talent rather than offshored jobs from US and European companies (unlike China, whose growth is almost entirely dependent on foreign investment).

India and China will be the two competitors in Asia, with Russia the natural-resource powerhouse of the region. I imagine there will be a huge free-trade/economic cooperation zone comprising the US and the Asian nations which would likely serve as a counterweight to an EU that includes Russia. The world will be grouped along economic blocs rather than individual nations.

The US will still be powerful and will remain one of the world leaders, with Canada being vital as a source of energy products along with Mexico. South America is up in the air, with perhaps a regional leader in the form of Brazil. Africa may or may not improve its situation by then, or it could still be locked in its current situation.

Since oil is gonna be running out, I would guess it's the nation with the most coal and natural gas. If I remeber corectly, that would be the U.S. of A.

Not to mention the fact that if it came down to a war over oil, we all know who would win that. ;)

While the rest of the developed world by 2056 will have technology that doesn't rely on obsolete fuel sources.

By 2056, The Zimbabwean Empire will have the rest of the globe in a chokehold.

N000000000000000000000000000000!!!

Man, You Know It, I Know It, We All Know It. China WILL Be The First Ruler Of The Entire Earth.

While the rest of the developed world by 2056 will have technology that doesn't rely on obsolete fuel sources.
As will we. Have you seen the new HMMV replacement? It's a hybrid.;)

Since oil is gonna be running out, I would guess it's the nation with the most coal and natural gas. If I remeber corectly, that would be the U.S. of A.
I think you might be forgetting a couple (http://www.hubbertpeak.com/images/cam17sm.gif) of things. (http://www.earthsci.org/teacher/basicgeol/fossil_fuels/world-oil-reserves.jpg) The US will be running low way before many other countries.

"The United States is perhaps the most vulnerable to the coming crisis having farther to fall after the boom years, which themselves were largely driven by foreign debt and inward investment." Dr. Colin Campbell, Ph. D. (http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/)

And a war over oil... You think that would be tolerated by other nations? That no nation might see it as a possibility and would jump in to defend another nation under attack to get an excuse to go to war, most likely with allies?

Well I would think that it would be the US because when you realy get aound all of the Newsweek articles that are at the best misleading and the other toothsayers the dollar will always be better for the investors and GE will always be the biggest company in the world.

New Zealand, clearly.. :rolleyes:

I think because of the massive population, China will be pretty fuckin' powerful.

I'm sticking with the tiny Republic of Togo, like I always do on these threads. Some day, we'll all march to the Togoan's drum. You'll see.

I think you might be forgetting a couple (http://www.hubbertpeak.com/images/cam17sm.gif) of things. (http://www.earthsci.org/teacher/basicgeol/fossil_fuels/world-oil-reserves.jpg) The US will be running low way before many other countries.

"The United States is perhaps the most vulnerable to the coming crisis having farther to fall after the boom years, which themselves were largely driven by foreign debt and inward investment." Dr. Colin Campbell, Ph. D. (http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/)

And a war over oil... You think that would be tolerated by other nations? That no nation might see it as a possibility and would jump in to defend another nation under attack to get an excuse to go to war, most likely with allies?

If your nation is officially endorsed by God, as The U.S. clearly is, you don't let silly things like facts and logic get in the way!

If your nation is offically endorsed by God, as The U.S. clearly is, you don't let silly things like facts and logic get in the way!

The oil peak hasn't been proven yet. If anything, there is plenty of oil in non-liquid sources, and enough natural gas, coal, and bitumen to supply our energy needs in petrochemicals. If we switch over to nuclear power and renewables for our power needs and hybrid vehicles, there won't be any problems.

Doesn't matter. We'll all have been assimilated by then.

http://img302.imageshack.us/img302/7272/seven1qf.png (http://imageshack.us)

Federated Europe, ok. :rolleyes:
It's impossible for them to co-live under one leadership. Not to mention languages. What would be a universal language? Esperanto?

Quebec will not be separate from Canada. They dont have the resources or the work ethic to survive on their own. The economy sucks, apparently, when separate from the rest of Canada.

India, if they reform, should be the most powerful. China may have and endless army, but even now they are facing protests over the gov't.

I Dont think most of these nations will still exist by then

What makes everybody think that it'll be a nation that exists today?

In 2056, Goofballia will be the last remaining superpower. :)

The whole question is moot anyway, since something is going to happen in 2012 to make everything change; a paradigm shift of some sort, it seems.

Doesn't matter. We'll all have been assimilated by then.

http://img302.imageshack.us/img302/7272/seven1qf.png (http://imageshack.us)
Hey! She can assimilate me anytime! :D

The whole question is moot anyway, since something is going to happen in 2012 to make everything change; a paradigm shift of some sort, it seems.

Terrence McKenna's Time Wave Zero?

The whole question is moot anyway, since something is going to happen in 2012 to make everything change; a paradigm shift of some sort, it seems.

Regional blocs will be the norm in another 50 years.

Far easter bloc headed by China, South Asian bloc headed by India, Latin American bloc headed by Brazil etc will emerge.

The future looks bright except for the possibility that these blocs do not lock themselves into a zero sum game over dwindling resources.

Two words: Alien Invasion.

We'l all be pwned before we can truly find out. *puts on tin foil hat*

Hey! She can assimilate me anytime! :D



Me too. See you in the Collective, Eut. :D

Europe, I suspect, will not federate.
I'd probably agree, although 50 years is a lot of time.

Instead, there will be a slavic federation and a Western Europe federation, with an independent Britain weaving between the two.
Hardly. If anything, the focus of the EU will shift from the traditional leaders (France and Germany, with the UK coming in from time to time) to a more multilateral leadership that will encompass Eastern Europe.

All will have good relations with eachother, but Eastern Europe, with less pension obligations and a more entrepenuerial society, will surpass the West economically, and probably militarily.
By 2056, if the system in Western Europe hasn't been reformed, it'd be abolished. Not even the French will hang on to something that doesn't work for that long.

All will be affected by a population decline, though if Turkey is intergrated into Europe enough, it may help offset this imbalance. Britain will also start to become very powerful again as it concerns itself less with the continent, moving on to bigger world affairs.
That's a little bit of hopeful jingoism, don't you think? In 50 years, China, India and maybe even Brazil will have middle classes larger than the entire nation of Britain (they probably do already), properly educated and equipped with a lot of funds.
Britain alone won't have anything to offer.

Federated Europe, ok. :rolleyes:
It's impossible for them to co-live under one leadership. Not to mention languages. What would be a universal language? Esperanto?
It works fine with English and a few translators now, right? Language would be the least of the problems when it comes to creating one common government - and most of Europe is bilingual to some degree anyways.

Here is my vision:
http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=10140704&postcount=15

Me too. See you in the Collective, Eut. :D
LOL! I was speaking of a slightly more personal level ... you know, kinda like partially assimilate, but meh! :D

*whilst in a rave* World nation .new world order woot!

yes I said world nation what with globalisation and would you know it I would be 66 :(

hell that’s nearly 50 years it may be a good bet to say Antarctica will rule the world its always the one you least expect;)

assuming we aren't destroyed by the oil crunch, I would say Andorra will be the world's superpower.

Don't see anybody beating out the US in fifty years, although the US has the potential to beat itself.

Canada, most definitely. We're just bidding our time and preparing... no one will see it coming.

Won't you all be surprised when your brutal Micronesian overseers are sending you to the salt mines?

Hopefully, I will have completed Genghis Khan's plans. seriously, I even have plans for it. Grass roots...conquering...

Hopefully, I will have completed Genghis Khan's plans. seriously, I even have plans for it. Grass roots...conquering...
Think, with 6 Billion people, you could build a HUGE pile of skulls.

My Views -

-India may be a World Power

-The Middle East will never turn its views to Democracy. They have been ruled by Islam by too long to let go of it in 51 (nearly 50) years.

-Japan and/or Nations in East Asia are highly likely to be World Powers as well (Japan, Taiwan, Singapore [Southeast Asia] and South Korea)

-Communism won't die. If it has survived since the 1800's, it will not be easy, again, to let go of it in 51 (nearly 50) years.

-The U.S.A will be a Power, but other nations will succeed it.

-China's Political Ideology is only Communist on the surface and on some things, and will stay like that, but China will have some more democratic reforms.

-By 2056, the African Nations developing reforms now will rise.

-An unstable situation in Europe will only be of slight effect. The Western European Nations will rise further, the Eastern European Nations will rise also.

-China and the U.S.A will stay World Powers, but other nations will join the Competition.

Georgia.

I voted other on the basis of theHarlesburg factor!
-Just you wait!*Shakes fist*

If not then i say a Unified Europa under a German hand.

I voted other.

China's current economic growth patterns are unsustainable, and only attained such grand proportions because they were coming from so far behind in the first place. On the other hand, there are one hell of a lot of them, and they also own a grand chunk of the U.S. economy. Tough one, but I foresee it being unforeseeable.

China's current economic growth patterns are unsustainable, and only attained such grand proportions because they were coming from so far behind in the first place. On the other hand, there are one hell of a lot of them, and they also own a grand chunk of the U.S. economy. Tough one, but I foresee it being unforeseeable.
Even if they did become a hel of a lot more powerful any conflict would come before 2056 and i'd bet America would win assuming America did anything.

Hopefully (very hopefully), the U.S of A will not exist anymore or not as it does actually. Otherwise, by the looks of it, it will possibly grow into some kind of corporate fascism, a la Orwell.

As for Europe/China/India, I only hope to see lot of revolutionnary initiatives emerge, to free the workers and comrades from the chains of capitalism.

As for Japan, some kind of powerful quake could happen so the entire country is submerged?

Note: The rapid growth of the chinese economy rather comes from governement-backed very low interest rates, making loans and business initiatives for chinese people easier. Of course, one must know a handful of "officials" to get these... There's foreign interests of course, but less.

(China) manufacturing growth is unsustainable without political reforms.Says Who?

I mean... can you prove that?

Anyone who's choosing US or China here clearly needs their head examined :rolleyes:

Thanks to Bush and his equally retarded successors, the Us will be so totally wrecked that it will have turned into a third-world-country with some ultra-filthy-rich islands strewn all across the country.

China will have had its inevitable collapse (just like Russia) and decomposed into many independent states.

Nations in the general area of Saudi Arabia/Iran/Iraq/etc. will still be too busy getting at each other's ass as that they could become a powerful nation.

Europe will eventually have got together as one big nation vastly outstripping anything else. They will eventually form an alliance with the next most powerful nation, Japan, and possibly also Canada (as long as it doesn't get involved with the US and its downfall).

http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b383/DrkHelmet/162322hMoL_w.jpg

Hmm... the dark side clouds everything.

You want to know what I think? No? Too bad. I think we're going to see the end of the USA as a republic and have it lead by emperors. Of course, the emperors will likely be offspring of Bush and therefore complete idiots. Then the United States will collapse and we'll all go back to the glory days of vassals, lords, and serfs. Won't that be fun?

I think science is going to become increasingly important in the world of tomorrow, so countries like the US, Japan, Russia(If they get their act together), and the main three western european nations(France, Britain, Germany) will be the major powers of the world. I think the US will remain the strongest at this time, although not nearly the hegemony it can proclaim today. The EU will evolve, but not federate europe like many are saying. However, this increased population, trade, and technological collaberation will make them right on America's heels, making them stronger if they all combine(even moreso if new countries join).

Japan will come out very strong after peak oil, so will France. The US will have a recession, a large one. They will be reduced in power greatly once peak oil does happen, unless we get on the ball very soon.

After peak oil, I expect Western europe and China to be the two world powers, in that order.

That's a little bit of hopeful jingoism, don't you think? In 50 years, China, India and maybe even Brazil will have middle classes larger than the entire nation of Britain (they probably do already), properly educated and equipped with a lot of funds.
Britain alone won't have anything to offer.

I didn't mean a new British Empire or something like that. What I do mean is that Britain, with its robust economy, a legacy of diplomatic shrewdness, and its eventual role as a mediator between the US and Europe (and maybe even China) will give it power disproportional to its size.

Says Who?

I mean... can you prove that?
Manufacturing growth is always unsustainable now that there is a healthy services sector. But China's government restricts information and has poor patent and copywright laws. Unless such hurdles can be overcome, growth cannot go on forever, though the economic run was certainly good while it lasted.

After peak oil, I expect Western europe and China to be the two world powers, in that order.
China is one of the most energy intensive economies on earth.

Without thinking im saying: The European union (Also known as E.U), because lots of things can happen in 50 years, just look from 1900-1950, what happen?

Yes, your are rigth, 2 world wars, and 2 gigantic super powers struckling after useless Atomic bombs/missils!

I will guess that the E.U have solved some of there problems, they will allowed Turkey to join, and other contries will have joined too.

I think if Norway, Swenden and Denmark join together to the Kalmar Union again they would be stronger both, political, millitary and lots of ofther things, and if they did that, then they would be in the E.U it would be better for them. I think Norway will change there mind about not being in the E.U

Also all the contries in the European union should only have 1 currency: the Euro - € -!

I also belive that India/China will have some power for a while, but then a power sick dictator will take the power and declear war, and then the E.U and U.S.A will figth them and by some luck (which means WITHOUT a lie Bush:rolleyes: !) will win!

Says Who?
I mean... can you prove that?

You can look at the fact that there is almost no profitable native Chinese manufacturing; almost all of it comes from foreign sources. The same is true of their entire economy; they aren't innovating domestically but are dependant on the export sector for their growth.

At the same time, they aren't contributing any real advances technologically; unless they start developing a home-grown service/high tech manufacturing economy, their growth will eventually halt and painfully at that. India's developing its own, home grown technology which will ensure at least some of its growth is sustainable.

Don't forget China's got a poor-country economy with a rich-country age structure. They've got one hell of a demographic crisis ahead, unlike India.

i think the middle east.. and to be precise the Arab World can be a powerefull nation if they ever get a grip of themselves and get a real democracy... and already reforms are being made in all overthe arab world.. ( and this is not becuase of MR bush's invasion of iraq, for all of those pro-war)

The Arab citizens of 22 nations... all wish to unite...but unlucky for them and good for the USA and other powers, they have really bad dictators, but after 11 september, the leaders of the arab world now feal threatened from the Islamists terrorists..

so reforms started, with the Saudis having there first elections of governerates, same to Qatar, Jordan and Morocco, while in egypt, where the real progress really came there, the first elections where a president competes with other candidates have occured, evenm if they were mostly cheated for the current president Mubarak, but its a start, hes 70 something and he wont live for ever... Sudan has finally starting to become peacefull, Algeria and palestine same thing starting to settle a little, and iraq will eventually regain its strenght easily, and befor the 11 setember 8 billion dollars poored from the oil rich states to invest in the USA, but now after the USA made it hard for them, they are starting to invest in neughboring arab countries, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Morocco, have all been moved to a second world nations.. as for libya, well thats a beuty (even tho there leader. qadafi, is a freak...) they are improving RAPIDLY... Tourism has increased 85% in the last years. and inner cooperation within arab nations have all doubled annually, since the september 11...

the only thing the region needs now a good organization, (hopefully the arab league) to get them going better, and now with ths year, after the fisrt arab freezone trade agreement AFTA, has been made, cooperation between the nations grew... but with beurocracy it hasnt increased much... hopefully the problems will cease soon between nations, to become a GREAT region between the world.

the resources the Arab States have all togerther...
314 million citizen, 60% youth... good labor...and good manpower
2 million fertile lands in Sudan alone, able to feed all 300 million annually, with enaugh exports...

oil.. (for all of those who really beleive it will end soon... its said that around 20% of the oil reserves have been found in the region, while sudan is expecting a million barelles per year, with an undiscovered land full of resources, Morocco, Dubai,Egypt and Lebanon still hold the highest tourism in the area with about 20 million all together...

but expected to increase soon...
what i mean is,.. maybethe Arab States will not be a super power by 2056, but im definet that it will be one of the expceted superpowers in this century... and im saying so since i live in the region ,, and have traveled alot... in side the region.. and outside, china, europe...

It will be China, even though India will have a larger population.

It will be China, even though India will have a larger population.

China's growth is unstable. India's isn't, and India is innovating on its own and starting companies while China is dependent on foreign investment for its entire economy.

China's growth is unstable. India's isn't, and India is innovating on its own and starting companies while China is dependent on foreign investment for its entire economy.

then what about Lenovo purchased IBM's PC division? isn't Lenovo a chinese company? have you ever been to China? how do you know that China is ONLY dependent on foreign investment for its entire economy?

Federated Europe, ok. :rolleyes:
It's impossible for them to co-live under one leadership. Not to mention languages. What would be a universal language? Esperanto?

Easy. Latin. It's worked before, it can work again. :)

Microsoft

Mexico.

You even have mexicans working in restaurants in Chinatown now. It's only a matter of time before they control the world economy.

That's a little bit of hopeful jingoism, don't you think? In 50 years, China, India and maybe even Brazil will have middle classes larger than the entire nation of Britain (they probably do already), properly educated and equipped with a lot of funds.
Britain alone won't have anything to offer.


There have always been richer more populus nations than Britian; and there always will be. The british aren't particularly hardworking either.

What the british always have been good at is being able to more quickly and easily adapt to major changes than other nations - and exploit them. The British are also extremely clever at playing major powers off against one another to further their own goals. It's made them consistently more powerful than they ever should have been. I can't see that changing.

There have always been richer more populus nations than Britian; and there always will be. The british aren't particularly hardworking either.

What the british always have been good at is being able to more quickly and easily adapt to major changes than other nations - and exploit them. The British are also extremely clever at playing major powers off against one another to further their own goals. It's made them consistently more powerful than they ever should have been. I can't see that changing.

That's a good point. It could be argued that the UK is the one Western country left which has a truly global perspective (at least from the business/political viewpoint-don't get me started on the Daily Mail....). However, Britain, particularly England is going through a bit of a navel gazing period at the moment. How we come out of that will determine Britain and the UK's progress over the next 50 years a great deal-at least as far as further European cooperation is concerned.

A nation started in 2010 will become the most powerful.

Usa

In histroy class, I was asked a similar question for a short-answer for a test. I ended up thinking about it in another class, and started writing. this is still a rough draft, and i haven't changed it since, so please, don't be too harsh.

HIST 1302.010

Who will Own the 21st Century?

In the near future; corporate networks reach to the stars. Energy and light flow throughout the universe. The advance of computerization, however, has not yet wiped out nations and ethnic groups.
Ghost in the Shell
The empires of the future of will be the empires of the mind.
-Winston Churchill

With the advent of the Information Age, who would control the world in the way the United States controlled the Twentieth Century? The closest candidates would be those countries that develop and expand the technologies necessary for the future of information. At this time, it would seem that the developed world would once again battle for dominance, but who has the greatest advantage? America: with its economical and industrial muscle expanding into vast markets; Japan, the leader for computer and technological advancement; China, who is catching up with the competing West?
What we fail to realize is that with the continual exchange of information and data, things such as nationality are obsolete. In a way, it is a new type of race war. A war not determined by skin color or creed, but by what you know and how quickly you can share it with others. As the quote from the anime classic Ghost in the Shell illustrates, this will not happen quickly. For the most part, the century will be ruled by competing “Spheres of Influence,” culminating in a social system unrealized and unnamed at this time.
But will there be actual ownership in this brave new world? How can centralized control exist in a vast integrated network? For, with the merging of thought and consciousness towards coalescence, we lose that which makes us individual. The “synchronization” of thought makes the individual self irrelevant. This brings about stagnation in human thought, while at the same time, making the human race a cooperative collective. Even now, how many thoughts are individually unique, without influence from the countless philosophers and intellectuals from our past?
So again we ask, where does this control originate? From the corporate networks, the one’s responsible for interlinking the flow of thought? Hardly: History has taught us that corporations may wield influence, but direct control is out of their grasp. Would national governments control it? Not likely. Governments may be able to regulate or restrict the sharing of information (Sometimes forcibly), but cannot completely suppress anything to a definable degree.
Could control lie in the hands of those using it? Perhaps: As aforementioned, with the merging of thought, the individual self is destroyed, lending to the creation of a single-minded society. Will the future hold a Marxist-like society, then? No, perhaps not. Even with synchronized thought, there is an inherent trait to help restore individuality. The continuing need for the mind to be stimulated, to ask questions, the inherent curiosity of the world in which we exist. (Ghost in the Shell)
More than likely, the world will be the domain of a single entity. Whether it is a singular consciousness or a highly-integrated country in control of information, is relative to the actions of today. The technological developments of the next twenty years will determine which course the world takes.

China is one of the most energy intensive economies on earth.

If I were to have to justify it, I would say because of their populace, and possible ability to pull a russia(force their population to create the structures, etc, to adapt to life after peak oil quickly). However, I believe I meant to say japan, as Eurore(especially france) and japan have been working on major, non-oil power sources, such as that new type of nuclear reactor that recently got chosen to be built in France.